The Nuclear Crisis

Question 1

What are the three kinds of weapons of mass destruction ?

Answer 1

Nuclear

Biological

Chemical

Question 2

What is the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty ?

Answer 2

Irish origins - Irish Resolutions at the UN became NPT

1968 signatures, 1970 enters into force

190 parties

Non-parties: Israel, India, Pakistan, North Korea, South Sudan

Question 3

What are the three different statuses a state can have concerning the NPT ?

Answer 3

1. “Nuclear Club”

1.1 Nuclear Weapons States: US, UK, Russia,
China, France

1.2 Non-NPT Nuclear Weapons States:
Pakistan, North Korea, India, Israel
(undeclared)

2. Non-Nuclear Weapons States: all other states
3. Non-Members
   South Sudan has not signed NPT

Question 4

What are the respective arsenals of the “nuclear club” ?

Answer 4

USA: 4,075 / 5,400

Russia: 5,200 / 14,000

UK, France, China: 160-400

India, Pakistan, Israel: 60-200

North Korea: 60

Question 5

What are the NPT pillars ?

Answer 5

Pillar 1: Non-proliferation
– Articles I, II, III

Pillar 2: Disarmament
– Article VI

Pillar 3: Peaceful use of nuclear energy
– Article IV

The “deal” - everyone will start working to attain these objectives

Question 6

What is the IAEA, what does it do and who leads it ?

Answer 6

International Atomic Energy Agency

Rafael Grossi is at the head since 2019

In the past : Yukiya Amano (2009-2019) and Mohamed El-Baradei (1997-2009)

It is in charge of:

1. Verifies NPT observance
2. Safeguards Agreement
3. Ratify, verify and safeguard additional protocol (1990s) - 86 in force at the moment

Question 7

What is the South Korea nuclear discrepency ?

Answer 7

South Korea’s illegal nuclear activities revealed in 2004

1982 to 2000 experiments

There was no crisis, normal resolution

Question 8

What is article VI of the NPT ?

Answer 8

Cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.

The US, Russia, France, Britain, China are all in breach of this.

Question 9

Discuss the US’s modernizing of arsenal and what occurred under each recent presidents.

Answer 9

1. Bush’s Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW)
2. Obama’s “new” warheads and new delivery vehicles
3. Trump’s new lowyield nukes on submarines; loosen rules to use nukes

Question 10

What are the rules concerning nuclear sharing ?

Answer 10

NPT Art. I and Art. II

Each NWS undertakes not to transfer to
any recipient nuclear weapons or control
over such weapons directly or indirectly
and not in any way to assist any NNWS to
acquire nuclear weapons or control over
such weapons or explosive devices. (Art. I)

• NATO (US) sharing

Question 11

What are three prominent nuclear near-accidents ?

Answer 11

Cold War nuclear balance created lots of tensions and opportunity for nuclear near-accidents

1. Cuban missile crisis 1962 - submarine unloaded a missile, one officer refused to pass on the order to shoot back.
2. Soviet Union in 1983 - system false alarm
3. Norway 1995 - thought the sun’s reflection was a missile

Question 12

What are the seven nuclear free zones ?

Answer 12

1. Treaty of Semipalatinks - Around the Stans
2. Treaty of Tiatelolco - South America and Mexico
3. Treaty of Rarotonga - Australia and around
4. Treaty of Pelindaba - African Continent
5. Treaty of Bangkok - South-East Asia
6. Antartic Treaty
7. Mongolian Free Status

Question 13

There was a project to make the Middle East a nuclear free zone. Why did it not work out ?

Answer 13

1991 UN proposal

Israel (US) opposition

Sept. 2009 IAEA vote

100-1 (4) (ME NWFZ) (Israel; US-Canada-India-Georgia)

Question 14

What is the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty (1972-2002) ?

Answer 14

• Bans missile defense (interceptors)
• Idea is to dissuade superpowers from
  upgrading nuke arsenal to overcome
  defenses and from launching nuclear attacks
  given devastating counter-strike
• Bush withdraws in 2002, ABM is now dead

Question 15

What is the INF (intermediate-range nuclear forces) Treaty (1987-2019) ?

Answer 15

Bans missiles 500-5500km range

Good! Destroyed 2,700 missiles

2019: Trump ditches it, Putin follows

INF collapses, dangers for Europe

Question 16

What is START ?

Answer 16

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty—2010-
present

US-Russia reduce strategic weapons

1,550 warheads max by 2018

Monitoring and verification

Question 17

What are the authors (and date) of readings relating to this topic, along with the reading’s main point ?

Answer 17

1. Mercille (2008) – concerns the agreements made with Iran and discusses strategies such as the double-tracks strategies, while confirming that tensions and disputes are still occurring.
2. Arms Control (2017) – discusses the US’s nuclear arsenal focusing mainly on numbers and statistics.
3. Laub (2017) – discusses the JCPOA, the agreement, the US’s retreat and the role of domestic politics in the issue.
4. Chol-gi (2002) – gives a run-down of the nuclear history of North Korea.
5. Zak (2022) – focusses of the B61 bomb, it capabilities, locations, use for strategy etc.
6. Aum (2022) – suggests a shift toward a more proactive and conciliatory approach, advocating for bold measures to entice North Korea back to negotiations, emphasizing the potential benefits of engagement over isolation and pressure-based strategies.
7. Terry (2023) – response to threats from North Korea and their nuclear threats, Proposes a closer cooperation between the United States, South Korea, and Japan, along with efforts to disrupt North Korea’s revenue sources to address the growing threat posed by North Korea’s WMD program.
8. Beyond Parallel Website - there appears to be an inverse correlation between U.S.-DPRK diplomacy and the frequency of North Korean provocations in this 25-year period. That is, there is a correlation between periods when the U.S. is at the negotiating table with North Korea, in a bilateral or multilateral setting, and a decrease in DPRK provocations.