psychology of proof and choice Flashcards
(29 cards)
define proof.
evidence or argument establishing a fact or the truth of a statement.
state tasks related to proof.
- explanation
- diagnosis
- prediction
- imagination
state types of inference.
- deduction (specific)
- induction (general)
- abduction (best explanation available)
state ways the mind undertakes deduction.
- structure (form)
- semantics (function)
- statistics (frequency)
define an assumption.
individuals draw conclusions from premises by applying stored rules of logic to derive a single valid inference.
classical syllogisms, conditional inferences and transitive inferences are all types of…
inferences.
define formal logic.
use of syntactic structure (form) to determine the validity of an argument.
describe natural deduction in terms of direct inferences and indirect inferences.
direct - when p or q are held in memory, then conclusion q follows.
indirect - when ‘if p then q’ and ‘not q’ are held in memory, ‘not p’ is inferred by applying inference rules.
describe Wason’s selection task.
- set of cards, letter and number on each side
- test truth telling rule
- e.g “if card has D on one side, it has a five on the other”
describe inferences as searching for mental models.
- inferences are drawn by searching mental representations for possibilities that have no counter-examples.
- construction of and search for models is constructed by:
= principle of truth
= working memory capacity
describe the difference between kinds of logically equivalent conditional statements, using the plane crash example.
conditional - “if the plane crashes the pilot dies”
disjunction - “either plane doesn’t crash or pilot dies”
true or false: evaluation is easier than generation.
false - generation is easier.
define the statistical view.
P (H/D)
information gain leads to a reduction in…
uncertainty.
define the concept of rarity.
most events/things are rare compared with the number of instances where they don’t occur (e.g. plane crashes)
describe the two dual system accounts.
system one - heuristic, pragmatic = recognition-driven, effortless.
system two - analytic, logical = inference-driven, effortful.
state the types of choice.
reducing uncertainty:
- diagnostic hypothesis testing
- prediction
choosing between alternatives
describe normative/ prescriptive models.
expected value - higher resource value = objective value* probability
expected utility - highest psychological value = subjective utility* probability.
give an example of an expected utility example .
raining / does not rains
take umbrella / do not take umbrella
give the statistic for expected utility example.
EU(A) = PA(o)U(o).
describe the editing and evaluation of the prospect theory.
editing - selecting desired outcomes against a reference point via heuristics.
evaluation - value judgement based on calculation of anticipated utilities X probabilities.
define loss aversion.
- faced with a risky choice leading to gains = individuals are risk-averse, preferring solutions that lead to a lower expected utility but with a higher certainty.
- faced with a risky choice leading to losses = individuals are risk-seeking, preferring solutions that lead to a lower expected utility, if potential to avoid losses.
- probability weighting = attribute excessive weight to events with low probabilities and insufficient weight to events with high probability.
describe representativeness.
which issue is the most probable.
describe anchoring.
individual depends on an initial piece of information (anchor) to make subsequent judgments.
