Theory Flashcards
(96 cards)
Credit risk
risk of economic loss resulting from borrower failure to make full and timely payments of interest and principal. Risk like inability to sell collateral at mkt price sufficient to meet issuer’s obligation in case of secured debt or potential incurrence of legal or other cost to collect debt are also credit risk faced by lenders. The key components of credit risk are the probability of default and the loss given default, and their product is expected loss.
Credit ratings
enable comparisons of the credit risk of debt issues and issuers within and across industries. are not used to determine bond price. Issued on behalf of issuer.
Risk difficult to capture in CR
litigation risk, environmental risk, and natural disasters. Leveraged transactions, such as debt-financed acquisitions (i.e., changes in the capital structure through large stock buybacks), are often difficult
to anticipate and thus to capture in credit ratings. Rating agencies may view complex risks very differently, resulting in divergent or split ratings between the agencies.
Non investment grade
Speculative grade or High yield bond
Pitfalls of relying solely on credit ratings
rating agency decisions may lag market pricing of credit risk, overlook key financial risks, and/or involve miscalculations or unforeseen changes not fully captured in a rating agency’s forward-looking analysis.
The premium, or yield spread, at which corporate bonds trade relative to default risk-free assets widens
when credit risk rises and narrows if credit risk falls. Because investor is fairly compensated when expected loss = credit spread. Bond prices and credit spreads often move faster than rating agencies
change their ratings (or ratings outlook) in response to changes in perceived
creditworthiness. Credit spreads change daily, whereas bond ratings, appropriately,
change less frequently
Credit spread changes affect holding period returns via two primary factors:
a) the basis point spread change and b) the sensitivity of price to yield as reflected by end-of-period modified duration and convexity. Spread narrowing increases holding period returns. At top of credit cycle spread is usually lower due to low credit risk
Credit Spread Risk
Risk of greater expected loss due to changes in credit conditions as a result of
macroeconomic, market, and/or issuer-related factors. Credit Spread is the spread an investor receives above risk free rate
Expected Loss
POD x (Expected exposure) x (1 - RR) = LGD x POD
POD driven by an issuer’s ability to service debt
based on both qualitative and
quantitative factors including Profitability, Leverage & Coverage
Expected Exposure (Exposure @ default). It is already net off collateral. But qn might give collateral separately pg 342
amount an investor may expect to lose in the case of default, which is usually
equal to the loan or bond face value plus accrued interest less the current market
value of available collateral.
Loss Given Default (% or $)
(Expected Exposure) x (1 - RR). Is largely a function of the nature and seniority of a creditor’s claim in a default scenario
Loss severity
1 - RR
For larger spread changes, the effect of convexity needs to be incorporated into
the approximation
%ΔPVFull = −(AnnModDur × ΔSpread%) + ½AnnConvexity × (ΔSpread%)^2
small, instantaneous change in yield spread
%ΔPVFull = −AnnModDur × ΔSpread
8 Cs of credit analysis
Capacity & Capital (Quantitative), Collateral, Covenants & Character (Qualitative), Condition, Currency & Country (general top down factors)
Source of Repayment
Unsecured Bond (CFO), Secured Bond (CFO & Collateral’s CF or sale) & Sovereign Bond (Tax revenue)
Illiquid vs Insolvent Borrower
Unable to raise the necessary funds to fulfill a debt obligation. They may not be able to tap credit lines, sell assets, or otherwise raise funding to make a timely debt payment vs whose assets are worth less than its liabilities
Credit migration risk (Downgrade risk)
risk that a bond issuer’s creditworthiness deteriorates, or migrate to lower rating
Important points
credit ratings primarily seek to assess expected loss, the market pricing of credit risk for distressed bonds is primarily focused on default timing and expected recovery rates. Credit rating outlooks tend to be more closely aligned with market
conditions than credit ratings. The longer the maturity, the higher the yield, as default risk tends to rise for longer maturities. Yield spread difference between IG bond ratings is generally narrower than the difference between IG and HY.
Reason for investing in HY bonds
Portfolio Diversification, Capital appreciation (Invest in eco downturn), Equity like return with low volatility
Mkt liquidity risk (TC associated with selling a bond)
Risk that price at which investor can actually transact differ from price indicated in mkt through bid-ask spread
Issuer specific factor that affect mkt liquidity risk
Issuer size & Issuer credit quality
Liquidity spread
difference in the bid yield and the offer yield