other factors affecting VB Flashcards
incumbency
the individual currently in office
advantages of incumbency
In presidential elections where one of the candidates is the
incumbent, this tends to give an advantage:
Since Reagan only 2 incumbent was defeated (George
Bush Sr. 1992 loss to Clinton); Reagan, Clinton,
George W. Bush and Obama all won two terms. Presidents can serve a maximum of 2 terms (since the 22nd
Amendment (1951)) – that means only one re-election.
incumbency in congress
Nancy Pelosi (Democrat, California) was first elected as
Representative in 1986. She has been re-elected 18 times - no term limit
disadvantages of incumbency
Incumbents don’t always win
advantages of incumbency factors
familiarity
positive track record
no expense/damaging primaries
familiarity
Susan Collins 2020 re-election as Senator in Democrat-voting Maine
positive track record
Obama’s bailout of the
car industry won the
Rust Belt for him in ‘12
no expensive/damaging primaries
No serious
challenger for
Trump in 2020
(lost only 1
delegate)
incumbency disadvantages - examples
negative track record Trump handling of COVID-19 (39% approval rating)
George H.W. Bush broken 1988 promise not
to raise taxes (‘read my lips’)
anti-establishment mood - Liz Cheney defeated by
Trumpist candidate in 2022 in primaries
AOC’s 2018 primary win
Eric Cantor defeated by Tea Party challenger in
2014 primaries
other factors
incumbency
october surprise
campaign budget
‘October surprise’
There is a considerable amount of undecided voters, who decide last minute. They can be influenced by significant events in the last month of the campaign.
Examples
2020: Trump contracts COVID-19 + Ruth Bader Ginsburg death + New York Times report that Trump paid $750 tax
2016: Access Hollywood tape First, there was the emergence of a 2005 video tape in which Donald Trump made obscene remarks about women, swiftly followed by almost a dozen accusations of groping or sexual assault, all of which he has denied. + FBI Clinton investigation
re-opened (and closed)
EVAL OF october suprise
Most voters have already made up their mind by
October, especially in a context of polarisation. Events in the final weeks can conspire against any election campaign, but political scientists are sceptical whether they make the difference - there’s just too much going on in an election to put a result down to a single event, and by October most voters have made up their minds.
campaign budget
A larger budget = more opportunities to convince
voters
Evidence
In 2020 Biden ($1.4 billion) outspent Trump ($850 million) and won
In all elections since the 1960s the candidate with
the largest campaign budget won (with 2016 exception)
how much was spent on political ads in 2020
$8.5B
states and ads
Looking at the eight most important markets in the eight states (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) crucial to the presidential race, Biden’s ad-spend advantage was overwhelming.
