topic 3 eco issues Flashcards

(269 cards)

1
Q

eco growth

A

^ in volume of g&s eco produces/real GDP over PIT

  • measured by annual rate of change in real GDP (%^ in value of g&s produced in an eco over PIT usually 1 yr adjusted for inflation rate aka GDP at constant prices)
  • real GDP: nominal GDP x (previous CPI/CPI)
  • EG/rate ^ real GDP: (current GDP-previous GDP)/previous GDP x100
  • (aso in ch3) quantitative –> measure ^GDP, income, emp, LS
  • by ^AD/AS (usually both)
  • ^AS expands eco’s productive capacity by 1. ^use resources (quantity) eg. unutilised land, LF^, adopt new tech & 2. ^productive use existing resources (quality) eg. capital ^productivity land & labour, edu & training programs ^ labour, capital productivity
  • ^AS –> outward shift eco’s PPF (when producting at capacity, EG only if mroe resources available/tech adv/efficient use existing resources) –> current & future LS ^
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2
Q

limitation of using EG/output to measure LS

A

GDP is gross measure & doesnt account what’s being produced/depreciation of c’s existing capital stock & consumer goods

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3
Q

3 diff time periods used to measure AUS’ rate eco growth

A
  1. quarterly eco growth
    * every 3 months by ABS
    * eg. March quarter is % increase in GDP since previous December quarter (final 3 months of 2021)
  2. year-on-year growth
    * less volatile measure
    * measure % change in GDP between 1 quarter & corresponding quarter of previous year
  3. annual eco grwoth
    * calculated using GDP statistics for whole financial year 1 July - 30 June
    * when June quarter national accs released (usualyl early Sep), annual growth calcualated s % increase in GDP since last financial year
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4
Q

why are there a variety of measures of eco grwoth

A

eco policymakers use growth statistics, each measure useful for diff ones purposes

  • RBA needs to know what lvl eco activity in coming 12-18 months to forecast inflation trends & determine appropriate changes in the cash rate, look at most up to date indicators of EG
  • Productivity Commission interested in hwo structural policies affect eco growth in LT even over decades (LT growth trends, not volatile quarterly growth stats heavily influenced by ST factors)
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5
Q

aggregate demand

A

total lvl expenditure in an eco over given PIT

  • consumption,+ investment, +gvt spending,+ net export spending (export spending - import spending)
  • total demand for g&S within eco
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6
Q

aggregate supply (Y)

A

total lvl income in eco over given PIT (period) (national income since all production generates income for owners of FOP)

  • part of national income collected by gvt through taxation, rest consumption/saved
  • consumer spending by HHs + saving by HHs + taxation by gvt
  • total productive capacity of an eco, potentia output when all FOP fully utilised
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7
Q

when the economy is in equilibrium/equilibrium income

A
  • will tend to be stable hwen lvl output AD & AS (national income) equal (lvl income in eco with no tendency to change bc eco operates below productive capacity if low demand for output, total expenditure)
  • S + T + M = I + G + X (leakages = injections)
  • changes in leakages & injections influence lvl eco activity
  • injections > leakages eco will grow
  • leakages > injections (eco growth decrease, may contract)
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8
Q

how to achieve EG with diff AS & AD lvls

A
  • if eco operating below productive capacity, ^ AD promote EG by encouraging firms to ^output
  • if operating close to productive capcity, EG only by ^ AS, needs ^ quantity &/quality of productive resources
  • when AD insufficient to generate full employment of productive resources, macroeco policies to stimulate growth S-MT by boosting demand
  • eco approaching full emp (most FOP utilised & producing lvl close to full potential), sustain growth LT need microeco policies (^ efficiency of resource use) to address structural issues on supply side that may limit future growth
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9
Q

influences on consumption (influences consumption & saving)

A

consumption by HHs ~55-60% expenditure/AD in eco

  • anything boosts consumption –> boost expenditure (demand) –>** eco activity (income/output/AS**)
  • most important factor influencing consumption is income (market eco)
  • higher incomes consumer more, consumer more as income rises (but consumption drives output)
  • how consumption influence eco activity (& income), look what influences consumption for a given lvl of income (all factors other than income)
  • prop total income spent on consimption APC AND PROP TOTAL INCOME SAVED APS
    ( most HH consumption, gvt spending, bus investment in order)
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10
Q

3 greatest influences on APC (thus lvl consumption at given lvl income)

A
  1. consumer expectations (confidence)
  • expectations abt eco prospects (ind & general), future price ^ & availability goods influence decisions to spend/save income
  • expect rise incomes/inflation/anticipate future shortage goods –> ^ spend & save less ST
  1. lvl IRs
  • discourage inds from spending money (cost borrowing money higher) & encouraged save (return on savings deposited higher)
  • but high lvls HH debt can reduce effectiveness of IR cuts in promoting consumption over time (AUS)
  • rising property prices ^ consumption of existing property owners bc more confident own financial situations since major asset appreciated value)
  1. distribution of income
  • more equitable (even), higher overall consumer spending
  • low incomes spend prop more income than higher (low incoem HH higgher APC)
  • policies that ^ disposable income of lower & mid income earners (^ rate social welfare payments eg. base rate JobSeeker payments) likely boost consumption & ^EG > policies ^disposable income HI earners eg. reducing top marginal income tax rate
  • redistributing income from higher to lower income earners –> ^EG since lower income earners higher MPC
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11
Q

APC & APS

A

APC prop total income spent on consumption

  • higher APC (hence lower APS) promote ^EG by ^ consumer spending

APS prop of total income not spent bus saved for future consumption

  • ^ APS –> lower output & growth due to weaker demand
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12
Q

what is one of most volatile componenets of demand/aggregate exoenditure

A

business investment 10-15%

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13
Q

cost/relative cost of capital equiment influences by 3 factors (which influences invesment)

A
  1. changes in IRs
  • fall, cheaper to borrow funds & purchase capital equip
  • IRs opp cost for firms who own capital
  • firms w cash reserves compare returns for saving money (lending to others eg. buying bonds) / funding to acquire capital/ shares to investors through ^ dividends
  • if higher IRs make * returns from saving > returns from investing capital –> save>invest (& less attractive for firms borrow funds for capital investment)
  • however firms unlikely invest capital if dont forecast strong demand for output
  1. change in price/productivity of labour/tech innovation
  • labour subsitute for capital in PP / tech innovations affect relative cost of capital compared w/ labour
  • if cost of labour increased/more adv labour-saving tech avialable at same cost –> relative cost of cpaital compared w/ labour decrease –> more attractive

ALSO: bus expectations abt future prospects influence investment lvl, confidence affected by

  • change in expected demand for their products (if entrepreneurs expect future ^ demand, inclined purchase new capital equip to boost production & satisfy demand)
  • change general eco outlook (if EG expect ^, entrepreneurs inclined invest capital equip bc ^lvl eco activity ^ ROI)
  • inflation (volatile prices ^ uncertainty abt future $ & future prod costs, –> reduce investment in capital equip, investment higher when inflation low, positive, stable)
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14
Q

3 factors affect bus expectations/confidence (influencing investment)

A

bus expectaitons abt future prospects aka entrepreneurial influence lvl investment
1. change in expected DEMAND for THEIR PRODUCTS

  • if entrepreneurs expected future ^ demand, more inclined to purchase new capital equip to boost production & satisfy the demand
  1. change in general ECO OUTLOOK
  • expect ^EG, entrepreneurs mroe inclined to invest in capital equip bc higher lvl eco activity should improve ROI
  1. INFLATION leads to uncertainty abt future prices & production costs –> reduced investment in capital equip
  2. changes in IRs
  • fall, cheaper to borrow funds & purchase capital equip
  • IRs opp cost for firms who own capital
  • firms w cash reserves compare returns for saving money (lending to others eg. buying bonds) / funding to acquire capital/ shares to investors through ^ dividends
  • if higher IRs make * returns from saving > returns from investing capital –> save>invest (& less attractive for firms borrow funds for capital investment)
  • however firms unlikely invest capital if dont forecast strong demand for output
  1. change in gvt policies relating to investment allowances & tax concessions on capital goods
  • investment allowances, tax concessions on capital goods
  • if allowed bus to claim full cost of cpaital equip immediatly > claiming depreciation over many yrs –> reduce tax liability & make cpaital cheaper than wouldve
  1. change in price/productivity of labour/tech innovation
  • labour subsitute for capital in PP / tech innovations affect relative cost of capital compared w/ labour
  • if cost of labour increased/more adv labour-saving tech avialable at same cost –> relative cost of cpaital compared w/ labour decrease –> more attractive

ALSO: bus expectations abt future prospects influence investment lvl, confidence affected by

  • change in expected demand for their products (if entrepreneurs expect future ^ demand, inclined purchase new capital equip to boost production & satisfy demand)
  • change general eco outlook (if EG expect ^, entrepreneurs inclined invest capital equip bc ^lvl eco activity ^ ROI)
  • inflation (volatile prices ^ uncertainty abt future $ & future prod costs, –> reduce investment in capital equip, investment higher when inflation low, positive, stable)
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15
Q

influences on gvt spending & taxation & what it’s used for

A

total gvt spending (ocal, state, fed) ~20-25% AD/expenditure while taxation ~20-25% of AS/income

  • fiscal policy one of main goals of gvt spending & taxation policies to maintain sustainable rate of eco grwoth & help achieve goals of low u/e & inflation
  • gvts may ^ lvl spending and/or reduce lvl taxation to ^ ^ lvl spending and/or reduce lvl taxation to ^AD & boost growth during downturns (^ spending more effective bc only hope lower taxes boost HH &bus spending)
  • also can reduce lvl spending and/or ^ lvl taxation to reduce AD & growth (boom)
  • decisions influenced by policy objectives for external stability & sustainability of gvt debt
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16
Q

influences on exports & imports

A
  • X & I 1/2 & 1/4 of AD
  • if X rev = M spending, trade balance doesnt add/subtract from AD
  • volume of X&I influenced by lvl of overseas & domestic growth/income
  • when overseas income & growth lvls rise, AUS exports also rise, AUS incoem lvls rise, AUS’ imports also rise
  • RELATIVE rates of overseas & dom growth determinesnet X (higher overseas growth improve BOGS, higher dom growth deteriorates)
  • net exports also infleucned by ER, inflation, lvls int competitiveness (itself influenced by ER, relative inflation, labour productivity, wage lvls, gvt policies affect bus costs), protectionsit policieso f other ocuntries, consumer tastes & preferences

EXCHANGE RATE:

  • when AUS weaker ER, domestic industries more competitive as relative cost to foreign consumers decreases –> ^ sales (net exports higher, add to AD &boost eco activity)
  • AUS stronger ER, domestic industries less competitive & products more expnesive for foreign consumers (net exports lower, detract from AD, reduce eco grwoth)
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17
Q

how changes in lvl AD influence lvl eco activity

A

simplify eco to individuals, firms, FIs (exclude gvt/international sectors)

  • income not spent on Consumption must be Saved
  • AD (expenditure) made up of C&I
  • S & I donest have to be equal all time even if Consumption from income = Consumption from AD
  • when S not equal to I, eco disrupted from state of equilibrium –> CFOI says eco mvoe towards state of equilibrium at higher lvl eco activity when Injection of I > leakage of S, lower lvl eco activity when injection of I < leakage of S
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18
Q

the multiplier process

A
  • any ^ C, I, G, NC generate larger ^ eco activity > new injection of spending into eco
  • MULTIPLIER EFFECT: greater than prop ^ national income(GDP) from ^ AD,
  • during eco shock eg. change in consumer/bus expectations, IRs, gvt policies –> change injections/leakages
  • eg. improved bus expectations for eco recovery –> ^ bus investment & expenditure (Demand) –> ^ income for inds –> consumer more –> further ^ expenditure & income
  • inital ^ investment has multiplied impacto n national income
  • BUT ^ investment doesnt continue ^ incoem foreover. each time injection moves, its impact on expenditure smaller bc some incoem not consumed but saved!!
  • savings is leakage reducing effect of higher investment on national income
  • no. times final increase in national income > initial ^ expenditure that caused it is multiplier
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19
Q

to caclulate how a changei n injections / leakages has a multiplied impact on income, consider 2 more conectps

A
  1. MPC prop of each extra dollar income spent on consumer products (change consumption/change income)
  2. MPS prop of each extra dollar income saved (change savings/change income)

MPC + MPS = 1 since each extra dollar income must be spent/saved

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20
Q

what 3 points should be considered before the total increase in incoem generated by mutipler process is calculated?

A
  1. MPS causes amt incoem generated by each successive wave of spending to decrease
  2. sum of each successive wave of income generated adds up to total amt which national income increases.
  3. the final increase in national income = initial increase AD multiplied by ‘the multiplier
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21
Q

the simple multiplier formula (k)

A

k = 1/MPS or k = 1/1-MPC

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22
Q

the larger the MPs & the smaller the MPS effect on value of the multiplier

A

larger MPS = smaller value of multipler

  • if inds save prop more of extra income, spend less –> generate less additional income
  • factor which multiply initial increase in AD must also be less

smaller MPS = larger value of multiplier

  • multiplier prcess occurs bc initial injections causes new waves of spending as all sectors of the eco interconnected
  • if gvt ^ spending (build new roads,) firms receive payments to purchase FOP & workers recieve wages they can consume/save
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23
Q

any change in lvl of __ __ (from changes in investment, gvt, consumer, net export spending) will have multiplied effect on lvl of __ __. gvts use the multiplier process bc

A

planned expenditure, national income

bc an initial ^ in gvt spending can result in a much larger ^ in eco activity as all sectors eco interconnected (gvt must estimate size of k (hence MPC & MPS) to determine amt gvt spending to coutneract anticipated downturn

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24
Q

while shiftsi n AD play main role determining lvl eco growth in long/short term, AS plays an important short/long term role in influencing lvls eco grwoth

A

AD shoerter term, AS long term

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25
an eco's AS is determined by
THE **quantity & quality of FOP** (natural resources ,labour, capita, ability **entrepreneurs to combine** them **efficiently** to **produce** g&s * ecos w/ **more/higher** quality FOPs **able produce more** g&s * is **eco's potential:** when **AS ^, eco can grow faster, ^ total output (EG) & reduce in general price lvl (inflation)** * ^ AS --> ^ total output (EG) & reduce general $ (inflation) --> ^GDP & price stability (reduce upward pressureprices created by ^AD), make faster rates EG more sustainable * ST, ^AS = ^ output produced same cost * Short Run AS curves = total output in eco over various price lvls, firms ^ quantity output supplied as price lvl rises (move along AS curve/extension in supply) * AS ^ (rightward shift) when ^ qnatity and/quality eco's FOP
26
AS can be increased when..which can be achieved through 7 changes:
a **higher lvl of output** can be **produced** for **same cost** (when there's **^ quantity/improve quality of FOP**) 1. **population grwoth** * esp population in prime working ages * **labour** is main input into PP so if ^ through **immigration/birth rates, mroe workers available,** eco **able produce mroe** g&s * for several decades, **AUS**' **relatively high** pop growth (**immigration**) major contributor to growth rates **ahaead msot adv ecos** * also higher AD bc more consumers 2. **discover new resources** * eg. new mineral & metal deposits can be exploited to **^ exports & ^ EG** 3. **^ skill lvl of workforce** * improve edu & training for school students & existing workforce boost productive capacity by ^ efficiency of labour resources 4. **increased capital** * **investment** in capital equip ^ productive capacity (of ind firms & eco) by boosting productivity of labour (ind workers produce more using new tech) & often **replaced labour** (capital-labour substitution frees up labour resources to work elsewhere in eco) 5. **adoption of new tech** (??) * bus providing customers w/ **mobile app to place orders & receive online custoemr service saves cost** of **sales agents** visiting customers/speaking on phone --> **reduce labour costs** 6. **measures to improve efficiency** * ind firms adopt management & work practices of leading int bus' to use existing resources more efficiently --> boost productive capacity of eco 7. **gvt policies** * ^ competitive pressures within industries (manuf firms reduced protection trade, telecomms via privatisation & comp policy) boost efficiency of resources use --> productive capacity * **cheaper & easier** for **bus** operating in **highly regulated sectors**
27
if AD ^ over time w/o corresponding ^ AS, eco will eventually
* **run out** of **spare capacity** (**unutilised productive resources**) & reach **capacity** **cnstraints** * CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS: **limit**ations on eco's **ability** achieve **furtherEG bc productive resources fully utilised** (when eco approach **full employment)** * whne eco close full emp/oprating new productive capacity, **^ AD cant continue drive EG --> ^ inflation, firms outbid each otehr for ^ scarce productive resources, pass** **higher prod costs** to consumers as higher prices * (why **microeco policy** important bc focuses on **supply** side of eco for **LT growth)**
28
# 2 things microeco policy/reforms
* **structural change** in eco --> productive, efficient, competitive * **longer transmission lag than macroeco policies** (many **yrs** to see impacts) * macroeco management successful if manage AD in way that encourages EG S-MT while giving micropolicies sufficient time to achieve **^ AS** needed to **avoid capacity constraints** * by **improving human capital** since more **skilled WF** has greater **labour productivity** & higher lvls **owrkforce participation** * **infrastructure** can ^ AS eg. **faster broadband networks** & **^ investment** in road, **rail infrastructure** * ^ AS **shifts** eco's **PPF curve right** * eg. **reduce protective trade** barriers, change structure &** rates of tax** (influence** resource allocation through dis/incentives**), change income taxes (influence AD, macro policy), comp policy reforms, reforms certain markets (financial, labour, product), * changes tech & markets unrelated to gvt reforms
29
recession
eco contracts 2 consecutive quarters neg EG/falling real GDP
30
how (real) GDP pc indicates EG
* changes in LS > change real GDP * EG ^ LS but if rate of pop growth > rate EG, GDP pc & LS fall even if ^EG * **real wages** can **rise, HHs** can enjoy **higher disposable income** **--> higher material LS** * key factor in **slower growth in AUS LS rcent yrs w/ real disposable income falling** some yrs is **long period of below-avg wages growth** * labour productivity impo influence on both AS & changes in GDPpc, influenced by tech adv, improved labour skills, quality of management & work arrangements (R&D for innovation, internet, edu & training)
31
how EG affects LS
faster EG --> ^ real GDPpc * real wages ^, HH ^ disposable incomes --> ^ material LS * EG and LS link weakenged bc wage growth slow
32
eco growth effects on employment
eco growth **creates jobs** * an eco that **sustains strong EG** --> everyone **willing & able to work able to find employment** * **LT, higher rates EG** associated w/ **develop**ment of **new, more adv industries** * c's w/ higher lvls eco growth --> **create more highly paid & highly skilled jobs**
33
eco growths effect on inflation
higher lvls eco growth --> **price increases & larger wage claims** --> **inflation rises** (esp if **spending is growing **when eco **close to full capacity** & **growth in AS cant keep pace w/ growth in AD** * inflation side effect of eco growth * major aim of **macroeco policy** is **keep growth** at lvl **not so high** that prompts **surge inflation** (**sustainable rate of eco grwoth**)\ * macropolicy obj as 'sustainable rate of EG' * high inflation early 22 to mid 2024 partially due to surge AD (build up HH savings during pandemic & massive fiscal & monetary stimuls gvts provided) when supply side contraints (labour shortages, disrupted GSCs, soaring energy prices) limited AUS growth
34
eco growth effects on external stability
EG often accompanied by **higher disposable incomes --> ^ consumer & bus spending --> higher lvl imports** * when eco **growing faster than** **trading partners (unless exports keep pace w/ growht in imports)**, can make **BOGS** **worsen**& **^ CAD** * excessive **CAD** can **undermine confidence** in eco so **BOP constraint** limit growth * when country faces BOP constraint, **policymakers** can deliberately **reduce** lvl **EG to improve external stability** (ensure ext imbalances eg. high CAD don't result in loss investor confidence harming dom eco) * achieving sustained EG crucial to maintain ext stability * keep foreign liabilities at sustainable lvl (% of GDP) eco must generate enough output growth & income to meet servicing costs of liabilities --> maintain rate EG matches/exceeds ^ foreign liaibilities (also maintain confidence of int investors, ensure ongoing availability of foreign capital --> sustain strong EG)
35
how eco grwoth affects income distribution
sometimes **benefits flow disproportionately to higher income earners/owners of capital** **than** flowing broadly **throughout** eco through **wage increases/lower prices** * increasingly benefits EG disprop flow to HI earners & wealther LCE owners than braod via general wage ^/lower prices * should reduce inequal income distribution by reducing u/e, with inequality ^ during weak growth due to ^ u/e but can ^ if benefits not widely shared * **absolute poverty should fall** as eco grows but **relative poverty likely rise** as income distributions more unequal during periods strong growth * **beenfits** of strong growth often skewed towards **skilled workers > unskilled so gap betw rich & poor widens**
36
eco growth environmetnal impacts
if growth pursued w/ little regard to enviro --> **pollution, depletion non renewable energy sources**, dmage local enviro 9Higher demand & output --> ^ resource use --> pollution, depletenatural resources, enviro degradation) * **ecologically sustainable development accounts impact of EG on enviro** :gvts pursue growth strats avoid irreparable enviro damage * avoid catastrophic social, enviro, eco consequences --> break link betw ^ EG & ^GH gas emissions * in **LT, EG must be ecologically sustainable, avoid neg outcomes of resource depletion & climate change, ^ financial resources & ^ capacity to invest enviro freindly techs & stronger enviro protection --> less dependent on job creation & X income from epxloiting natural resources** * shift to **environmentally sustianable EG strats** can also **create new industries & jobs** eg. via **renewable energies(more labour intensive than fossil fuels) & low-carbon techs**
37
(check textbook) 8 factors that influenced **AUS' growth cycle recent years (recent trends in EG)** including global & domestic influences & policy decisions. AUS **msotly** benefited from **global eco trends** but also from successful **policy management:**
1. **global eco conditions mostly favourable** 2. **TOT boom 2005-11, 2017-22** 3. **pre-emptive MP: macroeco management (quickly reduce IR to support AD) to maintain sustainable rate EG** 4. **RBA's monetary policy on maintaining low inflation & sustainable growth rate** 5. **gvt used fiscal policy during eco downturns to stabilise EG** 6. **higher lvl sustained population growth than most adv ecos** 7. **large increases in asset prices** 8. **slowdown in productivity growth**
38
**global eco conditions** influencing AUS' growth cycle recent years (recent trends EG)
**mostly favourable** for AUS recent decades * **strong demand** for AUS' **resource exports** underpinned boom in **mining & construction investment** & surge in **export revenues** **--> ^national income** and **rebound quickly from ext shocks** (covid, gfc) * **rising inflation** due to **supply chain disruptions** & **global** surge inflation impacted growth **since** recovering **covid** and **russia** invasion 2022
39
AUS terms of trade boom influencing AUS' growth cycle recent years
* 2005- 2011, 2017-22 * driven by **very large increases in prices of AUS' commodity exports (iron ore, coal, natural gas) --> export revenues** ^substantially, **improve BOGS --> consecutive CAS -->** concerns **BOP constraint** * 2024 Budget forecast 15% decline TOT 2025-26, expect stabilise to avg
40
AUS macroeco management reasonably successful maintaining **Sustainable rate of eco grwoth** prior to COVID recession influencing AUS' growth cycle recent years
* lvl generates **employment growth & maintains external balance w/o pushing inflation above target range 2-3%** * AUS Treasury estimates AUS' **LT sustainable rate EG ~2.5% of GDP**
41
RBAS pre-emptive use of monetary policy & focus on maintaining low inflation influencing AUS' growth cycle recent years
* PRE-EMPTIVE: IRs adjusted ANTICIPATING change **growth & inflation**' * during eco downturns, RBA quickly reduce IRs to support AD * also maintain low inflation & sustainable growth rate
42
AUS higher lvl population growth than most adv ecos influencing AUS' growth cycle recent years (check textbook)
mainly due to its **immigration** intake * **net overseas migration negative** 1st time since ww2 in 2020-21 --> **labour shortages constrain growth** in 2022-23
43
large increases in asset prices influencing AUS' growth cycle recent years (honestly not that important)
eg. **real estate & shares** since early 2000s **^ wealth of HHs -->** encourage greater **borrowing & consumption** aka **'wealth effect'** * higher housing prices **constrain spending power** of homebuyers but **overall wealth effect** of higher asset prices **^EG**
44
AUS' LT eco challenges are described by AUS Treasury as 'the 3 Ps'
1. productivity * sustaining LT productivity growth 2. participation * high lvls workforce participation 3. population * continued population growth from natural growth & immigration to help AUS achieve highest possible rate eco grwoth * significance of policy measures to lift productivity growth & participation in LT
45
macroeco policy
used by **gvt** to **influence rate EG** * main role influenc eco grwoth ST w/ aim to **smooth volatile fluctuations in BC** * only **limited impact** on lvl of **long-run** growth rate bc only limited influence on AS * affect growth rate in **ST by influencign AD** & achieve **highest lvl growth eco can sustain in S-MT**\ * can help ^ AS some ways (gvt spend edu, low IRs encourage investment in cpaital equip), main role influence EG ST by influencing AD * manage demand to smooth fluctuations in BC & achieve highest lvl growth eco can sustian S-MT (improving perf for full emp & price stability)
46
fiscal policy
use federal Budget to achieve eco objs (esp **stabilise** eco activity, optimise **resource allocation, redistribute income)** * **gvt expeniture** in Budget **injection** into eco, gvt revenue **(taxation) leakage** * by adjusting **expenditure & rev**, gvt **influence** lvl **AD** --> lvl **EG** * if gvt wants ^ EG: **reduce taxation, ^ expenditure, both** via **discretionary**/explicit changes to **FP (stimulus package**/reduce tax rates)/**automatic stabilisers --> ^** lvl **injections relative to leakages --> ^ EG** than w/o expansionary policy * alt,EG constrained if taxation rev ^ ^/gvt expenditure reduced (via discretionary change eg. ^ tax rates or cut expenditure)/automatic stabilisers * **more eff stimulating growth during downturn** than slowing down eco growing too fast (bc **discretionary changes to FP** would have **contractionary effet** (^ tax rates, cut spending) **politically unpopular** * eg. **limitations** of FP (**S<)** FY06-08 federal budget surplus ^ but cut income tax rates & super meant while fiscal contractionary stance, surpluses significantly smaller than would've been --> criticised bc added i**nflationary pressure**s when EG strong (promted **tighter MP**) & created structural problem in budget (from revenue) --> structural problems (**unable return to budget surplus, larger deficits, accumulate gvt debt**...georgeious0
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monetary policy
gvt use to influence eco grwoth * RBA changes official **CR to achieve gvt eco objs** (price stability, full emp, **sustianable EG**) --> influece **lvl IRs** in eco --> influneces lvl **AD** & rate **eco grwoth** * if gvt & RBA stimulate growth, reduce IRs --> encourage **consumer & bus spending (downward pressure ER, boost int competitiveness of X & M-competing firms)** * effective **inflation targeting** --> MP can contribute **LT growth** **(low, stable inflation --> conditions conducive to high consuemr & bus confidence** & support **int competitiveness**)
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super low CR 2013 to 2019 but EG stil lbelow LT trend bc
* macropolicies msot effective when used in coordinated, complementary way (contractionary FP reduced effectiveness of expansionary MP) * low IRs inflated asset prices (property) by ^ demand * MP more effective as contractionary > expansionary (^ IRs ties ^% income in loan repayments --> force lower HH consumption bc ppl cant spend moeny they no longer have) while IR cuts only ENCOURAGE ^ consumption (reducing repayments doesnt force ppl to spend)
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microeco policies
to **^** eco's **sustainable grwoth rate** by **^ AS** & **reducing extent** higher **growth causes inflationary & CA problems** (by boosting int competitiveness --> trade balance) factors not capacity constraints that can constrain higher growth * ^ AS to **keep pace w/ rising AD** * Productivity Commission argues AUS strong growth rates 1990s from far-reaching microeco policies * increased **incestment in workforce skills** & physical **infrastructure** in recent **budgets** aimed **^ eco's AS** w/ **reforms to ^ competitive pressure**d & **Reduce unnecessary regulation** * effectiveness/lack of AUS microeco reform deteriorated recent decades, most sig contribution recent yrs from state gvts substantial investments in infrastructure (roads, ports) to relieve transport & SC bottlenecks
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COVID 19 impactso n AUS eco
one of most powerful **ext shocks** in AUS eco history * ended AUS' record breaking 28 yr eco growth cycle * shut down state & national borders, enforced lockdowns across AUS,** temporary prohibition on entire sectors** of eco activity * **consumer spending** shifted dramatically * travel, leisure, entertainment spending curtailed * **spending increase**d as HHs stockpiled emergency supplies from supermakrets & spent more on home entertainment * **share market fell** 37% in a month ( paragraph for essays here) * gvt's FP measures complemented by immediate MP action from RBA cut cash rate down to 0.1 Nov 2020 also supported supply of credit to keep eco afloat & undertook asset purchases (outright purchase of assets by RBA from private secotr)
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effects of COVID 19 recession that were far-reaching:
1. **eco grwoth** * GDP fell 2 successive quarters of 2020 (essay stats) 2. **labour market** * u/e peaked 7.5% july 2020, highest rate over 20 yrs * 2020 retail & hospitality managers, hospitality workers, sports & personal services workers 3 occupations most job losses * Participation rate hsitoric high April 2021 3. **businesses** * diff impacts across industries * rely on international tourism suffered severe * bus in accommodation & food services, tranpsrt, postal & warehousing, arts & recreation services hit hard by lockdowns & most likely report diff meeting financial commitments * others (delivery, onlnie retail) benefited from expanded opps 4. **inflation** * unusually large but temporary price movements (most bc gvt decision to make child care free for several months) ersulted in 1st decline in year-ended CPI inflation since early 1960s & largest quarterly decline since 1931 * underlying inflation expected remain below inflation target range (?0 5. **distribution of income & wealth** * lasting effects on distribution of welath takes many yrs to emerge * income ineq worsened steadily w/ disproportionate effects on lower skilled workers
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measuring economy's health through the state of the labour market
**proportion of ppl** engaged in **productive** work * high lvls u/e major problem bc **opp cost of ^u/e is less production, slower EG, lower taxation revenue, higher SWP** * **LT social costs** including **^ inequality, poverty**, family problems, **crime, social division** * **underemployment & underutilisation of labour**
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recent decades labour market changes
* **age & gender** profile of workforce * expansion of **highly skilled** * **decline of unskilled jobs** * move **away from secure full time employment**
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measuring unemployment lvl using the labour force
section of population **15/+ yo working/actively seeking work** * all employed & u/e persons in country at **PIT** consists of: * ppl aged 15/+ currently employed for at least **1 hr per week of paid work**, includes those on paid **leave**, on leave, stood down **w/o pay for < 4 weeks,** on **strike**, on **workers' compensation,** receiving payments whilst undertaking full time study * **self employed** ppl workers at least 1hr per week
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ppl who arent included in the labour force
* children under 15 yo * **full time, non working students** 15/+ yo * ppl who perform **full time domestic duties** * u/e ppl who **arent willing to actively apply for jobs & attend job interviews/not available** to start work * ppl **retired** from labour force
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labour force participation rate to measure u/e
**% of pop aged 15/+** (working age pop) in labour force employed or unemployed (either working/actively seeking work) * **working age population** if 15/+ (**can participate in LF**) * size of LF account ppl's willingness & ability participate by working or , looking for work * choose not to participate in LF (studying, carer's responsibilities, volunteering FT, other income sources, feel unlikely find work) * **labour force/working age pop**
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using unemployment to measure unemployment
situation where individuals want to work but unable to find job, as result **labour resources in eco not utilised** * reflect no. ppl out of work but **actively seeking** * to determine rate of u/e, ABS conducts monthly survey of labour force (~50 000 ppls), calculating total no. u/e & rate of u/e
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to be classified as actively seeking work, must satisfy any one of criteria eg...
* **regularly checking ads** from **diff sources** for **available jobs** * willign to **respond** to** job ad**vertisements, **apply** for jobs w/ employer & **attend interviews** * **registering** with an **employment agency** linked to **Job Services AUS**
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problems with the method used to measure u/e
from **structural changes** occurred in **AUS LM recent years,** classifying ppl into **3 categories (employed, u/e, not in LF)** **doesnt provide** **compelte** pic of actual **utilisation of labour/spare capacity** * **disguise exten**t AUS' **LM problems**
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2 main problems associated with current LF statistics
1. by **classifying** ppl **un/employed**, official stats dont account **NO. HRS PPL WORK** * some **emplyoed wanna work more hrs** (**UNDEREMPLOYED**) * 40 hr week job --> 4 diff 10 hrs per week jobs, reduce official u/e rate **w/ increasing real eco activity/demand for labour** 2. **classifying** ppl in **not/in LF**, official u/e stats **DONT include ppl who UNABLE FIND work & LEFT LF** (**HIDDEN U/E**) * **discouraged jobseekers** eg, students would rather work, disabled who wouldve taken if available
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taking into account the combo of u/e & underemployment, ABS publishes additional measures of underutilisation of labour. the first of these is...also publishes an...
**labour force underutilisation rate** measuring no. ppl u/e + no. who wanna work more hrs * also publishes an extended LF underutilisation rate, adds to underutilisation rate 2 groups who are marginally attached to the LM (ppl actively looking for work & able to start within 4 weeks but not within 1 week & discouraged jobseekers)
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what is the problem with merely adding the % of u/e & underemployed workers together (ABS)? & how does the RBA better measure the amt of spare capacity in the LM?
**doesnt give accurate view of spare capacity** in **LM** bc **u/e** usually **wanna work 3x** as many additional hrs as **underemplyoed** ppl * to measure better amt of spare capacity in LM, RBA calculates an **'Hours based Labour Underutilisation rate'**, a measure that **adds** to the **u/e rate** the **extra hrs** **underemplyoed PT workers seeking** --> converts those hrs to **equivalent** of **FT** jobs
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AUS needs eco growth rates above _% to make progress on reducing u/e
**3%**, assuming **no changes** in **medium term** trends in **immigration**, family sizes, **productivity, participation**
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the relationship betw **eco grwoth & u/e** is explained by **_'s Law** which says that to r**educe u/e**, the..+ **trade off** betwen **productivity & growth**
**Okun's Law** to **reduce u/e**, the **EG growth rate** must **exceed** the **sum og % growth in labour productivity** **&** **^size of LF over same period (Yr?)** * an implication of O's L is in **ST, higher rates of productivity growth** make it **more diff to reduce rate u/e** * conversely, one of **ST impacts of lower productivity growth** often **lower rate u/e** * **trade off** betw faster **productivity growth** & faster **employment growth** **only** **ST** * **LT**, higher lvl productivity growth should --> **stronger EG & more job creation** but in **ST mroe jobs** likely **created** during period **lower productivity** growth bc **emplyoers forced** ot **hire more** workers to**^ production** during lower growth in labour productivity ## Footnote to reduce u/e by 1% GDP must grow 2% above its LT trend -->
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structural u/e
occurs bc of structural changes within eco caused by changes in **tech/pattern** of **demand for g&s** * workers skilsl **previously useful** in **declining industries** **dont match job opps** opening up in **newly emerging** industries * msot of AUS' persistent, **LT u/e problem** attributed to structural u/e
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cyclical u/e
occurs bc of downturn in lvl eco activity & falls during times strong eco grwoth * falling demand --> fewer emp opps * major contributor to rise u/e in 2020 bc covid pademic let so short recession
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frictional u/e
represents ppl **temporarily** u/e as they **change jobs** * finihsed one job but havent started new one * takes **time to move** form 1 job to another as workers invest **time & effort finding suitable job** & **emplyoers** invest too to **search** for **suitable candidates** * **inevitable** although **increased by delays** in **matching** u/e ppl to available jobs * improving **efficiency of job matching services** through job & skills databases can hep reduce frictional u/e
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seasonal u/e
occurs at **predictable** & **regular times throughout yr** bc **seasonal nature** of some kinds of work k * accounts for influx of **students finishing school**, uni, TAFE courses betw **Dec & March** every yr * **official** u/e figures usually **seasonally adjusted** to account for these **fluctuations**
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hidden u/e
ppl who can be considered **u/e but dont fit ABS** definition of u/e & **not reflected in u/e statistics** * **discouraged job seekers** **no longer actively looking for job** * **not participating in LF** * shows in **statistics as decline in LFPR** but **not** shown **in u/e** statisitcs * ABS reported **sustained ^ in recent yrs** in no. ppl who **wanna** work & **able** to work but **not actively seeking** work eg. family responsibilities, ST illness, **study**
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underemployment
ppl **who work less than FT (35 hrs/week)** but would **like to work longer hours** * **not classified** as **u/e** * **AUS more ppl underemplyoed than u/e** * **LT trend rising** underemp reflects **faster growth in PT & casual work than FT jobs recent yrs**, **esp** for **young** workers
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LT u/employment
ppl **out of work for 12 months or longer**, **usually** from **structural** u/e * once a large pool LT u/e ppl exists, it can be **diff to reduce** * **high EG can help** bc **stops** pool **growing**but on **own not enough to solve** problem * **often** turns into **permanent u/e** bc ppl out of work long period **harder to find job** **even** when **eco activity picks up**
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why is it harder for ppl out of work for long periods to find a job even when eco picks up?
* **new arrivals** into u/e pool are re-absorbed **into workforce more quickly** esp if have **skills up to date** & **attractive for employers** > **LT u/e** * LT u/e usually suffer from **structural u/e** & **dont possess skills demanded in LM** * u/e ppl **lose confidence** they'll find work when **persistently unsuccessful** in **applying **for jobs * u/e ppl lose contact w/ paid work & **dont learn new skills** & developments in LM --> **reduce emp opps** further * potential **employers look less favourably** toward ppl **out of work** for **long PIT**
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trends in long term unemployment
* **sig decline** LT u/e as **prop total u/e** **90s & 2000s** * LT began **rising** again **after GFC + discouraged jobseekers (not actively seeking work)** **nt counted** in LT u/e * AUS' **large scale policy resposne** to **COVID** rcession effective** prevent**ing LM 'scarring' (LT u/e) whcih **initaialy doubled** but **mid 2023 fell below pre-pandemic lvl --> success** of policy respnse
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hard-core unemployment
ppl **out of work** for **so long** that employers consider **unemployable bc personal circumstances** * **mental/physical disability, drug abuse, anti-social behaviour** * when someone assessed **unable** to undertake **work even on PT** basis, placed on **disability support pension**, **not counted** in official **u/e statistics**
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NAIRU
**non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment** * lvl of **u/e** with **no cyclical u/e** (where eco is at **full employment**) * **some** lvl u/e **inevitable** in eco & efforts to **reduce** u/e **below 'natural'** lvl **counterproductive** * **conflict** betw **inflation & u/e** can be shown on **Phillips Curve** * suggests **policies to encourage eco grwoth & reduce u/e** will be **worthwhile** up **to** a **point** but **beyond**, policies only create **inflation** * **lower NAIRU increases eco's capacity to grow w/o ^ inflation**, achieved over **LT**through **policies reducing structural, seaosnal, frictional, hardcore u/e** * **trended downward** in recent decades
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when u/e is above & below NAIRU
* when **u/e above NAIRU**, there is **spare capacity in LM** **--> policymakers** should **stim eco grwoth to reduce u/e** * when u/e **at/below** NAIRU, **^ eco grwoth will ^ wage pressures** bc **insuff nos. u/e ppl to fill job vacancies** (**need** to have **right skills & be available** to work) * efforts to **reduce u/e below NAIRU** result in **higher inflation**
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hwo to reduce NAIRU
* over **LT** through **policies** that **reduce structural, seaosnal, fricitional u/e** * eg. **^ retraining programs** to **aid structural** u/e or make **easier** for workers to **change jobs/mvoe interstate/removing hurdles** for ppl w/ **disability** to **access workplace**
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explanations for u/e offered by economists
* **EG too low** to generate adequate employment grwoth * **jobseekers dont have right skills to fill job vacancies** * jobseekers **not enough adequate opps for edu & training** * **rapid structureal change** in eco --> **more** **workers** whos **skills no longer demanded** * **wage rates too high** esp for **low-skilled** workers * too many regulations surrounding employment, discouraging emplyoers from hiring new employees (>..) * some ppl **choose** remain u/e bc can **receive gvt welfare benefits** * **workers in HI ecos** whos **jobs can be performed overseas cant comepte w/ workers** who **paid low wages** in **developing ecos** * **not enough** done to **help** ppl **w/ mental illness/disability** to **find suitable work**
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how lvl eco growth causes unemployment
**demand for labour** is **derived demand** for **g&S** that labour helps **produce** * if **downturn** in lvl **AD**, downturn in demand for labour, ^ U/E LVL decline AD can be from: * **eco downturn** w/ **lower domestic consumption & investment** * **gvt policeis** (eg. **contractionary F/MP)** to **dampen demand** * **decrease** in **demand** for AUS' **exports** due to **global recession, slower growth** in ecos of **major trading partenrs/less competitive** AUS **g&S in world markets** * u/e likely start rising when **growth falls below ~2%** * growth **>3%**, lvl u/e likely **fall** * generally **time lag ~6 months** betw change in lvl **EG** & change in **employment lvls** * changes in lvl eco grwoth **mainly** affect **cyclical u/e** * **trends** in **measures** of **u/e & underutilisation** **confirm** **correlation** **w/ rate of EG**
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stance of macroeco policies affecting u/e
**MP** settings can **influence** lvl **cyclical u/e** in **S-MT** **by influencing** **BC** * **F&MP both influence** lvl **AD by influencing BC -->** influence lvl **u/e S-MT** * **expansionary** stance to **^ EG & job creation**
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rising Participation rates causing unemployment
* ^ LFPR tend cause ^ rate u/e in **ST** bc **more ppl** who **previously not seeking work** (**not** officially **unemployed**) **start actively** seeking employment * usually **during eco recovery** when many **discouraged jobseekers** observe **emp opps** improving & start looking for work * **re-enter LM & unless obtain job immediately**, u/e * lvl **u/e** only **reduced slowly during eco recovery** wven when **EG & employment growth strong bc more ppl looking** for jobs
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# textbook structural change causing unemployment
* involves **sig ST costs** * very sig is **loss of jobs in less eff industries or/& major structural change** * **globalisation** contributed to **changes in LMs** around world w/ **domestic bus'** **more integrated into GSCs --> offshoring** some jobs * OECD countries recent decades whos trade & **globalisation only 1/2 job losses as automation** * **^ remote working** & **reduction in jobs** involving **face to face contact** after COVID
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TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE CAUsing unemployment
**rapid** tech change in **ST** cause **u/e** * **pace** of **change** in **LM** expected to **accelerate**i n 2020s as **automation driven by AI applications** continues **transform jobs** * **administrative jobs** (accountants, HR staff) most at risk with >1/2 **lost** as algorithms **replace human data processing** on spreadsheets & email * **structural u/e** although tech also **creates new job opps**
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how productivity causes unemployment
**productivity of labour** sig affecting **employer decision** to ^/reduce u/e * low productivity grwoth diff S< impacts * **^productivity grwoth slows emp growth/^ u/e ST bc fewer emps required per unit of output but LT, contributes ^EG & lower u/e** * **slowdown productivity grwoth --> lower u/e ST but higher u/e LT sicne eco less competitive & slower growth** (emplyoers can **sub** greater use of **capital for** reduced **labour** use)
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how inadequate lvls of training & investment cause unemployment
**structural u/e** related to **mismatch** betw **skills** of u/e & skills demand by employers for **job vancies** * 2000s sig **skills shortages** emerged for **occupational** grousp eg. tradesppl, health professionals, construction workers * persistent skill shortages continue for wide range technicians & trade workers eg. butchers, air-conditioning mechanics, * sig nos ppl out of work --> **gaps** in AUS' **edu & training system -->** make AUS **more reliant on skilled migration** to **fill job vacancies**
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# textbook how increased labour costs contribute to unemplyoment
**sustained ^ labour costs (wages)** 1. **SHORTAGE of SKILLED LABOUR** **--> employers compete** for **limited** pool of **labour --> force up** general labour costs --> **wage inflation** 2. **EXCESSIVE WAGE DEMANDS** * **nominal wages rise too fast --> outstrup inflation & productivity ^ --> reduce bus profits.** * bus **sub capital for labour/reduce output** to improve profits 3. **FWC ^award wages** substantially in its National Minimum Wage Order to improve **LS** of **lower paid** workers --> too **expensive** for employers to **keep** **workers** 4. substantial **^** labour **ON-COSTS** * additional costs employing labour (**super**, sick **leave**, **holiday pay,** workers' compensation * mainly affected by **gvt policy decisions** * too high, **decline demand for labour**
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Fair Work Commission
**gvt agency regulate**d **AUS workplaces** * sets **min wages** * approves **enterprise agreements** * sometimes **resolves industrial disputes**
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# dont use in SA lol how inflexibility in LM causes u/e
* one reason for **higher labour costs** * relatively **high min wages** rates make **less attractive** for employers to **hire less-skilled workers** --> ^ u/e * **dereg**ulation of **LM --> lower min wages & lower u/e** * but **OECD** studies of AUS LM point to **relative flexibility** of **AUS LM** & highlight **need** for **improvement in skills & training** to **reduce underemp than LM rules**
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opportunity cost as en economic cost of unemployment (most imp)
* OC of lost output & income --> restrain AS & AD --> EG * AS: u/e --> **eco's resources not used to full capcity,** operating **under** its **PPF** --> u/e comes w/ **OC** since **not contributing to PP** --> total output/real GDP lower than potential GDP/LRAS in ST as eco below full emp & LRAS restrained by depreciation of human capital LT due to LT u/e * AD: **lower total output = lower HH incomes & expenditure --> lose income & consumer confidence --> consumption (hence investment) falls --> multiplier effect generates greater than prop fall real GDP from initial ^ u/e -->lower sales & profits** okun's law to reduce u/e by 1%, gvt must ^ EG by 2%
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why output **decreases**/increases mroe rapidly than u/e **increases**/decreases
* **multiplier**'s **impact** * changes in **hidden u/e** as **discouraged workers drop out/re-enter LF** * changes in **hrs worked for PT, casual, contract** workers (^/dec lvls **underemp)** * changes in **labour productivity** as **demand for output changes** (productivity may **fall** due to **overstaffing** during **downturns** & ^ during booms responding to ^ demand)
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lower living standards as eco cost of u/e
u/e have **lower incomes** (**rely** on **welfare payments)** --> lower LS * rely welfare payments --> struggle pay basic living costs & cant accumulate savings w/ little discretionary income available for non-essential goods * **employed** need contribute **higher taxes** to **cover cost of income support to u/e**/enjoy fewer benefits from collective g&s gvt provides as other public expenditure cut * high rates u/e --> **lower prod of consumer & capital goods (more labour resources unutilised)** --> lower LS now & future
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decling in LM skills (**human capital**) for LT unemployed as eco cost of u/e
* u/e extended POT, persistently high --> **u/e lose LM skills, confidence, experience, less/un employable** * **cyclical/ST u/e** can turn into **LT structural u/e** , '**hysteresis**' --> ^ NAIRU reduce ecos' productive capacity * **new members** of **LF** eg. young school leavers, new uni **graduates** more **diff to develop skills if unable obtain jobs** **soon finishing edu**
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hysteresis
process where **u/e** in **current** period **results** in **persistent u/e** in **future** periods as u/e ppl **lose skills, job contacts, motivation** to work
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costs to gvt (fiscal cost) as eco cost of u/e
high lvls u/e sig influence on **gvt's revenue & expenditure --> federal Budget** * **falling incomes** from u/e (& lower wage growth for employed) generates **less tax revenue** & gvt **burdened w/ ^ transfer payments** **(unemp benefits)** to u/e, & **cost of training & LM programs** * decrease in rev & ^ in expenditure **deteriorates ST budget outcomes & LT public debt lvls**
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lower wage growth as eco cost of u/e
**high u/e(& underutilisation) -->** **excess labour supply** in eco --> **downward pressure** on **wages** * **'downward stickiness'** for **wages**: nominal wages **dont** often get **reduce**d bc safety nets of min wage rates set by FWC in MAs & national min wage/EAs which cant undercut relevant awards * more **likely** lead to **slower wage growth over time** than actual reductions in nominal wages * wage growth weak when POSITIVE U/E GAP (u/e rate above NAIRU) bc spare capacity in LM & higher when neg u/e gap due to scarce labour resources * underemp lvl reflects LM' spare capacity, influence wage growth by downward pressure on wages when it's higher, also bargaining power of emps & changes in labour productivity * by suppressing wage lvls --> reduce consumption expenditure of employed & u/e, --> high u/e & sapre capacity further constrain AD & EG
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reasons why low wage growth (ask tutor if need)
**higher underemp**loyment from 2013-2021 – underemployment represents **spare capacity** in the **labour market** but is **not reflected in the unemployment gap** (ie. the presence of underemployment means that the unemployment gap is really **larger than it appears** to be) public sector wage caps – federal and state governments introduced legislated maximum pay rises in the early 2010s, which **limited wage growth** for public sector employees and indirectly reduced private sector wage increases (the federal wage cap was scrapped in 2020, while the NSW cap was scrapped in 2023) low productivity growth – with the wages of those on enterprise agreements linked to levels of productivity, low rates of productivity growth have contributed to lower wage growth in the economy (however, some have argued that higher wages lead to higher productivity by increasing employee morale – suggesting that low wage growth has contributed to lower productivity growth, not the other way around) decreased employee bargaining power – falling rates of unionisation and unfavourable changes in workplace laws (including an increase in individual contracts and fewer powers for industrial tribunals such as the FWC) led to wage growth even lower than expected based on factors such as the level of labour utilisation and labour productivity (growth in real wages fell below productivity growth in the early 2000s, indicating that the benefits of productivity gains have increasingly flowed to profits at the expense of wages)
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increased inequality as social cost of u/e
^ u/e --> less equal incoem distribution * u/e & need u/e benefits = **loss of income,** **relatively worse** off comapred to **HI earners** **--> poverty & inequality in income distribution** * widening gap betw HHs exacerbated bc **u/e** occurs **more frequent**ly among **LI earners** eg. **young & unskilled** * **'intergenerational'** dimension of inequality & **poverty** where disadv passed from 1 **generation** to next aka '**poverty trap'**
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social & eco costs of ^ overall lvl inequality in income distribution
* ^ **poverty** * more pronounced **class divisions** * ^ **inequality of opp** (poverty becomes **intergenerational**, **disadv pass**es **generations** * **slow EG** bc **constrain AD & AS (lower consumption expenditure** if prop **incoem concentrated** in **upper** quintile of HH rises since **HHs** have **higher MPS & lower MPC** than **LI** groups + ^ income inequality comes w/ **^ inequality in edu outcomes** --> less edu **WF reduce quality of labour resources --> reduce productive capacity)**
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other social costs as social cost of u/e
u/e associated many serious personal & social problems in AUS esp those suffer from **LT u/e** ^ incidence of: * severe financial hardship & **poverty** * ^ lvls **debt** * homeslessness * family tensions * **loss** work **skills** * ^ **crime** lvls * poor **health**, mental health, higher risk **suicide** * **social problems have eco cost** for community since more **resources** directed towards **dealing** w/ em * more **public funds spent on health, welfare services, social workers, police** **than satisfying** other **community wants** * ^ u/e & **inequality** can create social tensions & **backlash against globalisation** (^ public support for protectionism esp US)
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u/e for particular groups as social cost of u/e (not on GEORGIOUS)
* u/e problem **more severe** for **some** societal **groups** compared to others * young **15-19 exp** lvls **u/e 3x** rate general pop * **ATSI** relatively **high** u/e rates esp in **sparsely settled regional areas** but **no diff** in employment rates if **higher lvls edu**, --> edu & skills critical **closing gap** * **age related u/e** **highest** u/e rates, **high LF underutilisation** rate, **lower earnings** & **fewer opps** for **career progression** - **older workers** also greater difficulty finding work once they **lost a job** & most **likely out of work** for **long** **PIT** while younger workers least likely exp LT employment * **specific regions** suffer from higher u/e rates than others * **ppl born outside AUS** - **higher u/e** rate during **1st years** in country when **adjusting to language & cultural differences,** 1/4 permanent skilled migrants **over-qualified for current job** but **lacked work experience & access to local networks** - COVID lockdowns greater impact on u/e for migrants relative to AUS born pop bc conentration in accommodation & food services industries * higher u/e for some groups can indicate **discrimination & unequal emp opps in LM** * **LT** **cause** **high u/e** rates **among groups** is failures in **edu systems** eg. **remote learning** challengign for disadv students & **low skilled** workers **reduced opps** for learning during pandemic, greater need future **retraining** in changing jobs market
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**high youth u/e** rates are from
**employers seek**ing workers w/ greater **skills & experience** * explains AUS' **^ing school retention rate** & **LT ^participation** in **tertiary edu**cation * **most jobs require post-secondary school skills**, challenge for AUS' **edu & training ststem** to manage transition from school to further edu, training, apprenticeships * no. young workers looking for FT employment u/e 12+ months ^54% in yr to march 2021 bc above-avg lvls **casual & PT empoyment** & heavier concentration of young workers in sectors eg. hospitality & accommodation among devastated industries
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gvt challenges using policies to reduce u/e
**lasting reductions** in u/e **take time** to achieve, **dependent** upon **sustaining EG** over **long time** * **rising** u/e --> gvts challenge to **minimise ST ^** in joblessness to acheive **fastest return** to low u/e * broader gvt challenge to reduce **LT structural** u/e through **LM policies, investing in training** & wider **eco reforms** * Okun's Law: ^ labour productivity/size of LF --> can ^ real GDP w/o dec u/e 'jobless growth' --> growth rates must be high enough to create enough jobs for LM entrants & existing u/e
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main instruments to reduce cyclical unemployment
**macroeco policies** to **sustain grwoth** & **minimise sharp downturns in BC** * employment is **derived demand for production** --> reductions in u/e need **^output** * **expansionary FP** (lower taxes/^ gvt spending) can **stim eco activity** & **^ output through multiplier effect** (^ spending more effective bc gvts only hope tax cuts will ^ consumption/investment) * eg. gvts ^ **expenditure** on **infrastructure** **--> bus ^ investment & employ** more * **expansioanry MP** (lower IRs) stim **consumer spending & bus nvestment --> ^ output**
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main macroeco policy goals since 1990s
* goals achieving EG rate 3/+% & keeping inflation in 2-3% targt band central to macroeco policy since 1990s
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in addition to addressing cyclical u/e through macroeco policeis, gvts also use ... to address structural u/e
by lifting eco's **efficiency, competitiveness** & **productivity,** **microeco reform** aims to **^ EG** & **job creation** over **LT** despite ^ structural u/e ST * **reduce tariffs, dereg**ulation, **comp policy**, **privatisation, tax reform** * esp **LM policies** **(industrial relations, edu, training**, welfare to work initiatives) to **^emp growth** over time
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**labour market policies**
imp role **reducing types u/e** range available to **gvts** : * **edu & training** programs for ppl **out of work**/**risk** of u/e * measures to **improve matching** **u/e to job vacancies** * policies to **^ demand for labour** by making more **attractive for employers to hire** workers eg. wage subsidies
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since 1990s, changes to LM regulations (eg. _ _) gave employers more flexibility in determining _ _. these changes aimed to
**enterprise bargaining, employment conditions** (policies for wage determination & LM regulation influence how forces of demand & supply interact in LM) * **^ productivity** & give **employers incentives to hire** workers * ongoing debate how AUS can **balance policies** give **flexibility to employers & policies** provide **fair pay** & **conditiosn to employees** (also policies for ^EG & LS)
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successive gvts have implemented LM policies to
move inds **off welfare** & **into paid emp**loyment * making **harder to access** welfare payments eg. **longer waiting periods (vary depending on one's lvl savings), toughter eligiblity rules**, requirements to** keep applying** for **jobs** & undertake **training** * if more diff to access income support payments, (which failed to keep pace w/ wage growth & living costs recent decades) **encourage** u/e to **actively seek work/add edu & training** * BUT many argue low u/e benefits & tight eligibility restrictions hurt job prospects of u/e by making more diff to meet costs of finding job(?)
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gvts can influence LM through **immigration policies**
AUS high lvls immigration * **reduce rather than ^ u/e** bc immigration program focus on **skilled** **workers** & migrants contribute to ^ labour demand via their demand for output & starting new bus which expand & employ existing aussies * BUT massive ^ temporary migration to AUS (unlike permanent migration) is uncapped & less favourable LM impacts bc likelier unskilled & compete w/ local jobseekers for job vacancies w/o adding as much as permanent migrants to AD & demand for labour
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how gvt policcy changes aimed at **supply side of LM**
**^ WF particiaption** by **reform**ing **way tax & welfare systems interact** (more effective policy change) * **u/e** ppl **& low income earners** often face **high 'effective marginal tax rates' --> every extra dollar earned from work pay tax & lose a portion of welfare benefit** (undermines incentive to seek paid work) --> disincentive 'poverty trap' if u/e benefits to generous/marginal tax rates too high --> create eco disadv in accepting job * **reducing** marginal rates of income tax & ^ thresholds for LI earners --> **incentives to lift WF participation & ^ emp**loyment (reduce welfare traps) * **changes to parental leave programs** ti & supply by making it **easier** for parents to **stay emp** **LT** * **paid parental leave** w/ policies to make **child care affordable** & **accessible** **easier** for **both parents to maintain emp**loyment & take care of **children**
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how changes to parental leave programs improve LM
**^ LM supply** & **reduce hidden u/e** by making **easier for parents to stay emp LT** * **paid parental leave** & extended unpaid leave w/ policies making **childcare more accessible & affordable --> easier for both parents** to **maintain emp & care for children**
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gvt policies can help reduce frictional u/e by
helping **match jobseekers w/ job vacancies** * introduced WF AUS Online july 2022 **emp services** platform help **online job searching & funding most disadv jobseekers & LT u/ed**. * AUS' **job placement policies** criticised for underinvestment in helping those need most, spends **<1/2 OECD avg** on employment services (--> ppl drop out LM altogether)
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inflation
**sustained** increase in **general lvl of prices in an eco** * measured in AUS by **% change in CPI**, which **summarises the movement in the prices of a basket of g&s, weighted according to their significance for the avg AUS HH** * annual inflation rate caclulated by % change in CPI over the year
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CPI
* basket of g&S used to calculate the CPI doesnt include all g&S available in eco but covers wide selection reflecting **avg HH spending patterns** * CPI gives good indication of **overall movement in prices of consumer goods** & reflects **general changes in cost of living** (how much ocnsumers have to pay for g&S they buy) * compiled by ABS & published **every 3 months** * excludes some items of Hh spending eg. changesi n mortgage IRs & consumer credit charges * doesnt include prices of property/land so changes in residentical property prices recent yrs not reflected directly in CPI * weights given to expenditure groups in the basket based on ABS HH Expenditure Survey * ABS regularly updates weighting for each expenditure group to accurately reflect avg consumer purchasing patterns
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the official rate of inflation its limit, how to combat it
'**headline'** inflation * calculated using the **CPI** * can be **misleading** indicator of **ongoing price pressures** in eco bc **includes some g&S** whose **prices highly volatile**/**affected** by **one-off** factors * prefer **underlying inflation** aka 'core' inflation * underlying inflation **removes effects of one-off/volatile price movemetns --> less variable** than headline inflation * **underlying** inflation either **below/above headline** inflation rate eg. one-off dramatic falls in prices of certain goods reduced headline inflation rate but had much smalelr impact on underlying rate
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trimmed mean inflation (to measure underlying inflation)
calculate avg inflation rate after excluding the 15% of items w/ largest price increases & 15% of items w/ smallest price increases/(largest price falls) from the CPI
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weighted median inflation
**inflation rate** of the item at the **middle** of the **price change**s in the **CPI basket** (the **50th percentile by weight**).
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when the RBA refers to its own estimate of underlying inflation, it is referring to the
**average** of the **trimmed mean** & **weighted median added** together & then divided by 2 * (trimmed mean + weighted median)/2
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demand pull inflation (main causes of inflation)
when **AD/spending growing** while **eco near**ing its **supply capacity** so higher demand **leads** to **higher prices** not **more output** * in **market eco**, **prices** determined by interaction of **supply & demand** in market * when **AD/spending exceeds** eco's **productive capcity**, **prices rise** as **output can't expand more in ST** * **consumers force** prices up by **bidding against each other** for **limited g&S available** * consumers willing pay higher price any given lvl supply (price ^ that results from higher AD)
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cost push inflation (main causes of inaltion)
when ^ in production costs eg. (wage increases) that producers pass on in form of higher prices, raising inflation rate * casued by **^ costs of FOP** * when production costs rise, firms try pass on to consumers by raising price of products * producers face **higher costs** so **supply less quantity** for any **given price lvl** * ^price --> **contract demand**
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major sources of cost push inflationary pressures in AUS eco
* **Wages & prices of raw materials** eg. fuel * when **wages ^ faster than productivity growth, ^ cost of labour per unit of output** * wages typically 60% of firm's costs, firms attempt **pass** wage ^ to **consumers to maintain profitability** * ^ price raw materials --> ^ price product to maintain **profit margins** **(similarly**)
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(2 ways) inflationary expectations (main causes of inflation)
1. if prices of g&s expected to ^ in eco, **consuemrs** **purchase products before prices increase** * consumers ^ consumption --> **higher demand-pull inflation** * if **firm expects demand** for product will **^, raise prices to max profits** --> ^ inflation 2. **employees** expect inflation ^, **negotiate wage increases** * **workpalce contracts** typically **negotiated in advance** for next **2,3 yrs** so if emp expects higher inflation next few years ask for higher wage rise to **preserve purchasing power of wage --> firms pass wage increases --> cost push inflation**
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managing inflationary expectations as a major challenge for policymakers
once inds expect higher inflation, act in way that accelerate higher inflation, entrench in eco --> take eco contraction (eg. 1990s recession) to bring expectations down
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imported inflation (main causes of inflation) + international factors in reducing inflation
trasnfer to AUS via international transactions * **depreciate AUD --> ^ dom price of imports --> inflation** * **extent** **^** in import **prices/fall in AUD** **--> consuemrs** **pay higher** prices for imports **depends on market conditions** * if **imports** face **comp from locally made products, importers** can **reduce profit margens & not pass to consumers** full effect of overseas price rise/depreciation * **imported inflation** accounts for **larger share** of variability in **headline inflation** rate than past (AUS **integration with global eco**) * also **international factors** sig reducing inflation in AUS (**lwo fuel prices** **directly reduce inflation** bc **sig** item in **basket of g&s** to **measure CPI,** & **indirectly** bc **lower prod costs** for AUS businesses)
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gvt policies (other causes of inflation)
direclty influence lvl inflation (&price): * by ^ indirect taxes, gvt impact general lvl prices * eg. gvt make child care free for parents during lockdown reduced headline rate of inflation to below 0 * deregulating an industry * changing tariff rates * imposing price controls * price monitoring * increasing charges for g&S provided by AUS gvt
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excessive increases in money supply ( other causes of inflation)
* when **^ money supply outstrips EG rate**, an ^d volume of money chases the same **amt g&s --> prices** likely rise * if **money supply ^ w/o ^ real production --> ^ AD relative to supply** that causes inflation * 'monetary inflation'
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high inflation effects on eco growth & uncertainty
* one of major **constraints on EG** * **excessive EG** --> raise **inflationary pressues (^ wage demands, strong ocnsumer demand bidding up price lvls)** * higher inflation **distorts eco decision making (producers & consumers** change their **spendign & investment** decisions to **minimise effect** on themselves eg. **buy assets > investing income producing activities)** * discourage bus investment bc makes **producers uncertain abt future prices & costs --> future profit** lvls * distort consumers' decisions to **spend/save disposable income** * likelier **spend & not save** during high inflation **bc purchasing power reduced** over time however recently **other factors (house prices, super, broader eco outlook) can be mre influencing lvl savings in eco** * when **eco strong performance & ppl's assets rising value, consumption rises & savings rate falls even when inflation rates low** * **consumers spend more to avoid holding money that will buy less later.**
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low inflation effects on eco grwoth & uncertainty
* **sustained** lower inflation rate --> **maintain moderate EG w/o** curtailing growth through **higher IRs** * low inflation beneficial EG bc removes **distorition** to **investment & savings** **decisions** from high inflation * **incentive to invest in LT productive assets > ST speculative investments** (bus investment) * sustained low inflation **encourage consumers to save higher prop of disposable income** (^APS)
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effects of inflation on wages
major influence on **nominal wage** (**pay received by employees in dollar terms for contribution to PP not adjusted for inflation)** **demands** * higher inflation --. employees seek larger wage increases to compensate for erosion of purchasing power of nominal wages --> **wage-price inflationary spiral** diff to break, wage ^ --> higher prices --> higher wage demands... * AUS recent yrs lower inflation rates **reduced annual wage growth** (check tectbook) * if **inflation exceed growth of nominal wages, real wages decline** as employees **lose purchasing power** as **prices ^ at higher rate than income**
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inflation effect on income distribution
high inflation rates --> **lower income earners incomes dont rise quickly as prices**, face **higher IRs on borrowings** * hurts inds on **fixed incomes**/incomes **not indexed to/rise as fast as inflation rate** * **erod value of existing savings** so inds who cant protect their savings from the impact of inflation's **net wealth** declines
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how inflation affects unemployment
closely related in **ST** * higher lvls inflation --> more **contractionary fiscal & monetary policies** **--> slower eco grwoth & higher u/e in S-MT** * high lvls u/e often have low infaltion rates (demonstrated by **Phillips curve**) * previously gvts chose betw **low inflation & slower growth/lower u/e at risk of rising inflation** * over **LT** inverse relationship **breaks down** eg. mid 1970s AUS simultaneous ^s in inflation & u/e (**Stagflation**)
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how inflation causes an exchange rate depreciation
**purchasing power parity** theory says **ER** in **LT** changes to **reflect real purchasing power of currencies** --> goods** traded globally** (processed food, clothes, electronic goods) **cost roughly similar** amts in **diff countries** once moeny **converted **into** local currency** * ecos w/ **high inflation** should exp **depreciation relative to ecos w/ lower** inflation rates * assumes **free trade & floating exchange rates** eg. ER equal 2 countries if 1 higher inflation then price of its bikes rise & AUS **become more internationally competitive, ^ exports** to NZ & NZ consumers **switch to cheaper AUS substitutes** --> **^ demand for AUD --> appreciation** --> AUS bikes **less competitive, restore PPP betw 2 ecos** * doesnt work perfectly bc **local factors (transport costs, taxes, ST influences of global financial flows on currencies)** * PPP LT anchor for ER betw diff countries
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how inflation affects international competitiveness
**ability** of an **eco's exports** to **compete** on **global markets** * eco can be competitive by **selling products of higher quality/lower price than competitors** * high inflation --> **^ prices** for AUS **exports --> reduce international competitiveness --> lower quantity of exports** * as **price domestic goods ^, soneumrs switch to import substitues --> worsen trade deficit** * **low inflation improve AUS IC** --> **price** of AUS g&s **more attractive** to **other countries** & make **local products more competitive w/ imports** -->** expansion of exports & replace imports w/ domestic substitutes** --> **improve trade deficit**
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inflation impacts on the ER
**ST** higher inflation **appreciate ER** bc **speculators anticipate RBA raising IRs -->** attract **^ financial flows** * high inflation causes currency to **depreciate over time** * stronger relationship when depreciation causes high inflation * **LT, sustained low inflation** may foster **^ interntaional confidence in AUS eco** & **strengthen value **of AUD
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how infaltion affects IRs
lower inflation --> reductions in nominal IRs (nominal IRs based on real rate of return (real IR) + inflation) * higher inflation --> higher IRs as **RBA** tries **reduce demand pressures** in eco & **avoid neg consequences of high inflation**
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benefits of inflation
limited * **small** amt inflation beneficial bc allows **adjust**ments in **relative prices** in an eco **w/o** requiring **reductions in normal prices** often '**sticky' esp wages** * **easier for debtors to repay loans with money less valuable than money they borrowed. --> ^ borrowing and lending, --> ^ spending** * low positive lvl inflation **reduces likelihood** of eco experiencing **falling prices** (**deflation**), can also have neg consequences * **deflation** gives **consumersi ncentive to delay purchases --> fall consumer spending & eco downturn** * also makes **borrowing money less attractive** bc **amt repaid rising in real terms** (not falling) * also make **hiring workers less attractive** if **nominal wage rates stay same** & **real wages rise** * RBA targets low inflation lvls to avoid but dont strive for 0 inflation --> ^ risk of deflation & other eco problems
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___ policy has been the main tool to acheive low inflation but occassionally ___ ___ __ -____also used to address price pressures
**MONETARY**, other parts of the policy mix * played primary role in AUS' low inflation record since early 1990s * **S-MT,** MP attemps **sustain EG lvl doesnt create inflationary pressures**, hold between **RBA'S 2-3% target** * if starts **rising, RBA ^ IRs** throughout eco by **tightening** MP --> **dampen sonumer & investment spending --> lower lvl ecoactivity --> lower inflation**
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RBA has used __ **monetary policy** by
**pre-emptive MP** by taking action against **inflation before** problem * generally aims to **^ IRs before inflation** reaches **top of target band** to account **time lag betw policy implementation & effect**
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RBA attemped to make use of MP predictable by emphasising
consistently its **intention** to use MP primarily to **ensure inflation remains within target band --> lower inflatioanry expectations --> reduce inflation**
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how **fiscal policy** CAN Also play a support role in maintaining inflation (not main policy)
* period rising inflationary pressures, gvt can ^ revenue & reduce spending to minimise demand pressures in the eco --> **reduce demand-pull inflation** * FP settings support low inflation object can **reduce need** for **higher IRs** to combat inflation
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(3) AUS GVT's use of **microeco policies** contributed to eco's __ record of low inflation
LT 1. reduced **PROTECTION --> lower M prices & ^ comp** faced by **domestic producers** from **overseas competitors** & new entrants to domestic markets --> mroe **diff for domestic producers to raise prices** 2. **LM reforms** try ensure **wage ^s link to productivity improvements** * **^ productivity -->** eco **afford real wage ^S w/o inflationary pressures** & large wage rises in **other sectors** of eco (**deregulated LM)** * hire easily, find jobs faster, labour resources used more efficiently --> participation, 3. greater **investment** in eco **infrastructure** (roads, railways) **avoid** transport & **bottlenecks** that **^ production costs & add inflationary pressures** * labour mobility, transport costs
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in LT, inflation more influenced by _ factors than by uniquely _ factors
global > domestic
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external stability
aim of **gvt policy** to promote **sustainab**ility on **external accs **so AUS can **service** its **foreign liability** in **M-LT** & **avoid ucrrency volatility** * ensures **imbalances** in AUS' relationship w/ **global eco dont hinder **achieving domestic **eco policy goals (higher growth, lower u/e, lower inflation**) bc goals affected by external imbalances (**unsustainable ^ in CAD/foreign liabilities/large movements of ER)** * IF**overseas investors** decide AUS' **ext**ernal **position not sustainable --> depreciat**ion of currency, **withdraw investment funds, diff** for **firms to access overseas FMs, higher IRs, slower EG**
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what are the 3 key measures of external stability in an eco?
ER, CA balance, NFL not: * NPI, BOGS, * foreign debt, * global EG, * gobal IRs, * net foreign debt, * budget deficits
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rising foreign ownership in AUS as an external stability issue for AUS recent decades
* high lvls result in **large share profits going offshore ** * offset NPI acc outflows but inflows of profits from AUS investments overseas
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although ppl concerned abt AUS' external imbalances, grown/receded recent yrs bc
receded bc **'improved CA**' & bc **external imbalances havent neg impacted AUS' eco performance** * AUS **maintained confidence** of **foreign investors** whilst **larger external imbalances than most adv ecos** (**^ commodity export revenues strengthen confidence** in **sustainability** of AUS' external imbalances)
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CAD as % of GDP
best measure of trends in CA over time rather than size of CAD in dollar terms * accurate comparison across time & betw countries * long history large CADs since 1980s, paid out considerably more for goods, ervices, income than received from overseas
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diff explanation for AUS' persistent CAD
* extent CAD perceived as problem & policy response required depends on factors causing it * **sustainable?** * high CAD 1st as largely a trade problem related to AUS' balance on g&s, most ppl see as structural issues related to primary income acc * CAD result of **Svings & investment gap rather than a trade gap** --> argue sustainable since result of high lvls direct investment in AUS --> help generate higher eco grwoth & exports in LT * others say puts AUS risk not able to finance its external liabilities
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CAD as a trade deficit 3 explanations of AUS' persistent CAD + 2 arguments that its from a trade gap (mindmap this)
* CAD **1980S** blames on persistent **deficits** on **BOGS** caused by **slow export growth** & **expanding demand for imports** * BOGS **not main** contributor to AUS' CAD but crucial part of AUS BOP performance 1. AUS **lacks international competitiveness** in many **higher value-added** areas of **global trade** eg. ETMs * many of AUS' trad **manuf industries** **lose their markets** at home & overseas bc **unable to compete** w/ **overseas comeptitors** who **specialise in large-scale, low cost manufacturing** * many areas **manuf largely moved offshore** (clothes, textiles, electronics) * AUS' manuf sector **declined as share total output --> ^ reliance on M** * **since 2000s** sustained period **high commodity prices --> appreciate AUD --> AUS' non-commodity resources less competitive** * **'Dutch disease' demand for 1 type X may drive up value of ER --> make other exports less competitive --> contract production** of said exports * **lack IC** from cost factors **(ability to sell g&s at attractive prices on global markets** due to **ERs, labour costs, productivity** lvls) & non cost factors **(quality of production, reliability of supply,** marketing efforts, customer services) * AUS **lags behind avg for adv ecos in infrastructure access** esp **electricity & IT** --> impact **ability** AUS **access international X markets** 2. AUS' **TOT** major **effect changes in CAD** * global commodity prices went into **LT decline 1975-2000 --> slower growth in AUS' export rev & ^ CAD** * trend changes 2003 TOT ^ dramatically * **large ivnestments in mining sector to take adv of higher prices for resource exports --> 2010s sustained downward trend in CAD --> aus' 1st CAS's** in almsot 5 decades * **relationship betw movements in TOT & AUS' trade balance (hence CAD) strengthened recent yrs** from avg deficit 1.5% of GDP 200s to avg surplus 0.2% 2010s * while AUS profited from period high commodity prices, **risk of heavy reliance on minerals & energy exports** is** sharp fall in prices** fror them**/major disruption to AUS' exports to China --> large ^ in CAD**
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CAD as a savings-investment gap, 3 explanations of AUS' persistent CAD
result of excess domestic investment > domestic savings **savings-investment gap** * if **dometic spending > domestic output --> CAD** --> make up by bringing in **financial inflow from overseas (AUS BORROWS from overseas/sells domestic assets to overseas)** * **foreign savings** instead of domestic savings used to **finance domestic investment** * if gvt runs **budget deficit --> reduce lvl national savings** & **widen S&I gap** * relationship betw/ **bus investment, net saving** & **fall in investment** helped **narrow gap & lower CAD** * country w/ small pop, large land mass, **extensive natural resource** AUS relied on **overseas capital(foreign investment(** to **fill gap betwn domestic S&I to develop** eco **more rapidly than** if **relied only on domestic sources of capital** * as long as **foreign investors & loans increasing** AUS' **productive capcity** & **not** just **funding purchase of existing assets** eg. housing, **add** to AUS' **capacity to service** its **foreign liabilities** --> **CAD sustainable LT**
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the 'consenting adults' thesis (Pitchford thesis) ,3 explanations of AUS' persistent CAD
thesis: **as long as a CAD result** of **S&I** decisions by **private sector** & **not** from **distorition** to normal **market mechanisms**, **no concern** abt **eco's ext stability** * **AUS' CAD & foreign liabilities almost entirely** generated by **private sector** --> argue AUS' CA problem diff from other c's w/ large external imbalances who exp **financial crises from large foreign debt burdens bc their debt was result of gvt borrowings** * AUS' **foreign liabilities helped fund private investment projects**/were direct **investments in firms** & ventures **by foreign residents** * if private sector decision making not distorted by other factors eg. gvt policy, inds & firms make **proper calculations of risks & costs of borrowing** fro overseas & borrowers & lenders responsible for own decisions - 'consulting adults' * AUS' foreign liabilities largely accumulated by private sector --> aus gvt no need to be too concerned abt lvl foreign liabilities more than w/ lvl domestic liabilities
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cirticism against 'consenting adults' thesis (Pitchford thesis) contributing to persistent CAD
* criticised since GFC, whether assunption (that private sector decision making involves proper calculation of risks) always true * large FIs unable accurately calculate risks of borrowing & lending w/ complex financial products (mrotgage-backed securities) in GFC * also assumes private sector debt entirely separate from public sector debt but GFC national gvts forced to assume liabilities of their c's private-sector banks to avert serious financial collapse but AUS better eco perf during global recession GFC supported at least in enviro of strong commodity prices, AUS' external imbalances sustainable
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net foreign liabilities/net external liabilities
are equal to **AUS' financial obligations (foreign debt + foreign equity) to rest of world - rest of world's ifnancial obligations to AUS** hence, **net foreign debt** **( total stock of loans owed by aussies to foreigners = total stock of loans owed by foreigners to aussies) + net foreign equity (total value assets in AUS** * eg. land, shares, companies in foreign ownership **- total value assets overseas owned by aussies)** * reflect AUS' **total finacncial obligations to foreigners minus total financial obligations of foreigners to AUS**
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overseas borrowing adds directly to AUS'
**foreign debt** * **initial borrowed sum eventually** has to be repaid & debt must be **serviced w/ regular interest payments** * servicing of AUS' debt constitutes an **outflow of funds on CA --> ^ CAD** * **selling assets to foreigners doesnt add directly to AUS' foreign debt** * AUs **dont have to repay price** of **purchasing equity unless company/assets sold back to aussies** * however aus **must send overseas returns on equity investment (company profits, rent on land, dividends on shares)** * **recent yrs** **equity servicing costs on PI acc exceeded interest repayments on debt** * **returns on equity** AUS pays to overseas investors **partly offset by returns received** by aussies from **investments overseas**
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**growth in AUS' net foreign liabilities as % of GDP**
reflects growth in net foreign debt & changes in net foreign equity * trend of ongoing growth in AUS' **net foreign debt to GDP ratio** since beginning of globalisation era 1980s * fluctuations can occur in ST responding to movements in AUD & trends in foreign investment inflows & outflows
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in LT, **excessive** growth in AUS' **foreign debt** could lead to a __ __ problem
**debt sustainability** problem * **debt size rising faster than ^ GDP** (like most yrs), **interest payments** on debt will progressively take up **greater prop of GDP --> reduce AUS** overall **SOL & EG protential** * **high foreign debt** can create cycle "**debt trap scenario**", starting with a **high CAD --> requires inflow of foreign funds** ( foreign debt/**selling AUS assets to foreigners**) **--> larger foreign debt**, AUS' interest payments on the debt ^ --> record as **PI debits outflows on CA**, hence today's foreign debt adds to future deficits on the CA
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if international FMs suspect AUS' debt may become unsustainable, they may ... however, AUS has avoided a debt sustainability problem bc..
**reduce** AUS' **international credit rating** (whcih reflects confidence that FMs have in AUS) --> More **diff to borrow funds internationally --> ^ IR** on borrowing * a **sustained long period** of **low global IRs & rising export revenue** ensured AUS able to **service its foreign liabilites**
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**debt servicing ratio**
measure c's **capacity to service its foreign debt** * **prop of export revenue msut be spent on interest payments on foreign debt** * c better service its foreign debt when has **high volume of exports --> earn large amts of foreign currency** * 2020-21 AUS fell, despite ^ in foreign debt lvls, very low lvls of global IRs & rapid growth in value of exports meant that servicing cost of that debt is manageable
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historically, most foreign investment flows into AUS (both _ & _) have been into the _ sector
**debt & equity** into the **private sector** * partial **inflow from offshore funding of banking sector** - **Aus banks borrow on overseas FMs to make loans to AUS HH &bus** * however after GFC **banks reduced reliance on offshore funding** bc **^d domestic savings** * **larger share** of **capital flows into AUS** gone **into investment securities** as **foreign investors purchase AUS GVT debt** * AUS **gvt** one of small no. national gvts that still holds a **AAA credit rating, attractive to overseas lenders bc very low risk lvl**
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**net foreign equity**
**smaller** component of AUS' **foreign liabilities** * when **foreign investors buy assets in AUS**, recorded as **^ foreign equity** * when **aussies buy overseas assets,** recorded as **dec net foreign equity** * **since 2013, value of AUS' foreign assets > value of foreign ownership of AUS assets (negative net foreign equity thus NFL) --> trend ^ in AUS ownership of foreign assets** * as a % of GDP peaked in 1990s bc foreign ivnestment in AUS increasingly involved asset sales than foreign borrowing * **mroe volatile than net foreign debt** --> reflects **ER movemetn**s & **shifts in market valuation of companies & assets** which are affected by **changes in investor sentiment**
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foreign equity attracts servicing costs in the form of _ & _ that are...
**profits & dividends returned to overseas investors,** can create ongoing strain on AUS' external accs by **worsen**ing **NPI** acc (although **offset by earnings from AUS' overseas investments**) * some dis of foreign ownership but **sustainability of servicing costs for foreign equity less concern than foreign debt** bc **dividends only sent overseas when AUS asset/bus generating profitable return** while **interespt payemtns on debt must be paid regardless if theres profit** | there was a short answer in the 2nd part
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equity servicing costs account for around _ of total primary income outflows
half
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while there has been a rise/fall in AUS' net foreign liabilities, this masks the ..
.large **rise** in **value** of AUS **investments overseas** & overall **growth of other ocuntries' liabilities to AUS** * however, AUS' **gross foreign liabilities still larger** & over same period, **foreign owned equity in AUS increased while gross foreign debt increased** * while AUS' **gross foreign debt ~2/3 > lvl AUS lendign to overseas, gap betw foreign equity inflows & outflows much smaller**
164
in overall terms, as AUS become increasingly integrated into global eoc, foreigners have been lending & investing in AUS more/less than AUs has been lendign or investing overseas
more
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Australia's extenral imbalance has potential to cause problems for AUS in short/long term, although
**longer term**, but occassionally concern in recent decades * among **adv ecos, AUS relatively high foreign liabilities w/ CADs appear unsustainable in LT** * if **global conditions** became **less favourable** to AUS they in last 2 decades, can make AUS **vulnrable** * eg. **reliance** of **AUS financial system** on **ongoing inflow of foreign capital** major reason whygvt provided a temporary guarantee for all overseas loans of banks & FIs after GFC * shows extent consistently high lvl external imbalance increases vulnerability of eco to adverse eco developments overseas
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AUS' exchange rate
direct link betw AUS & rest of world * all trade & financial relations betw AUS & other countries **mediated** through this * hence **sig impact** on AUS **international competitiveness & external stability**
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AUS' ER volatility
* high lvl volatility in AUD result of AUS **heavily reliance on commodity exports, larger fluctuations** in commodity-based currencies often **attract speculators** * more result of **^d global eco instability** than domestic
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trends in AUS' ER
* **very low commodity prices 2000s** & internet developed --> countries w/ 'low tech' ecos eg. AUS shunned by global markets * changed **after 2003** when AUS began **largest TOT boom** in its history as **commodity prices rose sharply w/ China's surging demand for natural resources** * trend **^ in AUD continued until 2011 bc of rising exports, sustained eco grwoth & IR differential betw AUS & other ecos** * falling **TOT sharp fall** in AUD **early 2010s** * another depreciation alter that year reflected **weakness in AUS eco, stronger growth in other ecos**, then COVID 19 global reccion on commodity exporters eg. AUS but resilience & its **rising TOT** contributed to **appreciation in currency**
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although the ER itself experienced periods of volatility, it has operated as a powerful _ mechanism that helped AUS eco adjust to ...
pwoerful mechanism to **adjust** changing **conditions in global eco** * during periods **weaker growth in AUS/global eco,** ER **depreciations** helped AUS more **internationally competitive** & stimulated **export growth** * after 2011 fall in TOT, depreciation made **exporters & import-competing sectors more comeptitive** * many **non-mining firms in there adversely affected by high value of AUD** during mining boom * **recent yrs** lower dollar supported international competitiveness in **export industries**
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floating ER on AUS' external stability
helps AUS adjust to changing global conditions w/ sig impact on AUS external stability * change in ER influences **BOP** by affecting AUS' **international copetitiveness & size and servicing costs** of AUS **foreign debt borrowed in foreign currency** * if value of dollar continually subject to change, 2 of major indicators in AUS' external stability also volatile, create policy challenges & eco instability
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what happens if theres a sudden/large depreciation in AUD due to a fall in condifence of foreign investors?
vicious cycle * **investors fear further volatility in the dollar** & **discouraged investment decisions** if dollar falling **sharply** bc target of finacnial **speculators who make money from ST FM changes** * **downward trend, can continue until enough investors believe currency undervalued & starts buying again** * Forex markets often overshoot when major currency movements occur
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macroeco policy & achieving external stability
**recent yrs, external stability not major obj of macroeco policy** * aim improving external stability **not major influence on F/MP settings** * reflects acceptance of '**consenting adults**' view of **CA** among **policymakers** that CADs & foreign debt reflect ecisions of **private sector** & dont require policy change by gvt * reduced concern **AUS' improved Medium term export prospects, recent trade surpluses & ^ HH savings** * achieving **sustainable** outcomes on **CA & foreign liabilities & value of currency** **LT** ojbs of eco policy, **reduce risk of external shocks** could adversely affect AUS' **access to GFMs**
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the **4 LT policy** settings addressing **external stability** issues to **reduce risk of external shocks** neg affecting AUS' access to GFMs:
1. **MP** * past, **contractionary** MP to **reduce consumer spending on M** to create **ST improve BOGS** * now **ineff** since **temporary impact** & results in **slowdown across eco** * **higher IRs can ^ capital inflows --> ^NPI outflows --> worsen CA** * **unable to target LT structural causes of AUS' external imbalances** 2. **fiscal policy**\ * some role addressing AUS' **low lvl** **national savings** * adopt policy of **fiscal consolidation (running balanced/surplus budgets over course of eco cycle)**, gvts since late 90s**reduce influence on private savings over MT** * after COVID fiscal strat gvt prioritised **higher growth & ower u/e > fiscal consolidation --> aus' public debt lvls high throughout 2020s & neg effect national savings** * **if debt falls as share of GDP** 2024-25 onwards, **improve**ment in **national savings** & **lessen upward pressure on IRs & 'crowding out' of private borrowers** 3. **compulsory super** requires employers to set aside **10% of emp's wages in a superfund** --> **lifted lvl national savings** since early 90s * major contribution to **^d AUS' overseas investments** --> create **financial inflows on NPI acc** * ^s in super so reaches **12% over 5 yrs --> support external balance** 4. **microeco reform** can address **structural** problems causign AUS' **external imbalances** * **international competitiveness** of AUS g&s improved if measures lifting **productivity** of AUS producers * policies include measures to **reduce capacity constraints** in the eco by improving **infrastructure** & alleviating **skills shortages, remove protection**ist barriers **shielding ineff producers from foreign comp,** **LM reforms** to **^ productivity & Workforce participation**
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in practical terms, what is the best measure of external stability? how does the gvt appraoch this?
the **extent** whcih AUS **maintains confidence of international investors** * gvts through **consistent, MT policy** settings eg. AUS'** infaltion targeting, goal budget surpluses**, contniued **microeco reform** --> **largely successful** maintaining international confidence in AUS' eco **recent decades** * **international investors** mostly accepted '**consenting adults**' view of AUS' **CAD & foreign debt**
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connection betw private & public sector borrowings
* even if **high lvl foreign debt** result of **private sector borrow**ings, **gvts** can be **forced** to tak **eresponsibility** to **prevent** a meltdown of their entire **financial system** & potential **eco depression** * AUS **GVT guaranteed its private sector foreign debt**, which **undermines** argument that **private sector borrowings from overseas dont matter** bc shows in times of **extreme financial isntability, extl imbalance** (whatever origins) can **make** **eco mroe vulenrable to ext shocks**
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distribution of income & wealth
major challenge gvt policy to ensure fairness in distribution of welath & eco **opp** in society * ecos w/ **smaller gap** in incomes betw high & low **income earners** have **greater happiness**, better **health outcomes**, higher lvls **social mobility** * **globalisation increased inequ in many countries** * one o greatest challenges **adjust**ing to **structural** eco **change** is ensuring **one part society doesnt have unfair share** of **burden** of change & **benefits dont just flow** to those **financially well off**
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AUS' income & wealth distribution
traditionally **relatively lw** lvls **inequality** * around **OECD avg** * income ineq increased 1990s & 2000s but **sustained EG, unviersal access to public edu & HC & targeted social security safety net prevent widening inequality** * deg of **income ineq** in AUS **^** since mid 1990s * AUS has **more unequal dist than many OECD** ecos (above median)
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many factors that increase inequality are
**side effects of policies** that encourage **market** forced & **improve competitiveness** * lvls ineq can ^ when nations implement eco policies eg. **reduce marignal income tax rates, restrict welfare, reduce spending on public services, deregulat LMs** * but **always** **trade-off betw ^grwoth & reduced inequ** * **high lvls ineq can reduce eco grwoth**
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personal income
* amt of **money/other benefits measured in monetary terms** that **flows to inds/HHs from sale of FOP over PIT** * wages from labour, rent from land, interest from capital, profit from enterprise * benefit flows to owners of FOP for **owning, maintaining, managing productive resources** * **pensions** & benefits from **gvt**
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incoem inequality
**degree** which income **unevenly distributed** among **ppl** in the **eco** * high lvl **equality** : ppl receive **similar share of income or large gap** betw **high & low income earners**
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how incoem ineq cna be measured
by the **share of total income received by diff groups** * **prop of dispoable income** (after tax) **received** by each **quintil** (20% grouping ranked lowest to highest income earners) * past 25 yrs **share of income risen for highest** income quintile * but **trend towards rising ineq stabilsied** since GFC * **diff in avg incomes (before tax & welfare pyments)**
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**mean income** vs **median income**
mean * **avg lvl income** calculated by **dividing total income of group/no. income recipients** in group median * lvl incoem divides incoem recipients in group into **1/2** * 1 having incomes **above** median * 2 incomes **below** median **(middle income)**
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measuring income inequality using the Lorenz curve
graph of **income distribution**, plotting **cumulative ^ in pop** against **cumulative ^ in income** * **cumulative %** of **total income** received (**y**-axis) against cumulative % of income **recipients (x-axis)** * if income ditributed **evenly** across pop, curve **diagonal** line through **origin** **line of equality** * **further** curve **away from line,** **greater** deg income **ineq** in society
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measuring income inequality using the Gini coefficient
no. betw **0 (all incomes equal) & 1 (single HH receives all income)** that measures **extent** of income ineq in an eco, calculated by measuring **deg curve deviates from line of equality** * single statistic summarises distribution of income across pop * **ratio of area betw actual Lorenz curve & line of equality (A) & total area under line (A+B)** * smaller gini coeff, mroe even distr of inc
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measuring distribution of HH wealth in AUS
more complex than measuring income lvls * **dist welath more unequal than distr income** * top quntile earns 40.4% of total income, top quintil owns 63.5% total welath * bottom quintil earn 7.5% total income, <1% total wealth * **wealth ineq** remained **relatively stable** over time but **gini coeff** shows **improve**ment 1980s & 2000s, **worsen**ing from 2012
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what was a key influence on the lower Gini coeff in early 200s
positive impact of **compulsory super** introduced in 1990s * **build** **store of wealth** for ppl in **lower income quintiles** w/ **jobs**who often **dont have assets** eg. real estate
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increase in wealth inequality recent years reflects how wealth
accrues to **owners of capital** **during** periods of **growth & decline** * AUS' **house prices risen dramatically past 2 decades, ^ wealth of asset owners** but **harder for low & middle income HHs** to buy home * real estate prices in expensive areas mroe responsive to IT changes --> **very low IRs recent yrs widen**ing wealth inequality as **owners of expensive properties** see **value of assets ^ >** less valuable **real estate**
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how inequality welath can increase/decrease during downturns & upturns
**increase** * **strong demand** in some **sectors** in pandemic eg. **techm edical care** also highlighted how ppl w/ weatlh able to **capitalise** on **new opps** in changign eco conditions
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how each FOP contributes to HH income lvls (factors influencing distr of inc)
**wages from labour** * **main source of income** for **consumers** * **wage/salary** payments for labour when consuemrs **participate in LM** * includes **non wage** income eg. bonuses, fringe benefits, **employer contributions to super** aka **returns to labour** **rent from land** * many consumers **own land** that becomes source of income when rented eg. own investment property generates rental income **earnings from cpaital** * **returns from own**ership of capital are sig source of HH income * returns include earnings from **financial assets** eg. investment funds, **super** accs & bank **deposits**, ownership of **shares**/whole **companies** * bc **ownership highly concentrated** among msot **welathy HHs**, large share of these earnings goes to wealthiest HHs * **main** way ineq in distribution of welath **contributes to ineq in distr of inc** **profit from entrepreneurshup** * substantial no. aussies operate bus' (esp small) * if bus makes **profit**, income considered **return for entrepreneurial skill** **transfer payments** * paymetns from gvt to assist ppl w/ **basic costs of living** * sig prop HH income through **social welfare** aka /gvt benefits * **2 types: social assistance benefits** (Welfare payments) & **social insurance benefits** (eg. workers compensation) * income collected through **taxation & transferred from gvts to HHs** * **>1/3** total incoem tax collected used to pay u/e & sickness benefits, age & disability pensions, family alowances, etc
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sources of wealth in AUS
HH **net worth** used by ABS to **measure private sector wealth** * net worth is **extent** whcih **value** of **HH assets** eg houses & savings (things they **own) exceeds value of liabilities** (loans, things they **owe)** * most from owner occupied **property, super**, investment property (ranked)
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2 largest components of Hh wealth
**housing & super** **increased recent yrs** while **savings & ownership of bus assets declined** * more value held in owner-occupied **properties** than any other asset * combined w/ investment properties, **real estate** assets >1/2 % HH welath in AUS * **super funds** **2nd largest Hh** asset & **largest ifnancial** asset
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trends in distr of inc & wealth (check textbook)
* **recent decades** AUS experienced **modest ^** in overall lvls **inequality** * income distribution asymmetric, **relatively small no. HHs have relatively high incomes & large no. HHs relatively low incomes** * **wealth mroe unequally distributed** than income * hihgly unequaly distr of wealth & even greater **concentration** of wealth at 'top' compared w/ distr of income * **income** remain **highest** bet **35-54yo** main yrs of working life, **15-19 lowest** * **younger** brackets employed in **casual, PT jobs lower-paying** * **higher edu qualifications** eg. tertiary degrees enjoy income lvls much **higher than** w/ vocational training**/no qualifications beyong high school** * earnings **highest w/ postgraduate degree** & lowest w/o post-school qualification * **rapid ^ in housing prices** 2000s **sig widened ineq** in ditr of welath by age
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gender & occupation trends in distr income & wealth
* **FT female** workers **earn less** than males * **little change in wage relativities** since ABS began publishing wages data for owmen over 3 decades ago * 1985 women in FT jobs earning 82% male earnings * part of diff in earnings explained by **historic human capital** factors (past **attitudes** concerning **role of women** in society, females **fewer opp**s to acquire **edu, skills, qualifications**) * after accounting diff in jobs & work hrs, **avg weekly earnings females lower ** * current **gender pay gap** influenced by **occupations w/ high prop female employees paid lower wages,** women have greater **home caring responsibilities,** fewer senior roles for employees who choose work **PT** (as **higher prop** of women do) * experience **in&Direct discrimination**, **avg male & female earnings working FT in same industries** * on avg, female emps earn less than male **regardless same qualifications & experience** * gender pay gap **not exclusive to male-dominated industries, greatest** income discrepancies occur in industries where **females account greater prop of workforce** **(health, social services**)
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1 contributor to gender inequality in welath distribution
way **women accumulate lower super** **balances** **during working lvies** * super balances for women who worked **FT** through careers 17% **lower avg** than men * including **casual & PT**, gender gap 33% reflects **higher prop women** working these positions --> women paid **lower wages**, take **longer career breaks** for caring responsibilities, when take (**parental leave employers not required make super payments**)
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ethnic background trends in distr income & wealth (check textbook for these ones)
* almost 1/2 aussies born overseas (1st gen aussie)/have 1/+ parent born overseas (2nd gen aussie) * **~60% migrants come from countries not English-speaking** nations * **ST, migrants ** (esp from **non english** speaking countries) have **slightly higher rates u/e** * **LT**, u/e **same** lvl for**aus born & overseas** * **migrants** from **english speaking** countries **likelier** to be **highly skilled & professionaly qualified --> lower** rate **u/e** comapred to recent migrants * those who came to AUS under **skilled migration program** have **LFPR 85%, higher** than PR for pop 67% * little data on relation betw migrant status & HH income & Wealth * compared w/ native-born, aussies w/ **migrant bg** have **higher incomes** if from **english-speaking countries** & lower incomes if not, **sig less wealth**, higher **underemp**loyment --> **barriers to employment in higher paid jobs for non english speaking migrants due to english proficiency**
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family structure trends in distr income & wealth
**recent demographci changes** in AUS eg. growth of **female particiaption in workforce, decreasing fmaily size**s (**couples raise fewer children avg) , ^ prop** of ppl **living alone** * **large disparity in family income & Wealth lvls** * **1 person HHs & single parents** HHs receive **weekly income lvls sig below median** * **small % single parent w/ children under 4 employed FT** * single parents work **longer hrs as hcildren older, work fewer hrs than couples --> lower incomes**, almost 1/2 bottom incoem quintile --> **lower rates FT employment bc caring responsibilities** * couples **w/o dependent children highest income** family structure * couples w/ **dependent children** have much **lower prop HH members in paid work, lower avg incomes** than coupels w/o dependents * **couples w/ children more likley to be older** so adults in HH likelier have **higher ind incomes even if share among HH members** * major reason for low incoem lvls single person HHs is bc **large no. aged ppl no longer in paid workforce** & **rely on gvt benefits** as **primary income source** * **^ transfer payment rates for older Aussies & low-income families fell**
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the distribution of wealth by family type shows similar/diff pattern to income distribution...
**similar** pattern to income distribution, with **couple-HHs** enjoying **sig higher wealth** lvls **compared w/ single parents** & person **HHs** * main diff is **single person HHs much mroe wealth than single parents** **despite similar weekly incomes** --> influence of **'income-poor & asset-rich' elderly** ppl in single person category who **paid off mortgages & live off gvt pensions**/other retirement incomes
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georgraphy trends in distr income & wealth
**regional factors influence demographic change** (ppl in disadv areas 'take flight' to prosperous areas) & major issue **driving** direction og gvt policies for **inc ineq.** * **avg income** lvls **differ among states** but **ineq** betw ppl in **major cities & regional areas, between better-off & less well-off suburbs in major cities more sig** * **ACT & NT** enjoy **highest HH incomes** & **Tasmania** suffer **lowest** income * **WA &NT** (regions w/ **largest shares of eco activity in mining)** experienced **lasting benefit from mining boom** & have **incomes above majority** of eastern states * age role in interstate inequalirt where **areas w/ younger pops** eg. **ACT & NSW** have **higher incomes** than states w/ older populations eg. Tasmania * **inequ iwthin states esp betw major cities** & rest of state * **1/2 NSW's most disadv regions concentrated in 6% of state,** geographical ineq barely changed since 2007 * NSW pop living in capital city area **earn more than those rural areas** * **even larger diffs for net wealth,** big diff betw **property values** in cirites compared to **regional areas**, Sydney HHs have property **assets, worth more than double avg home values for HHs in rest of NSW** (remember the limitations for interstate too)
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important limitation on **geographic data on distr inc & welath**
**doesnt account differences in cost of living** * Sydney pay highest weekly rents in country, but weekly median rent for Pertt property is 2/3 * **incomes may be similar in both cities but actual living costs lower in smaller city --> higher LS** ( remember w/ **interstate comparisons, cost of living differences** mean **raw income** lvls can **exaggerate true extent of incoem ineq** **betw geographic areas.**)
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relationship between income & wealth (box)
although **distr welath in AUS way more unequal than distr income**, **closely related** * inds w/ **high incomes** alos enjoy **greater lvls wealth compared to low income earners** * HH income can be used to **purchase g&S, service debts & acquire assets** * **more income** a HH has** left after covering living expenses, greater capacity to build wealth** * **mroe wealth** HH has, **greater capcity to generate income** * HH can generate higher income in form **rent from property investment/dividends from a share** portfolio but these assets may **not** be **affordable until income lvls reach certain threshold** * **^ in income ineq can result in widening wealth ineq, & ^ wealth ineq can result in ^ income ineq -->** explains **gap betw incomes** of AUS' **youngest & oldest** age groups grown since 2008
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costs & benefits of inequality
ineq has some **limited eco benefits but sig social costs** * some argue **ineq natural consequence of free market functioning effectively** since each ind **receives share of income according to** their **marginal productivity** & **create and strengthen** ind **incentives to ^ share of output** (ppl more encourages to **work harder to gain larger** **share** in **distr of income**) * but some argue **system** of **free market capitalism divides society into diff classes** (**wrking, middle, upper**) tends to **entrench high lvls ineq & poverty**
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inequality reduces overall utility (eco costs of inequality)
**inequality** in **distr income reduces total utility** in society bc ppl on **higher incomes gain less utility from ^ in income** than ppl on lower incomes * principle of **diminishing marginal utility: as more of good consumed, provide progressively less utility to consumer** * **extra $1** of incoem **worth more to lower income earner** than higher income earner * more equitable distr of income --> ^ total utility (create **greater overall lvl satisfaction in society)** * **diff to measure accurately**
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inequality can reduce eco growth (eco costs of inequality)
**low income earners spend higher prop of income** than hgiher income earners since **cost of basic essentials (housing, food**) take higher prop of their income * lower income earners have **higher MPC** bc **spend more** of each **additional dollar earned** than higher income earners --> an eco w/ **high** lvl **income inequality, relatively lower lvl consumption & higher lvl savings --> lower eco activity, employment, investment, LS** * rise in income ineq in OECD ecos 1985 - 2005 reduced cumulative growth from 1990 to 2010 bc as **ineq increases, lower income HHs less able access edu opps** * w/ **lower educational attainment**, inds **less likely to stay employed** & eco will experience costs of **hiehr u/e & lower participation rates**
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inequality creates **conspicuous consumption** (eco costs of inequality)
* ineq in distr of income creates a '**leisure class' of higher income earners** in society * leisure class puts l**arge prop of their money towards CC**, consume **expensive g&s --> culture** where ind **worth depends on access to lifestyle**
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inequality creates poverty & social problems (eco costs of inequality)
ineq inc distr causes **relative poverty --> develop underclass of low income earners w/ limited access to edu opps**, suffer **health** & ther disadv --> **reduce LFP** & create **self-perpetuating cycle of disadvantage**
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inequality increases the cost of welfare support (eco costs of inequality)
gvts provide **safety net income support** for ppl **out of work, aged, disabled** * higher lvls inequality place **^d demands on gvt revenue** bc more ppl **low incomes** **require gvt assistance** * **entrenched disadv** imposes **proportionately greater costs on gvts** as inds **dont participate in workforce** & **rely heavily on gvt services**
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social class divisions (Social costs of inequality)
distr of incoem & ewalth creates **class distinctions** in modern ecos eg. **upper, middle, working** class * class divisions --> tensions betw ppl & **betw diff regions, higher lvls crime & social disorder** * **wage disputes betw workers & employers** where workers try improve income lvl commonc cause of **dispute** * divisions may lead to **social & eco instability** esp in **developing ecos** where gains of rising **prosperity** often **unequally distributed**
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poverty (Social costs of inequality)
**aus** doesnt suffer from high lvl of absolute poverty but experiences **sig** lvls of **relative poverty** * **3%** of aus population **persistently in poverty --> traps families** into **vicious cycle of low incomes & limited eco opps** * high poverty lvls associated w/ ^ lvls of **crime, suicide, disease, reduced life expectancy**
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eco benefits of inequality
inc inequality can **^ productive capacity of resources --> ^ real GDP per capita** * eco benefits mainly derived from **incentive effects** of inequality
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inequality encourages the LF to ^ edu & skill lvls (eco benefits of inequality)
* higher qualifications & skills reap **higher income rewards --> new entrants & existing participants in LF** encouraged to **imrpvoe edu & skill lvls** (quality of LF) * **assumes children** growing up in **poor HHs** still ahve opp to **access good edu, perform well** at school, **afford higher** edu * if children in **low income groups dont have opp** gaining good educational standards, eco likely suffer **LT** from **lower lvls productivity growth**
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inequality encourages the LF to work longer & harder (eco benefits of inequality)
* potential to earn **higher incomes** produces **incentive** for workers to work longer hrs/**overtime** --> enhance **EG** * **only**willing to **give up leisure** to **work longer hrs if feel extra income more valuable** than leisure time * if **^d output rewarded** through higher pay, encoaurges improved **labour productivity**
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inequality makes the LF more mobile (eco benefits of inequality)
**higher incomes incentive** to encourage labour to **move where most needed** * more **mobile LF --> more eff allocation of resources** & higher rate **EG** * past decade imp as high earnings in mining jobs attracted workers to remove parts of AUS eg. NT
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inequality encourages entrepreneurs to accept risks more readily (eco benefits of inequality)
prospect of considerable incoem rewards for entrepreneurs encourages risk taking with new investment & innovation * if entrepreneurs received no extra reward for risk taking **fewer entrepreneurs & bus**inesses, lower rate **eco grwoth, weaker investment**, less **innovation,** fewer**jobs**, **reduced productive capacity** in eco
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inequality creates potential for higher savings & capital formation (eco benefits of inequality)
strong relationship betw income & saving lvls * **higher income** earned --> **greater prop of income saved** vice versa * greater income ineq should encourage ^ savings in eco bc **more income earners** * ^ savings --. **reduce** AUS **reliance** on **foreign capital** by providng **domestic funds for investment**
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social benefits of inequality
diff to identify * potential eco benefits eg. **higher** lvls of **saving/productivity** maybe **bnefit all members** of **society** * social benefits from eco system **encouraging hard work, risk taking** & **social mobility** but income ineq has few social benefits overall since **system** (that **determines distr of income & welath) doesnt give everyoen same lvl opp** to pursue their **income & wealth** goals * given the problem of **ineq of opp**ortunity, social benefits associated w/ inequality are very **limited**
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**inequality of opp** exists in AUS due to several factors: (social benefits of inequality)
**existing ineq in distr of income & wealth perpetuates ineq of opp** * HI earners have better **access to edu opps**, likely to gain admission to **uni courses** & take **higher paid occupations** ppl who **acquire welath through inheritance greater opp to build** wealth through **investments > start with no wealth** ppl may not have access to same **networks of ppl for new opps** * **new migrants** likley find **diff to access social & bus networks** * this ineq makes **diff to overcome** bc **many barriers to opps are informal** (bus ppl prefer do bus w/ ppl **they know, similar social bg**) exclude
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gvt policies & inequality
**direct & indirect** influences * **fiscal & LM policies** have **most direct impact** by **changing lvls gvt benefits, tax**ation, **wages, salaries** * **side effects** of policies for **other** purposes eg. **mciroeco** polciy also affect ineq * **recent decades** gvts adopted strat **reducing intervention in markets** but **take** additional **targeted policy** steps to **reduce eco & social disadvs** eg. personalised assistance w/ training & finding work * during **heightened instability, major policy intervenions** to **prevent** severe eco **downturn** that could **sharply ^ ineq** (covid)
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macroeco management & job grwoth (gvt policies & inequality)
* **emp**loyment **main source of income** for **HH**s --> **u/e main reason for low incomes & poverty** * periods of **u/e & underemp** contribute sig to **^ gap betw high & low income earners** (AUS) * **u/e rely** on **gvt benefits --> siig below avg incomes** earned by **employed** * lower u/e rates --> reduce gap betw rich & poor * **inequ higher** when ppl of**working age drop out of LF/remain u/e for LT**, LT u/e very **diff to find emp**loyment * **^ workforce participation** to **keep** emps in **WF** & support **re-entry of LT u/e** into work can help **reduce lvl income ineq LT**
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changes in the LM (gvt policies & inequality)
**changes in pattern of emp**loyoment --> many **jobs created recent yrs casual/PT > FT** ('secondary' jobs not worker's main source of income) * decline of FT work --> ^ **underemp**, often hold casual, temporary jobs **low paid** in 'gig eco' w/ **work hrs changign weekly --> lower incomes,** suffer greater **fluctuations in income** lvls bc when eco **downturn, 1st** measure bus take is **reduce casual & overtime hrs** **decentralisation of LM** **widened ineq betw wage earners** * under **EAs,** workers w/ **greater skills & bargaining power** achieved **higher avg wage ^s > less skilled** workers who **rely on industrial awards for wage rises** * jobs became more highyl skilled & specialised --> gap betw pay for high skilled & unskilled work widened AUS'** industrial relations regulated FWC** influence ineq through **annual decision** on adjustments to **min wages** in AUS * establishes min wage lvls for millions emps **covered by awards** & agreements, & **indirectly influences other wage outcomes** * since 1st min wage decision 2010, FWC willing to raise min wages to **assist low paid workers** when confident ^s affordable
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gvt policies to reduce inequality (gvt policies & inequality)!! (textbook this)
changes in gvt **taxation, transfer payments, etc** **most direct** **impact** on ineq in AUS * overall **gvt intervention reduces income ineq by taxing wealthiest groups heavier** & **redistributing income** to **lower socio-eco groups** * final income of HHs more evenyl distributed than income from private sources * w/o taxes/gvt benefits, incoem for highest qunitile >12x avg for lowest quintile (receive most age pensions & disability support) * gvt policies --> **avg annual disposable income received by lowest quintile** of income earners **almost doubled** so highest income earners take **lil over 5x lwoest quintile**
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gvt largest transfer payments
* largest transfer payments age pension, disability support pension, u/e & other working age benefits, carers payment
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as income rises, so does lvl taxaction. why?
lvl **tax**ation is**diff betw gross income & disposable** income * bc AUS has **progressive incoem tax system** **w/ higher marginal tax rates for higher income** lvls * **lowest** 40% **income earners** had **prop**ortionately **larger tax burden bc indirect consumption taxes not related to income offset by gvt benefits** assist lowest 3 income quintiles * gvt payments ot **u/ed, low incoem** earners, **elderly** & provision of gvt services eg. **health, edu**, housing primary mechanism reducing disadv * family payments increase incoem for low & middle income families
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how has **compulsory superanuation** influenced **distribution of wealth** in AUS
since introduction 1992 * **employers required contribute min 10%** of **amp's wages to superfund cant access until retirement** * since mid 1980s, prop of emps covered by super rose like 52% * while **super assets boost wealth of all wealth quintiles, esp imp for low-middle income earners** (one of **few sig** financial **assets)** * low income earners disproportionately affected by covid recession --> could ^ ineq in LT as lower income earners lost benefit of savings * **beneficial** effects of compulsory super for **reducign ineq expected grow further** **if** compulsory super contributions **^ to 12%** of employee incomes by 2025 (longstanding policy commitment of successive gvts) CHECK TEXTBOOK
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the indirect impact of gvt policies (gvt policies & inequality)
impact og gvt policeis to **create more equitable distr of income** can be **outweighed** by **consequences of other gvt policies** that **widen gap** betw **higher & lower inc** earners * using **MP** to **slow** rate of **eco grwoth: IRs ^ --> transfers wealth from low to high income earners bc LI earners are borrowers & must pay higher IRs** but **HI earners** often have **net savings** so **high IRs ^ their income** -> unintended side effect used for other purposes eg. maintain low inflatio nrate **microeco reform** sometimes r**equire eco restructing** --> create **u/e ST/closure** of some **industries** * **privatisation** of formerly **GBEs** often followed by **price ^s & 'downsizing'** of **workforce** to **improve profitability for SHs** * to improve **efficiency & ^ ROIs** to **owners of assets --> benefits flow to wealthier asset owners** while **costs felt most by lower income earners** * challenge to implement in way doesnt ^ inequality * often substantial adjustment packages to compensate for hardship lower income groups experience from reforms ensure not disadved * targeted transitional support to groups directly affected by reforms minimise hardships associated w/ structural change
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gvt policies mixed impact on distr of income & wealth
**progressive income tax, swp**, gvt services, **compulsory super reduced inequality** **microeco & LM reforms** contribute to **rising inequality**
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**natural environmeny**
represents the totality of physical enviro which human society lives * includes land, water, climate, plant & animal life * gvts address impact of eco activity on enviro to improve QOL & preserve natural enviro for future gens
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enviro sustainability
protecting & enhancing natural enviro * protecting **quality of air, water, soil,** * **preserving natural enviros & biodiversity**, * ensure **sustainable use of non & renewable resources**, * **minimise neg enviro consequences of eco activity**
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AUS key enviro sustainability challenges
* reducing **GH gas emissions --> climate change** * ensure adequate **supplies of water for HHs, farmers, bus'** * preserving **health of forests, ecosystems, waterways** **farming, mining, industry --> land degradation, deplete NON-renewable resources, EXTINTion of plant & animal species, pollution of water systems**
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while prioritising enviro concerns may involve _ costs in short/long term, sustainable eco grwoth in short/long term depends on a healthy environmetn
economic costs in short term, grwoth in long term * protect enviro --> support eco grwoth in **M-LT**
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**environmetnal economics**
recent decades enviro factors incorporated into eco theory through EEs * emphasises need to **pursue sustainable lvl growth**, accounting **effects eco activity** has **on enviro** * unless hidden costs of eco grwoth accounted, fast growth --> **rapid depletion of resources, polluted enviro, reduce QOL**
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ecologically sustainable development
**conserving** & enhancing the community's **resources so ecological processes & QOL maintained** * **lvl** of **eco activity compatible w/ LT preservation** of enviro **than max lvlgrowth possible in ST** * principle of fairness betw generations /**intergenerational equity** describes **resources shouldnt be used in way that'll limit QOL of future gens** (1 of major principels)
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sustainable eco grwoth (chapter 7 too)
grwoth should be **maintained** at lvl **so low u/e** & **not so high** that causes **excessive inflation/external imbalance** * **overuse**/exploiting **natural resource**s for **ST grwoth** can **deplete** resources & **permanently damage enviro --> reduce productivity** of affected **sectors** * consumption depleting eco's natural resources --> **reduce future potential output** in **LT** (esp **primary industries** **rely natural resources as inputs in PP --> decrease eco's PPF**)
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what is the LT purpose of achieving both eco grwoth & enviro protection?
improve **QOL** * **satisfying more material wants diminished if** at **expense of damage** to natural **enviro, depletion** of natural **resources/harm**ful for human **health** * harming enviro reduces **QOL for future pops** by depleting natural resources --> **future EG**
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impact of ecologically unsustainable development
* **deforstation & soil erosion --> impossible to sustain food supply for local populations**
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5 key principles of ecologically sustainable development
1. **integrating eco & enviro goals in policies** & activities 2. enuring **enviro assets appropriately valued** 3. managing **enviro risks** w/ caution 4. ensuring **fair**ness **allocating costs & assets within & betw generations** 5. accounting **global effects of enviro issues**
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AUS' National Strat for Ecologcially Sustainable Development NSESD
developed 1992 core objectives of strat: * **enhance individual & community wellbeing & welfare** by following a path of eco developmetn that safeguards welfare of future generations * **provide for equity within & betw generations** * **protect biological diversity** and **maintain** essential **Ecological processes & life-support systems**
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price mechanism
in modern **market eco,** key **determinant** in decisiosn abt **what goods produced**, what **quantity, price** which sold * **interaction** of **market forces** of **supply & demand** to reach an **equilibrium price & quanttiy** of production --> **market outcomes** reflect balance betw **consumer preferences (demand) & costs of producing output (supply)** * when consuemrs demand goods, producers make available if they can receive a price that at least covers costs * as demand ^, production ^
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limitation of price mechanism
but **doesnt** effectively **account LT effect** of **eco activity on enviro** * bc **producers enjoy PRIVATE benefit** from the activity that **depletes resources/pollutes enviro** but **dont directly face SOCIAL costs** of **eco activity** * **market price paid by consumers dont reflect social costs**
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market failure
occurs bc **price mechanism only accoutns private benefits & costs of production to consumers & producers** * **doesnt account wider social costs & benefits --> passed on to otehr members of society (externalities)**
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negative externality
* **unintended neg outcome** of an **eco activity** whose **cost isnt reflected** in operation of **price mechanism** * **adverse spillover effects** on the enviro from eco activity * **demerit goods** g&S have neg externalities
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one of main eco problems lie behind market's failure to account for enviro impacts in production
* eco system based on private property ownership w/ no general property rights associated w/ enviro resources eg. oceans * **price mech doesnt determine price/value** for these **resources, freely used w/o regarding depletion --> enviro** **resources** destroyed **overuse** * this market failure is the **tragedy of the commons**
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road transport (negative externalityz)
eg. company **reduces freight costs by transporting goods by road >rail** * use **trucks --> damage roads** in area + **noise & air pollution --> damage cars** bc **pot holes, loose stones, ^ risk accidents, ^ noise pollution** of trucks, **respiratory** problems from **worsened air quality** * **costs not to company (saving money)** * generates **neg externality** bc **society bears cost of raod damage, noise, air pollution**
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the price mec plays a limited role in protecting enviro by
**limited sales of depleted resources** **have a price** * when **enviro resources scarce --> cost of natural resources ^ --> reduce no. resouces consumed** * if many trees cut to sell on market --> **mroe expensive to supply --> remaining supply** in remote location of **lower quantity --> prices rse & reduce no. ppl** who can **afford** --> induce **producers & buyers** to look for & **develop alt inputs to production** * but this approach **only protects resources sold in markets (minerals, timber)** * **price mech no role allocating enviro resources** that can be **used for free** eg. atmosphere to dispose gas generated in PP * **remaining resources** may **not** be **protected if price ^s too late** by **too little**
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positive externalities
**unintended positive outcome of an eco activity** whose **value not reflected in** operation of **price mechanism** * **beneficial spillover effects** from eco activity * **production doesnt usually** generate positive enviro outcomes but eg. **^ train service use --> reduce commute times for passengers, reduce road congetion & car pollution** * g&s w/ positive exts are **merit goods** * **benefits of production not enjoyed by ind consumer**
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social cost
**supply curve** for **whole society** lies **above normal** supply suve * **vertical dist** betw 2 supply curves is **size of externality** * if **neg ext from producer/cosumer, price rise reflect**ing **higher cost of production & output fall bc g&S w/ neg ext overproduced** * add social benefits **social benefit demand curve above normal demand curve** * vertical dist betw 2 demand curves size of pos ext * **market only account private costs & benefits of production** * if **pos ext enjoyed by producer/consumer, price rise (higher value of good's production)** * **output rise (g&S w/ pos exts under-produced)**
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2 characteristics of public goods
1. **non excludable** * **once provided, producer cant exclude consumers from enjoying benefit** of goods **even if not prepared to pay** * national defence, street lights, clean environment 2. **non-rival** * **consuming** good by **ind** consumer **doesnt reduce quantity** of good **available for other** consumers
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since publci goods non excludable & non rival, they create the opp for __ __ behaviour
free rider : **groups/inds** who **benefit** from g/s **w/o contributing to cost of supplying** g/s * **consumers/bus** benefit w/o having to pay for its **production/maintenance** * eg. fishing company benefits from **clean oceans w/o paying cost** of **cleaning up ocean pollution** * **private markets dont/under provide** public goods since **private firms unable charge consuemrs** for enjoying **benefits --> price mech cant produce equilibrium** outcome properly **reflecting forces of supply & demand** & **setting price doesnt limit consumption of public goods** * **incentive** for free riders **undermines** attempt by **private sector** to **clean enviroment/protect** from **overuse/depletion --> provided by GVT**
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**public-sector goods**
g&s provided by gvt (**or its agencies**) * not all are publci goods * **train** services provided by gvt but **excludable (pay to ride**) * not all public goods provided by gvt
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why achieving enviro sustainability is so difficult
* ppl **disagree** on how to **calculate** the **enviro costs of eco activity** * which policies most effective solving enviro problems * **industries resist pressure** to **change practices/pay full costs** of **enviro impact** * gvts msut decide whose evidence most convincing, how enviro & eco goals balanced
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(major enviro issues w/ eco consequences gvts must confront in eco policymaking) **preserving natural environments**
in **LT, eco cant keep growing if enviro degraded** * enviro damage affects **human health** (higher lvls **air & water pollution, restricts availability of resources**) * awareness developed slow in AUS & industrialised world * **AUS poor record preserving biodiversity despite one of 6 biodiverse nations** measures **preserving enviro** try **avoid social & eco problems** when enviro **not actively preserved** eg: * **restrict development in enviro-sensitive** areas (mining, national parks) * **protect native plant & animal species from extinction** * **controlling emissions of waste** products * requiring new plantation in areas where logging occurred
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what 3 sig problems do gvts often face when trying to preserve natural enviro?
1. **ST, enviro policies can reduce eco grwoth** through **interventions in price mechanism** may cause **higher prices/reduce supply** * eg. agri producers **oppose reduction in water** allocations for **irrigation** bc **lower agri output in ST** 2. **industries face higher costs if have to comply w/ rigorous enviro standards** * in **highly competitive global eco**, enviro standards can make us less competitive compared w/ **other c's / weaker enviro safeguards** * AUS may **miss** out **opps** lifting **EG & exports** * **farming, mining, construction most affected industries** & may **lobby gvts** to rpevent strict enviro protection policies 3. **cost of repairing damage to enviro** often **borne by** **taxpayers than those who caused** eco damage * eg. **gvt expenditure** on **grants** to community groups for **projects to manage erosion & protect habitats of threatened specieis** * gvt may **pass costs on to industry** eg. recycle bottles for 10c reform reduce littering, ^ recycling w/ scheme costs borne by beverage producers * gvt can improve **incentives for industries** to better preserve enviro
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pollution (major enviro issues w/ eco consequences gvts must confront in eco policymaking)
**natural enviro degraded** some way eg. harmful **chemical substances, noise**, **rubbish** * affects **atmosphere, water resources, land** * **all sectors** (manuf, agr, **HHs) contribute** * problem since many ppl lived clsoe proximity in towns & cities * (**Waste & pollution generated by production, pop grwoth, high concentrations of ppl in cities)** * **mining & manuf processes create toxic waste & pollution** * problem for **global eco,** national gvts, international institutions, eg. high lvls industrial pollutants eg. toxic metals & plastics found in aquatic life across oceans
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renewable resources vs non renewable resources
**renewable** * can **naturally regenerate/replace themselves** in **relatively short PIT** * **may be depleted** to pt where become **non renewable (cant regenerate) & lost forever** eg. overfishing species --> cant reproduce, extnct **non-renewable resources** * **natural resources** in **limited supply** bc can **only** be **replenished** over a **long PIT/cannot** be replenished at all * **fossil fuels (petroleum, coal), minerals (copper, iron ore)**
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gvt policies to reduce pollution within individual countries
*laws banning environmentally damaging production techniques * quotas to restrict emission of harmful pollutants * subsidies to encourage enviro friendly practices * taxes to discourage some forms eco activity
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climate change (major enviro issues w/ eco consequences gvts must confront in eco policymaking)
aka **global warming** related to **GG emissions (CO2**,, CH4), methane * **produce most profound threats** to global enviro * bc **worldwide reliance on fossil fuels, close link** betw **^ eco grwoth & higher carbon emissions** in most ecos * as **SOL improve, greater demands on limited natural resources to satisfy world's energy & food supply needs** * AUS vulnerable bc importance of **fossil fuels to energy production & exports** & **proximity to** other **countries** afected by ^** temps & rising sea lvls (indonesia, bangladesh)**
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biggest sources of GG emissions
1. **electricity & heat production** 2. **agri,** forestry, other land use 3. industry 4. **transport**
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# stats IPCC reports on climate change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change * msot authoritative source of info on climate science w/ many world's leading scientists * estimate next 20 yrs global temps reach/exceed 1.5 degrees of warming --> ^ heat waves, longer warm seasons, shorter cold seasons * 2 degrees --> heat extremes reach critical tolerance thresholds for agri & healthy more often * even w/ sustained reductions in CO2, estimated take 20-30 yrs for global temps to stabilise
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why do many nations inc AUS STRUGGle to implement effective policy resposnes to climate change despite having a scientific basis for targeting reductions in CO2 emissions?
**climate change** is a **global problem** * addressing CC by **reducing co2 reduces eco grwoth esp ST** * **nations reluctant** to **reduce eco potential** esp if **unsure other nations** **do same**
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depletion of natural resources (major enviro issues w/ eco consequences gvts must confront in eco policymaking)
* both **enviro & eco problem** * **w/o intervention**, **market failure** & **allow** important **resources overused** * **greatest impact on future gens** * **sustainable resource management** to **ensure present generation odesnt overconsume stocks** of **renewable resources** & **minimises depletion of non R resources**, ensure **new tech makes alt resource use possible**
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how do economists determine what lvl resource use is sustainable?
estimate optimal rate for use of resources over time * calculate for both R & NR resources
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how to establish optimal rate of use for renewable resources
arriving at a **threshold exploitation lvl** alows **resources to regenerate so no LT decline** in the resources * critical water shortages in AUS esp relying on Murray-Darling River System reflect LT overuse of renewable resource of fresh water
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how to calculate an optimal rate of use for NR resources
determine a **rate of decline acceptable** for **present & future generations** * **eliminate overuse & waste** * take action to **recycle/curb consumption of resources**
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what are the 2 main challenges economists face when calculating the optimal rate of resource use for a NR resource?
1. **hard** for **present gens to predict needs of future gens** 2. hard to **assess existing stock** of a mineral/other **resource** * may be **limited/conflicting evidence abt quantity of resource available**
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gvt policies & enviro sustainability
* gvt policies can influence enviro management by **discouraging enviro harmful activities** & **incentivising firms & inds** to **act in envrio responsible manner** enviro issues still **secondary** role to other **eco objs** eg. eco grwoth despite recent decades increasingly imp issue for policymakers worldwide * **benefits of LT enviro policies less apparent than costs of improving enviro protection** * enviro problems take **years/decades to emerge, msot solutions** also need **years to have impact --> gvts delay acting** on enviro problems bc **less urgent** than **other issues & results policy actions often less immediate**
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what is the most extreme action a gvt can take to achieve improved enviro management?
**ban production/sale of a g/s** * banning product **eliminates externalities** associated w/ its **production** & use to the extent that its use can be stopped * gvt bans can impose **severe costs on firms & inds** esp those whose **employment depends on its production** * gvts only consider option if product causing **severe enviro/social damage/suitable substitute product exists** * can also **prevent consumption/activities harm enviro** eg. China gvt banned imports of mixed recycled materials from other c's flow on effects for AUS recycling industry (AUS recycled waste exports to C) --> prices in recycled waste markets dropped significantly --> impact viability of AUS recycling industry --> oversupply of recyclable waste, dump into landfill
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what is another measure gvts can take to reduce consumption of a g/s (for enviro reasons)
**impose a tax on its production/use** * require **firm/ind** that **causes externality to pay for some/all its costs** * eg. fed gvt imposes tax/excise on fuels eg. petrol --> recalculated very 6 months in line w/ ^s in CPI, tax on petrol forces owners of vehicles to pay some costs of air pollution
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(2) how can gvts intro policies to encourage firms & inds to use more enviro-friendly g&S? (gvt policies for enviro sustainability)
* in every major AUS city, gvts provide **Subsidised** **public transport services** eg. bus, train to offer inds **alt to motor vechiles** also **gvt funding** to accelerate **intro**duction of **new techs w/ envir obenefits** but **hgih establishment costs** eg. the Clean Energy Innovation Fund
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however, for public goods, gvt subsidies can lead to _ of resources. what will the gvt do to resolve this?
**underprovision of resources** * gvt may need to **provide services itself** also seek to **Monitor & measure** **changes in enviro over time** eg. fed gvt publishes 'State of the Enviro' report documents changes in AUS enviro over 5 yr period (atmosphere, biodiversity, marine enviro, land,) * ABS records the AUS Enviro-Eco Accs measures AUS' stock of enviro assets as addition to typucal measure of assets in eco * availability of better quality data provides gvts better **info** abt **trade-offs in decision making** to **manage eco & enviro outcomes esp adverse consequences**
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overall, gvts have shifted away from __ _ & directly ___ __ to using market mechanisms eg. __ & __ (for enviro sustainability)
away from outright bans & providing public goods, eg taxes & subsidies * but exceptions eg. expansion of AUS' renewable energy Snowy Hydro Scheme jointly owned by Commonewealth, NSW, Vic gvts