The Electoral Process And Direct Democracy Flashcards
(246 cards)
1
Q
Define electoral college
A
Institution established by founding fathers
Indirectly elect president
2
Q
Who usually wins the electoral college votes
A
Candidate who wins the popular vote
3
Q
Give an example of when a candidate who won the popular vote didn’t win the the electoral college vote
A
Hillary Clinton 2016 won popular vote by 3 million
Trump won electoral college (304)
Hillary (227)
4
Q
How many votes did Clinton win in 2016
A
65,800,000+
5
Q
How many votes did Trump win in 2016
A
62,900,000+
6
Q
How are electoral votes distributed
A
Every state gets 2 votes reflecting no. Of congress members of each state
Plus no. Of representatives
7
Q
How many electoral college votes does California have
A
55 (2+53)
8
Q
How many electoral college votes does Wyoming have
A
3
9
Q
How many electoral college votes are there in total
A
538
10
Q
How many electoral college votes does a candidate need to secure to win presidency
A
270
11
Q
How are electoral college votes distributed amongst candidates
A
Candidate which wins popular votes gets all electoral college votes for that state
12
Q
Which two states don’t use a ‘winner takes all’ system for electoral college votes
A
Maine and Nebraska
13
Q
Why do Maine and Nebraska not have to follow the winner takes all rule with electoral college votes
A
It’s only a ‘rule’
Not in the constitution
Convention that developed in 19th century
14
Q
When do electors (members of electoral college) meet in their state capital
A
The Monday after the second Wednesday in December
15
Q
Who counts the electoral college votes
A
Vice President
16
Q
Who had to announce their own defeat as Vice President
A
Al Gore
6th January 2001
Lost by 271 to 266 (George W Bush Texas)
17
Q
What year was there nearly a 269-269 split of electoral college votes
A
2000
18
Q
How would the president get chosen if there a split in electoral college votes
A
President elected by House
Between 3 candidates wi most electoral college votes
Each state 1 vote
Need 26/50 votes
19
Q
How would the Vice President get chosen if there was a split in electoral college votes
A
Senate from two candidates with most electoral college votes
Each senator gets vote
Winner 51/100 votes
20
Q
Which two years have the electoral college failed to come up with a winner
A
1800 and 1824
21
Q
What are the strengths of the electoral college
A
Preserves voice of small population states
Promotes two horse race
22
Q
What are the weaknesses of the electoral college
A
Small states over rep Winner takes all distorts Unfair to 3rd parties Rogue electors Vice and pres from different parties
23
Q
How does the electoral college preserve the voice of small population states
A
Secured them at least three electoral college votes
Votes aren’t lost in the popular vote along due to big states
24
Q
In 1788 how many electoral college votes did the smallest and largest populated states have
A
3 and 12
4 times greater
25
In 2016 how many more electoral college votes does California get compared to Wyoming
18X more
26
Why does the electoral college promote a two horse race
Winner takes all votes
| 26 of 39 elections 1864-2016 the winner gained more than 50% of popular vote
27
How many people does each elector represent in Wyoming and California
Cal- 713,000 people
Wyo-195,000
Smaller states over represented
28
How did the electoral college distort Bill Clinton’s result in 1996
49% of popular vote
| 70%+ of ECV
29
How many out of the seven elections between 1992-2016 have the electoral college distorted the results of
5
30
What two years did a candidate win the popular vote but lost the electoral college votes
2000-al gore
| 2016- Clinton
31
Al gore and Bushs’ popular vote % in 2000
Al gore-48.4%
| Bush-48%
32
What % of the popular vote did Clinton and trump get in 2016
Clinton-48.2%
| Trump-46.1%
33
Why is it such a scandal that trump won 2016
Clinton got over 3 million votes more than him
34
Who ran as an independent in 1980
John Anderson
| 6.6% popular vote
35
Who ran as an independent in 1992
Ross Perot
| 18.9% popular vote
36
Who ran as a Green Party candidate in 2000
Ralph Nader
| Won over 3 million votes
37
Which independent and 3rd party candidates never got any electoral college votes
Ross Perot
John Anderson
Ralph Nader
38
Which state did Perot fail to gain over 10% of the vote in
Mississippi
Every other he got over 10%
1992
39
Who ran as an American Independent candidate in 1968
George Wallace
13.5% of popular vote
Less than Perot in 1992
40
Why did George Wallace as a 3rd party candidate manage to win electoral college votes
Support was concentrated in Deep South
41
How many electoral college votes did George Wallace receive
45 over 5 states
42
What is a rogue elector
Elector casts ballot for candidate other than one who won popular vote in their state
43
How many elections since 1968 have had rogue electors
7
44
Out of the 7 occasions when there was faithless electors how many of these only had one rogue elector each time
One
45
In 2016 how many Clinton electors were dismissed Colorado
Three
| Refused to vote for designated candidate
46
In total how many rogue electors were there in 2016
5 Clinton
| 2 Trump
47
If there were no rogue elector in 2016 how should the result of looked
306-232 rather than 304-227
48
Give an example of when there could have been a president and VP from different parties
2000
House could’ve chosen Bush
Senate could’ve chosen Joseph Lieberman (dem)
49
What are the possible reforms of the electoral college
Direct election
Congressional district system
Proportional system
50
In the last 5 elections how many presidents didn’t win the popular vote
Two
51
What was the headline of the editorial in the New York Times
19 December 2016
‘Time To End The Electoral College’
52
Why was the headline of the New York Times a significant headline for that day
19 December- day electors cast their ballot for trump/Clinton
53
What did the New York Times state about what people think of the electoral college
‘Americans would prefer to elect the President by direct popular vote, not filtered through the antiquated mechanism of the Electoral college’
54
What did the Washington Posts’ national poll say on the matter of electoral college in 2007
72% supported popular vote election
| 23% opposed
55
What’s the problem with direct election as a form of electoral college reform
Multiplicity of canidates
| Winner likely to get well below 50% of vote
56
How could the problem of the winner having less than having 50% of the popular vote be overcome (electoral college reform)
Run off between two favoured
| Do Americans want another process added?
57
What would bring about the reform of having direct elections rather than electoral college
Constitutional amendment
Need 2/3 states
Not likely, small states ‘wedded’ to electoral college
58
What is the congressional district system
Award 1 ECV to a candidate for each congressional district
| 2 electoral votes for state winner
59
In 2016 how did Maine split its electoral college votes
Clinton won state so got 3
| Trump won presidential vote in congressional district so got one
60
How would’ve the congressional district system effected the 2012 if it were used in all states
Obama would’ve lost to Romney
Would’ve got 264 instead of 332
Romney- 274 instead of 206
61
Overall what kind of result does congressional district system produce
Results would only be marginally different
62
What kind of result would the congressional district system produce in 2000
Less proportionate
| Gore would’ve lost by 38 rather than 4
63
What would the congressional district system do to bushs’ win in 2004
Exaggerated winning margin
64
How many votes did Romney lose to Obama in 2012
5 million
65
How did Obama’s support make him win in 2012
Won fewer districts but with bigger margins
| Romney won more but smaller margins
66
Give examples of districts Obama and Romney won
Ohio- Obama 4 Romney 12
| Pennsylvania-Obama 5 Romney 13
67
What % of the vote did Obama beat Romney by in Ohio and Pennsylvania in 2012
O- 51%-49%
| P- 52%-46%
68
Why would Americans not implement congressional district system
Just as flawed as electoral college
69
How would the proportional system work instead of electoral college
Proportional to the popular vote in each state
70
Would the proportional system abolish the electoral college
Yes
71
What is the benefit of the proportional system as opposed to electoral college
Fairer on third parties
| People more likely to vote for them
72
What is the disadvantage of the proportional system
Winner less likely to have a majority
| Have to have run off election/ go to congress
73
when do presidential elections occur
every 4 years
if dies, vice takes over
in article II constitution
74
what are the 7 stages of the presidential election process
```
invisible primary
primary+caucuses
choosing VP
party conventions
general election campaign
election day
electoral college voting
```
75
what are some constitutional requirements that presidents need
natural born citizen
over 35
residency qualification 14 years
76
what are the 'extra constitutional' requirements a candidate needs to become president (8)
```
political experience
major party endorsement
certain personal characteristics
ability to raise large sums of money
effective organisation
oratorical skills
sound+relevant policies
```
77
how many candidates had political experience in the 2016 race
22 candidates
11 state gov
8 senate
78
who was 1st pres to have no political or military experience
Trump
79
who were some 2016 candidates who did have political experience
Rick Perry
| Jed Bush
80
examples of independent candidates who failed due to no major party endorsement
George Wallace 1968
Pat Buchanan 200
Gary Johnson 2016
81
what personal characteristics helps candidates
white males
married
3/8 republican candidates had divorced+remarried
82
candidates who have been able to finance their own campaigns
Ross Perot 1992
| Steve Forbes 2000
83
how much did Clinton raise in 2016
$700 million
| according to open secrets website
84
who said 'im no good at television'
Walter Mondale
1984
relates to telegenic skills
85
even though Trump didn't have clear policies how did he gain support
targeted key areas e.g immigration reform
| make america great again
86
invisible primary
period between candidates declaring an intention to run for presidency and the first primaries/caucuses
87
why is the invisible primary important for candidates
candidates for party chosen by ordinary voters
chance to get name recognition+money
put together organisation
88
what is there a correlation between relating to invisible primaries
person leading polls at end of invisible primary, most likely to win presidency
89
stages of invisible primary
announcement
televised debate
fundraising
90
who was the first major candidate to announce his candidacy in 2016
Ted Cruz, Texas
23rd March 2015
Republican
91
how many declared republican candidates were there by the end of july 2015
17
92
when did Hillary Clinton accounce her candidacy for 2016
12 April 2015
| next three months 4 democrats joined
93
how many TV debates were there in the invisible primaries for 2016
6 August 2015-Feb 2016
7 tv debates between republican candidates
16 in 2011
94
give an example of a tv debate damaging their campaign
invisible primaries 2011
Rick Perry, Texas
forgot 3rd department he would shut down
ended bid in 2012
6th New Hampshire Primary less than 1% vote
95
example arguing against the use of tv debates
ben carson 4 days before 2016 primaries
| 'we're deaing with sound bites as opposed to being able to explain something in depth'
96
what name is given to the money raised in the invisible primary
war chest
97
how much money did trump raise and donated himself 1 Jan 2015- 31 Jan 2016
raised $25.5 mill
donated $18 mill
Ben Carson raised most in this period $57.9- didn't win single primary
98
how much had Clinton and Sanders raised by the end of Jan 2016
C-$130 mill
S-$96
expected clinton to raise more bc her name recognition+structure
99
example where invisible primary front runner didn't win candidacy
2004 democrats Howard Dean Vermont, crashed out
| Dec 2008 Clinton 15% point lead over Obama(dem) + Giuliani 10% point lead over McCain
100
examples of where invisible front runner did win candidacy
Clinton 14 point lead over Sanders
| Trump 16 over Cruz
101
how many winners of the invisible primaries went on to be presidential candidate in last 8 elections
Repub 7/8 2008 only exception
| Dem 5/7 '88,'04,'08
102
presidential primary
state based election
| chooses party's candidate for presidency
103
presidential caucuses
state based series of meetings
choose party's candidate
attract unrepresentative+lowturnout
held by thinly populated by geographically large states
104
how many caucuses were in 2016
republicans 10 states
democratcs 14 states
usually more ideologically extreme voters
105
example to show caucuses attract more ideologically extreme voters
Sanders liberal wing democrat
68% Kansas Caucuses
82% Alaska
Averages 66% > Clinton's 33%
106
what are the two functions of the primaries
show popularity of presidential candidates
| choose delegates to go to national party conventions
107
super Tuesday
Tuesday in Feb/march no. of states coincide primaries+caucuses to gain influence
New Hampshire hold early to give prominence
108
2016 super tuesday
1st tuesday march
| 11 states arranged primary+caucuses to coincide
109
front loading
earlier primaries+caucuses to try an increase importance
| 1980 before end of march=11 states, 2008=42
110
example of a state which has moved its primary
california 1980= june 2008=feb
New York April to Feb (same yrs)
5 Feb 2008=55% delegates to both conventions had been chosen
111
2016 front loading
decreased
March 2016 32 states voted
NY,PEN,CAL still to vote (big states)
112
closed primary
primary which only registered members of the party can vote in that party's primary
113
open primary
any voter can vote in either primary
114
issue with open primaries
```
2012 Wisconsin republican open primary
11% voters claimed democrats, among these voters Santorum beat Romney by 20% points
Romney 44% overall, Santorum 37%
Santorum more right wing than Obama
see him as an 'easier' opponent
```
115
why was cross over voting not an issue in 2016
both democrat and republican races were competitive
116
proportional primaries
delegates awarded to candidates in proportion to votes they get
get any delegates usually minimum threshold 10-15%
117
winner takes all primaries
most votes, gets all delegates
118
how many delegates did trump get in the Arizona and New Hampshire Primaries
Arizona=58 46.9% vote
New Hampshire=11 35.2% vote
won both primaries
119
who traditionally holds the first caucus
Iowa- seen as crucial
2016 Ted Cruz 27%, Trump 24, Rubio 23
put all 3 in serious position to win
Clinton marginally won
120
significance of the Iowa caucus
no candidate won presidential nomination without Iowa since 1992 (Bill Clinton came 4th)
121
since 1980 how many republican iowa winners went on to become nominee
```
2 out of 7
Bob Dole (1996) and George W Bush (2000)
```
122
why has the importance of the iowa caucus increased
```
population growth (29th/50 for growth rate 2010-2016)
6/7 iowa winners became candidate in elections
```
123
New Hampshire primary
used to be said can't win white house without this one
Clinton, Bush, Obama all lost it
Trump won his
4 consecutive elections '92-'04 front runner didn't win primary
124
example that not just numbers matter at new hampshire primary
Clinton allegations, drug taking+draft dodging vitenam war
| still came 2nd 25% vote
125
importance of new hampshire primary
if winner=media coverage+money
14th Jan Obama cover story Newsweek
John McCain front cover 4th Feb newsweek
126
Benefits of winning Iowa caucus for Obama
$50 mill fund raise 1 month
| end of Feb 51-39% lead over clinton
127
incumbent presidents
2012 Virg,New York+Florida didn't bother wi democrat primary
rarely any opposition to incumbent e.g Bush 2004, Obama 2012
Obama 92% total democratic vote
128
opposition to the incumbent
1976,1980,1992
'92 Bush challenged by Pat Buchanan
Buchunan 37% New Hampshire primary
129
problems with opposition to incumbent
candidates can draw on weakness from first term
Bush's failed tax policy 'read my lips;no new taxes'
Buchunan 'read our lips; no second term'
130
voter turnout in primaries
Mcgovern-Fraser reforms=increased turnout
last pre reform vote= 12 million people (11% VAP)
2016=61 million (29% VAP)
2016 New Hampshire=52% turnout
2016 Louissiana=18%
131
turnout figures for caucus 2016
Kansas=5.5%
| Iowa=15.7%
132
what are the factors that affect turnout in primaries
demography
types of primary
how competitive race was
if nomination had been decided already
133
demography (factors affecting turnout in primaries)
better educated+higher income=likely to vote
North Carolina Republican Primary 2016=over half voters college degrees, 1/3 earned $100,00+, 3/4 45+
37% said they are very conservative
134
type of primary (factors affecting turnout in primaries)
11 state wi open primaries republican 2012= increase in turnout on 2008
Wisconsin up 92% + Mississippi up 105%
15 state closed primary (republican 2012)= only two increased
Connecticut down 61%
New York down 71%
135
how competitive the nomination race is (turnout in primaries)
```
competitive in 2016+2008
2016 primary states=28.5% Voter eligable
2008=30.4%
not competitive= 2012+2004
2012=14.5%
2004=14.7%
```
136
whether the nomination has been decided or not (turnout in primaries)
```
early primary=higher turnout
2008 NY repub primary 5th Feb
race still undecided-642,894 votes
2012 (same primary) 24th April
Mitt Romney presumed nominee=189,599 votes
(much less)
```
137
increased importance of primaries
candidates used to be decided by party bosses 50s+60s
had state conventions, only select group went
undemocratic+elitist
138
what triggered the election reforms
1968 election
neither repub or dem candidate that won primaries tobecome the presidential nominee
VP Hubert Humphrey won democrat nomination-hadn't entered any primaries
139
Mcgovern Fraser Commission
established by democratic party 1968
| recommended reforms to nomination process
140
what are the strengths of the new nomination process post 1868 (advantages of primaries)
increased participation
increased choice
open to outsiders
gruelling race
141
weaknesses with the new nomination process (disadvantages of primaries)
```
voter apathy+boredom
unrepresentative
too long
expensive
dominated by media
become personal battles
lack of peer review
super delegates
```
142
increased participation (strength of new nomination process)
1968 11.7 million people
1988 35 million
2016 61 million
143
increased choice (strength of new nomination process)
1968 5 candidates
| 2016 22 candidates
144
open to outsiders (strength of new nomination process)
Carter(76) Clinton (92) Obama (08) didnt initially have national reputation
Trump 2016
145
gruelling race (strength of new nomination process)
demanding test for demanding job
| 92 Tsongas fought back from cancer, people worried about physical resilience for presidency
146
Frank Bruni 2016 New York Times writing about nomination process (weakness of nomination process)
American Voters are displeased with the canidates they've been given
147
voter apathy and boredom in primaries (weakness of nomination process)
'04 17.2% when Bush running for re-election
| even when not incumbent 2000= 19% turnout
148
voters are unrepresentative of the voting age population
2012 Ron Paul libertarian republican won at least 10% vote in 40 primaries+caucuses
caucuses av=21%
primary av=12%
149
process is too long
| (weakness of nomination process)
1960 Kennedy 66 days before 1st primary
68 Nixon 40 days before
72 Mcgovern 414 days before
2016 Cruz 11 months before
150
process is very expensive (weakness of nomination process)
june 2016 Clinton totalled $275 mill
Sanders (opponent) $235 mill
Trump+Cruz just over $90 mill each by June 2016
151
process is too dominated by the media (weakness of nomination process)
intra-party tv debates
2016 pre primary debates influenced how nomination cycle developed
poll ratings rise+fall depending on debate
152
primaries can develop into bitter personal battles (weakness of nomination process)
McCain TV commercial accusing Bush as lying, likening Clinton
Bush; 'that's the lowest you can get'
153
lack of peer review (weakness of nomination process)
used to be selected by professional politicians
knew what qualities were needed
test of campaign rather than qualities 'to govern a democracy requires much more' columnist David Broder
Jeane Jikpatrick professional politicians 'uniquely qualified'
154
super delegates (weakness of nomination process)
Clinton nor Obama got gained absolute majority of delegate votes in primary+caucuses
need 2,210 to win nomination
155
super delegate
automatically appointed as uncommitted delegates to democratic national party convention
elected politician or party official
156
what were some of David Atkins points in his five point plan to reform the nomination process (2016)
no caucuses
all open primaries (voters not allied wi a party more likely to vote)
rotate order of primaries
157
when is the vice presidential candidate announced
before party convention
| used to be at it, Walter Mondale broke tradition '84
158
when were the 2016 running mates announced
Mike Pence
| Tim Kaine 3 days before their conventions
159
what are the three strategies for choosing VPs
balanced ticket
potential in gov
party unity
160
balanced ticket (choosing the VP)
2008
Biden 65 balanced Obama's 47
Biden served 36 years Obama >4 years
161
balanced ticket
paring of president and vice who will attract support for different reasons
making broadest appeal to voters
162
potential in gov (choosing VP)
what will they bring to white house not campaign
Bush choosing Cheney (had been white house chief of staff+secretary of defence) 2000
Bush no washington experience
why Trump chose Pence
163
party unity (choosing VP)
choose former rival for running mate
Reagan chose Bush 1980
rarely done, usually have opposing views
164
National party convention
meeting every 4 years
two major parties select president+vice candidates
decide party platform
lasts 4 days, july,august or september
165
where were the 2016 national conventions
Repub-Cleveland, Ohio 18-21st july
| Dem-Philadelphia 25-28th july
166
what are the formal functions of national party conventions
choosing presidential candidate
choosing vice
deciding party platform
167
what are the informal functions of national party conventions
promoting party unity
enthusing party faithful
enthusing ordinary voters
168
how many delegates were needed to win candidacy in 2016
Trump- 2,472 delegates, he needed 1,237
Clinton- 4,763 delegates, she needed 2,382
party confirms rather than chooses, most turn up as committed delegates
169
which year was there doubt about the candidate at a national party convention
republican 1976
Gerald Ford 1,187 votes
Reagan 1,070
if 60 delegates switched Reagan would've won
170
brokered convention
no candidate gets enough delegates during primaries and caucuses to have an absolute majority on first ballot
balloting continues till one does
during these ballots delegates can vote for whoever
171
How common are brokered conventions
1892-1952=8/16
1956-2016=0/16
decreases importance of conventions
172
when was a running mate last announced at a convention
republican 1988
173
deciding party platform (national party conventions)
document wi policies candidate will do if president
put together=Platform committee
holds hearings around country gather opinions helpwi draft
174
examples of hearings for deciding party platforms
2008 democrats over 1,600 listening sessions, 30,000 participants
republicans website 'share your thoughts, participate in polls and communicate directly with the policy-makers who will be shaping the party's agenda'
175
2016 contentious party platform debates
republican-'staunchly conservative' platform on homosexuality, same sex marriage+transgender issues
176
2016 democrat platform committee
struggle between clinton+sanders supporters
6 clinton+5 sanders+ 4 appointed by democrat national committee
platform included federal minimum wage increase $15, support for wall street reform
177
Is the party platform important
little reference made to it
not always much substance (2016)
'we believe in the constitution as our founding document'
'americans have earned+deserve a strong and healthy economy'
178
promoting party unity (informal function of party conventions) (2016 example)
bitter personal battles during campaign-need to be healed
Sanders speech 2016 'I am proud to stand with her tonight'
Romney+Bush didn't go-didn't support Trump
Cruz 'vote your conscience' not 'vote for Trump'
179
enthusing party faithful (informal functions of party convention)
organise meetings, make phone calls, transport voters to polls
2016 Michelle Obama Speech bought delegates to their feet
inspired them to go back+work for Clinton
180
enthusing ordinary voters (informal function of party convention)
not in voting hall, done through TV
acceptance speeches important as voters tune in
people payed little attention to race up until now
2016- Trump painted negative pic/ Clinton positive America
181
post convention bounce (informal function of party convention)
```
opinion polls immediately after convention
pre convention poll difference=bounce
Trumps bounce 1%
av for challenging party over 6%
incumbement= 6%
```
182
are post convention bounces significant
Larry Sabato university Virginia said post convention bounce only signals outcome of election half of the time
'you could flip a coin and be about as predictive'
183
even though declining, why are party conventions important
when voters start to tune in
| Professor Cal Jillson 'that what makes the convention critically important'
184
quote to exemplify how important money is in the general election campaign
Mark Hanna Republican political operative
'there are two things that are important in politics; the first thing is money, and i can't remember what the second one is'
185
how were campaign finance rules changed (general election campaign)
Federal Election Campaign act 1974
direct result of watergate
limited contributions that could be given
law found loopholes
186
soft money
money donated to political parties over candidates to avoid campaign finance limitations
parties spend the money on campaign activities
187
matching funds
federal money administered by federal election commission, given to candidates who met criteria and agreed to limitations
188
2008 matching funds
Obama didn't take them- free from raising+spending limitations
McCain (REP) took $84 mill matching funds
critical for Obama's win
189
2012 matching funds
neither Romney or Obama took them
1st time both major candidates opted out
2014 Obama signed legislation to end public finance of parties national conventions
190
Bipartisan Campaign reform act
national party committees banned from raising+spending soft money
increased individual limits
banned foreign contributions
191
what does PACs stand for
political action committee
192
political action committee (general election campaign)
raised limited amount of money and spends it to elect or defeat a particular candidate
193
Super PAC (general election campaign)
political committee makes independent expenditures but doesn't contribute to candidates
accept unlimited contributions
194
which three super PACs were dominant during the 2016 election
priorities USA action $192 to Clinton
| Trump= Rebuilding America now $22.6 million + Our principles PAC $19 million
195
hybrid PACs 2016 election
correct the record $10 million Clinton
| Great America PAC $28 million Trump
196
source of finance 2016 election
Clinton=71% individ donations, 3/4 big donors, 90% outside group money from priorities USA action
Trump=less than 50% from individuals, 2/3 small donors
197
where does the money go in election campaigns
organisation
campaigning
media
198
organisation (campaign finance)
Clinton=489 field offices
Trump=179 field offices
(offices spread through country)
Get out there and vote (GOTV) campaign people go door to door get people to vote
2016 34 states allow no excuse early voting
199
campaigning (campaign finance)
costs venue,travel,hotel
internal polling
Trump saw movement toward him in michigan so went there last minute to campaign
10,000/ 4.5 mill votes `
200
media (campaign finance)
crucial social media spending for trump toward end of campaign e.g negative ads at clinton in florida +blue wall states. took 5 off her which thought she'd win
201
layout of tv debates
3 90 mins between 2 major candi
1 90 min vp canidates
Carter+Reagan debate 1980 only clear example of debate being significant effect on final result
202
critisisms in Obama's TV debate 2012
Joe Klein Times magazine 'one of the most inept performances'
Gallup poll= 72% thought Romney won 20% Obama
203
evidence showing tv debates aren't that important
Clinton out performed trump 2016
| polls moved marginally+she still lost
204
what are the four rules of thumb about TV debates
style over substance
verbal gaffes are costly
good sound bites help
they're harder for incumbents
205
style is more important than substance (tv debates rule of thumb)
important how you say things
Trump coming across as rude, one liners saying 'wrong'
2000 Bush sighing and rolling his eyes
206
verbal gaffes can be costly (tv debates rule of thumb)
1980- Carter talking to daughter about nuclear weapons
| 2016- Trump wouldn't say if he'd respect result at end of 3rd debate (but didnt worry voters)
207
good sound bites are helpful (tv debates rule of thumb)
2012 Obama to Romney
| he favours 'foreign policy of 1980s,social policy 1950s + economic policy of 1920s'
208
debates are more difficult for incumbents (tv debates rule of thumb) (Romeny v Obama)
higher expectation e.g Obama 2012
do less debates rusty-Obama's last one 2008
2012 Romney done 19 wi republican candidates
209
october surprise
occurs late in campaign at disadvantage of a candidate, leaving them no time to recover before election
210
example of an october surprise
2016 re-opening case about Clinton's state department emails
211
when is election day
tuesday after first monday in novemeber
2016 47 mill did early voting
32mill in 2012
212
voter turnout
peak=67% 1960
2008=62.3%
2016=54%
213
swing states
ohio,florida+virginia
214
the incumbency factor
1796-31 pres have run for re-election
22(71%) won
H.W Bush, Ford+ Carter defeated for re-election (only 3 modern day all had failing economies)
incumbents don't waste time+money in primaries
215
timing of congressional elections
house- 2 years
senate-6 years
1/3 senate up for re-election every 2 years
midterms
216
constitutional requirements (congressional elections)
house= 25yrs, citizen 7 yrs+resident of state they;re repping (locality rule)
senate=30yrs, citizen 9
217
the nomination process (congressional elections)
secure nomination from party
congressional primary if challenged
only 8 incumbents defeated since '82
218
how many members of the house were defeated in congressional primaries in 2012
13
| BUT every 2 yrs 400 members seek re-election average 4-5 defeats per cycle
219
5 congressional election trends
```
power of incumbency
coaittail effect is limited
split ticket voting is declining
fewer competitive districts
presidents party tends to lose seats
```
220
the power of incumbency in congressional elections
2016
house 95% re-election rate
sentate 92% re-election rate
blip in early 90s voters wanted to get rid of the 'bums'
221
re-election rate range between 2000-2016
```
house= lowest 85.4% (2010) high 97.8% (2000)
senate= lowest 79.3% (2006) high 91.6% (2004)
```
222
why are there such high rates of re-election in congress
```
incumbent can provide services to constituents (favourable)
incumbent name recognition
fundraising advantage (incumbents raised over 7X more than challengers in 2016)
```
223
average amount raised by an incumbent and challenger in 2016 congressional elections
incu=$12.8million
| chall=1.8 million
224
coattails effect
extremely popular candidate at top of ticket, carries candidates for lower offices with them
2016 Trump helped Pat Toomey (Pen) Richard Burr (NC) Ron Johnson (WISC)
225
Trumps coattails
short, non existent
| 16/21 republican senate candidates won higher share of vote in their state then Donald Trump
226
split ticket voting
vote for candidate of two or more parties from different offices at same election
227
examples of split ticket voting
Arkansas, colarado, nevada bush republican pres but democrat to senate
New ham+Pen- John Kerry pres, repub to senate
228
whats happening to split ticket voting
declining
| 2016 all 34 states voted same way in pres+senate races
229
split districts
vote for different parties for house+pres
| 2016 only 23 districts elected repub to house but voted hillary for pres
230
most exaggerated split ticket in 2016
7th district minnesota
62% trump
democrat congressman Collin Peterson 53% vote
231
split senate voting (2 senates one from each party)
99=30 states split senate vote
2017=12
38 states don't have ssv
232
no. of competitive districts 2016
31 (1 in every 4)
233
significance of less competitve districts
-harder for control of house to change hands
2016 dems needed 30 gain, only 43 were competitive (gained 6 seats)
-representative of safe districts more likely to vote in line with party (Sandford Bishop won 61% vote so logical to support democrat line)
Darrell Issa won by 5,000votes, need to take into account both sides
234
evidence to show presidents party tends to lose seats in midterms
6 midterms 1994-2014
| lost an av of 25 house seats+4/5 senate seats
235
why does the president lose seats in the midterms
expressing disapointment with presidents previous term in office
2006 Bush's failure to conclude military operations in iraq successfully
236
proposition or initiative
citizens of a state place proposed law on state ballot (some states can also be constiutional amendments)
237
examples of propositions
Marijuana legalisation 2016
approved;Nevada, california+maine
defeated;arizona
Minimum wage increase, gun laws
238
how many states have a proposition process
24
239
difference between direct and indirect proposition
direct= if they qualify go directly to ballot
| indirect=state legislature decides, can reject or submit a different ballot or do nothing
240
general rules of propositions
filed with designated state official
formal title
circulated to gain required n0. of signatures
241
no. of signatures required for a proposition
alaska=10% total votes cast
| cal= 5%
242
no. referendums in 2012
115 state wide
| all can be on different issues e.g tax or constitution
243
popular referendum
if state passes law that people don't like
can ask to have referendum on it
law doesn't take effect until rederendum is done
244
recall elections
voters in a state can remove elected official from office before term is up
increase democratic accountability
allows 'buyers regret'
245
how many recall elections have there been
3
| 1921, 2003, 2012
246
2012 recall election
recall of Republican Scott Walker
beat apponent Tom Barret 53%-46%
triggered by changes over pension schemes and limiting collective bargaining rights of trade unions
