Public Opinion Flashcards
(14 cards)
What is public opinion?
The aggregation of people’s views about issues, situations and public figures
“Those opinions held by private persons which the governments find it prudent to heed” - V.O. Key
What are six potential sources of public opinion?
Socialization
Personal Experiences
Self-Interest
Education
Reference Groups
The Media
Define political socialisation, and agents of socialisation
Political Socialisation - the process by which the central tenets of the political culture are transmitted from those immersed in it to those, such as children and immigrants, who are not.
Agents of Socialisation - the persons, such as parents and teachers, and settings, such as families and schools, that carry out the political socialization process.
What are the four effects that the media can have on public opinion?
Educational Effect
The public learns from what it sees discussed in the media and cannot learn, obviously, about issues that are not taken up by the media.
Agenda-Setting Effect
The extent to which the amount of media coverage of an issue affects the public’s attention to and interest in that issue.
Framing Effect
The way an issue is framed or presented in the media, either episodically or thematically, suggests to the public where the praise or blame should be laid.
Persuasion Effect
The way an issue is presented by the media can sometimes change the substance of what people think about the issue.
What are the differences between attitudes, ideologies and partisanship?
An attitude is “an organized and consistent manner of thinking, feeling, and reacting with regard to people, groups, social issues or, more generally, any event in one’s environment.”
A political ideology is an elaborately organized set of political attitudes.
Ideologies promote consistency by connecting political attitudes to a more general principle or set of principles.
Partisanship, or the disposition toward political parties, shapes opinions and organizes other political attitudes.
There are two complementary interpretations of partisanship:
- party identification as psychological phenomenon
- party attachment as a practical tool
What are the three most common errors in measuring public opinion?
Sampling Error
Measurement Error
Selection Bias
What is a sampling error?
The error that arises in the public opinion survey as a result of relying on a representative, but small, sample of the larger population.
What is selection bias?
The error that occurs when a sample systematically includes or excludes people with certain attitudes.
1936 Literary Digest Poll
What is a measurement error?
The error that arises from attempting to measure something as subjective as opinion
Answers can vary dramatically depending on how a question is asked.
What are the generally accepted explanations for the 2016 Presidential Election polling errors?
Undecided Voters chose Trump in final days
Turnout of Trump voters higher than expected
State polls understated Trump (did not adjust for education)
What were the differences in 2024 polling?
Taking into account that weighting was highly significant, it could lead to swings of up to eight points
Weighing by education, income, and past vote largely corrected previous errors and led to more accurate predictions
There was still a general under-estimate of Trump support - may be Trump-specific
What are three major characteristics of American public opinion?
Uninformed
Not Ideological
Inconsistent
Why does public opinion tend to be poorly informed?
Information costs are high.
These are the time and mental efforts required to absorb and store information, whether from conversations, personal experiences, or the media.
How does ideological alignment tend to relate to public opinion?
Political elites tend to have well-structured ideologies.
Mass public: ordinary citizens for whom political involvement is limited, usually are NOT ideological
