topic 3 eco issues Flashcards
(269 cards)
eco growth
^ in volume of g&s eco produces/real GDP over PIT
- measured by annual rate of change in real GDP (%^ in value of g&s produced in an eco over PIT usually 1 yr adjusted for inflation rate aka GDP at constant prices)
- real GDP: nominal GDP x (previous CPI/CPI)
- EG/rate ^ real GDP: (current GDP-previous GDP)/previous GDP x100
- (aso in ch3) quantitative –> measure ^GDP, income, emp, LS
- by ^AD/AS (usually both)
- ^AS expands eco’s productive capacity by 1. ^use resources (quantity) eg. unutilised land, LF^, adopt new tech & 2. ^productive use existing resources (quality) eg. capital ^productivity land & labour, edu & training programs ^ labour, capital productivity
- ^AS –> outward shift eco’s PPF (when producting at capacity, EG only if mroe resources available/tech adv/efficient use existing resources) –> current & future LS ^
limitation of using EG/output to measure LS
GDP is gross measure & doesnt account what’s being produced/depreciation of c’s existing capital stock & consumer goods
3 diff time periods used to measure AUS’ rate eco growth
-
quarterly eco growth
* every 3 months by ABS
* eg. March quarter is % increase in GDP since previous December quarter (final 3 months of 2021) -
year-on-year growth
* less volatile measure
* measure % change in GDP between 1 quarter & corresponding quarter of previous year -
annual eco grwoth
* calculated using GDP statistics for whole financial year 1 July - 30 June
* when June quarter national accs released (usualyl early Sep), annual growth calcualated s % increase in GDP since last financial year
why are there a variety of measures of eco grwoth
eco policymakers use growth statistics, each measure useful for diff ones purposes
- RBA needs to know what lvl eco activity in coming 12-18 months to forecast inflation trends & determine appropriate changes in the cash rate, look at most up to date indicators of EG
- Productivity Commission interested in hwo structural policies affect eco growth in LT even over decades (LT growth trends, not volatile quarterly growth stats heavily influenced by ST factors)
aggregate demand
total lvl expenditure in an eco over given PIT
- consumption,+ investment, +gvt spending,+ net export spending (export spending - import spending)
- total demand for g&S within eco
aggregate supply (Y)
total lvl income in eco over given PIT (period) (national income since all production generates income for owners of FOP)
- part of national income collected by gvt through taxation, rest consumption/saved
- consumer spending by HHs + saving by HHs + taxation by gvt
- total productive capacity of an eco, potentia output when all FOP fully utilised
when the economy is in equilibrium/equilibrium income
- will tend to be stable hwen lvl output AD & AS (national income) equal (lvl income in eco with no tendency to change bc eco operates below productive capacity if low demand for output, total expenditure)
- S + T + M = I + G + X (leakages = injections)
- changes in leakages & injections influence lvl eco activity
- injections > leakages eco will grow
- leakages > injections (eco growth decrease, may contract)
how to achieve EG with diff AS & AD lvls
- if eco operating below productive capacity, ^ AD promote EG by encouraging firms to ^output
- if operating close to productive capcity, EG only by ^ AS, needs ^ quantity &/quality of productive resources
- when AD insufficient to generate full employment of productive resources, macroeco policies to stimulate growth S-MT by boosting demand
- eco approaching full emp (most FOP utilised & producing lvl close to full potential), sustain growth LT need microeco policies (^ efficiency of resource use) to address structural issues on supply side that may limit future growth
influences on consumption (influences consumption & saving)
consumption by HHs ~55-60% expenditure/AD in eco
- anything boosts consumption –> boost expenditure (demand) –>** eco activity (income/output/AS**)
- most important factor influencing consumption is income (market eco)
- higher incomes consumer more, consumer more as income rises (but consumption drives output)
- how consumption influence eco activity (& income), look what influences consumption for a given lvl of income (all factors other than income)
-
prop total income spent on consimption APC AND PROP TOTAL INCOME SAVED APS
( most HH consumption, gvt spending, bus investment in order)
3 greatest influences on APC (thus lvl consumption at given lvl income)
- consumer expectations (confidence)
- expectations abt eco prospects (ind & general), future price ^ & availability goods influence decisions to spend/save income
- expect rise incomes/inflation/anticipate future shortage goods –> ^ spend & save less ST
- lvl IRs
- discourage inds from spending money (cost borrowing money higher) & encouraged save (return on savings deposited higher)
- but high lvls HH debt can reduce effectiveness of IR cuts in promoting consumption over time (AUS)
- rising property prices ^ consumption of existing property owners bc more confident own financial situations since major asset appreciated value)
- distribution of income
- more equitable (even), higher overall consumer spending
- low incomes spend prop more income than higher (low incoem HH higgher APC)
- policies that ^ disposable income of lower & mid income earners (^ rate social welfare payments eg. base rate JobSeeker payments) likely boost consumption & ^EG > policies ^disposable income HI earners eg. reducing top marginal income tax rate
- redistributing income from higher to lower income earners –> ^EG since lower income earners higher MPC
APC & APS
APC prop total income spent on consumption
- higher APC (hence lower APS) promote ^EG by ^ consumer spending
APS prop of total income not spent bus saved for future consumption
- ^ APS –> lower output & growth due to weaker demand
what is one of most volatile componenets of demand/aggregate exoenditure
business investment 10-15%
cost/relative cost of capital equiment influences by 3 factors (which influences invesment)
- changes in IRs
- fall, cheaper to borrow funds & purchase capital equip
- IRs opp cost for firms who own capital
- firms w cash reserves compare returns for saving money (lending to others eg. buying bonds) / funding to acquire capital/ shares to investors through ^ dividends
- if higher IRs make * returns from saving > returns from investing capital –> save>invest (& less attractive for firms borrow funds for capital investment)
- however firms unlikely invest capital if dont forecast strong demand for output
- change in price/productivity of labour/tech innovation
- labour subsitute for capital in PP / tech innovations affect relative cost of capital compared w/ labour
- if cost of labour increased/more adv labour-saving tech avialable at same cost –> relative cost of cpaital compared w/ labour decrease –> more attractive
ALSO: bus expectations abt future prospects influence investment lvl, confidence affected by
- change in expected demand for their products (if entrepreneurs expect future ^ demand, inclined purchase new capital equip to boost production & satisfy demand)
- change general eco outlook (if EG expect ^, entrepreneurs inclined invest capital equip bc ^lvl eco activity ^ ROI)
- inflation (volatile prices ^ uncertainty abt future $ & future prod costs, –> reduce investment in capital equip, investment higher when inflation low, positive, stable)
3 factors affect bus expectations/confidence (influencing investment)
bus expectaitons abt future prospects aka entrepreneurial influence lvl investment
1. change in expected DEMAND for THEIR PRODUCTS
- if entrepreneurs expected future ^ demand, more inclined to purchase new capital equip to boost production & satisfy the demand
- change in general ECO OUTLOOK
- expect ^EG, entrepreneurs mroe inclined to invest in capital equip bc higher lvl eco activity should improve ROI
- INFLATION leads to uncertainty abt future prices & production costs –> reduced investment in capital equip
- changes in IRs
- fall, cheaper to borrow funds & purchase capital equip
- IRs opp cost for firms who own capital
- firms w cash reserves compare returns for saving money (lending to others eg. buying bonds) / funding to acquire capital/ shares to investors through ^ dividends
- if higher IRs make * returns from saving > returns from investing capital –> save>invest (& less attractive for firms borrow funds for capital investment)
- however firms unlikely invest capital if dont forecast strong demand for output
- change in gvt policies relating to investment allowances & tax concessions on capital goods
- investment allowances, tax concessions on capital goods
- if allowed bus to claim full cost of cpaital equip immediatly > claiming depreciation over many yrs –> reduce tax liability & make cpaital cheaper than wouldve
- change in price/productivity of labour/tech innovation
- labour subsitute for capital in PP / tech innovations affect relative cost of capital compared w/ labour
- if cost of labour increased/more adv labour-saving tech avialable at same cost –> relative cost of cpaital compared w/ labour decrease –> more attractive
ALSO: bus expectations abt future prospects influence investment lvl, confidence affected by
- change in expected demand for their products (if entrepreneurs expect future ^ demand, inclined purchase new capital equip to boost production & satisfy demand)
- change general eco outlook (if EG expect ^, entrepreneurs inclined invest capital equip bc ^lvl eco activity ^ ROI)
- inflation (volatile prices ^ uncertainty abt future $ & future prod costs, –> reduce investment in capital equip, investment higher when inflation low, positive, stable)
influences on gvt spending & taxation & what it’s used for
total gvt spending (ocal, state, fed) ~20-25% AD/expenditure while taxation ~20-25% of AS/income
- fiscal policy one of main goals of gvt spending & taxation policies to maintain sustainable rate of eco grwoth & help achieve goals of low u/e & inflation
- gvts may ^ lvl spending and/or reduce lvl taxation to ^ ^ lvl spending and/or reduce lvl taxation to ^AD & boost growth during downturns (^ spending more effective bc only hope lower taxes boost HH &bus spending)
- also can reduce lvl spending and/or ^ lvl taxation to reduce AD & growth (boom)
- decisions influenced by policy objectives for external stability & sustainability of gvt debt
influences on exports & imports
- X & I 1/2 & 1/4 of AD
- if X rev = M spending, trade balance doesnt add/subtract from AD
- volume of X&I influenced by lvl of overseas & domestic growth/income
- when overseas income & growth lvls rise, AUS exports also rise, AUS incoem lvls rise, AUS’ imports also rise
- RELATIVE rates of overseas & dom growth determinesnet X (higher overseas growth improve BOGS, higher dom growth deteriorates)
- net exports also infleucned by ER, inflation, lvls int competitiveness (itself influenced by ER, relative inflation, labour productivity, wage lvls, gvt policies affect bus costs), protectionsit policieso f other ocuntries, consumer tastes & preferences
EXCHANGE RATE:
- when AUS weaker ER, domestic industries more competitive as relative cost to foreign consumers decreases –> ^ sales (net exports higher, add to AD &boost eco activity)
- AUS stronger ER, domestic industries less competitive & products more expnesive for foreign consumers (net exports lower, detract from AD, reduce eco grwoth)
how changes in lvl AD influence lvl eco activity
simplify eco to individuals, firms, FIs (exclude gvt/international sectors)
- income not spent on Consumption must be Saved
- AD (expenditure) made up of C&I
- S & I donest have to be equal all time even if Consumption from income = Consumption from AD
- when S not equal to I, eco disrupted from state of equilibrium –> CFOI says eco mvoe towards state of equilibrium at higher lvl eco activity when Injection of I > leakage of S, lower lvl eco activity when injection of I < leakage of S
the multiplier process
- any ^ C, I, G, NC generate larger ^ eco activity > new injection of spending into eco
- MULTIPLIER EFFECT: greater than prop ^ national income(GDP) from ^ AD,
- during eco shock eg. change in consumer/bus expectations, IRs, gvt policies –> change injections/leakages
- eg. improved bus expectations for eco recovery –> ^ bus investment & expenditure (Demand) –> ^ income for inds –> consumer more –> further ^ expenditure & income
- inital ^ investment has multiplied impacto n national income
- BUT ^ investment doesnt continue ^ incoem foreover. each time injection moves, its impact on expenditure smaller bc some incoem not consumed but saved!!
- savings is leakage reducing effect of higher investment on national income
- no. times final increase in national income > initial ^ expenditure that caused it is multiplier
to caclulate how a changei n injections / leakages has a multiplied impact on income, consider 2 more conectps
- MPC prop of each extra dollar income spent on consumer products (change consumption/change income)
- MPS prop of each extra dollar income saved (change savings/change income)
MPC + MPS = 1 since each extra dollar income must be spent/saved
what 3 points should be considered before the total increase in incoem generated by mutipler process is calculated?
- MPS causes amt incoem generated by each successive wave of spending to decrease
- sum of each successive wave of income generated adds up to total amt which national income increases.
- the final increase in national income = initial increase AD multiplied by ‘the multiplier’
the simple multiplier formula (k)
k = 1/MPS or k = 1/1-MPC
the larger the MPs & the smaller the MPS effect on value of the multiplier
larger MPS = smaller value of multipler
- if inds save prop more of extra income, spend less –> generate less additional income
- factor which multiply initial increase in AD must also be less
smaller MPS = larger value of multiplier
- multiplier prcess occurs bc initial injections causes new waves of spending as all sectors of the eco interconnected
- if gvt ^ spending (build new roads,) firms receive payments to purchase FOP & workers recieve wages they can consume/save
any change in lvl of __ __ (from changes in investment, gvt, consumer, net export spending) will have multiplied effect on lvl of __ __. gvts use the multiplier process bc
planned expenditure, national income
bc an initial ^ in gvt spending can result in a much larger ^ in eco activity as all sectors eco interconnected (gvt must estimate size of k (hence MPC & MPS) to determine amt gvt spending to coutneract anticipated downturn
while shiftsi n AD play main role determining lvl eco growth in long/short term, AS plays an important short/long term role in influencing lvls eco grwoth
AD shoerter term, AS long term