UNIT #12: RISK ASSESMENT Flashcards
(65 cards)
1
Q
Actuarial prediction
A
Decisions are based on risk factors that are selected and combined based on their empirical or statistical association with a specific outcome
2
Q
Base Rate
A
Represents the percentage of people within a given population who commit a criminal or violent act
3
Q
Clinical risk factors
A
Types and symptoms of mental disorders (e.g. substance abuse)
4
Q
Contextual risk factors
A
Risk factors that refer to aspects of the current environment (e.g. access to victims or weapons)
Sometimes also called situational risk factors
5
Q
Coping-relapse model of criminal recidivism
A
Model that attempts to explain why an individual will commit another offence after release from prison
6
Q
Desistance
A
The process of ceasing to engage in criminal behaviour
7
Q
Dispositional risk factors
A
Risk factors that reflect the individuals traits, tendencies, or styles (e.g. negative attitudes)
8
Q
Dynamic risk factor
A
Risk factors that fluctuate over time and are amendable to change
9
Q
False negative
A
An incorrect prediction that occurs when a person is predicted not to engage in some type of behaviour (ex. Violent act) but does
10
Q
False positive
A
An incorrect prediction that occurs when a person is predicted to engage in some type of behaviour (ex. A violent act) but does not
11
Q
Historical risk factors
A
Risk factors that refer to events that have been experienced in the past (ex. Age at first arrest) (AKA static risk factors)
12
Q
Illusory correlation
A
Belief that a correlation exists between two events that in reality are either not correlated or correlated to a much lesser degree
13
Q
Positive factors
A
Factors that mitigate or reduce the likelihood of a negative outcome (e g. Delinquency, aggression)
14
Q
Situational risk factors
A
Risk factors that refer to aspects of the current environment (ex. Access to weapons or victims)
15
Q
Static risk factors
A
Risk factor that does not fluctuate over time and has not changed by treatment (ex. Age at first arrest)
16
Q
Structured professional judgment
x3
A
(1) term professional is used to acknowledge that it is not only clinicians who make evaluations of risk but a diverse group, including law enforcement officers, probation officers, and social workers)
(2) Arose from the limitations associated with
unstructured clinical judgment and concern that the actuarial method did not allow for individualized risk appraisal or for consideration of the impact of situational factors to modify risk level
(3) Decisions are guided by a predetermined list of risk factors that have been selected from the research and professional literature. Judgement of risk level is based on the evaluator’s professional judgement
17
Q
True negative
A
A correct prediction that occurs when a person who is predicted not to engage in some type of behaviour (ex. A violent act) does not
18
Q
True positive
A
The correct prediction that occurs when a person who is predicted to engage in some type of behaviour (e.g. violent act) does so
19
Q
Unstructured clinical judgement
x3
A
(1) Decisions characterized by a substantial amount of professional discretion and lack of guidelines
(2) no predefined rules about what risk factors should be considered, what sources of information should be used, or how the risk factors should be
combined to make a decision about risk.
(3) risk factors considered vary across clinicians
and vary across cases
20
Q
two components risk
assessment comprises
x3
A
(1) the critical function of risk assessments is violence prevention, not violence prediction.
(2) PREDICTION
(3) Management
21
Q
two components risk
assessment comprises:
Prediction
x2
A
(1) describes the probability that an individual will commit future criminal or violent acts.
(2) focus of this component is on identifying the risk factors that are related to this likelihood of
future violence.
22
Q
two components risk
assessment comprises
Management
A
(1) describes the development of interventions to manage or reduce the likelihood of future violence
23
Q
areas in which a risk evaluation can occur:
Criminal
A
(1) refer to situations in which
an individual has been
charged with a crime.
24
Q
areas in which a risk evaluation can occur:
Civil
A
(1) refer to the private rights of individuals and the legal proceedings connected with such rights
25
areas in which a risk evaluation can occur:
Child protection
(1) involves the laws that
are in place to protect
children from abuse
26
areas in which a risk evaluation can occur:
Immigration laws
prohibit the admission of individuals into Canada if there are reasonable grounds for believing they will engage in acts of violence or if they pose a risk to the social, cultural, or economic functioning of Canadian society
27
areas in which a risk evaluation can occur:
School and labour
regulations
include provisions to prevent any kind of act that would endanger others
28
areas in which a risk evaluation can occur:
Duty to warn
```
(1) Mental health professionals
are expected to consider the
likelihood that their patients will
act in a violent manner and to
intervene to prevent such behaviour
```
29
TYPES OF PREDICTION OUTCOMES &; RELATION
TO RECIDIVISM:
TYPES
x4
(1) FALSE POSITIVE
(2) FALSE NEGATIVE
(3) TRUE NEGATIVE
(4) TRUE POSITIVE
30
DISCUSS ISSUES WITH TYPES OF PREDICTION OUTCOMES & RELATION TO RECIDIVISM
(1) problem with attempting to predict violence is
determining base rates
(2) base rate represents the percentage of people within a given population who commit a criminal or violent act
(3) difficult to make accurate predictions when the base
rates are too high or too low
(4) problem that emerges when attempting to predict events that have a low base rate is that many
false positives will occur
(5) base rate can vary dramatically depending on the group being studied, what is being predicted, and the length of the follow-up period over which the individual is monitored.
(6) For example, the base rate of sexual violence tends to be relatively low, even over extended follow-up periods, whereas the base rate for violating the
conditions of a conditional release is very high
(7) The base rate problem is not such a concern if predictions of violence are limited to groups with a high base rate of violence, such as incarcerated offenders. The general rule is that it is easier to predict frequent events than infrequent events
31
Baxstrom and Dixon studies: implications for mentally disordered forensic patients
x3
(1) U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the plaintiff Johnnie Baxstrom had been detained beyond his sentence expiry and ordered him released into the community
(2) As a result of this case, more than 300 mentally ill offenders from the Dannemora State Hospital for the Criminally Insane and another state hospital were released into the community or transferred to less secure institutions
(3) call into question the ability of mental health professionals to make accurate predictions of violence.
32
Baxstrom and Dixon studies: implications for mentally disordered forensic patients
**Two key findings emerged from the research**
x4
(1) the base rate for violence was relatively low.
(2) For example, in the Baxstrom study, 7 out of 98 (roughly 7%) violently reoffended, as did 60 out of 400 (15%) in the Dixon study.
(3) Second, the false positive rate was very high.
(4) In the Baxstrom and Dixon studies, the false positive rates were 86% and 85%, respectively
33
METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN RISK EVALUATION STUDIES
x3
(1) limited number of risk factors being studied. Violent behaviour is due to a complex interaction between individual dispositions and situational factors
(2) second issue concerns how the criterion variable (the variable you are trying to measure) is measured
(3) Finally, how the criterion variable is defined is a concern.
34
METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN RISK EVALUATION STUDIES:
(3) how the criterion variable is defined is a concern.
x3
(1) some studies researchers will classify their participants as having either engaged in violence or not.
(2) recommended that researchers expand this coding to include the severity of violence (threatened violence versus severe violence), types of violence (spousal violence versus sexual violence), targets of violence (family versus stranger), location (institutions versus community), and motivation (reactive [unplanned
violence in response to a provocation] versus instrumental [violence used as an instrument in the pursuit of some goal])
(3) likely that some risk factors will be associated with certain forms of violence
35
METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN RISK EVALUATION STUDIES:
```
(2) second issue concerns how the
criterion variable (the variable you are
trying to measure) is measured
```
x4
(1) Researchers have often used official criminal records as their criterion measure. However, many crimes may never be reported to police.
(2) many false positives may be undiscovered true positives
(3) Even violent crimes may go undiscovered and many violent sexual crimes are recorded as
simply violent in nature
(4) use of official records underestimates violence
36
METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN RISK EVALUATION STUDIES:
(1) limited number of risk factors being studied. Violent behaviour is due to a complex interaction between individual dispositions and situational factors.
x3
(1) people engage in violence for many different reasons.
(2) Thus, many risk factors are likely involved, including the person’s background, social situation, and biological and psychological features. Many studies have focused on only a
limited number of risk factors.
(3) recommended researchers pay more attention to understanding how an individual’s subjective state leads an individual to commit violence
37
MAIN METHODS OF
RISK EVALUATION
x3
(1) Structured professional judgment
(2) mechanical prediction
(3) Unstructured clinical judgment
38
MAIN METHODS OF
RISK EVALUATION:
Mechanical prediction
x6
(1) involves predefined rules about
what risk factors to consider,
how information should be collected, and how information should be combined to make a risk decision
(2) risk factors do not vary as a function of the clinician and the same risk factors are considered for each case.
(3) common type of mechanical prediction is called actuarial prediction
(4) Decisions are based on risk factors that are selected and combined based on their empirical
or statistical association with a specific outcome
(5) concluded that actuarial prediction was equal to or better than unstructured clinical judgment
in all cases.
(6) criticism of many actuarial assessments has been their sole reliance on static risk factors,
which do not permit measuring changes in risk over time or provide information relevant for intervention
39
Types of Risk Factors
x8
(1) a measurable feature of an individual that predicts the behaviour of interest, such as violence
(2) situational
(3) contextual
(4) historical
(5) clinical
(6) dispositional
(7) static
(8) dynamic
40
key historical factors that
predict future violence:
x3
(1) most accurate predictor of
future behaviour is past behaviour.
(2) Age of Onset
(3) child history of maltreatment
41
Age of Onset
x2
(1) individuals who start their
antisocial behaviour at an earlier age are more chronic and serious offenders
(2) For example, found that 50% of the boys who committed a violent offence prior to age 16 were convicted of a violent offence in early adulthood
42
Childhood History
of Maltreatment
x2
(1) victims of physical abuse or
who were victims of neglect were
much more likely to commit criminal acts as compared with those who were not abused
(2) Being abused in childhood predicts initiation into delinquency, but continued abuse predicts chronic offending
43
age and gender related to the risk of
committing violence
x5
(1) Males are at higher risk than are females for general offending
(2) males engage in more serious violent acts, such as sexual assaults, homicides, and assaults causing bodily harm
(3) Some studies using self-report measures have found that females engage in similar or even higher rates of less serious violence
(4) Dozens of studies have firmly established age of first offence as a risk factor for both general and
violent recidivism in both offenders with mental disorders and offenders without mental disorders
(5) Offenders who are arrested prior to age 14 tend to have more serious and more extensive criminal careers than those who are first arrested
after age 14
44
situational contexts that are correlated with violence
x2
(1) Access to Weapons or Victims
| (2) Lack Of social support
45
situational contexts that are correlated with violence:
Lack of Social Support
x2
(1) absence of strong support
systems to help individuals in their day-to-day lives
(2) found that the current relationship an offender with a mental disorder has with his or her parents and siblings is related to violence
46
situational contexts that are correlated with violence:
Access to weapons or Victims
x3
(1) If the offender is released into
an environment that permits easy access to weapons or victims,
the potential for another violent act increases
(2) If the offender has engaged in violence with other associates or under the influence of substances, releasing the offender to live in the same circumstances that led to past violence may induce future violence
(3) if offenders who have assaulted their spouses and refused treatment for domestic violence return to live with their spouses, they have a much
higher likelihood of violence than those who do not have easy access to a past victim.
47
actuarial tools of risk evaluation
x2
(1) Violence Risk Appraisal Guide
| (2) Static-99
48
Static-99
x6
(1) is a 10-item actuarial scale designed to predict sexual recidivism.
(2) All items on this scale are static in nature.
(3) Scores can range from 0 to 12
(4) with scores being associated with four risk categories: low, moderate-low, moderate-high, and high.
(5) Items on the Static-99
include the following:
■Young age at time of release
■Ever lived with intimate partner
■Any prior nonsexual
violent convictions
■Any index nonsexual
violent convictions
■Number of prior sex offences
■Number of prior sentences
■Any male victims
■Any unrelated victims
■Any stranger victims
■Any noncontact sex offences
(6) meta-analysis reported moderate to strong
predictive validity across more than 60 studies and 24,000 offenders.
49
Violence Risk Appraisal Guide
x5
(1) empirically derived 12-item measure designed to assess the long-term risk for violent recidivism in offenders with mental disorders
(2) Researchers coded about 50 risk factors from institutional files in a sample of 618 male adult patients with mental disorders who had been
transferred to less secure institutions or released
into the community
(3) Statistical analyses were used to select the 12 best predictors of violence from childhood history,
adult adjustment, offence history, and assessment results
(4) The 12 predictors varied in terms of how strongly they were related to violent recidivism
and included the following (ordered from most to least predictive)
(5) ■Hare Psychopathy Checklist–Revised score
■Elementary school maladjustment
■Diagnosis of any personality disorder
■Age at index offence (young age, higher risk)
■Separation from biological parents prior to age 16
■Failure on prior conditional release
■Prior nonviolent offences
■Single marital status at time of offence
■Diagnosis of schizophrenia (lower risk)
■Victim injury (less injury, higher risk)
■History of alcohol problems
■Victim gender (female victim, lower risk)
(6) Using scores on each of these risk factors, nine risk categories—or “bins”—were created. Each risk bin has a probability of violent recidivism within ten years ranging from 9% (bin 1), to 35% (bin 5), to 100% (bin 9)
50
Coping-Relapse Model
of criminal conduct
x5
(1) According to the model, the first event is some type
of environmental trigger.
(2) What will be considered a trigger varies across individuals and can range from stressful life events, such as losing a job, having relationship problems, and financial difficulties, to more mundane daily events, such as being stuck in a traffic jam.
(3) Once the event has occurred, the individual will invoke both an emotional and cognitive appraisal of the event.
(4) If this appraisal process results in the experience of negative emotions (e.g., anger, hostility, fear) or elevated levels of stress, the individual will attempt to deal with these unpleasant feelings.
(5) If the individual does not possess adequate coping mechanisms, a worsening cycle of negative emotions
and maladaptive cognitions occurs, eventually resulting in criminal behaviour
51
Coping-Relapse Model
of criminal conduct:
how an individual perceives and responds to an environmental trigger is dependent on two factors:
(1) individual and response mechanisms.
52
Coping-Relapse Model
of criminal conduct:
individual mechanisms
x2
(1) Individual influences include factors such as criminal history and enduring personality traits (e.g., psychopathy, emotional reactivity)
(2) Individual influences include factors such as criminal history and enduring personality traits (e.g., psychopathy, emotional reactivity)
53
Coping-Relapse Model
of criminal conduct:
response mechanisms
(1) Available response mechanisms also influence how an individual will perceive a situation, which, in turn, will mediate that person’s response
(2) considered to be more dynamic in nature and, thus,
are important targets for intervention.
(3) Examples of these factors include coping ability,
substance use, criminal attitudes and associates,
and social supports
54
three rating tools that use structured professional
| judgment to predict violence
(1) Violence Risk Scale (VRS)
(2) Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI)
(3) HCR-20
55
Violence Risk Scale (VRS)
(1) designed to provide information on an offender’s risk to reoffend while at the same time providing
treatment targets to reduce the offender’s risk
(2) consists of 26 items: 6 static risk factors and
20 dynamic risk factors
56
Violence Risk Scale (VRS):
static risk factors
x14
```
(1) static risk factors include the following:
■Age of first violent conviction
■Number of juvenile convictions
■Violence throughout life span
■Stability of family upbringing
■Prior release failures/escapes
■Current age
■Criminal history
■Education/employment problems
■Family/marital relationship problems
■Lack of leisure/recreation activities
■Antisocial companions
■Alcohol/drug problems
■Procriminal attitudes/orientation
■Antisocial personality pattern
```
57
Violence Risk Scale (VRS):
dynamic risk factors
x5
(1) are those that can be changed through treatment.
(2) Work ethic (Does the individual want to work for a living or does the individual use violence or other socially inappropriate ways [e.g., pimping, drug dealing] of supporting him- or herself?)
(2) Emotional regulation/control (Is the individual able to control his or her emotions or is there a persistent
relationship between inability to control emotions and violence?
(3) Impulsivity (Does the individual consider the consequences of his or her behaviour or is the
individual still reacting impulsively?)
(4) predicts violent and nonviolent reoffending at a moderate level, and those offenders who scored highest on the VRS reoffended the earliest when released.
(5) Insight into violence (Does the individual understand what factors are related to why he has committed violence or does the individual lack insight by denying
responsibility, blaming others, or refusing recommended intervention?)
58
Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI)
(1) is a comprehensive risk/need-assessment and
treatment-planning system
(2) It consists of 11 sections that are scored based on
a semi-structured interview and review of the offender’s
file information
(3) Section 1 consists of 43 items that are summed to yield a total risk score. These items are designed to
measure the “Central Eight” risk factors that have been reliably associated with recidivism:
59
HCR-20
x3
(1) designed to predict violent behaviour in correctional and forensic psychiatric samples
(2) the evaluator conducts a systematic risk assessment and refers to a list of risk factors, each having specific
coding criteria and a demonstrated relationship with violent recidivism based on the existing professional
and empirical literature.
(3) HCR-20 stands for the list of 20 items organized into three main scales that align risk factors into past (historical), present (clinical), and future (risk management).
60
HCR-20:
```
Risk management (future community or
institutional adjustment of the individual):
```
x5
```
■Feasibility of plans
■Exposure to destabilizers
■Level of personal support
■Stress
■Likelihood of treatment compliance .
```
61
HCR-20:
Historical (primarily static in nature):
x11
```
■Past violence
■Age at first violent offence
■Relationship instability
■Employment instability
■Relationship problems
■Substance-use problems
■Major mental disorder
■Psychopathy
■Early maladjustment
■Personality disorder
■Prior supervision failure
```
62
HCR-20:
Clinical (reflect current, dynamic risk
factors):
x5
```
■Lack of insight
■Negative attitudes
■Active mental disorder symptoms
■Impulsivity
■Treatability
```
63
factors or attributes reduce the likelihood of violence or anti-social acts by high-risk offenders
(1) Protective factors: Factors that mitigate or reduce the
| likelihood of a negative outcome (e.g., delinquency, aggression)
64
Protective factors:
x5
(1) employment stability
(2) strong attachments
(3) positive social orientation (e.g., school, work)
(4) prosocial involvement
(5) strong social supports
65
factors are related to the cessation of criminal conduct
in some offenders?
x5
(1) Social avoidance
(2) Orientation to the family
(3) Insight triggered by negative events connected to their criminal lifestyle.
(4) Age is strongly related to criminal behaviour, and the age-related decline in criminal offending is connected to the maturation process
(5) as people age, they become less interested in a criminal lifestyle and are more able to understand and fear the consequences of engaging in crime
