PRESIDENTIAL + CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS Flashcards
(57 cards)
1
Q
constitutional requirements to be president
A
- natural born american citizen
- at least 35 years old
- resident for at least 14 years
2
Q
7 stages of the electoral process
A
- invisible primaries
- primaries and caucuses
- election of VP
- national party candidates
- general election campaign
- election day
- electoral college voting
3
Q
describe the invisible primary
A
- the stage in which potential candidates and supporters start launching and hinting at their campaigns
- candidates will use the media to gain coverage, exposure and recognition
- candidates will then formally announce that they want to enter the race
- the winner of the invisible primary is whoever is ahead in the polls in jan of election year
4
Q
examples of name and money being and not being key in the invisible primary
A
need money and name:
1. 2015 = hilitary clinton fundraised more than sanders + wins nomination
2. biden spent $115 million on primaries
don’t need money and name:
1. trump raised less than other candidates in 2016 cycle + won
2. 2019 = biden had not fundraised as much as sanders, but was endorsed by 2x the number of politicians
5
Q
events in the invisible primary
A
- “cattle show” events - candidates will go to local events to distinguish themselves
- televised debates - rick perry messes up (reputational damage)
6
Q
disadvantages of the invisible primary / bad for democracy
A
- high number of candidates - policy is never properly discussed
- only in 2020, only in the final debate was there proper policy discussion between biden + sanders
- voting is based on reputation, not policy - attracts wealthy, famous individuals / need for money
- ie michael bloomberg spent $460 million by jan 2020, pulled out in march 2020
- money gives exposure / less accountability
- success is based on exposure + name recognition
- you can miss early voting - accountable to corporates
- accountable to corporate bodies for sponsorship???
- don’t reflect the views of the average individual
7
Q
advantages of the invisible primary / good for democracy
A
- high number of candidates - allows for representation / ideological association
- ie ted cruz visited all 99 counties in iowa
- diversity of candidates and perspective - candidates are chosen based on poll success and popularity
- popular vote at end - constant popular input
- success is based on popular vote - not fully dependent on money
- the individual vote is more important than fundraising, fundraising only helps amplify your message - accountability
- candidates are subject to debates and outings - ensures adequate knowledge
- debate = clear views
8
Q
describe the primaries and caucuses process, and which states hold them
A
- main aim is to display popularity of presidential candidates and determine how delegates vote at conventions
- delegates are chosen to represent their party at a convention
- most of the nominated candidates for president win the primaries (not always , ie trump or obama)
primary:
- voters cast secret ballots
caucus: iowa, idaho, nevada etc
- party members meet and discuss candidates
- voters then split into who they want to vote for
- whichever candidate doesn’t reach the threshold is eliminated, the voters who vote for them will then redistribute themselves
9
Q
disadvantages with caucuses and primaries
A
- low voter turnout
- poor representation, apathy, no mandate
- 2000 = 19% turnout w no incumbent - heavily ideological turnout at caucuses
- 2016 = sanders won 66% of vote at all caucuses, clinton only won 33%
- concentration on more narrow views
- forces candidates to shift policy to more radical ends to appease voters
- ie harris on fracking (anti-fracking in primaries)
- binds politicians to specific views and then shift back, which is difficult (don’t fulfills promises + forced representation) - focus on specific states
- politicians focus their campaigning and policies all on the first states to hold primaries
- this is not representative
- ie iowa + NH = 2% of vote, but had significant influence - unrepresentative
- states can be stripped of their delegates at conventions
- voters are older - over-popular input
- candidates chosen by voters - no idea of what the qualities are for president
- compensate by using super-delegates (which do not vote based on popular demand)
10
Q
advantages with caucuses and primaries
A
- encourages internal party debate which will make the public more aware of policies
- ie pat buchanan challenged GHB and exposed his policies in debates
- GHB then won the election
- displays to the public how the candidate is damaged and lacks party support (their own policies are used against them) - can boost turnout if they are held early
- ie most mcgovern fraser
- turnout increased from 11 million mid 1900s to 61 million by 2016
- winners are democratically elected (no party influence) - candidate choice
- 2020 = over 30 candidates
- good representation
- ‘outsiders’ can also enter the race
11
Q
types of delegates + example
A
pledged delegates and superdelegates
- pledge to vote for a winning candidates
- superdelegates = vote for any candidate at convention (only vote in first round)
democrats in 2020
- 4000 pledged delegates
- 750 unpledged delegates
12
Q
when are primaries and caucuses typically held
A
- chosen by state
- usually in the early part of election year
- states organise their primaries early because the first states obtain the most media attention, and give the winning candidate the most media attention
13
Q
examples of incumbency and its negative impact on caucuses / primaries
A
- primaries are typically not held if an incumbent runs - ie in 2012, new york, florida etc didn’t hold
- 1984 - reagan wins 99% of primary vote
14
Q
examples of high and low turnout in primaries / caucuses
A
low:
- 2020 primaries and caucuses = only 28% of eligible voters
- eligible voters in 2012 drop down to 6.3% in democrat primaries (incumbent)
high:
- 2008 = turnout for obama was at 19.5% of eligible voters (enthusiasm for candidate)
- turnout in montana in 2020 = 46%
15
Q
mcgovern-fraser commission
A
- established by democrats
- advocated for greater transparency and voters choosing candidates
- candidates should be based on their share of the votes
- aimed to boost participation in primaries bc individual perspectives are amplified
16
Q
describe the process of choosing a VP
A
- VPs are chosen by the frontrunner from the primaries process who will appear at the convention
- they are announced shortly before the convention
17
Q
advantages + disadvantages of choosing a VP
A
advantages:
1. promotes a balanced ticket / REPRESENTATION (demographic, geography, age, ideology, gender, religion, experience)
- ie biden, harris
- ie obama and biden (age factor + foreign policy experience)
- enhance political engagement
- it will allow for party unity
- choosing someone as a VP may bridge party divides and polarization and reunify the party, to maximise opportunity to appeal to voters again
disadvantages:
1. your VP will have typically run against you (no loyalty)
2. accountability
- VPs are not directly elected - only accountable to president, and president has the choice on if VP runs with them again
18
Q
describe national party conventions
A
- national conventions which are held in order to formally adopt / appoint a presidential nominee
- the convention is attended by delegates who are chosen by states in primaries and caucuses
- the delegates (who’s number varies depending on state size) will pledge their vote for a candidate (most delegates are pledged, but there are super-delegates who only vote on the second round of voting and can help choose candidates)
19
Q
formal functions of party conventions
A
- choose the presidential candidate
- typically de jure - the convention acts to confirm the candidates - choose / announce the VP
- not as much anymore bc they are typically announced before - decide the party platform
- policies that the party will orientate itself around (ie project 2025)
- composed by a platform committee which will draft and propose the platform (clarity + accountability of presidency)
20
Q
nature of the conventions and their policies proposed
A
- typically, parties propose much more moderate policies to maximise their appeal and can convert the electorate to vote for them
- this is to ensure that the parties will appeal much more united and limit factionalism / differing opinions being amplified
- the policies proposed at conventions are the MAIN + fundamental policies (ie abortion) as to prevent any possible factionalism
- policies will typically be more generalised
21
Q
delegate requirements for democrats vs republicans and what does it show
A
democrats = 1969/3936
republicans = 1215/2429
*if the candidate gets a majority of the delegate votes it displays that they have a large mandate and legitimacy from states
- delegates may switch sides from their pledge + superdelegates may alter behaviour
22
Q
cost of conventions
A
2012 conventions cost $36 million
23
Q
examples of proposed policies of democrats + republicans during conventions
A
reps:
- conservative stance to overturn obergefell in 2016
dems:
- mid point between 2 candidates (ie sanders + hiliary)
- proposed increase to minimum wage and reform to wall street
- funding for covid + disease control
- track and trace in states
24
Q
informal functions of party conventions
A
- promote party unity
- primaries are bitter - this compensates for this
- present united front (ie sanders and hiliary) to attract more voters
- ie republican division between cruz and trump - internal divison + party repel - increase faith in the party
- inspire members of the party and rejuvinate party morale
- inspire activists to fight hard + members of the party to come together again (ie obama in 2020) - enthuse voters
- ensure policies stick and they feel excited to vote for specific parties
- ensures that political candidates become well-known, household names
- allow for voter thoughts to be consolidated and cement their thoughts
25
post-convention opinion poll boost
by 2000, average poll bounce was 6% for opposition party, and under 6% for incumbents -- ENTHUSIASM
26
conventions are important vs conventions are not important
important:
- boost those who are not household names (ie obama)
- unity + cement voter opinions + voter behaviour
- expand general political and policy knowledge of voters
- publicity + boost political participation
not important:
- doesn't actually inform + help people vote (29% found it important) - minimal engagement
- TV coverage of conventions has massively decreased (46 hours vs 9 hours)
- VPs are not actually picked at the convention anymore
- john boehner - nobody reads platform
- polls won't actually change very much
- waste of money
27
describe soft money
- money donated directly to political parties which is unlimited
- can come from individuals or PACs
- it is to be used to promote electoral candidates
- NO DONATION LIMIT
28
describe hard money
- money which goes directly to a candidate campaign
- tightly regulated in terms of how much money can be donated
- limited donations from individuals and PACs
- companies and corporations cannot donate any funds to campaigns
- limitations of $3,000 to a party
*still widely used and supported bc candidates know where money comes from, they know where the money is going to, it is good for reputational reasons (ie trust), and donors will have the candidate now accountable to them
29
stats on soft money
1. in 2000, $750 million on soft money was spent
30
stats on hard money
31
PACs
- political groups which collect donations from individuals to use to support or oppose candidates
- will enhance engagement because it is an avenue for people to vote to
- unlimited donations to party + overheads
32
describe the main acts regarding campaign finance
1. federal election campaign act 1974
- limited individual and corporation contributions to candidates
- limited foreign donations
- gov would match donations up to $250 to encourage individual donations
- created the FEC
2. austin v michigan chamber of commerce 1990
- michigan was allowed to prevent corporations from spending money to elect candidates
3. BCRA / mccain feingold laws 2002
4. mcconnel v FEC
- mccain-feingold doesn't breach 1A rights bc it only deals with soft money and was justified to prevent corruption
5. citizens united v FEC
33
issues w campaign finance
- plutocracy
- candidates are now accountable and beholden to donors
- wealthy candidates are better represented which neglects the general public
- becomes a difficult campaign cycle to break
- campaign finance is oriented around corporations + the rich - represents minority needs
- limited accountability to general public + accountable to firms + corporations - more willing to appease
*WATERGATE
34
buckley v valeo
- SC claimed that restrictions on private donations were infringing the right to free speech / 1A - mirror citizens united v FEC 2010
- limited direct contributions to campaigns, but wealthy individuals just donated their money independently
- money = speech
35
obama donation tactic
- led by matthew barzun (became ambassador to UK)
- encouraged people to donate small amounts of money online
- he stopped matching funds and raised over $150 million in sept 2008)
- representation of the working class
36
mccain-feingold laws
BIPARTISAN REFORMS
- increased individual limits on contributions to candidates
- foreign nationals could not contribute
- 'stand by your ad' provisions - accountability + not negative campaigning + accuracy
37
citizens united + speechnow
- companies have same political free speech rights as individuals
- companies can spend however much they want on campaigning
- "political speech is free speech" idea
- gave power to corporate firms to use money to exert political influence
- ESTABLISHED SUPERPACS and the ability to donate unlimited amounts of money
38
describe superpacs and government responses to them
- institutions which are allowed to raise unlimited sums of money and use it to support political candidates
in response:
1. sanders refused their donations in 2016 to not be associated w these candidates
39
mccutcheon v FEC
- the limit imposed by mccain feingold on how much contributors can spend in a 2 year cycle violates the first amendment
40
how much super-pacs and pac's spend in the election cycle
super pacs:
- 2016 = 1.8 billion
pacs:
- 2016 = $4 billion raised
41
give examples of one pro-trump super-PACS and one pro-biden one
pro trump:
- senate leadership fund PAC - invested $90 million in north carolina + georgia
pro biden:
- house majority PAC - spent $138 million attacking republicans, only $5 million on endorsing dems
42
dark money
- the donor is a secret - come from 501 (C) (4)
- these groups only spend 50% of their money on elections, but they advertise to influence elections
- 501(c)(4)s do not need to disclose the donor, unlike superpacs
- examples include crossroads GPS
43
stats for dark money in 2020
1. senate leadership fund = 63 million from one nation (501)(c)(4)
44
3 uses of money in elections + examples
1. organising
- ideas of locating in grassroots locations
- clinton had 480 offices on the ground (grassroots mobilisation etc)
2. campaigns
- mostly on travel
- ie trump in 2016 went to michigan and wisconsin because the mid-western blue wall broke down in dem support
3. media
- 80% of biden's finance = to media
- trump spent $11 million on a super-bowl ad - link to robert kennedy
45
rich people influencing elections
1. michael bloomberg spent $1 billion on endorsing democrats in 2020
2. 2600 donors contribute 20% of the money (almost a billion)
3. dustin markovitz spent $24 million toward biden's future-forward pac
46
describe election day
- day america will actually vote
- some states allow for early voting, and colorado (etc) use mail voting
- some states will always be blue, some will always be red
47
describe the electoral college
- the population tell their state which candidate to vote for, in which the state appoints electors, which are pledged to then vote for the winning candidate
- there are 538 electors
- each state is allocated electors, which is proportional to their population (number of reps in senate and in house)
- the number of electors you have can change (ie california)
- you do not need to win the popular vote to obtain the presidency, you just need to win the state (one more - pluralist)
- to win the electoral college and the presidency, you must win 270 votes / 538 college votes
- it is a winner take it all system - ie one more vote than others + all state college votes
- the VP announces the result of the election (ie gore loss, harris loss
ie texas = 40 college votes, wyoming = 3
48
good turnout vs bad turnout on election day
good turnout:
- 2020 = 66%
- 2020 = 66 million people used postal votes
bad turnout:
- 2008 = 62% despite a non-incumbent
49
importance of swing states + examples
states which could go either red or blue, and so therefore candidates will focus on these, because their electoral college votes will get them over the line
2016 = in the last 100 days, trump made 133 visits to florida, penn, ohio, north carolina, etc, and in the same 100 days, clinton made 87 -- all voted trump
*not diverse or representative - amplify minority votes more
50
montgomery county
- county in penn which was deciding the 2020 us election
- biden only had 81,000 more votes than trump in 2020, of which 63,000 of these votes came from this county
51
faithless electors stats
- there have been 164 incidents of faithless electors
- 2016 = 7 faithless electors
- no faithless electors in 2020
*ensure that public opinion is being adequately represented
52
electoral college fails to produce a winner
1800 + 1824
- only a minority of time
- you can have splits of 269/269
- president has to be elected by house of reps (allows for partisanship)
53
electoral college is good stats
- forces president to win above 50% vote
- allows for small state representation (wyoming)
54
electoral college is bad stats
rep:
- promotes a dominant 2 party system
- california = 54 college votes for 39 million people = 1:700,000 and wyoming = 1:195,000
acc:
participation:
- anything about low participation
- 1996 = clinton = 49% of vote but 70% college votes - winner takes all, not proportional
- ROSS PEROT = 19% vote in 1992 as independent, and no college votes (no concentrated support / not inclined to participate)
55
6 advantages of the incumbent and describe
1. name
- well known to electorate = media advantage
- people don't like change + established
2. fundraising
- no challenger = no funding needed
- good donor base from first time
3. sole candidate
- don't need to worry about primaries bc unchallenged
- use energy later
- people won't run against them (ie obama in 2012 in NY + virginia)
4. executive position
- can use position to make themselves popular (ie in swing states etc - ie obama in troops from afghanistan, or bush claiming no new taxes)
5. experience
- investors back winners
6. risk
- american voters are unwilling to change
56
stats on incumbency
32 presidents = run for re-election = 2/3rds of them have won
57
2020 election result comp to 2016
2016 = trump = 46% vote and 306 seats, but 46% in 2020 = 232 seats
2016 = clinton = 48% but 232 seats, but this is a higher % than what trump got, and trump still won
