Northern Ireland leave the UK? Flashcards
Survey data shows growing support for Irish unification
The latest finding, based on 1,405 people surveyed in late 2022, now finds that 45 percent of people think Northern Ireland will no longer be in the U.K. 20 years from now.
The Northern Ireland life and times survey found that only 48% of respondents supported the union in 2021, this is down from 54% in 2020.
66% of people in Northern Ireland according to twin polls taken by the Irish Times wanted to join with Northern Ireland as a union.
Growth of Sinn Fein
The opening section of Sinn Féin’s manifesto that year was clear “Sinn Féin is a United Ireland party. Our core political objective is to achieve Irish Unity.”
In the May 2022 election, Sinn Fein won 27 seats and became the largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly, making it the first nationalist party to do so in the country’s history.
Sinn Fein lead by Michelle O’Neill won 144 seats in 2023 local elections, winning 30.9% of the the total.
Importantly 2023 marked the first time that nationalist parties had garnered a greater share of the vote than the unionist parties in local elections.
The DUP on the other hand have been losing seats and popularity since BREXIT, they lost 10 in 2017 and another 3 in 2022.
Brexit impact
Unexpected trade outcome of BREXIT, 56% of the northern Ireland population voted against leaving the EU, there wishes were not met, leading to discontent with the union.
The annual NI life and times survey found that 63 percent, up 5 points from two years ago – thinks Brexit has made unification more likely in any time frame.
Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson negotiated a “Northern Ireland Protocol” as part of his Brexit deal, which granted a special trading status, with provision for customs checks on goods that entered or left Britain via Ulster, while retaining free movement across the Irish border.
However the protocol was not delivered as hoped, leaving to great disagreement with the unionist party and the UK government, Fall out with the Northern Ireland protocol is important. Peter Hain attacked Boris Johnson on the issue, saying, ‘The prime minister ignores Northern Ireland at his peril and he has done so consistently now throughout his premiership’
Economic benefits
Difference with Scotland, as a northern Ireland independence from the UK would not just mean a independent northern Ireland but instead a union with the rest of Ireland, meaning that they have less economic issues to think about. In fact there would be numerous economic benefits of a united Ireland.
Productivity boosts, Northern Ireland has struggled with productivity, it has failed to recover since 2008 and has sat 17% below the UK average, in contrast Ireland has ranked as one of the worlds most productive countries.
For example there are arguments that the Republics economy is becoming increasingly centred around Dublin, resulting in congestion, high house prices and over burdened public services, the introduction of Belfast could reduce this problem.
Legal basis in which they wont leave
The Northern Ireland Act 1998, provides that Northern Ireland will remain within the United Kingdom unless a majority of the people vote to form part of a united Ireland.
Article 3.1 of the Constitution of Ireland “recognises that a united Ireland shall be brought about only by peaceful means with the consent of a majority of the people, democratically expressed, in both jurisdictions in the island”. This means that a successful refferendum is the only means of Irish unification.
Survey data showing they wont leave
Currently survey data and polling shows us that this is not necessarily the case, The Irish Times published twin polls conducted by the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in late 2022. The results show that Northern Ireland would remain part of the UK, with only 27% choosing to unify with The Republic of Ireland.
The life and times survey found that currently there is a 7 point lead for Northern Ireland remaining part of the UK should any vote take place.
The Times when on to suggest that while majority of voters on both sides of the border were in favour of having a referendum on the unification of the island, but the gulf between voters in the two states seems to be wider than first thought. Of those polled in the Republic, 66% would support unification with Northern Ireland, more than twice the number among voters north of the border.
Economic costs
Economic costs to the Republic, for example the increasing cost for the republic, A report by Trinity College Dublin in 2019 claims that reunification in the next five to ten years would cost the Republic of Ireland as much as30bn euros per year
There is concern that Belfast may lose out to Dublin and other Irish cities in a united Ireland. One of Belfast’s main selling points for investors is its lower operating costs compared to the rest of the UK. A united Ireland therefore is expected to drive up business costs, this could therefore reduce Northern Ireland’s investment attractiveness and result in falling FDI.
