Theory - Economic Methodology Flashcards
(305 cards)
1
Q
What is logical positivism?
A
Logical positivism is a philosophical movement from the early 20th century that aimed to define and separate scientific knowledge from non-scientific or pseudo-scientific ideas.
2
Q
Where did logical positivism originate?
A
Logical positivism originated in Berlin and Vienna in the 1920s and continued into the 1950s in the United States.
3
Q
Positivism can also be called
A
empiricism
4
Q
What was the main aim of the logical positivist program?
A
It was to demarcate scientific knowledge, and to mainly distinguish science from pseudo-science
5
Q
What is the demarcation criterion rule?
A
It means that you can only accept analytic and synthetic a posteriori propositions or statements as scientific knowledge
6
Q
What characterizes analytic propositions?
A
Analytic propositions are tautological, meaning they are true by definition.
7
Q
Provide an example of an analytic proposition.
A
An example of an analytic proposition is “All bachelors are unmarried males.” since this is just the definition of a bachelor
8
Q
Are all valid mathematical and logical propositions considered analytic?
A
Yes, valid mathematical and logical propositions, such as “1 + 1 = 2” and “A → A,” are considered analytic.
9
Q
Can you provide examples of synthetic a posteriori propositions?
A
Examples of synthetic a posteriori propositions include statements like “My neighbors’ dog is aggressive” and “The color of the coffee I am drinking is light brown.”
10
Q
What is the basis for the truth of synthetic a posteriori propositions?
A
The truth of synthetic a posteriori propositions is grounded in our experience of the real world.
11
Q
In what circumstances are synthetic propositions considered true?
A
Synthetic propositions are considered true when supported by evidence obtained through empirical research.
12
Q
What role does empirical research play in determining the truth of synthetic a posteriori propositions?
A
Empirical research serves as the method to demonstrate the truth of synthetic a posteriori propositions, establishing their validity based on real-world experience.
13
Q
How do we define the term “analytic proposition”?
A
Analytic propositions are defined as statements that are true by virtue of their meaning or definition.
14
Q
Could you offer another example of a valid mathematical proposition that is considered analytic?
A
Certainly, “2 + 2 = 4” is an example of a valid mathematical proposition that falls under the category of analytic.
15
Q
How does logical positivism view statements that are not analytically true?
A
Statements that are not analytically true, referred to as synthetic propositions, are subject to empirical verification according to the logical positivist perspective.
16
Q
Could you provide additional examples of synthetic propositions in everyday language?
A
Certainly, examples include statements like “The temperature outside is 30 degrees Celsius” or “Water boils at 100 degrees Celsius at sea level.”
17
Q
What distinguishes the truth criteria of analytic and synthetic propositions in logical positivism?
A
Analytic propositions are true by definition, while the truth of synthetic propositions is determined by empirical verification based on real-world observations.
18
Q
How did logical positivists respond to these scientific developments?
A
In response to these developments, logical positivists denied the existence of synthetic a priori propositions in science and advocated for empirical investigation of all propositions not true by definition.
19
Q
Describe in 4 steps Karl Popper’s procedure:
A
- Posit a sweeping theory
- Specify what observations would prove you wrong (potential falsifiers)
- test critically trying to find falsifiers
- theory is true as long as step 3 fails
20
Q
What does it mean if scientific knowledge is fallible?
A
This means that it is considered true and scientific until proven otherwise
21
Q
What is the Falsification Principle proposed by Karl Popper?
A
The Falsification Principle, proposed by Karl Popper, is a method for distinguishing science from non-science. It asserts that for a theory to be considered scientific, it must be testable and potentially falsifiable.
22
Q
: How does the Falsification Principle apply to scientific theories?
A
The Falsification Principle suggests that scientific theories should be formulated in a way that allows for empirical testing, and they must be vulnerable to being proven false. Popper argues that a genuine scientific theory is one that can be subjected to experiments or observations that, if outcomes are different from predictions, could potentially falsify the theory.
23
Q
How does Karl Popper’s philosophy differ from that of the Logical Positivists?
A
Karl Popper’s philosophy differs from Logical Positivism in the way they approach the demarcation of science. While Logical Positivists, such as members of the Vienna Circle, emphasized verification as a criterion for meaningful statements, Popper proposed falsifiability. Popper argued that scientific theories should be formulated in a way that allows for the possibility of being proven false through empirical testing.
24
Q
According to Popper a theory must AT MINIMUM be:
A
logically consistent
25
What is the Humean problem of induction and why was it a challenge for scientific inquiry?
The Humean problem of induction, based on David Hume's skepticism, questioned the logical justification for making predictions about the future based on past observations, challenging the reliability of induction as a method for establishing scientific knowledge.
26
How did Popper's approach provide a more robust framework for scientific inquiry compared to traditional methods?
Popper's emphasis on falsifiability offered a more critical and rigorous framework for scientific inquiry by encouraging the testing of theories through deductive reasoning,
27
Define a Synthetic a posteriori statement
Not tautological or true by definition, but verifiable and true when confirmed by observation. For example ; The colour of my coffee is brown
28
Characteristics of a synthetic a posteriori statement:
- Not inherently true or self-evident
- Requires empirical verification
- Confirmed through observation
- Example: Scientific hypotheses and predictions
29
Synthetic a priori statement
Not tautological or true by definition, and not verifiable.
30
Synthetic a Priori statements were introduced by :
Immanuel Kant
31
Axiomatization -
characterization of scientific theory in first-order formal language (A(.)∀B(.), B∨D...)
32
Define demarcation:
distinguishing science from non-science
33
How many components are there in the Explanans according to the DN Model?
There are two components in the Explanans: Lawlike Proposition (1) and Conditions (2).
34
What does the DN Model suggest about the predictability of a phenomenon?
The DN Model suggests that if you have both the Lawlike Proposition and the Conditions, you should be able to predict the phenomenon (3).
35
Provide an example illustrating the DN Model using the terms Lawlike Proposition, Conditions, and Explanandum.
Potato harvests are falling (Lawlike Proposition). Supply is decreasing (Conditions). Therefore, the price of potatoes increases (Explanandum).
36
According to Popper knowledge is scientific if it is _________ and can be __________ by observation
logically consistent; disproven
37
How does Popper define scientific knowledge in terms of potential falsifiers?
Popper defines scientific knowledge as having potential falsifiers, meaning it must be logically consistent and have the possibility of being disproven by observation.
38
Using the example of the Earth revolving around the Sun, how does Popper illustrate the concept of falsifiability?
Popper illustrates falsifiability by explaining that the Earth's rotation around the Sun can be proven or disproven by observation, demonstrating the criteria for scientific knowledge.
39
How does the concept of falsifiability apply to the assertion about the relationship between money in circulation and average prices?
The concept of falsifiability is demonstrated as the assertion can be tested by observing whether an increase in the money supply corresponds to a rise in average prices, or if there is a discrepancy, thereby disproving the claim.
40
Why are claims that use words like subconscious regarded as non-scientific?
This is because terms like "subconscious" are unobservable and undefined as unconscious, making it impossible to prove or disprove through observation.
41
What is the crucial difference between a Popperian approach and a logical positivist perspective regarding blanket statements?
In a Popperian approach, any blanket statement is considered scientific, such as declaring that dragons do not exist. This is because it can be formulated as a general law and potentially disproven. In contrast, logical positivists may find such statements unscientific, as they argue that proving the non-existence of something is challenging.
42
Why is the conclusion that dragons do not exist considered scientific from a Popperian perspective?
In a Popperian perspective, the conclusion that dragons do not exist is considered scientific because it is formulated as a general law that can be potentially disproven. It meets the criteria of being testable and falsifiable.
43
For Popper not all theories are created equal. To be considered scientific , theories have to fulfill two minimum requirements. What are they?
- They have to be logically consistent
and
- They have to be falsifiable
44
What is the significance of empirical content in relation to the domain of a theory?
The empirical content of a theory increases as its domain becomes larger. A larger domain makes the theory applicable to more instances, making it both easier to falsify and more illuminating. This is because a broader domain allows for more potential falsifiers, and the theory becomes more informative about the phenomena it addresses.
45
How does the precision of a theory affect its falsifiability, according to Popper?
Popper suggests that as the precision of a theory increases, it becomes easier to falsify. A theory that specifies precise details or numerical predictions is more vulnerable to falsification, as any deviation from these exact predictions can falsify the theory.
46
Provide an example from classical economics to illustrate the concept of falsifiability in theories.
In classical economics, the example of Adam Smith's idea of a natural level is used. If a theory merely states that the interest rate falls, rises, or stays equal, it is not falsifiable because one of these outcomes is always true. However, if the theory becomes more precise, such as predicting a continuous fall until reaching a natural level, it becomes more informative but also easier to falsify.
47
What is the difference between a less illuminating scientific theory and a more informative one, according to Popper?
Popper distinguishes between less illuminating and more informative scientific theories based on the level of precision and the domain of the theory. A less illuminating theory may be scientific but lacks precision, while a more informative theory is both precise and has an increased domain, making it more applicable and potentially easier to falsify.
48
The higher the empirical content, the higher the class of ________
potential falsifiers
49
What exactly is the degree of corroboration?
how often have scientists tried to disprove a theory and have failed
50
The explanas is made up of the _____ and the _____
lawlike proposition and conditions
51
Describe the 3 ways in which empirical content can be increased:
1. You can increase its domain
2. You can make the predictions more precise
3. You can add potential consequences to the theory
52
The demarcation criteria primarily focuses on the ________ sciences
natural
53
______ laws are harder to find and less universal than laws in the physical sciences
Social
54
Social laws are _____ and _______ specifc
socially; historically
55
What belief of Hegel and Marx's did Popper entirely disagree with (with regard to historicism)
They claimed that history would unfold in a deterministic way and Popper viewed social laws as being historically specifc
56
What did Popper support in societal governance?
Popper supported an open society with laws for an ideal society but stressed openness to being wrong and constant public debate.
57
How does Popper see social scientists?
: Social scientists are different from natural scientists. They know there's no one truth, but they should always admit when they might be wrong.
58
The main theme in Poppa's thought, whether about social science or natural sciences, is the constant embrace of ______
uncertainty
59
There's a constant __________ process engaged in the social sciences. Social sciences should run on a different level because they cannot hope to find a __________ truth.
trial and error; universal
60
Popper argued that social laws are harder to find and less ________ than laws in the physical natural sciences.
universal
61
According to Popper, if there were a foolproof way to outsmart the stock market, widespread adoption of this strategy would lead to the market's collapse due to______ ____
mass adoption
62
Popper opposed what he saw as Hegel's and Marx's flaws in their _________. He argued that social laws are socially and historically specific and can be _______ if desired.
historicism; avoided
63
Popper opposed deterministic views, asserting that Marx and Hegel did not recognize the _____ and _______specificity of social laws, advocating for openness to critical voices and criticism.
social ; historical
64
The first method to handle a falsifying instance is to ______________ by reclassifying observations that contradict it.
The second method is to__________ by adjusting underlying theories when faced with falsifying instances.
Popper opposes finding excuses, deeming it forbidden and a sign of being a bad scientist.
The third method is to _____________, altering where the theory is applied, potentially lowering its empirical content.
In contrast to Friedman, Popper insists that when a falsifying instance is identified, the entire theory should be rejected and replaced.
defend the theory ;
react defensively;
change its domain
65
What is the first method discussed by Popper for handling falsifying instances?
The first method is to defend the theory by reclassifying observations that contradict it.
66
In contrast to Friedman, what does Popper insist should happen when a falsifying instance is identified?
In contrast to Friedman, Popper insists that when a falsifying instance is identified, the entire theory should be rejected and replaced.
67
What does Popper's perspective involve when handling falsifying instances?
Popper's perspective involves scientific revolutions, creating new theories that incorporate both previous insights and new facts.
68
What is recalibration, and how can it improve a theory?
Recalibration involves adjusting measurement instruments or operationalizations; it can lead to an improvement in the theory.
69
: How does reclassification contribute to theory improvem
Reclassification can enhance a theory, as seen when whales were reclassified as marine mammals instead of fish.
70
According to Kuhn, in order to become a member of the scientific community, individuals need to be interested in questions within the specific ________ of their field, such as how markets function for economists.
domain
71
The research domain, research methods, and criteria for good science are something that members of the scientific community need to ________ upon.
agree
72
Scientists are judged by their fellow scientists based on certain criteria for good science, including demarcation criteria, which are used to assess the ________ of the research.
quality
73
Kuhn describes the societal structure of science in terms of a ________ matrix, which consists of four elements, with the first being a ________.
disciplinary; paradigm
74
A paradigm is a leading example that researchers try to ________ in their work. In economics, the Marshallian cross is an example of a paradigm for charting markets.
emulate
75
What is a paradigm?
A paradigm represents a set of assumptions and practices that define a field of study or intellectual inquiry at a certain point in history.
76
Metaphysics in economics refers to beliefs that go beyond the ________ and the tangible. For instance, the belief that supply and demand curves exist cannot be proven or verified in reality, as demonstrated by the loanable funds exercises in macroeconomics.
physical
77
Supply and demand, as concepts, are considered ________ because they can't be seen, yet economists believe that markets obey rules based on them.
metaphysical
78
The disciplinary matrix is challenging to escape as individuals are indoctrinated from a young age through ________ examples.
standard
79
The use of specific markets in education aims to make the concept of supply and demand more ________ for students.
understandable
80
The disciplinary matrix's influence continues until individuals may lose their ability to think critically to some ________.
extent
81
The idea of firms as machines is introduced to make it easier to believe that firms can be fine-tuned, thus influencing the ________ in business economics.
metaphysics
82
According to Kuhn's policy, after graduation and during a PhD, a professor who supervises the research is responsible for the quality of the end work. If the work adheres to disciplinary rules, the supervisor may stimulate the researcher, but if the work is too original, the supervisor may cut them ________.
short
83
Scientific conferences play a crucial role in maintaining the disciplinary matrix. Presenting work that aligns with the established rules can enhance one's reputation, while presenting work that deviates may lead to neglect, ridicule, and difficulty in getting published. This ensures that the disciplinary matrix is ________.
kept intact
84
The disciplinary matrix molds individuals into a certain world view, convincing them that one way of viewing the world is the ________ one.
right
85
The metaphor of viewing a market in terms of supply and demand is used to illustrate the concept of ________.
Gestalt
86
What is Kuhn's view on truth in science?
Kuhn rejected the correspondence theory of truth, stating that truth is relative to the paradigm accepted by scientists.
87
What is the major source of disagreement between Kuhn and Popper?
The concept of normal science
88
For Popper what is the definition of a true scientist?
Being critical
89
Why did Kuhn disagree with Popper's belief that scientists are critical?
According to Kuhn science is developed with accordance to phases that are called paradigms
90
What are the 4 elements of a disciplinary matrix?
1. Paradigm
2. Metaphysics
3. Symbolic generalization
4. Values
91
Empirical content rises as statements become more :
general and more precise
92
The higher the number of potential falsifiers, the higher the:
empirical content
93
0. Does Popper hold that his methodology can be equally applied to the social sciences and the
physical sciences alike? Why (not)?
1. No. In Popper’s view science progresses by stating bold conjectures on cause and effect
relationships. In social sciences such cause and effect relationships are socially and
historically specific and subject to change. Therefore bold conjectures have less staying
power and speaking of trends or tendencies is the best one can do.
94
According to Popper, to allow for progress in science, immunizing strategies are ______ allowed.
not
95
What does "immunization" mean in the context of theories?
Immunization, in the context of theories, refers to the practice of upholding theories even when they have been found to be false.
96
What are some ways of immunizing a theory?
There are several ways to immunize a theory. One way is through ad hoc reclassifications of terms, such as changing the definition of a specific term. Another method involves making ad hoc changes to underlying theories. The last way is through an ad hoc change in the domain of the theory.
97
Can you provide an example of ad hoc reclassification as a method of immunizing a theory?
Yes, for instance, in the mentioned example, ad hoc reclassification could be done by changing the definition of the term 'profit.'
98
How does an ad hoc change in the domain of a theory serve as a method of immunization?
An ad hoc change in the domain of a theory involves specifying that the theory only applies to certain conditions or contexts. In the given example, this could be achieved by stating that the theory holds true only for companies in specific markets or those with a minimum number of shareholders.
99
According to Kuhn, when an observation seemingly contradicts key beliefs in the scientific community, it is termed as an ________.
anomaly
100
Instead of outright rejecting theories when anomalies are found, Kuhn suggests that scientists often employ ________ stratagems to protect their existing beliefs.
immunizing
101
Anomalies in science, such as the financial crisis in economics, may prompt scientists to try fitting the anomaly into the existing ________ of science, including standard paradigms, research methods, metaphysics, and criteria for justification.
mold
102
The financial crisis in 2007-2008, which challenged the belief that monetary variables could not influence the real economy, is considered a ________ event in economics
black swan
103
The inability of existing models to foresee the financial crisis led to a recognition that some anomalies may require a new way of viewing the world, taking distance from previous principles such as the classical dichotomy. This need for a new perspective is often termed a ________ switch by Kuhn.
Gestalt
104
Anomalies, like the financial crisis, may reach a point where the existing disciplinary matrix and beliefs of a community can no longer be repaired. This may lead to young scientists doubting their education and the beliefs of their discipline, potentially resulting in a ________ switch.
Gestalt
105
Kuhn describes a Gestalt switch as a moment when, using different principles, the world starts appearing completely differently ________.
all of a sudden
106
What is Karl Popper's stance when a theory fails to predict observations?
Popper asserts that if a theory fails to predict observations, it indicates a fundamental failure, and the theory should be entirely rejected.
107
How does Milton Friedman differ from Karl Popper regarding theories that do not predict accurately?
Friedman disagrees with Popper and argues that if a theory fails to predict a specific set of observations, it does not necessarily mean the entire theory is invalid; instead, it might only be limited in its scope for predicting certain phenomena.
108
According to Popper, what is the appropriate course of action when a theory is unable to make accurate predictions?
Popper recommends dismissing the theory entirely when it fails to predict observations, as it indicates a significant flaw in the theory.
109
How does Friedman's perspective contrast with Popper's in terms of handling theories that do not predict certain phenomena?
Unlike Popper, Friedman believes that if a theory fails to predict a particular class of phenomena, it doesn't warrant the complete rejection of the theory; instead, it may indicate limitations in its predictive capabilities for specific cases.
110
According to Popper's criteria for scientific statements, why would he consider the statement "If more Euros can be bought per Dollar, the European balance of trade with the US improves, while the US trade balance with Europe deteriorates" as highly scientific?
Popper would consider this statement highly scientific because it involves multiple observable consequences and is specific enough to be subject to empirical testing, aligning with his principle of falsifiability.
111
Popper gave two reasons why social laws may be difficult or impossible to find (or even non-existent). They were:
Societies are always in some stage of development. Laws that apply to one stage, may not apply to another, so social laws are always historically specific. 2) If a law-like regularity is found, people will change their behaviour in response, thus voiding the law.
112
According to Kuhn's "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions," how do social aspects influence the content of science?
Kuhn contends that disciplinary training in a field imparts a specific world view or Gestalt to individuals. This world view not only shapes the perceived relevance of questions but also dictates the acceptable research approaches for trained professionals.
113
In Kuhn's perspective, what role does disciplinary training play in shaping the content of science?
Kuhn argues that disciplinary training bestows individuals with a particular world view (Gestalt), which not only influences the types of questions considered relevant but also prescribes the permissible research approaches within a specific scientific discipline.
114
In Kuhn's 1970 postscript to "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions," what components make up a scientific community's disciplinary matrix?
According to Kuhn, a disciplinary matrix in a scientific community comprises symbolic generalizations, a metaphysical part, values, and a paradigm.
115
According to Kuhn's postscript, what is the role of the metaphysical part in the training of individuals in a scientific community?
Kuhn suggests that the metaphysical part is involved in training as individuals make standard assumptions about entities and processes in the world while solving standard problems of the discipline.
116
What does Kuhn mean by a Gestalt switch, and how does he illustrate this concept?
A Gestalt switch, according to Kuhn, is when scientists adopt different principles, causing the world to suddenly appear entirely different. He illustrates this concept using the example of a picture that can be interpreted in two ways, similar to how scientists may switch their worldview when confronted with too many anomalies in normal science.
117
When anomalies accumulate to the point where the existing disciplinary matrix becomes difficult to repair, it may lead to doubt among young scientists about their ____________ and the beliefs of their discipline.
education
118
The financial crisis of ____________ challenged the long-held belief in economics that monetary variables could not influence the real economy, leading to a significant anomaly.
2008
119
Thomas Kuhn suggests that instead of outright rejection, scientists often employ ____________ when faced with anomalies, adapting existing principles to incorporate them into the scientific framework.
immunizing stratagems
120
A Gestalt switch, according to Kuhn, occurs when scientists adopt different ____________, causing the world to suddenly appear entirely different.
principles
121
Imre Lakatos aimed to synthesize Kuhn and Popper by introducing the concept of ____________ in his methodology of scientific research programs.
sophisticated falsification
122
Lakatos defines a research program as consisting of a hardcore and a protective belt. The hardcore encompasses all the ____________ and central beliefs of a scientific community.
disciplinary matrix
123
Imre Lakatos introduced the concept that a research program consists of two crucial components: a hardcore and a protective belt. The hardcore encapsulates the fundamental and central beliefs, forming the bedrock of a scientific community's understanding within a specific ____________.
research program
124
The hardcore, according to Lakatos, represents the stable and non-negotiable principles, assumptions, and theories that define the essential tenets of a scientific ____________.
discipline
125
In mainstream economics, an example of a hardcore belief might be the assumption that economic agents behave rationally in maximizing ____________.
utility
126
The stability and resilience of the hardcore are crucial elements in Lakatos' framework, providing a theoretical foundation that guides scientific inquiry and problem-solving within the specific ____________.
research program
127
The Timbergen vs Keynes discussion revolves around bias and the question of whether all causalities are known. Tinbergen's model is considered reliable only if ________________.
all casualties are known
128
Haavelmo suggested that we might discover permanent "laws" by observing causalities and advocated for measuring probabilities rather than exact values. He addressed the problem of passive observation by emphasizing the importance of waiting for a variable to change enough to ________________.
reveal its potential influence.
129
Milton Friedman criticized the idea that more variables lead to more precise theories, realizing that complex econometric models didn't predict better than "Naïve models." He advocated for creating new models that predict better without blindly adding more variables, similar to Marshall's approach of breaking down complex models into smaller bits and tackling them ________________.
one by one
130
What is one of the fundamental challenges faced in econometrics that distinguishes it from physics experiments?
No laboratory: we can't easily do experiments in a vacuum. Always other variables are there. It's not like physics.
131
How does the addition of more variables impact the certainty and complexity in econometrics?
More variables -> More certainty and but also more complexity.
132
According to the discussion on starting BIG or starting SMALL, what are the two contrasting approaches suggested by Vining from NBER, Timbergen, and Koopmans?
Start BIG (NBER or Tinbergen) or start SMALL on a theoretical basis and expand (Koopmans).
133
What was the traditional belief about achieving more precise economic theories, and what did Milton Friedman realize about the effectiveness of complex econometric models?
Previously, the idea was that if u want more precise theory u need more variables and thus control variables making it more complex. Friedman realized that complex econometric models didn't predict things better than "Naïve models," which were simple
134
Any absurd and unrealistic prediction or correlation that actually holds would be considered a ______ scientific model by Friendman's logic
good
135
The problem with econometrics is that you cannot ______ variables like in Physics
isolate
136
What is the primary challenge faced by econometricians when applying the scientific method to economic problems?
Econometricians encounter a formidable challenge due to the inherent difficulty in setting up experimental situations in economics, unlike the controlled experiments common in the natural sciences.
137
What is the Humean problem of induction and why is it a challenge for Logical Positivists (LP)?
The Humean problem of induction poses a challenge for LP because limited observations can never definitively justify limitless generalizations, suggesting that such generalizations are not scientific. LP acknowledges the necessity of such generalizations in scientific explanations.
138
How did Logical Positivists (LP) respond to the Humean problem of induction?
LP developed two responses to the Humean problem of induction. They began viewing these generalizations either as instrumental guidelines or probabilistically.
139
What is the main issue that LP faces in relation to the Humean problem of induction?
The main issue for LP is that the Humean problem of induction implies that limited observations cannot definitively justify limitless generalizations, challenging the scientific nature of such generalizations, which are essential in scientific explanations.
140
What are the two ways in which LP started viewing generalizations in response to the Humean problem of induction?
: LP started viewing generalizations either as instrumental guidelines or probabilistically as a response to the challenge posed by the Humean problem of induction.
141
What does inductive reasoning involve?
Inductive reasoning involves making generalizations based on specific observations.
142
According to Hume, what is the central difficulty posed by the problem of induction?
According to Hume, the central difficulty is the lack of a logical justification for assuming that the future will resemble the past, even if a consistent pattern has been observed in the past.
143
Keynes argued that Tinbergen's econometric approach relied too much on trial and error, lacking a solid ________ foundation.
theoretical
144
According to Keynes, Tinbergen's measuring assumed a complete understanding of all causal relationships in the economy, which Keynes deemed ________.
unrealistic
145
Keynes believed that Tinbergen's estimates of the effect of causal factors would be biased unless ________.
all causal factors were considered
146
Keynes raised concerns about the ________ problem, suggesting that Tinbergen's identified causal relationships might not always hold in the future.
invariance
147
In criticizing Tinbergen's econometric method, Keynes argued that Tinbergen's approach did not directly incorporate certain parameters, such as betas and gammas, into the equations at the beginning of the modeling process, making it more about measuring correlations than testing specific _________.
betas
148
According to Keynes, Tinbergen's econometric approach faced a potential problem in terms of the future, known as the ________ problem, making it uncertain whether identified causal relationships would always hold in future scenarios.
invariance
149
Keynes raised concerns about Tinbergen's approach, stating that Tinbergen's method was not informed by theory per se and relied heavily on ________ and error.
trial
150
In addition to the general to specific approach, Havelmo provided a blueprint for simultaneous equations econometrics and hypothesis testing, which became core elements of modern ________.
econometrics
151
. Havelmo proposed a strategy for finding economic laws, where variables such as y are affected by a large number of variables x1, x2, x3, and so on. The idea is to estimate the relation between y and the x variables, test their significance, and retain only those x variables that have a ________ effect on y.
significant
152
According to Havelmo, the models constructed in modern econometrics should include error terms to account for the fact that they do not capture the ________ perfectly.
data generating process
153
Havelmo suggested a strategy for finding economic laws involving the estimation of relationships between variables and subsequent hypothesis testing. If a stable relation between y and a few x variables is found, it may be considered a ________ in the data.
regularity
154
In Havelmo's strategy for finding economic laws, a potential problem arises when a variable, although potentially impactful, does not change in the observed data set, leading to its ________.
exclusion
155
Havelmo emphasized the importance of a ________ in addition to looking at past data when forecasting structural breaks or black swans in the economy.
theory
156
According to Havelmo, what is emphasized as crucial when forecasting structural breaks or black swans in the economy, in addition to examining past data?
: Havelmo emphasized the importance of a specific methodology or approach.
157
The debate known as the measurement without theory debates emerged between the NBR and the Kaus Commission. Tjalling Koopmans, the director of the Kaus Commission, criticized Burns and Mitchell for lacking a theory about the relations between different economic variables, emphasizing the importance of having a theoretical framework. Koopmans used the term "__________" to describe Burns and Mitchell's approach.
measured a lot of things without theory
158
. Havelmo suggested a strategy to find economic laws by assuming that a variable (y) is possibly affected by a large number of variables (x1, x2, ..., xn). He proposed estimating the relation between y and the x variables, testing which x variables have a significant effect on y, and only keeping those x variables that have a significant effect. If this yields a stable relation, it could be considered __________.
an economic law or a regularity in the data
159
. In the Keynes-Tinbergen Debate, Keynes argued that Tinbergen's method assumed a complete understanding of all causal relationships in the economy, which Keynes deemed unrealistic. According to Keynes, this assumption would lead to __________.
omitted variable bias, as the model's measurements would only be accurate if all causal connections were known in advance.
160
Rutlech Vining, an NBER fellow, responded to Koopmans' criticism by stating that the Kaus Commission's theoretical model was too simple to capture the diversity displayed by the data. Vining argued that descriptive statistics are useful, comparing them to the use of a microscope by biologists. According to Vining, descriptive statistics help __________.
discover hypotheses that may be worked out in theories and eventually estimated and tested.
161
Mitchell from NBER argued against constructing a single mathematical model for all business cycles, stating that such an approach is problematic because __________.
No theory can adequately describe every business cycle, as each cycle has unique characteristics and variations.
162
Mitchell countered the criticism by asserting that the Kaus Commission's (Koopman's) theoretical model was __________.
too simplistic to capture the diverse patterns displayed by the data.
163
What is the role of the "hardcore" and "protective belt" in Lakatos' view of sophisticated falsificationism?
In Lakatos' sophisticated falsificationism, the "hardcore" represents the foundational assumptions of a discipline, while the "protective belt" allows for the development of theories that may face potential falsification. Elaborate on this concept.
164
How does Lakatos suggest dealing with falsifications without immediately rejecting a theory?
Lakatos recommends falling back on the "hardcore" assumptions when faced with falsifications.
165
How can various ways of doing science coexist in a rational manner, according to Lakatos?
Lakatos suggests that different ways of doing science can coexist, but the most progressive research program, capable of solving problems effectively, will attract the most support.
166
How does Lakatos distinguish between a degenerating and a progressive research program?
Lakatos differentiates based on their ability to solve novel problems. Progressive programs attract attention, while degenerating ones struggle to contribute meaningfully.
167
What makes a research programme progressive?
First, it should be theoretically progressive. This means that each new theory in a sequence should go beyond the previous one by predicting new and unexpected facts. In simpler terms, each theory should bring more to the table than the one before it.
Secondly, it should be empirically progressive. This means that some of the new predictions made by the theory should actually be proven true through observation or experimentation. In other words, the theory shouldn't just make random guesses; it should make accurate predictions that can be confirmed by real-world evidence.
168
What is the meaning of a novel prediction?:
A prediction is considered novel if the theory not only forecasts something that hasn't been predicted by previous theories in the sequence but also if the anticipated observation is not predicted by any competing program that might be emerging, and it's not aligned with the commonly accepted beliefs or ideas.
169
Thanksgiving (Canada)
Second Monday in October
170
Imre Lakatos did not agree that paradigm shifts were that _________
irrational as Kuhn had previously proposed.
171
Lakatos believed that a scientific research program is made up of two parts. What are they and what does each part consist of?
The hard core - so the assumptions that cannot be adjusted and they define the research program; the hardcore comprises the central, immutable principles guiding scientific inquiry,
The protective belt - so the assumptiosn that can be adjusted
172
Is the market converging to an equilibrium part of the hard core or the protective belt and why?
It's part of the hard core; it's a fundamental assumption in classical and neoclassical economic theory
173
According to Imre Lakaos a paradigm shift is a rational choice to abandon a ________ research program in favour of a progressive research program
degenerating
174
According to Lakatos scientific revolutions occur when a ______ programme is replaced by a __________ one.
degenerating, progressive
175
According to Lakatos, each theory within a programme contains a core set of assumptions, termed the "________," surrounded by a set of auxiliary hypotheses, forming a "_________."
hardcore, protective belt
176
According to Lakatos what happens when a theory within a research programme is refuted/falsified?
The hard core assumptions are not discarded. Instead, they scrutinize and modify auxialiary hypotheses within the protective belt.
177
How does Lakatos's view contrast with Kuhn's idea of scientific dominance by a single paradigm?
Lakatos argued that science typically involves competing research programmes, contrary to Kuhn's notion of dominance by a single paradigm.
178
What is the meaning of the "naturalistic turn" for the Sociology of Scientific Knowledge?
The naturalistic turn focuses primarily on studying scientific communities with the same objectivity applied to studying natural phenomena
179
What fundamental assumptions guide the Sociology of Scientific Knowledge in understanding the nature of truth and scientific communities?
The Sociology of Scientific Knowledge posits that truth is socially constructed and relative to the conventions of scientific communities. Key assumptions include: understanding the social context in which truth is created leads to understanding what is considered true or false; each scientific community develops a unique perspective or "gestalt" through training; and the "naturalistic turn" entails studying scientific communities with an objective lens akin to studying natural phenomena.
180
What are the 4 principles of the Edinburgh Strong Programme
Causality: Understand why scientists hold certain beliefs by exploring social, cultural, and institutional influences.
Impartiality: Approach all beliefs neutrally, postponing judgment on their truthfulness or rationality.
Symmetry: Treat the causes of both true and false beliefs equally, recognizing social factors' role in shaping scientific ideas.
Reflexivity: Apply the Strong Programme's principles to the study of SSK itself, ensuring researchers scrutinize their own biases and methodologies.
181
How is the view of McCloskey different compared to all other disscussed view in the course?
McCloskey approaches economics not as a science but as humanities
182
How is McCloskey view simmilar to SSK approach?
Both SSK and McCloskey's non-science view look not at theories of scientists but rather at their tools and practices -> Sociological approach
183
What are the 3 main types of appeals according to Rhetoric Approach? Explain all 3 briefly
1. Logos - logical appeals
2. Pathos - Emotional appeals
3. Ethos - appeal to speaker's authority or sincerity
184
what type of appeal in Rhetorical Approach would an economeetric model be?
Ethos
185
What does McCloskey think about positivism (sum it up in one key word)
Restrictive
186
What does McCloskey's view say about scientific methodology? What other rules does she underline?
There is no methodology, as you can do whatever you want and use any method to persuade someone. The only rule is to be civil and be open to others
187
McCloskey compares economists to ____.
Story-tellers.
188
Is the work of Klamer&Colander simmilar to McCloskey's? How do they see education and textbooks?
Klamer&Colander agree with and expand the work of McCloskey. Education is a structured type of communication and textbooks and the standarisation of content and prevent controversies
189
What is the basic idea of Postmodernism?
Basically critisize and question ppls fundamental beliefs and knowledge
190
How is Postmodernism simmilar to McCloskey
They both reject fundumental methodology, and assumptions about knowledge
191
What is the key point of Plularism
That postmodernists have a point, but there are some legitimate forms kf knowledge and not everything is bullshit
192
What is Relativism? Explain its key assumptions
The truth and knowledge not objective but relative to historical and social context.If we can understand historical/social context -> we understand why communties produce their version of truth
193
What are the 3 key statements in Plularism
1. Rejection of relativism
2. Rejection of reductionism
3. Methological pluralism
194
What is reductionism?
It means that there is one key concept in each field that fundumentally explains everything
195
What are SSK, ES and ESK. How do they differ?
They are 2 ways to understand the practices of science (not judhe theories/truth!!). SSK uses sociological approach while ES and ESK use economic approach
196
Explain what is meant by "Naturalistic turn"
Pre-Kuhn, in positivism ppl like Popper set up rules and methodology to get as close to objective truth. They would judge scientists and their behaviour to see if they work towards the truth. Post-Kuhn scientific community shifts towards observing and describing different communities and their POVs to understand their truths. There is no objective 1 truth. In this approach you can judge objecitivity and value of descriptions but not truth and scientists themselves.
197
The scientists of the SSK that within a scientific community be valued you have to _____ out but to be part of the group you have to ________
stand out; conform
198
What are the 2 main approaches to create objective descriptions in SSK?
1. Edinburg Strong programme
2. Laboratory Studies approach
199
What are the 4 priciples a scientist must follow in Edinburg strong approach? Explain them all.
1. Causality - nevel judge ppl at face value, this would lead u to insert ur judgement
2. Impartiality - ask long and hard questions to udnerstand: why are u doing this, what do?
3. Symmetry - Once u understand what makes a community successful , you know what can cause its demise.
4. Reflexivity - look at ur own work carefully. judge it. Why do u think ur reserach and they way u conducted it was a good idea? Why was causality and impartiality a good idea?
200
Why was the Edinburgh Strong Programme described as "strong"?
Because they took on a stricty naturalistic approach by viewing scientists in the same was as natural phenomena
201
What is the "anthropological approach"?
You become a part of a culture, until this culture can be understood from the perspective of a culture itself, not from a POV of an outsider. If u go back to ur own culture, explain your own culture from the perspective of a culture u studied and vice versa -> then u have objectivity about a studied culture
202
List the 4 methodological principles of the Edinburgh Strong Programme:
1. causality --> Focus on why scientists believe what they believe
2. impartiality --> SSK researcher should set aside their own beliefs of what is true and false, and be a completely neutral observer.
3. symmetry --> The same type of sociological analysis must be applied to research programmes that are both true and false (this is what makes the strong programme strong).
4. reflexivity --> Apply SSK analysis to SSK research (why do SSK researchers believe the things they do?). This is what makes the strong programme vulnerable to attacks.
203
What are the two verions of Economic approach to understand practice of science? How do they differ?
ES and ESK. ES says that what scientists do (their incentives) do not change based on how science is organised. ESK says that they do change
204
From what perspective did the Strong Programme look at science?
They analysed and look at how social factors play a big role in how scientific ideas are formed
205
How does the Strong Programme challenge traditional views of science?
The Strong Programme challenges the idea that scientific beliefs are formed purely based on objective evidence, instead arguing that social factors such as training, goals, and societal influences also play a significant role.
206
What are the 4 norms in science according to ES? Explain them all
CUDOS:
1. Communalism - share discoveries as quickly as possible
2. Universalism - do science in a way that is applicable to large groups and universal situations
3. Disinterestness - you have no bias to any side
4. OS - organised scepticism - a good scientist should be ready to be critisized
207
Give an example of how the Strong Programme views scientific beliefs in a symmetrical way. How does this example illustrate the symmetrical analysis emphasized by the Strong Programme?
An example is the comparison between the acceptance of Lysenko's Lamarckian theory in the USSR due to Marxist-Leninist politics and the preference for Darwinism in Western societies, which can also be attributed to social and political factors. This example shows how social and political factors influenced scientific beliefs in both cases.
208
Can you explain the concept of "symmetry" in the context of scientific paradigms?
Symmetry in scientific paradigms refers to the idea that the same social factors can lead to the acceptance or rejection of different scientific beliefs, regardless of their validity. This means that successful and unsuccessful paradigms may share similar underlying causes, highlighting the complex interplay between societal influences and scientific progress.
209
Does ESK (new approach) believe in CUDOS assumptions? How are they met?
Yes it does. The system of "open science" where scientists are motivated by fame and recognision ensures they follow CUDOS anyway, even without financial gains like in ES
210
What model did David&Dasgupta create? To what approach does it belong?
David & Dasgupta created "open science" model that fits into ESK.
211
"Open science" causes science to be breakthrough oriented. What is the consequence of that?
That all scientists focus on anomalies -> they want to explain/solve them for fame and recognition
212
What is the "lock-in problem"?
whatever rules govern competition cause ppl to follow only these rules and not experiment outside of them, thus changing paradigms is difficuilt -> new crazy breakthroughs that require new way of looking at the world are not rewarded
213
What is Kitcher's Social epistemology?
It says science is organised socially so science stadards are the same as social ones. It's goal is to increase the ratio of reliable beliefs to total beliefs.
214
How does Kitcher's epistemology solve the "lock-in problem"?
U operationalise science like market for ideas: whatever idea that sells best is probably good. This means knowledge is promoted by cognitive diversity and competition
This Diversity is to solve the "lock-in problem"
215
What does McCloskey approach say about demarcation criteria?
There is no demarcation, as McCloskey want to throw out any restrictions. Any way to convince sb of your theory works.
216
According to McCloskey, economics operates like a ______
conversation
217
What is the danger in the fact, that economists are the story-tellers and these who are the most convincing rise to the top? (McCloskey)
whoever gets to the top, is not someone who iis actually right or has good intentions
218
219
What is Open science system?
Scientific results are quickly and readily available to all interested parties (who can check them and test them)
220
What is an open science system (ESK) ?
– where scientific results are quickly
and readily available to all
221
What are the four principles that must be satisfied for good science according to the Economics of Science (ES) (often referred to as CUDOS norms) ?
1. Communism (Communalism):
Common ownership of scientific discoveries - because it is the work of multiple scientists and
can lead to further research. Scientists give up intellectual property in exchange for recognition
and esteem.
2. Universalism:
The validity of a scientific claim should be evaluated with universal or impersonal criteria.
Shouldn’t depend on the scientist’s race, gender, class etc. and there should be equal opportunities
for all scientists.
3. Disinterestedness:
Scientists should work to advance science and not for personal or financial gain.
4. Organized Skepticism:
Scientific claims should be rigorously tested and scrutinized by the scientific community in an
organized way.
222
If the CUDOs principles are satisfied, basic research is a public good with positive externalities and
should therefore be __________
subsidized
223
What approach do sociologists from Laboratory Studies take?
They take a naïve perspective and simply observe
what scientists do in a laboratory – they take an anthropological approach. (What tech is used, how are results presented and discussed, organization of the workspace etc.)
224
ESK is inspired by ____
ES (Robert Merton)
225
ES is more ______ in nature while ESK is more ______ in nature
prescriptive; descriptive. This is because ES provides guidelines and recommendations while ESK takes on a more descriptive approach
226
How does an open science system incentivize scientists to produce more research? *ESK
This is because the promise of esteem, recognition and fame are more inclined to make discoveries
227
What are the key principles associated with open science, as outlined by Dasgupta and David?
Communalism, disinterestedness, and organized skepticism are key principles associated with open science, according to Dasgupta and David.
228
Explain exactly how lock-in effects hinder innovation and progress.
Lock-in effects when there are strong incentives to continue using a particular technology or methodology leading to path dependency. When this occurs, it becomes difficult and costly to switch to alternatives, even if they may be more effective and thereby societies or industries may become "locked-in" to suboptimal choices.
229
What are the effects of an optimal division of labour according to Kitcher?
An optimum division of labour is one that strikes a balance between specialization and coordination. This balance maximizes the ratio of "true justified beliefs" to the total number of beliefs generated by scientific inquiry. In other words, it aims to ensure that scientific research produces accurate and justified knowledge to the greatest extent possible.
230
What does David Collander of ESK criticise?
David Collander critiques the incentives within the field of economics, arguing that economists are pressured to adhere to mainstream methodologies, even if these methodologies lack solid methodological foundations or fail to address pressing societal needs.
231
What does disinterestedness refer to? (ESK)
It refers to the idea that scientific inquiry should be motivated by a desire for knowledge rather than personal gain or recognition.
232
What exactly is relativism?
It is the idea that scientific knowledge is not objective but is dependent on historical and social context. SSK definitely supports this view and ESK at times, as can be seen from lock-in effects.
233
What is the concern with relativism?
The concern with relativism is that it is self-defeating (like the reflexivity issue in the strong programme)
– even the research produced by SSK and ESK researchers is relative and may be based on their own beliefs so why should we believe them?
234
What is realism?
The view that the world exists independently of our theories, and the world is to be discovered or
understood by scientists.
235
What does immunization ex ante refer to?
Immunization ex ante: are things that make the theory immune before its even tested (eg: a general
ceteris paribus clause, or being extremely vague and imprecise).
236
What does immunization ex post refer to?
Immunization ex post: Ad hoc adjustments to the theory, its domain and definitions to rescue the theory if it isn’t corroborated by data. (eg: Marxism has been immunized ex post since it initially predicted capitalism would lead to conflict and would be replaced with communism, but when it wasn’t realized it was replaced with a number of reasons why it hasn’t happened yet).
237
What is Incommensurability?
two competing paradigms cannot be compared. The result is that members of each
paradigm cant understand each other:
238
What exactly are the conditions of sophisticated falsification?
Assumptions in the hard core should not (or cannot) be falsified. Since most theories require unverifiable background assumptions.
239
What was the measurment-without-theory about?
Vining vs Koopmans debate about relevance of factors and how we can tell if sth is relevant or not in the model
240
Explain Vining's view in Measuremnt-without-theory debate. When can you tell if sth is/isn't important?
If we do enough observations, we will see relevant factors arrive. You cannot say sth is relevant if it hasn't changed enough
241
Explain Koopman's view in Measurement-without-theory debate
Apart from observations, we can use our intuition/general knowledge to tell what will be relevant in the given model and we should use these things. Critisied Vining for being too emphirical to the point of being impractical
242
How did Musgrave defend Friendman? Why (according to him) did he think Friedman wasn't anti-realist
Friedman advocated simpler models, with factors tha are affected by less variables in a significant way and then ignoring everything else. This didn't make models "anti-realist" but more focused and simpler
243
What did Samuelson say about the work of Friedman?
Friendmans ideas give wrong ideas to policy makes due to their unrealistic assumptions. We need to ensure that correlations we observe are causal not jsut happen to be. He also proposed that correlatiomns should be obsserved both ways A->B and B->A to truly determine their causality (equivalence)
244
Piecemeal social engineering - what is it?
Idea in Open Society. Talks about how to implement changes: Advice goverment, they try, check outcomes, adjust, try...... Constant trial and error process in social sciences
245
What alteration did David and Dasgupta from ESK make to Merton's ideas (ES) regarding the motivation of scientists?
They suggested that scientists are primarily motivated by reputational rewards rather than financial gain.
246
How does David and Dasgupta's model ensure that scientisits maintain the 4 norms of good science?
So they believed that scientists are motivated by fame and recognition so if this is your aim you will aim to produce discoveries that are universal and are widely accepted (Universalism). On top of that you will strive to publish and release your discoveries ASAP to ensure that you are not second. Furthermore, scientists do not want to be accused of being self-motivated so disinterestedness is safeguarded. This model also encourages scientists to subject their work to rigorous scrutiny and critique from their peers before publication.
247
How do Nobel prizes fit into David and Dasgupta's model of rewarding scientific breakthroughs?
Nobel prizes fit into David and Dasgupta's model by providing scientists with recognition, fame, and funding for further research, thereby motivating them to produce high-quality discoveries.
248
Does David and Dasgupta discuss the lock-in problem?
No they didn't come up with it. However we can connect their work to it, namely, when there is a scientist with a different worldview, aiming for a paradigmatic change, he may not be rewarded by the Nobel Prize Committee.
249
According to Robert Merton (ES) a scientist will not get away with saying something that is partly untrue because _______
other scientists of the committee will find these faults. He refers to this as 'organized skepticism'
250
According to Merton (ES) a good scientist would never keep ____ to themselves
results; this is considerebed to be communalism
250
Why does Merton advocate for government subsidies to support basic scientific research?
He sees it as a public good benefiting everyone except the scientists themselves.
250
Despite the potential societal benefit from their work, what do scientists often not receive according to Merton (ES) ?
Financial rewards for their efforts
250
What is the role of patents in applied research according to Merton?
Once basic research is published, patents can protect applied research, allowing for cost recovery and reducing the need for ongoing subsidies.
251
What type of research does Merton believe should be subsidized to ensure its continuation?
Fundamental research with broad societal benefits.
252
How does ANT's concept of translation help explain the differences observed in the research priorities of economic methodologists at the University of Amsterdam and the Erasmus University of Rotterdam?
ANT's concept of translation refers to the process through which actors align their interests and goals to form alliances and networks. At the University of Amsterdam, economic methodologists may align their research with practical economic problems, influenced by interdisciplinary collaborations facilitated by the Amsterdam School of Economics. Conversely, at the Erasmus University of Rotterdam, economic methodologists may be more influenced by philosophical discourse due to the presence of the Erasmus Institute for the Philosophy of Economics. This difference in translation processes helps explain the divergent research priorities observed between the two universities.
253
Explain how Actor-Network Theory (ANT) considers both human and non-human actors in shaping scientific practices, using the example of economic methodologists at the University of Amsterdam and the Erasmus University of Rotterdam.
Actor-Network Theory (ANT) emphasizes the interconnectedness and agency of both human and non-human actors in shaping scientific practices. At the University of Amsterdam, economic methodologists interact with philosophers, faculty members, and institutional structures, while at the Erasmus University of Rotterdam, similar interactions occur within different organizational contexts. ANT highlights how non-human actors, such as institutional arrangements and funding mechanisms, also influence research priorities and methodologies alongside human actors.
254
Briefly dicuss what Kitcher's social epistemology is:
It revolves around the idea that sciences are organized socially,
255
Who decides the quality criteria for scientists to uphold according to Kitcher?
It is up to society to decide what criteria they consider important for knowledge, not individual scientists or philosophers.
256
How does Kitcher propose to increase the ratio of reliable beliefs in the population?
By ensuring an open market for knowledge where users can choose the information they find most useful, thereby increasing the availability of reliable beliefs.
257
What distinguishes Kitcher's approach from older methodologies?
Kitcher does not prescribe what it means to be scientific or reliable; instead, he emphasizes that society will determine these criteria.
258
What role do scientists play in Kitcher's model?
Scientists are tasked with producing high-quality research, while the users of that research determine its trustworthiness and applicability.
259
What are the 3 pillars of classical rhethoric?
Logos, pathos and ethos
260
Pathos is explaining/convincing concepts using
emotions
260
Ethos is convincing others using ________
credibility/trust,
261
McCloskey criticizes the theories that came before. She considers all of them as being _____
positivist
262
McCloskey thinks that the idea of the deductive nominological model is far too _______
restrictive. She believes that there can be many good theories that are not written in the form of covering laws of providing predictions
263
McCloskey believes that _____ is not the only code of science
predictions
264
According to McCloskey economists use mathematics, proofs, significance test as means of giving authority. Which pillar of classic rhethoric is this?
Ethos
265
Why does McCloskey ciriticise positivism?
She argues that in many cases economic theories are not convincing because of their predictions/observations but rather that they make intuive sense.
266
What example does McCloskey give for how economists use intuition to make a theory persuasive?
Interactive competition is shown as "game theory" and this makes intuitive sense because we have all played games prior. This helps us get into the grips of these more complex economic theories
267
What does McCloskey say about metaphors being used in economics?
She says that analogies are usually succesful because they use metaphors from non-economic concepts that resonate with people and are persuasive
268
McCloskey differentiates between big and small 'm' methodology. One type is more worthy of attention than the other, in her view. Explain which type she thinks is most worthy of attention while using these terms correctly. As she feels that scientists themselves...
...are best positioned to assess the quality of the work of their peers, methodologists should focus on describing their practices through small 'm' methodology and not pass judgement on them through big 'M' Methodology (aka high horse methodology)
269
POSITIVE NEGATIVE HEURISTICS
270
The Humean problem of induction revolves around the problem that experience is always ______ in space and time and therefore eternal truths cannot spring from ______
limited; experience
271
Currently there are 19 European countries in which the Euro is the official currency. What type of statement is this.
Synthetic a posteriori. It's not analytic because by defintion European countries are not ones that always adopt the euro.
272
What does Carnap’s confirmationism state?
This approach states that laws do not
express certain knowledge about the world, but express probabilistic knowledge. Probability concerns the likelihood of success of having logical statements.
273
What does Schlick's instrumentalism state?
Instrumentalism states
that useful instrument value is not measured by it being true or false but by how effectively can it explain and predict phenomena,
in other words its usefulness. He states the scientific laws are “usable guidelines” or “working hypothesis”. Thus, laws or universal statements are instrument guidelines but are not useful thus not scientific. Only meaningful statements can be categorized as certain statements can be considered scientific.
274
What is Koopman's view on the importance of theory in econometrics?
Koopman believes that theory is necessary to avoid simultaneous equation bias and to interpret empirical data.
275
According to Friedman, what is the comparative advantage of naïve models over macroeconometric models?
Friedman suggests that naïve models are better at predicting because there is too much trial and error in large econometric models.
276
What does Haavelmo advocate for in econometrics?
Haavelmo advocates for the use of probability and expressing economic models in terms of statistical relationships.
277
How does Friedman employ "as if" reasoning in his Methodology of Positivist Economics paper?
Friedman uses "as if" reasoning to explain the occurrence of a phenomenon by proposing an action that would result in that phenomenon occurring.
278
What reservations did John Maynard Keynes express about econometrics (Tinbergen)?
Keynes was very skeptical about econometrics, pointing out that estimates of causal factors are biased unless all causal factors are considered, but some cannot even be measured, leading to omitted variable bias. He also criticized the field for relying too much on trial and error rather than being informed by theory. Additionally, he raised concerns about the invariance problem, questioning whether estimated relations would hold in the future.
279
Which philosopher/economist came up with the blueprint for Modern Econometrics?
Haavelmo
280
Who worked out and came up with the LSE approach in econometrics?
Haavelmo
281
Who tried to discover business cycle regularities in a large number of time series?
NBER so Burns and Mitchell
282
For what did Koopmans criticise NBER?
He believed that theory is necessary to avoid simultaneous equations bias, and to interpret
empirical data and he also raised Invariance problem: will these regularities also hold in the future?
283
Milton Friedman was very critical of _______
large, econometric models
284
What were the three types of assumptions of Alan Musgrave?
1. Negligibility assumption which states that some factors do not have an important effect and can be neglected
2. Domain assumption: assumption that the theory is only applicable within a certain domain (for example theory is only applicable if inflation is not too high)
3. Heuristic assumption: Shortcute to simplify the theory such as by using an "as if " assumption
285
2. Friedman’s methodological aims are interpreted in various ways. They can be seen either
as a call for instrumentalism, or as a critique of too much realisticness. Give arguments for
each of these interpretations.
Friedman was 1. in favor of “economic instrumentalism” (whether assumptions are realistic or not does not matter, as long as the theory predicts well) 2. Or opposed to “realisticness” (assumptions should be descriptively correct in all
their details)
286
What reason does Merton give for why economic research should be subsidized (ES)?
A good scientist should aim to publish universally acceptable knowledge in which s/he has
no personal stakes as quickly as possible for scrutiny by a critical audience. Such basic
research fuels the development of commercial applications and innovations. Therefore,
basic research must be subsidized.
287
Value judgements enter economics in 4 ways. What are they?
1. Methodological value judgements
2. Value ladenness of concepts and explanations
3. Supporting particular ethical views
4. Representation of ethical values and norms
288
Methodological value judgements involve decisions about:
1. Choice of subject matter --> researchers must specify what questions they will be seeking to address; for example we should take a closer look at markets
2. Method of investigation --> Researchers must agree upon and teach relevant research techniques and skills within their discipline, how the investigation ought to be proceed, how to go about it
3. Standard of validity --> This may include statistical significance, model predictive power, or other measures of validity.
289
Stating that a tax will distort markets and lead to unemployment is seen as a _______ statement,
factual
290
Asserting that unemployment should be prevented is seen as a ________ statement.
normative
291
Why does Myrdal believe that economics is value-laden?
This is because even without purposeful intention, economists convey their values in the technical langauge they use, so for example in their usage of words like rationality and equilibriu
292
What is ordinal utility?
The notion that in ordinal utility, the consumer only ranks choices in terms of preference but we do not give exact numerical figures for utility, moreover, we cannot compare peoples' utilities because this is very subjective
293
What is cardinal utility?
The idea that economic welfare can be directly observable and be given a value.
294
What are the two ways in which rational choice explanations can be said to become strongly value laden according to Myrdal ?
1. How the concept of rationality is defined --> Rationality is often defined narrowly as maximizing preference satisfaction, thereby ignoring broader ethical principles such as justice or fairness
2. Rejection of cardinal utility --> Rational choice expectation often reject the idea of cardinal utilitty which is the idea that utility can be quantitatively compared between individuals, thereby ignoring things like equality and social welfare
295
Samuelson’s descriptivism requires that…
models contain only verified assumptions and have only verified implications. This means that the model is only a valid description of observations so far, but cannot be used to explain or predict things that we have not yet observed as fitting the model.
296
According to logical positivists science grows by building upon ....
certain knowledge and by conducting new observations
297
Paradigms are ...
templates for problem solving that inform how research in a specific community is to be conducted.
298
For Friedman a law is scientific if it ....
When the model's predictions align with real-world outcomes, it is deemed scientific.
So when a model generates accurate predictions it is scietnific. For Friedman, a theory is scientific if it predicts well within a specified domain, even if its underlying assumptions may not reflect reality accurately
299
How does Friedman's approach align with positivism?
Friedman's approach aligns with positivism in its acceptance of the deductive-nomological model but diverges from traditional positivism in its emphasis on predictive success rather than testing assumptions and premises.
300
According to Samuelson's descriptivism models contain only verified assumptions of the _____
past , what has occurred so far and therefore cannot be deemed a scientific law that holds in the future as well
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