QUANTITATIVE METHODS Flashcards
most important (28 cards)
Type 1 and type 2 Errors
Type 1 error: reject the null when it’s actually true (false positive)
Type 2 error: keep the null when it’s actually false (false negative)
confidence Interval (CL)
A range that Probably contains the true value
CI = X +- Z
Agency Problem
Conflict between managors (agents) and shareholders (owners)
Working Capital
Current assets - current liabities
Why important: measures liquidity and short term financial heath.
Z - Score
Tell how far a nalue is from the mean, in standard deviation
Sharpe Ratio
how much extra return you get for the risk you take
Geometric Mean
Used for groth rates over time (like yearly Investment returns). it shows the true average return with compounding
Arithmetic Mean
Basic Kind of average. add all the numbers divide by how many numbers
Future Value (FV)
FV=PV×(1+r)
n
PV: Present Value
r: Interest rate per period
n: Number of periods
Present Value (PV)
Probability Rules
Addition Rule:
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
Z - Score
How far a number is from the mean.
F: Z= (your value - mean) / STD Deviation
Probability Rules
Multiplication Rule:
P(A∩B)=P(A)⋅P(B∣A)
Probability Rules
Expected Value (Mean)
Variance of a Random Variable
Normal Distribution
Bell-shaped, symmetric
68% within 1 SD, 95% within 2 SDs, 99.7% within 3 SDs
Z-Score
Z=
σ
X−μ
Lognormal Distribution
Used for asset prices
Positively skewed
Cannot be negative
Central Limit Theorem
For large samples, the sampling distribution of the mean is approximately normal, even if population isn’t.
Standard Error of the Mean
Hypothesis Testing
Hypotheses
Null (H₀): No effect or difference
Alternative (H₁): What we want to prove
Test Statistic (Z-test or T-test)
p-value
The probability of obtaining a test statistic more extreme than the one observed, assuming H₀ is true.
Type I vs. Type II Errors
Type Meaning
Type I Rejecting H₀ when it’s true (False Positive)
Type II Failing to reject H₀ when it’s false
Technical Analysis Basics
Support Level: Price at which demand prevents decline
Resistance Level: Price at which supply prevents rise
Moving Average: Smooths price data over time
Momentum Indicators: Identify strength of trends