Questions and Answers Flashcards
Capital Market Expectations
What is consistent with a likely weak economy in the future?
When both fiscal and monetary polices are restrictive, the yield curve is downward-sloping (i.e. it is inverted as short-term rates are higher than long-term rates), and the economy is likely to contract in the future
Capital Market Expectations
During an economic recession, what will increase?
Bond prices increase during a recession as inflationary decreases and interest rates decline causing bond prices to increase since they are inversely related to the change in interest rates
Capital Market Expectations
What is not an input to the Taylor Rule?
The Taylor rule determines the target interest rate using the neutral rate, expected GDP relative to its long-term trend, and expected inflation relative to its targeted amount
Capital Market Expectations
Describe the effects of the use of Monetary Policy to stimulate growth or rein in inflation in an economy.
Both direction of a change in interest rates and the level of interest rates are important. If, for example, rates are increased to say 4% to combat inflation but this is still low compared to the neutral rate of 6% in a country, then this rate may still be low enough to allow growth and inflation to continue
Capital Market Expectations
Suppose that the consumer price index (CPI) is expected to change from 124 to 118. what asset class is most likely to perform the best during such a period?
The inflation index forecast suggests that deflation is expected. Nominal rate bonds should perform the best under that scenario because the purchasing power of the coupon payments would increase. Given the high-quality nature of the bonds, concerns about default are unlikely to dominate this greater purchasing power benefit
Capital Market Expectations
Suppose the economy is expected to grow at its long-term trend rate, target inflation is 2%, the inflation index is expected to increase to 3%, and the central bank’s real neutral short-term interest rate is 1%. The target nominal short-term interest rate should be closest to?
Since the real neutral inflation is 3%, the adjustment will be made to the nominal 4% short-term rate. Given that GDP is growing at its long-term trend, this will not impact the adjustment using the Taylor Rule. With inflation at 3% and target inflation at 2%, the central bank will increase interest rates by one-half the difference, resulting in a nominal target rate of 4.5%
Capital Market Expectations
What is not a characteristic of the economic indicators as used in economic forecasting?
A. Are difficult to understand and interpret
B. Have an effectiveness that has been verified by academic research
C. Can be adapted for specific purposes
Economic indicators are actually easy to understand and interpret
Capital Market Expectations
An analyst has accurately estimated a real growth rate of 3% in his discounted cash flow model by examining the growth of the economy. Population growth is expected to be 1%, labor force participation is expected to grow by 0.5% and capital expenditures are expected to grow by 1%. What best describes the analyst’s estimate of growth?
The analyst:
A. Has not accounted for ** in the forecast
B. Is anticipating technological progress
C. Is forecasting unrealistic growth
B. Total factor productivity, such as technological progress, can reasonably explain the differential between the inputs to economic growth and the analysts growth rate in the discounted cash model. (inflation is no a concern since the analyst is working with real numbers)
Capital Market Expectations
Which of the following is least likely to be considered an exogenous shock?
A. Political tensions arising between two neighboring countries
B. Strong economic recovery following a slow recession
C. Discovery of a new natural resource to be used in production
B Normal business cycle activity is not considered exogenous since the activity is built into the asset price. The other items are considered exogenous in that they arise out side the normal economic cycle.
Capital Market Expectations
Suppose that currently, monetary policy is stimulative and fiscal policy is restrictive. Which of the following most likely describes the shape of the yield curve?
A. Very Steep
B. Inverted
C. Moderately Steep
Stimulative monetary policy will result in lower short-term rates. Restrictive fiscal policy will slow economic activity thus likely reducing rates in the future. The net result is a moderately steep yield curve. If both were stimulative, the yield curve would rise sharply and ve very steep. An inverted yield curve is normally the results of restrictive monetary and fiscal policy
Capital Market Expectations LM2
What is not indicative of low risk in an emerging market economy?
The debt-to-GDP ratio of 70% to 80% has been troublesome for emerging countries. A current account deficit exceeding 4% of GDP has been a warning sign of potential difficulty. Foreign exchange reserves less than 100% of short-term debt is a sign of trouble ( greater than 200% is considered strong)
Capital Market Expectations LM2
Suppose that an equity market has a dividend yield of 3%, real earnings growth of 2%, inflation of 1%, and a 0.5% reduction in shares outstanding anticipated. Furthermore, the P/E ratio is expected to rise from 16 to 16.32. The return on the market that would be forecast by the Grinold-Kroner model would be closest to:
The forecasted return includes all the elements of Grinold-Kroner. The reduction in shares outstanding represents a repurchase yield and adds to the forecasted return. The increase in the P/E ratio would result in an addition return. Numerically, the return is computed as:
dividend yield + real earnings growth+inflation - (-reduction in shares)+((expected P/E/ current PE) -1)
3% + 2% +1% -(-0.5%)+((16.32/16)-1) = 0.085
Capital Market Expectations LM2
ABC is a bond fund engaging in active management. ABC has expertise in identifying and improving credit conditions and, therefore, is willing to accept significant credit risk. If ABC seeks to increase the premiums earned by accepting credit risk, which of the following strategies is most likely to be pursued by ABC?
A. Increasing the maturities of credit-risky bonds
B. Shifting from AA to AAA bonds
C. Decreasing the maturities of credit-risky bonds
Shortening maturity is the correct strategy since credit premiums have been shown to be especially generous at the short end of the curve. Increasing the maturities of credit risky bonds would go against the empirical evidence about term and premiums. Moving from AA to AAA bonds would be an effective way to take on increasing credit risk because that would be a move toward safer investments and away from the expertise of the fund.
Capital Market Expectations LM2
Joshua Petersen is a real estate analyst that want to make appropriate adjustments to a capitalization rate. He predicts that vacancy rate will increase and that the availability of credit will decrease. Based on these views, it is most likely that Petersen:
A. Should increase the capitalization rate
B. May need to either increase or decrease the capitalization rate because the two predictions have?????
C. Should decrease the capitalization rate
Capitalization rate are positively related to vacancy rates and inversely related to the availability of credit, Therefore, the appropriate adjustment to the capitalization rate would be to increase it. This is logical since both factors should negatively impact the value of real estate, which would also be the result of higher capitalization rates.
Capital Market Expectations LM2
What factors would most likely be considered a sign that an emerging market is more susceptible to risk?
Less developed and smaller financial markets, and wealth concentration are both signs that an emerging market is more susceptible to risk. A greater dominance of cyclical industries, including commodities, is also a sign of increased risk.
Capital Market Expectations LM2
What best describes an advantage and disadvantages of using factor-based variance/covariance matrices versus sample variance/covariance matrices in estimating volatility?
The use of a few common factors greatly reduces the number of observations needed to produce a variance-covariance matrix and is a strength of the factor-based approach. The disadvantages of the factor-based approach are that the matrix is not unbiased and is not consistent.
Capital Market Expectations LM2
An analyst estimates the following statistics for properties in the commercial real estate sector: Current capitalization (cap) rate: 4.3%, next year’s expected cap rate: 3.8%, net operating income (NOI) real growth rate: 1.2%, expected inflation: 0.9%. Based on the information provided, the expected return on the commercial real estate sector property is closest to:
To find the change in the expected cap rate from 4.3% to 3.8% you will need to subtract the current cap rate from the expected cap and then divide it by the current cap rate:
(3.8% - 4.3%) / 4.3% = -11.6%
The expected return on the commercial real estate properties can be written as:
E(RRE) = Cap Rate + Nominal NOI Growth Rate - %▲Cap rate =
4.3% + (1.2% + 0.9%) - (-11.6%) = 18.0%
Capital Market Expectations LM2
Christopher Lawe is an analyst examining data from a country he believes is experiencing significant economic changes over both the short and long term. In the short term, the economy is at the trough of a cycle, and in the long term he believes the country will experience increased integration with the world market. Based on Lawe’s analysis, the country’s equity market is most likely to experience what?
Equities tend to do well from a point when the economy is at a trough because future economic expansion positively impacts returns. An increase in integration will reduce the risk of the equity market, thus reducing required returns. The reduction in required returns will increase equity prices and result in higher returns through increased integration
Capital Market Expectations LM2
What statement regarding risk in emerging market economies is least accurate?
A. Their undiversified nature makes them susceptible to volatile capital cows and economic crisis
B. Inadequate fiscal and monetary policies
C. The economies are often heavily dependent on consumer durables
C. Small economies are often heavily dependent on the sale of commodities and their undiversified nature make them susceptible to volatile capital flow and economic crises
Capital Market Expectations LM2
Suppose that an equity market has a dividend yield of 3%, real earning growth of 2%, inflation of 1%, and is experiencing a reduction in shares outstanding of 0.5%. The P/E ratio is expected to rise from 16 to 16.32. The repricing return is expected to be closest to:
The repricing component is the percentage change in the P/E ratio.
(16.32 / 16) - 1 = 2%
Overview of Asset Allocation
Asset classes may share different sources of risk. An alternative to asset allocation is the use of risk factors. Describe this approach
Risk factors describe the sources of risk for an asset class, not the other way around. The objective of risk factors is to determine the systematic source of risk of all asset classes and then construct an asset allocation around desirable exposures to these risk factors. Risk factors are often not investable (i.e. inflation). Asset classes often have overlapping risk factors. For example, credit and equities will have overlapping risk factors.
Examples of risk factors include volatility, liquidity, inflation, interest rates, duration, foreign exchange, and default risk.
Overview of Asset Allocation
Regarding the use of risk factors when making asset allocation decisions, what is most correct?
A. Multifactor models can be used to isolate systematic risk exposures
B. Risk factors cannot be used at units of analysis in asset allocation
C. Risk factors are as easy to invest in as an asset class
A. - Multifactor models can be used for asset allocation by creating factor portfolios, which isolate systematic risk exposures (i.e., non-diversifiable risks). Risk factors can be used as units of analysis in asset allocation. But one problem is that it is not always easy to determine how to invest in those identified risk factors. Some may be investable and others may not. Asset classes are by definition assets that are owned and investable, though the cost and ease of investing varies
Overview of Asset Allocation
Concerning asset allocation risk measures, what statistical risk measures are most likely associated with a defined benefit plan utilizing an asset-only approach?
For the asset-only approach, the relevant risk measure is the standard deviation of portfolio returns, which incorporates asset-class volatilities and asset-class return correlations. This case specifically says an asset only approach is being used and that is not uncommon for DB plans. Arguably a liability relative style is more appropriate, but the asset only approach can implicitly deal with the liabilities by targeting a rate of return sufficient to meet the liability payouts.
Overview of Asset Allocation
Explain key characteristics of asset classes.
A desirable characteristic of asset classes is they should not be highly correlated with each other. Furthermore, asset classes should be mutually exclusive and collectively mutually exhaustive.