Reasoning and Decision Making

Question 1

Inductive Reasoning

Answer 1

Is conclusion possible given premise?

Question 2

Deductive Reasoning

Answer 2

Does the conclusion follow with certainty from premises?

Question 3

Mental Model Theory

Answer 3

• create mental model of world that satisfies all premises
• Then inspect model to determine validity of conclusion.

ex: All A are B Some B are C
Therefore, some A are C

• Flaw – If 1st model is valid,
  we overlook alternatives that might not satisfy all premises.

Question 4

Base-Rate Neglect

Answer 4

Failing to take prior probabilities (base rates) into account.

Question 5

Conservatism

Answer 5

Failing to take new evidence in2 account

• Over reliance on base-rate

Question 6

Algorhythm

Answer 6

rule or procedure for reasoning/problem solving.

• Guaranteed to return correct answer if used correctly.

Question 7

Heuristics

Answer 7

Rule of thumb, mental short-cut.

• Fast & easy approach
• Error-prone but benefits exist

Question 8

Representativeness

Answer 8

Judging prob of event by deciding how representative that event appears to be of its larger group of events

ex: coin tosses

Question 9

Availability

and Vividness effect

Answer 9

Judging prob of event based on how easily event can be retrieved

• Vividness effect: When rare events easier to retrieve
  ex: Airplane crashes: More news coverage, DoP

Question 10

Anchoring and Adjustment

Answer 10

• Ppl influenced by initial anchor value
• Anchor value may be unreliable, arbitrary, and adjustment is often insufficient

Question 11

Hindsight Bias

Answer 11

Tendency to view what has already happened as obvious, even though we wouldn’t have predicted it prior to receiving outcome info.