Strategic Foresight

Question 1

Forecasting vs Scenario Thinking

Answer 1

“Different Worlds and not only different results in the same World” Pierre Wack

Foresight, Horizon Scanning and Scenarios: principles and key concepts
Foresight can (should) use forecasts but must not be mistaken for Forecasting

Question 2

Forecasting Processes

Answer 2

Question 3

Forecasting

Answer 3

• Focus on certainties; hides uncertainties
• Generates linear projections on a single point * Favours continuities
• Gives primacy to quantitative over qualitative * Hides the risks
• Starts from simple to complex
• Usually adopts a partial approach

Question 4

Foresight

Answer 4

• Focus on uncertainties
• Generates several but logical pictures of the future * Takes disruptions into consideration
• Unites quantitative and qualitative
• Underlines risks
• Starts from complex to simple
• Adopts a global approach