North Atlantic Fire Science Exchange (Guest Lecture) Flashcards
Fire risk triangle
Susceptibility: hazard + exposure + resources
Fire probability could double by the end of the century
Considerations:
* High emissions
* 125% increase
* Future: 2070-2099
* Underestimates the role of
precipitation
* Very Very low to very low
Very large fires projections uncertain
Considerations:
* High emissions
* Future: 2040-2069
* Very very low historical
observations means
not enough data for
the models
Climate changes in the Northeast
- Warmer winters
- Warmer nighttime temperatures (esp. in winter)
- Earlier snowmelt and leaf-out
- Longer growing season
- Increased precipitation
- Greater rainfall intensity
- Sea level rise
- Average Northeast temps have increased 3.5F since early 1900s
- Winters are warming faster than other seasons
- Growing seasons have increased by 14 days since 1985
- Summer rain has increased .44 in per decade since 1960, warming temps = slower storms and heavier rainfall
- Extreme events have been increasing 50-100% since 1958
More rain and drought?
Meteorological drought: Dry
weather conditions
Hydrologic drought: When water supplies are depleted
Agricultural drought: When
crops or livestock are negatively affected
Flash drought: intensifies rapidly with increases in evapotranspiration and decreases in soil moisture
Drought in the Northeast
- Isn’t decreasing as much as might be expected with increased precipitation
- Hydrologic intensification
Increased variation in evaporation - Drought frequency has decreased
- Drought intensity and duration are the same
- Dry days are decreasing in the Northeast
Changing Characteristics of
Snow, Precipitation, and
Drought in the Northeast U.S.
Precipitation: Increase in winter and spring and heavy precipitation events
Dry periods: No clear regional change
Snowpack: Days with snow on the ground in February are decreasing
Snowfall: Decrease across the region though some increase in northeastern New England
