The Electoral Process and Direct Democracy (US) Flashcards
(104 cards)
1
Q
What are the main types of elections in the US?
A
- Presidential.
- Congressional.
- Primaries and caucuses.
- Direct democracy.
2
Q
How are the timings of elections decided in the US?
A
- Set out in the constitution.
- Presidential elections happen every 4 years in November.
- Congressional elections take place every two years - the whole of this house and 1/3 senate.
3
Q
How are the timings for local elections decided?
A
- Decided by individual states - typically occur every one or two years.
- Wisconsin controversially at the height of voice when to the polls for its primaries and local elections.
4
Q
What roles do states have in elections?
A
- manipulating boundaries for House districts (gerrymandering_.
- Decided on voter ID laws and the way that primary elections are organised.
- Discretion over voter registration requirements - eg North Dakota has no formal registration requirements.
Tight regulations in states like Oklahoma means that the Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins did not appear on the ballot in 21 states.
5
Q
What is the role of the federal government in elections?
A
- Put federal rules for elections in place.
- eg Requirement that all polling stations are accessible to people with disabilities and there is no racial or gender bar to voting.
6
Q
What roles do parties have in elections?
A
- Also have some input such as determining the procedure for awarding delegates to the national nominating conventions.
- Where the successful candidate is formally endorsed as their parties candidate for the forthcoming national election.
7
Q
What system do the majority of US elections use?
A
- Use a majoritarian electoral system.
- True for most congressional elections.
- There are exceptions as the arrangement of elections is state based - there are no federal requirements other than the electoral college.
8
Q
Given an example of state that does not use a majoritarian system:
A
- Georgias election law requires a top-two election for its senate.
- Means if the top candidate fails to get over 50% in its first round, a run off election happens 8 weeks later between the top two candidate.
- happened in 2020.
- Main uses a ranked choice voting system - similar to STV.
9
Q
What sort of primary system is used in California?
A
- California uses a non-partisan blanket primary law.
- means the the top two candidates regardless of party affiliations are selected in state primary - the of head to head in the actual senate election.
- June 2018 - blanket primary led to the selection of two democrats - means that California had no republican candidates on their ticket.
10
Q
Which is the largest state in terms of electoral college votes?
A
- California has 55.
11
Q
When was Washington DC given electoral college electors?
A
- 21st amendent (1961).
- Gives it 3 electoral college votes.
12
Q
What are the strengths of the US electoral system?
A
- Huge number of elections - lots of opportunities for participation.
- Almost entirely majoritarian - ensures that a single party clearly wins.
- Electoral system reflects the federal nature of US politics - states have much discretion over aspects of elections.
- Primaries and caucuses enable voters to play a key role in selecting candidates.
- The electoral college reinforces the federal nature of the USA and ensures that smaller states are not overlooked.
13
Q
What are the weaknesses of the electoral system of the US?
A
- US voters suffer from voter fatigue.
- Favours a two-party system, little scope for third parties and independents.
- Two parties often control one chamber each in congress or a state legislature - makes gridlock more common.
- Scope for electoral manipulation with gerrymandering and voter ID laws.
- Primaries and caucuses can encourage divisions within parties.
14
Q
What are the main characteristics of American election campaigns?
A
- Regularity and constant campaigning.
- Greater emphasis on individual candidates rather on a party.
- More focussed on getting out the vote than changing voters minds.
- Huge focus on swing states.
- Huge expense at presidential, congressional and state level elections.
15
Q
What is the frequency of campaigns in US elections?
A
- Almost constantly campaigning.
- Campaigning for the next presidential election typically happens straight after the midterms.
- ‘invisible primaries’ start - Trumps reluctance to promote a national lockdown were ascribed to his fears about the economic impact of a prolonged shutdown.
- Economic situation typically seen as crucial to re-election chances.
16
Q
Why is the individuality of candidates important in US election campaigns?
A
- US elections typically fail to mention party allegiance.
- focus on rugged individualism.
- getting elected for office on the campaign comes from individual campaigns - not neccessarily party support.
- Seen in Trump - he had never held public office before he ran for office.
17
Q
Evidence of election campaigns trying to get voters to come out to vote:
A
- 2004 Republicans promoting state ballot measures banning same sex marriage - incentivising white conservative evangelicals to vote.
- Also about restricting groups from voting - republican controlled states have tighter voter ID-laws and less enthusiasm for postal voting that tends to be popular with younger and lower paid workers who are less likely to vote republican.
18
Q
Evidence of safe seats being important in elections:
A
- majority of campaigning is focussed on swing states.
- 2/3s of campaign events in 2016 happened in just 6 states.
19
Q
What states are focussed on during primary campaigns?
A
- Focus placed on the states that come first in the primary and caucus diary - Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
- Most money and attention paid to those who hold primaries and caucuses early - victory in these states often builds a candidates momentum - creates added funding and endorsements.
- Super Tuesday - when majority of primaries and caucuses happen.
- 2020 Democracy primaries, 4 contenders withdrew after the first 2 primaries.
20
Q
How much was spent on election campaigning in the 2020 election?
A
$14 billion - over $7 billion was on races for the senate and house.
- Clinton campaign outspent Trump in 2016 - yet lost.
21
Q
What typically happens during midterms?
A
- Presidents loose control over congress.
- In the aftermath of 9/11 George W Bush was a notable election.
- Obama lost control of the House in 2010 and Senate in 2014 making him a lame duck.
- Trump lost control of the House in 2018.
- Senators and house representatives are not constrained by term limits - can build up a strong local base and an effective campaign team.
22
Q
What percentage of people saw the 2018 midterms as being a vote against Trump?
A
34%.
23
Q
Why was the Democrats gaining control of the House in the 2018 midterms significant?
A
- Allowed them to launch impeachment proceedings and investigations.
2019 the House oversight Committee investigated transport secretary Elaine Chao (her husband Mitch McConnell was Senate Republican leader) - accused of favouring a shipping company founded by her father.
24
Q
What was turnout for the 2018 midterms like?
A
- 49% compared to 37% in 2014.
- Republicans failed to win West Virginia seat held by Democrat Joe Manchin.
25
How did the primary system in US politics emerge?
- Emerge form the progressive era at the turn of the 20th century.
- Represent a desire to break from 'smoke filled rooms' where candidates were selected behind close doors.
- not really important in presidential election until the 1960s - until then they were considered to be beauty contests.
26
Why was the West Virginia Democrat primary in 1970 significant?
- J.F.Kennedy entered and won - proved that a catholic candidate could win a largely protestant state.
- Would then go on to become president.
27
How many states used caucuses in 2020?
- only 3 states retained them for the Democrat presidential campaign - Iowna, Nevada and Wyoming.
28
What is the purpose of presidential primaries and caucuses?
- To select delegates who are pledged to vote for a particular candidate at their national nominating connections.
- Primaries also used to select party candidates for state and congressional elections.
29
What is turnout like for primaries and caucuses?
- typically low - tends to consist of the party's core supporters - means that candidates have to veer to the right or left to attract enough voters.
30
What are the variations between states for eligibility in primaries and caucuses?
- Some state like Oregon and New York only allow voters to a pre-registered party to participate in that party's primary - closed primaries.
- States like Georgia allow all registered to vote in any parties primary - they can only vote in one - open primaries.
- Some have a semi open/closed system - voters preregistered with a party can only vote in the party's party - non-affiliated voters can choose on polling day which party primary to vote in.
31
What is 'frontloading' in primary and caucus elections?
- Moving the states primary/caucus closer to the state in order to gain greater influence over the final outcome .
- 2020 California moved its primary from June to March.
- only 4 states are allowed to chose their candidates in February.
32
What is Super Tuesday?
When states bunch up their primaries together in one day in March.
- 2020, 3 March, 14 states held their Democrat primaries - awarded over a third of delegates.
33
What are the invisible primaries?
- The year or so in the build-up to the primaries.
- Potential candidates may announce their intention to run - they'll set up an exploratory committee/campaign team.
- Raise public profile.
- Build their war chest.
34
What are the advantages of primaries and caucuses?
- Boosts opportunities for political participation.
- Allows political outsiders to run for office - Trump.
- Democratic to let people choose their candidates.
- Road-test candidates - check that they have the qualities needed to run for office.
- Staggered length of primary campaigns allows for a range of states to influence the outcome.
- Caucuses provide an opportunity for ordinary voters to discuss the relative merits and weaknesses of candidates and promote political engagement.
35
What are the disadvantages of the primary and caucus system?
- Increases focus on candidates rather than party or policies - exacerbates divisions.
- Outsiders can lack the DC connections and experience necessary.
- Political professionals are better qualified at understanding candidates qualities that the public.
- Primaries add to the cost and length of campaigns and increase voter fatigue.
- Caucus meetings lack voter secrecy and are not suited to the modern age of politics.
36
What are the suggestions of replacements to the primary and caucus system?
- A single national primary election - would remove the federal aspect of the process - would be a disadvantage to small states and unknown candidates looking to build momentum.
- Rotating regional primaries - country divided into four regions with each region taking it in turn to hold all of their primaries.
- Rotate which region comes first .
- Delegate plan - allows smaller states to go first, followed by large states - 4 stages based on state size.
37
What are national nominating conventions?
- Formal coronations of the successful candidates.
- Typically take place in swing states.
- typically held 2-3 months before the November election.
38
Where did the 2024 national convention take place?
- Chicago.
- 2020, Democrats held it Wisconsin - a state that was only narrowly won by Trump in 2016.
39
What functions does the modern national party convention fulfil?
- Chance to unite a divided party - atmosphere is that of a rally rather than a forum for formal political debate.
- It gives momentum to the candidates capping through publicity and a chance to highlight their policy aims.
- typically leads to a temporary boost in poll ratings - not the case in 2020.
- Marks the formal beginning of the presidential campaign.
40
How many electors are there in the electoral college?
- 538.
41
What are the historical roots of the electoral college?
- Indirect method of voting through electors is reflective of the founding fathers fear concerning a mass popular vote
- In a period without mass media there was also a fear that the presidential candidate would not be known by most voters.
- It was also a nod to the college of cardinals.
- At the time of the Philadelphia convention no country directly elected its chief executive.
42
What are the main features of the electoral college?
- Number of electors per state is equivalent to the size of their congressional delegates.
- Always a minimum of three as every state has at leas two senators and one house representative.
- Alaska and Wyoming have the minimum number electors.
- Washington DC aslo has 3 ECVs.
- Nearly all states award voters on a winner takes all basis.
- Electors are real people usually picked by the party faithful.
43
Which states don't use a winner takes all system?
- Nebraska and Maine use a congressional district method.
- Winner of each district is awarded one electoral vote - the winner of the state wide vote is awarded the states remaining two electoral votes.
- Nothing in the constitution that prevents state distributing their electoral college voters on a proportional basis.
44
Who were New Yorks state electors in 2020?
- Bill and Hillary Clinton.
45
What are faithless electors?
- Those who are pledged to vote their party's candidate and then pick someone different.
- Faithless electors have never affected the outcome of an election - more of a protests vote.
46
How many faithless electors were there in 2016?
- 7.
- Included 4 Democrats in Washington state, 3 of whom voted for the moderate republican ex-secretary of state Colin Powell.
47
Examples of candidates winning the popular vote but not the electoral college?
- 2000 - Bush v Al Gore.
- 2016 - Trump v Clinton
48
When was the last time there was a stalemate in the electoral college?
- 1824.
49
What happens in the event of a stalemate of the electoral college?
- The house would choose the president and the senate would choose the vice president.
- For this to occur a third party or an independent would need to win some of the electoral college votes.
50
When was the last time an independent candidate won electoral college votes?
- Not happened since 1968 when segregationists George Wallace won five states in the Deep South.
51
What arguments are there that the Electoral College should be retained?
- Winner of popular vote can fail to be elected president. eg Al Gore and Hilary Clinton.
- Frequently exaggerates margin of victory. 1984 Regan won 59% of the Electoral College Vote and 97% of ECVs.
- Smaller states are overrepresented - California has one electoral vote per 712,000 and Wyoming one per 195,000 people.
- It was drawn up by the founding father in a different political era.
- Encourages candidates to focus campaigning on a small number of swing states.
- Faithless electors.
- Electoral college depresses turnout in safe seats.
- Discriminates against independents and third parties.
52
What are the arguments that the electoral college should be abolished?
- Typically delivers the right result.
- Electoral college reflects the federal nature of the USA - ensures that candidates have to campaign in a variety of states, not just the most populated.
- No superior method has gained widespread and bipartisan support.
- A nationwide popular vote would lead to candidates focussing on just large urban areas.
- Faithless electors have never effected the final election outcome - can be fixed by passing a law requiring electors to vote for their pledged candidate.
- Electors could be awarded proportionally.
53
Why has the electoral college not yet been abolished?
- It would require a constitutional amendment - 2/3s supermajority in congress and ratification by 3/4s of states.
- Smaller states would loose out and therefore would veto.
- changing it to a directly proportional system would lead to campaigns being focussed on Urban areas.
54
What factors affect the outcomes of elections in US politics?
- Incumbency.
- Issues.
- Media.
- Leadership and other individual qualities of candidates.
- Voter profile.
- Money.
55
In 2018 what percentage of incumbents were successfull?
- 90.8%.
56
What advantages do incumbents have in elections?
- More likely to have a higher level of name recognition.
- Can boast of past achievements - 'bringing home the bacon'.
- Many serve on relevant congressional committees that influence policies of their region.
- Have had the ability to build up their war chests.
57
Evidence of a presidents response to a crisis impacting an election campaign:
- George W Bush's response to the 9/11 terror attacks.
- Led to his approval ratings rising to 90%.
- His handling of Hurricane Katrina was not seen as being that impressive - had the opposite effect on his poll ratings - dropped to 38%.
58
What are 'October Surprise's'?
- News event happening a short time before the polls open in early November that can influence a presidential election.
59
Examples of October surprises?
- Trump's Hollywood Access Tape.
- Clinton was accused of using a private email server whilst serving as Secretary of State.
60
How can political Ads influence a campaign?
- Direct in the control of a candidate and are important for projecting a desired image.
- 2012 - Obama's campaign released an ad tilted remember - lauded Obamas record in raising US oil production - attacked Mitt Romney for being 'in the pocket of the big wealthy oil companies'.
61
How do televised debates impact an election campaign?
- First happened in 1960, Kennedy v Nixon.
- Nixon refused makeup - those who watched thought he looked sweaty and pale - those listening to the debate on the radio favoured Nison.
- Biden-Trump debate 2020 saw 73 million viewers watch it.
- Biden-Trump debate 2024 saw Biden receive criticism that led to him stepping out of the presidential race.H
62
How can social media affect an election campaign?
- More important in recent elections.
- Trump team use of TikTok - appearing on podcasts with the likes of Logan Pial.
63
Evidence of presidential campaigns being about the person not the party:
- Trumps MAGA slogan isn't associated with the Republican Party.
64
Why are presidential campaigns more about the person than the party?
- Reflects the role of primaries in which candidates run and fund their own campaigns.
- The nature of the presidential office - it's a personal not a party office.
- Social media underlines the cult of personality.
65
What factors influence voting behaviour in US politics?
- Primacy factors - voter profile.
- Recency factors - candidates personalities and how effective their campaign is.
66
What percentage of white evangelicals voted for Trump in 2024?
87%
67
What percentage of black women voted for Harris in 2024?
- 91%
68
What percentage of rural Americans voted for Trump in 2024?
-64%.
69
What are realigning elections?
- When voters change or realigns with a fresh political party or candidate.
- This then causes a lasting impact on voting behaviour.
70
Why was the 1964 election a 'realigning election'?
- Realignment of conservative white voters in the south away from the Democrats and towards the Republicans.
- Goldwater and Nixon in 1964, 1968 and 1972 broke up the democrat solid south.
- targeted white southerners who felt betrayed by the Democratic party support of civil rights in the 1960s.
71
Why was 1932 a realigning election?
- For the past 30 years, Republicans had been the dominant party - won solid sweeps in the past 3 elections outside of the democrat solid south.
- 1932 flipped this because of the Republican Party's response to the Great Depression under Herbert Hoover
- Result of the 1929 financial crash.
- 1928, Republicans had won by a margin of 6 million votes.
- 1932, Democrats had won by a margin of 7 million votes.
- Roosevelt promised an interventionist government with his 'New Deal'.
- Leads to the Democrats controlling the Senate for all but 4 years between 1932 and 1980.
72
What was the most expensive senate rave in 2020?
- South Carolina.
- $227 million.
73
How much did Michael Bloomberg spend in the 2020 primary?
- Over $1 billion.
- Bernie Sanders raised close to $170 million.
74
How much was spent on TV ads in the 2020 presidential election?
- $750 million.
75
How much did Trump spend personally on his 2016 campaign?
- $66 million.
76
What is the advantage of self funding a campaign?
- freedom from influence or favours from donors and therefore accusations of corruption and cronyism.
- however it does encourage a view that US politics is purely an activity for the wealthy.
77
How much did Musk spend in 2024 on the Trump campaign?
$200 million.
78
What is hard money?
- Money contributed directly to a specific candidate.
79
What is hard money limited by?
Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (2002).
- No individual can donate more than $2800 per year to a single candidates own campaign.
- Can't give more than $35,000 annually to national political party.
80
What are Political Action Committees (PACs)?
- Informally support candidates.
- They can raise and distribute money - maximum of $5,000.
81
What is soft money?
- Money that is spent indirectly to promote candidates or to attack opponents.
- One criteria is that Super PACs or other groups can not formally coordinate with a candidate's own official campaign.
82
Examples of Super PACs in the 2020 election?
- Biden supported by Future Forward USA.
- Preserve America PAC supported Trump.
83
What percentage of those in Trumps administration were campaign donors?
- 38%.
84
Who was the last candidate to accept federal funding for a campaign?
- McCain against Obama in 2008.
85
What is federal funding?
- An attempt to introduce voluntary caps on campaign expenditure by matching federal funding for campaigns in return of a candidate limiting their overall spending.
86
In 2020 how much did incumbent senators raise in relation to challenger senators?
- Incumbents - $22.2 milllion.
- Challengers - $3.7 million.
87
Argument that campaign finance in the US should be regulated:
- Election expenditure had gotten out of control - $14 billion in 2020.
- Emphasis on fundraising distracts representatives from legislating - more of an issue for the house.
- Cost of election means that only the personally rich or the well connected can enter politics.
- Business groups outspend labour groups 7:1.
- Supreme courts ruling in citizens united has failed to fix campaign finance.
- Matching funding has not worked.
88
Argument that campaign finance in the US should not be regulated?
- Inflation is not continual - 2024 election went down in cost at $5.5 billion.
- Campaign finance reform is unnecessary since candidates already listen to a wide range of voters.
- Fundraising and donations are a crucial element of the democratic process.
- Nearly all political funding is traceable.
89
What are the main forms of direct democracy in the US?
- Ballot initiatives.
- Recall elections.
- Referendums.
90
How are ballot initiatives used in the US?
- They are laws/measures proposed by voters.
- Put on ballots at election times.
- Cover a wide range - legalisation of marijuana, same sex marriage.
- Most significant and widely used form of direct democracy in the US.
91
What are recall elections?
- Voters can force an elected state official to (mayor, judge, governor) to face re-election before the end of their term.
- The last governor to be successfully removed in a recall election was Gray Davis in California - he was replaced by Arnold Schwarzenegger.
92
How are referendums used in the US>
- Occur when a state legislatures passes a law bur are required to submit them to voters for approval.
- 2018, Alabama, 78% of voters supported an amendment to the state constitution allowing the display of the Ten Commandments in the state courthouses.
93
In 2020 how much was spent on campaigning for direct democracy measures?
$1.2 billion.
- $220 million was spent on a California ballot initiative over wether app-based taxi drivers should be classed as employees.
94
Argument that direct democracy works well in the US:
- Allows voters to have a direct sat.
- It allows variations in laws between different states.
- It improves accountability at a state level.
- Additional check and balance to state executives.
- Increases opportunities for political participation.
- Allows for pressure groups to influence legislation.
95
Argument that direct democracy does not work well?
- Lead to the tyranny of the majority - eg requiring driving tests to only be in English.
- Lead to inconsistencies and variations in laws between states - eg Obergefell verdict.
- Promotes a democratic overload - makes ballots too long and complicated.
-Turnout is often low.
- Parties can use direct democracy to influence the outcome of other elections.
- Democrats used an initiative on the legalisation of cannabis to attract younger liberal voters to vote for incumbent senator Heidi Heitkamp.
- Ordinary voters may not always understand complex laws.
96
Examples of split ticket voting in the 2020 election?
- Republican Susan Collin held her seat, whilst Maine itself voted for Biden.
97
Evidence of split-ticket voting becoming less common?
- In 2020, just 16 districts split their vote - a record low of under 4% of house districts.
98
What are the reasons for split-ticket voting?
- It reflects preferences for personalities over parties.
- US parties have traditionally been quite broadchurch - less true today.
- High number of elected offices provides people with more opportunities to split their ballot.
99
What are the main consequence of split-ticket voting?
- Can lead to divided government.
- It can split the senate delegations - 2020 Ohio, Montana and West Virginia were among 6 states with split senate representation.
100
Why has split ticket voting declined?
- Widening divided between democrats and republicans on fundamental political values.
- Increased partisanship.
101
Evidence of low turnout in US elections?
- 2016, turnout of 55.7%.
- 2024 - turnout of 63.7%
102
What are the structural features that cause low turnout in US elections?
- Requirement for American to proactively register to vote.
- In some states ex-felons are barred from voting
- Some states make postal voting difficult - 2020 68% of votes were cast through post.
- Some states have tougher laws on voter - Georgia has pursued an active campaign of luring voter rolls - 2012-2018 removed 1.4 million voter registrations.
103
What are the reasons for low voter turnout in the US?
- Lack of choice.
- Majoritarian system discriminates against third parties and independents.
- Voter fatigue.
- Political efficacy - people feel that their vote changes very little.
- many state and districts are uncompetitive.
104
Why does low turnout have a significant impact in primaries?
- Small minority that do vote tend to be the most ideologically extreme.
- Leads to candidates pitching the more extreme wings of their respective parties.
