PANCAKES

Question 1

Objectives in multi-criteria problems seldom conflict.

Answer 1

FALSE

Question 2

Target values will never be met precisely in a goal programming problem.

Answer 2

FALSE

Question 3

Goal equations consist of a function that defines goal achievement and deviation variables that measure the distance from the target.

Answer 3

TRUE

Question 4

There can only be one goal at each priority level.

Answer 4

FALSE

Question 5

To solve a goal programming problem with preemptive priorities, successive linear programming problems, with an adjustment to the objective function and an additional constraint, must be solved.

Answer 5

TRUE

Question 6

If a problem has multiple goals at different priority levels, then usually they can all be achieved.

Answer 6

FALSE

Question 7

For a scoring model, the decision maker evaluates each decision alternative using equally weighted criteria.

Answer 7

FALSE

Question 8

If airline A is moderately preferred to airline B, at a value of 3, then airline B is compared to airline A at a value of -3.

Answer 8

FALSE

Question 9

An item’s priority reveals how it compares to its competitors on a specific criterion.

Answer 9

TRUE

Question 10

The priority matrix shows the priority for each item on each criterion.

Answer 10

TRUE

Question 11

One limitation of a scoring model is that it uses arbitrary weights that do not necessarily reflect the preferences of the individual decision maker.

Answer 11

FALSE

Question 12

A consistency ratio greater than 0.10 indicates inconsistency in the pair-wise comparisons.

Answer 12

TRUE

Question 13

Calculating the priority of each criterion in terms of its contribution to the overall goal is known as developing the hierarchy.

Answer 13

FALSE

Question 14

The goal programming approach can be used when an analyst is confronted with an infeasible solution to an ordinary linear problem.

Answer 14

TRUE

Question 15

A problem involving only one priority level is not considered a goal programming problem.

Answer 15

FALSE

Question 16

A decision with more than one objective
a. cannot have an optimal solution
b. requires the decision maker to place the objectives in some order of importance
c. depends on the probability of satisfying each objective
d. should be decomposed into a separate model for each objective

Answer 16

Requires the decision maker to place the objectives in some order of importance

Question 17

Variables that indicate the distance a target is from the level achieved are called ___________

Answer 17

Deviation variables

Question 18

Preemptive priorities in goal programming
a. show the target values for the problem
b. prevent sacrifice of a goal to satisfy a lower level one
c. force the problem to be a standard linear program
d. limit deviations to d- only

Answer 18

Prevent sacrifice of a goal to satisfy a lower level one

Question 19

Deviation variables that occur in the objective function indicate
a. the targets
b. the priorities
c. only the areas that are of concern
d. the difference between all actual and target values

Answer 19

Only the areas that are of concern

Question 20

The variable d- measures

Answer 20

The amount under the target and is similar to a slack

Question 21

The constraint 5x1+3x2 <= 150 is modified to become a goal equation, and priority one is to avoid overutilization. Which of the following is appropriate?

Answer 21

Min P1d1; 5x1 + 3x2 + d1- - d1+ = 150

Question 22

The goal programming problem with the objective function min P1(d1+) + P2(d2-) is initially solved by the computer and the objective function value is 0. What constraint should be added for the second problem?

Answer 22

d1+ = 0

Question 23

A required step in the analytic hierarchy process is to determine
a. the goals to be satisfied
b. the expected value of the criteria
c. the relative importance of a set of features based on a criterion
d. how many hierarchies to use

Answer 23

The relative importance of a set of features based on criterion

Question 24

Pair-wise comparisons are used to
a. compare criteria in terms of the overall goal
b. compare choices on each criterion
c. both a and b are true

Answer 24

a. Compare criteria in terms of the overall goal
b. Compare choices on each criterion

Question 25

The overall priorities for decision alternatives a. are the sum of the products of the criterion priority times the priority of the decision alternative with respect to that criterion b. sum to 1 c. indicate what choice is preferred, but do not force that choice to be made d. each of the above is true

Answer 25

a. Are the sum of the products of the criterion priority times the priority of the decision alternative with respect to that criterion b. Sum to 1 c. Indicate what choice is preferred, but do not force that choice to be made

Question 26

The steps of the scoring model include all of the following EXCEPT: a. list the decision-making criteria and assign a weight to each b. develop a pair-wise comparison matrix for each criterion c. rate how well each decision alternative satisfies each criterion d. compute the total score for each decision alternative

Answer 26

Develop a pair-wise compairsion matrix for each criterion

Question 27

Goal programming with preemptive priorities never permits trade-offs between

Answer 27

Goals with different priority levels

Question 28

Inconsistency in the pair-wise judgments is indicated by a consistency ratio that is

Answer 28

Greater than 0.10

Question 29

When using a linear programming approach to solving a goal programming problem, a linear program must be solved for each

Answer 29

Priority level

Question 30

Computing the consistency ratio for a criterion's pair-wise comparison matrix is the next step after

Answer 30

Developing the criterion's priority vector

Question 31

Time series methods a. discover a pattern in historical data and project it into the future b. include cause-effect relationships c. are useful when historical information is not available

Answer 31

a. Discover a pattern in historical data and project it into the future b. Include cause-effect relationships c. Are useful when historical information is not available

Question 32

Gradual shifting of a time series over a long period of time is called

Answer 32

TREND

Question 33

Seasonal components a. cannot be predicted b. are regular repeated patterns c. are long runs of observations above or below the trend line d. reflect a shift in the series over time

Answer 33

Are regular repeated patterns

Question 34

Short-term, unanticipated, and nonrecurring factors in a time series provide the random variability known as

Answer 34

The irregular component

Question 35

The focus of smoothing methods is to smooth

Answer 35

The irregular component

Question 36

Forecast errors

Answer 36

are the differences between actual and forecast values

Question 37

To select a value for a for exponential smoothing a. use a small a when the series varies substantially b. use a large a when the series has little random variability c. use any value between 0 and 1

Answer 37

a. Use a small a when the series varies substantially b. Use a large a when the series has little random variability c. Use any value between 0 and 1

Question 38

Linear trend is calculated as Tt = 28.5 + .75t. The trend projection for period 15 is

Answer 38

39.75

Question 39

The multiplicative model a. uses centered moving averages to smooth the trend fluctuations b. removes trend before isolating the seasonal components c. deseasonalizes a time series by dividing the values by the appropriate seasonal index d. provides a unique seasonal index for each observation of the time series

Answer 39

Deseasonalizes a time seris by dividing the values by the appropriate seasonal index

Question 40

Causal models a. should avoid the use of regression analysis b. attempt to explain a time series' behavior c. do not use time series data

Answer 40

`Attempt to explain a time series' behavior.

Question 41

A qualitative forecasting method that obtains forecasts through "group consensus" is known as the __________

Answer 41

Delphi approach

Question 42

The forecasting method that is appropriate when the time series has no significant trend, cyclical, or seasonal effect is ___________

Answer 42

Moving averages

Question 43

If data for a time series analysis is collected on an annual basis only, which component may be ignored?

Answer 43

Seasonal

Question 44

One measure of the accuracy of a forecasting model is the ________

Answer 44

Mean absolute deviation

Question 45

Which of the following is a qualitative forecasting method?

Answer 45

Delphi method

Question 46

Which of the following forecasting methods puts the least weight on the most recent time series value? a. exponential smooting with a =.3 b. exponential smoothing with a =.2 c. moving average using the most recent 4 periods d. moving average using the most recent 3 periods

Answer 46

Exponential smoothing with a =.2

Question 47

Using exponential smoothing, the demand forecast for time period 10 equals the demand forecast for time period 9 plus

Answer 47

a times (the error in the demand forecast for time period 9)

Question 48

Time series methods base forecasts only on past values of the variables.

Answer 48

TRUE

Question 49

Quantitative forecasting methods do not require that patterns from the past will necessarily continue in the future.

Answer 49

FALSE

Question 50

Trend in a time series must be linear.

Answer 50

FALSE

Question 51

All quarterly time series contain seasonality

Answer 51

FALSE

Question 52

A four-period moving average forecast for period 10 would be found by averaging the values of periods 10, 9, 8, and 7.

Answer 52

FALSE

Question 53

If the random variability in a time series is great, a high a value should be used to exponentially smooth out the fluctuations

Answer 53

FALSE

Question 54

Seasonal components with values over 1.00 indicate actual values below the trend line

Answer 54

FALSE

Question 55

To make period-to-period comparisons more meaningful and identify trend, the time series should be deseasonalized

Answer 55

TRUE

Question 56

With fewer periods in a moving average, it will take longer to adjust to a new level of demand.

Answer 56

FALSE

Question 57

Qualitative forecasting techniques should be applied in situations where time series data exists, but where conditions are expected to change

Answer 57

TRUE

Question 58

For a multiplicative time series model, the sum of seasonal indexes should equal the number of seasons

Answer 58

TRUE

Question 59

A time series model with a seasonal component will always involve quarterly data

Answer 59

FALSE

Question 60

Any recurring sequence of points above and below the trend line lasting less than one year can be attributed to the cyclical component of the time series.

Answer 60

FALSE

Question 61

Smoothing methods are more appropriate for a stable time series than when significant trend and/or seasonal variation are present.

Answer 61

TRUE

Question 62

The exponential smoothing forecast for any period is the weighted average of all the previous actual values for the time series.

Answer 62

TRUE

Question 63

The mean squared error is influenced much more by large forecast errors than by small ones.

Answer 63

TRUE

Question 64

The mean squared error is influenced much more by large forecast errors than by small ones.

Answer 64

TRUE

Question 65

The options from which a decision makers chooses a course of action are: a. called the decision alternatives b. under the control of the decision maker c. not the same as the states of nature

Answer 65

a. called the decision alternatives b. under the control of the decision maker c. not the same as the states of nature

Question 66

This describes uncontrollable natural events such as floods or freezing temperatures.

Answer 66

STATES OF NATURE

Question 67

Exists for each pair of decision alternative and state of nature

Answer 67

PAYOFF

Question 68

Making a good decision: a. requires probabilities for all states of nature b. requires a clear understanding of decision alternatives, states of nature, and payoffs c. implies that a desirable outcome will occur

Answer 68

REQUIRES A CLEAR UNDERSTANDING OF DECISION ALTERNATIVES, STATES OF NATURE, AND PAYOFFS

Question 69

This arranges decision alternatives and states of nature in their natural chronological order

Answer 69

DECISION TREE

Question 70

What method for decision making without probabilities best protects the decision maker from undesirable results?

Answer 70

CONSERVATIVE APPROACH

Question 71

Sensitivity analysis considers:

Answer 71

CHANGES IN THE VALUE OF THE PAYOFFS

Question 72

To find the EVSI:

Answer 72

Use prior and sample information probabilities to calculate revised probabilities

Question 73

If P(high)=.3, P(low)=.7, P(favorable/high)=.9 and P(unfavorable/low) = .6, then P(favorable) =

Answer 73

.55

Question 74

The efficiency of sample information is:

Answer 74

EVSI/EVPI * (100%)

Question 75

Decision tree probabilities refer to:

Answer 75

The probability of an uncertain event occurring

Question 76

For a maximization problem, the conservative approach is often referred to as the:

Answer 76

MAXIMIN APPROACH

Question 77

Sample information with an efficiency rating of 100% is perfect information.

Answer 77

TRUE

Question 78

States of nature should be defined so that one and only one will actually occur.

Answer 78

TRUE

Question 79

Decision alternatives are structured so that several could occur simultaneously.

Answer 79

FALSE

Question 80

Square nodes in a decision treee indicate that a decision must be made.

Answer 80

TRUE

Question 81

Circular nodes in a decision tree indicate that it would be incorrect to choose a path from the node.

Answer 81

TRUE

Question 82

Risk analysis helps the decision maker recognize the difference between the expected value of a decision alternative and the payoff that may actually occur.

Answer 82

TRUE

Question 83

The expected value of an alternative can never be negative.

Answer 83

FALSE

Question 84

Expected value is the sum of the weighted payoff posibilities at a circular node in a decision tree.

Answer 84

TRUE

Question 85

EVPI >= EVSI

Answer 85

TRUE

Question 86

After all probabilities and payoffs are placed on a decision tree, the decision maker calculates expected values at state of nature nodes and makes selections at decision nodes.

Answer 86

TRUE

Question 87

A decision strategy is a sequence of decisions and chance outcomes, where the decisions chosen depend on the yet to be determined outcomes of chance events.

Answer 87

TRUE

Question 88

EVPI equals the expected regret associated with the minimax decision

Answer 88

TRUE

Question 89

PERT and CPM

Answer 89

Have been combined to develop a procedure that uses the best of each

Question 90

Which is not a significant challenge of project scheduling? a. deadlines exist b. activities are independent c. many employees could be required d. delays are costly

Answer 90

ACTIVITIES ARE INDEPENDENT

Question 91

Arcs in a project network indicate:

Answer 91

PRECEDENCE RELATIONSHIPS

Question 92

The critical