Tørstad - Participation, ambition and compliance

Question 1

What is Tørstad’s effectiveness trilemma?

Answer 1

The three crucial factors of successful climate agreements stand in conflict with one another

→ Broad participation vs High ambition vs Sufficient compliance

Question 2

How does Tørstad operationalize “Broad participation”? What is his result?

Answer 2

How much of global emissions are the participating countries responsible for.
→ Paris: 98% of emissions

Question 3

How does Tørstad operationalize “High ambition”? What is his result?

Answer 3

Oslo-Potsdam solution to regime effectiveness:
RE = (AP-NR)/(CO-NR)

Regime effectiveness score (RE)
No-regime counterfactual (NR)
Actual performance of the regime (AP)
Collective optimum (CO)

→ (2.7 - 3.6)/(1.5 - 3.6) = 0.43
→ Paris solves 43% of the problem

Question 4

How does Tørstad operationalize “Sufficient compliance”? What is his result?

Answer 4

Adequate implementation of mitigation components of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

→ Paris’ compliance mechanism may work even though it is not based on strong enforcement

Question 5

What three strengths of Paris does Tørstad name?

Answer 5

1. Universality (Very inclusive process)
2. Signaling changed economic incentives (change presented as economically beneficial)
3. Collaboration with non-state actors (companies and societal actors)

Question 6

What obstacles for Paris does Tørstad see?

Answer 6

1. Domestic politics (Right-wing populism, autocratization)
2. Capacity shortages (Developing countries often struggle to count emissions)
3. Climate finance (promised financing not completely fulfilled)