Valence Factors In Determining Election Outcomes Flashcards
(6 cards)
What is valence
Voters choose which party they think is going to be most effective in gov. Leadership and competence are key to this.
Leadership
Since political commentators have talked about the ‘presidentialisatin’ of British politics since the 1979 election, leadership and competency proved crucial in shaping the voters’ perception of leading figures like in the U.S.
E.g nick clegg’s success in the 2010 leaders’ debate which resulted in a boost in the polls for the Lib Dem’s, their popularity led to their coalition government with Cameron. His biggest win was increasing the income tax threshold.
Margeret thatcher won a landslide bc of her success in the falklands war and competence in fixing inflation. Gordon brown’s reputation is still stained even until today because of his alleged cowardice.
Important in winning swing seat e.g Johnson’s personal popularity allowed the conservatives to win the votes of many former Labour voters in the ‘red wall.’
Sunak was one of the most unpopular part leaders in history with a net favourability of -51%, tarnished by his involvement in party gate and exacbeted when he left the d-day event early. Alternatively, starmer looked like a better alternative with -17 according to YouGOv
CA to leadership and judgement
Voters care far more about policies and how it would affect them
Rational choice evaluating which option is most beneficial to them. ‘Economic voting’— homeowners more likely to vote for con whereas those who rent would vote for lab. E.g 40% of those renting or have mortgages voted lab compared to 25 %of homeowners.
Issue based voting like Brexit. 74% leave voted for con and 49% remain voted lab.
Leadership is more important when there is little policy difference between the two political parties such as in 2010 but issue based voting more important in 2019 election.
Competence
Important in 1979 election. Labour was voted out due to their inability to manage the economy and trade union in the context of the 1979 winter of discontent, which the cap capitalised on by using the slogan ‘lab isnt working’ to better advertise themselves.
In 1997, con lost their competence after the financial mismanagement of ‘black Wednesday’ so lab was able to present themselves as an economic competent party by promising not to increase income tax.
One reason for Lab’s landslide victory in the 2024 election was the negative perception of the Conservative Party scandals party gate, further compounded by truss who plummeted the pound value, leading to increased gov borrowing.
CA to competence and judgment
Short term issues that arise in campaigns more sig
E.g 2017 Theresa may announced plans to change social welfare so those receiving care from their home would also have to contribute to the cost of their care. Dubbed by the media as the ‘dementia tax’ massive backlash led to drop in popularity.
In the 2010, election campaign, Gordon brown attended an unscripted meeting with a voter (Duffy) in Rochdale. After she embarrassed him abut a question on immigration and the national debt, brown called it a ‘disaster’ and called her a ‘bigoted woman’ which was picked up by microphones after he got driven away, he was forced to apologies.
Campaign more important in getting the marginal and swing seats because most voters would have already made up their mind at first glance of the campaign.
Media
1997 ‘it’s the sun wot won it’ in 1992 and ‘it was the sun that swung it.’ In 1997. Leading to a landslide victory for the Labour Party for Blair.
Social media- youth access to it, and saw the popularity of Elon musk led to vote for nige farage’s reform uk party, who won local elections.
Farafe trying to attract younger voters through reform’s insurgent and dymanic tick tok account.
CA- press’ influence is overstated and headlines reinforce the views of voter than change their mind. E.g the overwhelming con dominion of the press has coincided with strong election performances for the conservatives in each of the last four GE years.
Media can create more polarisation such as the ‘woke’ backlash framed by papers, attack on more liberal evolutionary terms. Like the daily mail- more con
Populism in tabloids for Brexit campaigns as ‘taking back control’ rather than trade deals and improving democracy by reaffirming parliamentary sovereignty. Did this by misleading info and exploiting rhetoric such as £350 million for the nhs displayed on buses and the aftermath of it led to erosion of trust to political leaders e.g a high record of 45% in a poll said no to never trusting political leaders again, exacerbated in the 2022 party gate scandal.
Political polarisation - us vs them reductive outlook- stuck in information bubbles and be associated around people with similar beliefs to them - echo chamber- like twitter reinforce them.
