Summary Flashcards
(14 cards)
What is the projected population decline for some major economies by 2100?
Populations in some major economies will fall by 20 to 50 percent
Based on UN projections
What percentage of the global population lives in countries with fertility rates below the replacement rate?
Two-thirds of humanity
The replacement rate is 2.1 children per family
How will age structures change due to demographic shifts?
They will invert from pyramids to obelisks
This means more older people and fewer younger people
What will the share of people of working age be in China by 2050?
59 percent
Down from 67 percent today
What proportion of global consumption will seniors account for by 2050?
One-quarter
This is double their share in 1997
What is the expected average annual GDP per capita growth slowdown in first wave countries from 2023 to 2050?
0.4 percent
It could be up to 0.8 percent in some countries
What changes might be required in retirement systems to fund the gap between senior consumption and income?
Channel as much as 50 percent of labor income
This is to fund a 1.5-time increase in the gap
What is a potential consequence of demographic change for younger generations?
Lower economic growth and increased costs due to more retirees
The traditional flow of wealth between generations may erode
What societal shift is necessary to avert depopulation?
Raise fertility rates
This is a societal shift without precedent in modern history
What is the status of fertility rates in much of the world today?
Fallen below the replacement rate
Some countries have started to see population decline
What combination of factors is suggested to ensure global prosperity in the future?
Higher productivity, more work per person, effective migration, and higher fertility rates
No single factor alone will be enough
What historical event last caused a significant global population decline?
The bubonic plague of the Middle Ages
It is believed to have killed roughly half of Europeans
Why is the current economic system being challenged by demographic changes?
It was developed for growing populations, particularly working-age populations
This system no longer holds due to falling fertility rates
What must societies rethink to adapt to demographic shifts?
Existing systems for work and retirement
This may necessitate a change in the social contract
