Voting Behaviour and the Media Flashcards
1
Q
In which two years of the 1990s did the UK have a general election?
A
1992 and 1997
2
Q
Which five non-political factors characteristics typically affect individual electors’ voting behaviour?
A
Age, class, ethnicity, gender and region
3
Q
What name is given to the process by which individuals no longer regard themselves as belonging to a social class and therefore this no longer influences their voting behaviour?
A
Class dealignment
4
Q
What percentage of votes from ‘AB’ socio-economic class voters (higher, managerial and professional occupations) did the Conservative Party take in the general elections of 1964 and 2019?
A
78% in 1964 and 45% in 2019
5
Q
What percentage of votes from ‘DE’ socio-economic class voters (semi-skilled and unskilled occupations) did the Labour Party take in the general elections of 1964 and 2019?
A
64% in 1964 and 39% in 2019 (a big drop from 59% in 2017)
6
Q
What is meant by the term ‘partisan dealignment’?
A
Individuals no longer identify themselves on a long-term basis by association with a certain political party
7
Q
What three major factors have contributed to partisan dealignment?
A
Increased access to education, greater impact of the media and ideological shift by the parties
8
Q
One of the main consequences of partisan dealignment has been increased volatility in elections, what is the other?
A
Rise of minor parties
9
Q
What key piece of information does the National Readership Survey use when deciding what class people belong to?
A
Occupation
10
Q
What name is give to someone who studies elections and voting behaviour?
A
Psephologist
11
Q
What major change in the structure of the UK economy has contributed to a change in the UK’s class structure and class dealignment?
A
Shift from heavy industry and manual labour to service sector (deindustrialisation)
12
Q
Which single word describes the process by which a working-class person adopts middle-class values as a result of increased income or wealth?
A
Embourgeoisement
13
Q
Which single issue is likely to be the biggest issue in increased class dealignment in UK politics since the 2015 general election?
A
Brexit
14
Q
What factor do psephologists believes have largely replaced class as a major factor in determining the outcomes of elections?
A
Education
15
Q
In the 2019 UK general election, which party took 55% of the votes from electors whose highest qualification is a GCSE or lower?
A
Conservative Party
16
Q
What percentage of electors with a university degree voted Labour in the 2019 general election?
A
49%
17
Q
What does is mean if it is said that education tends to have a ‘liberalising effect’?
A
It makes recipients more accepting, tolerant and believe more strongly in equality.
18
Q
Which UK general election was the first in which more women voted Labour than Conservative?
A
1997
19
Q
Why might UK political parties be more likely to tailor policies to attract women voters in an election than men?
A
Historically turnout has been higher amongst women
20
Q
At what age is the average voter equally likely to vote Conservative or Labour?
A
39
21
Q
True or false: For every ten years older a UK voter is, the probability of them voting Conservative increases (on average) by 9 percentage points?
A
This is true
22
Q
Give two economic reasons why older voters are more likely to vote Conservative.
A
Higher incomes (more likely to have been promoted), increased home ownership or higher job security
23
Q
Conservative views and policies on which issue are a major reason why BAME voters have tended to favour Labour in elections?
A
Immigration
24
Q
Labour governments from 1997-2010 passed landmark legislation to prevent what, thus making them more attractive to BAME voters?
A
Discrimination
25
BAME voters may also be more likely to vote Labour due to what other factors?
Social class, income, education and occupation
26
Which scandal of 2018-19, centred on the Home Office, may deter BAME voters from voting Conservative in the future?
Windrush (the deportation of long-settled Commonwealth migrants unable to prove their immigration status)
27
Although challenged by some results in 2019, what name has been given to the swathe of Labour-stronghold constituencies across the North of England and Midlands?
Red wall
28
In which part of the UK has the Labour party seen the greatest fall in the proportion of seats won in recent general elections?
Scotland
29
In which two parts of England do the Liberal Democrats tend to perform best in general elections?
London and the South-West
30
Which party won more than half of the 40 seats in Wales at the 2019 general election and 2/3 in 2024?
Labour (22/40 and 21/32)
31
How many of the 59 Scottish seats were won by the Scottish National Party in the 2019 general election?
48
32
Some people argue that region is not a major indicator of voting behaviour because it overlaps heavily with what other factors?
Income/wealth/property ownership and class
33
Typically what two issues do voters regard as the most important in general elections?
The economy and the NHS
34
What was the most important single issue in voting behaviour during the 2019 UK general election?
Brexit - the party/leader were most likely to secure the outcome they wanted.
35
Give an example of a Brexit-related Conservative Party slogan used during the 2019 UK general election?
Get Brexit done' and 'Oven-ready deal'.
36
What percentage of 'Leave' voters voted Conservative in the UK 2019 general election?
74%
37
Why did the high poroportion of "leave" voters supporting the Conservative Party translate into huge electoral success, even though less than 52% of the population supported Brexit in the referendum?
Remain' voters were split (49% voted Labour but 21% voted Liberal Democrat)
38
What did 33% of those who voted "leave" in 2016 and Labour in the 2017 UK general election do in 2019?
Voted Conservative
39
Conservative "remain" supporters who voted for another party in the 2019 general election tended to support which party?
Liberal Democrat
40
Valence means voting for a party based on how BLANK and BLANK it seems.
[competent] [credible]
41
When does valence become more important for deciding elections?
When parties become more similar ideologically
42
Explain valence in the context of election promises.
The parties may make similar promises, but voters choose which party is more likely to deliver on that promise
43
In spite of the popularity of many of their policies, why did many voters not back Labour in the 2019 UK general election?
Under Jeremy Corbyn many voters did not see the Labour front bench as a credible government-in-waiting
44
Why did the Liberal Democrats' main manifesto pledge in 2019 lack credibility for many voters?
They wanted to revoke Article 50 without a further referendum which many felt was undemocratic
45
What was the main reason why the Labour manifesto in 2019 lacked credibility?
It promised a significant increase in public spending while pledging that only those earning over 80k would pay more tax
46
Complete this political aphorism: 'BLANK lose elections. BLANK do not win them."
[Governments] [opposition parties]
47
How does the 1945 UK general election show that the role of the party leaders in deciding election outcomes has increased over time?
Attlee's Labour Party won a landslide, in spite of the huge personal popularity of wartime PM Winston Churchill
48
In the context of an election, what are the five main roles of a party leader?
To inspire party activists, appear prime ministerial, have a positive media presence, appear strong in leading the party (and, if elected, the nation) and be trustworthy
49
Why do the media focus on the character and image of the party leader?
It is easier to report on a single person than a range of figures or policies
50
Which party leader polled well in 2010 but saw his party win five fewer seats (vs. 2005)?
Nick Clegg
51
What is the most obvious evidence that Margaret Thatcher was a successful party leader?
Won three general elections (1979, 1983 and 1987)
52
What is the most obvious evidence that Theresa May was not a successful party leader?
Forced to resign after failing to secure backing for her Brexit deal
53
35% of former Labour voters told pollsters that the Party leadership was the main reason they did not vote Labour again in 2019, what was the second biggest factor in voters' decision (19%)?
Brexit
54
What is a manifesto?
A set of policies/promises that a party would pursue if elected to office
55
What key manifesto pledge did the Liberal Democrats break as part of the 2010-15 coalition government, undermining the electorate's faith in them?
To scrap tuition fees (instead allowing them to rise)
56
How can an election campaign undermine valence?
If it is ill thought-out or full of blunders it can damage reputations and trustworthy the party is perceived to be
57
How were the contrasting campaigns important in the outcome of the 1992 UK general election?
Labour's campaign was presidential(-ish) and perceived as arrogant with Kinnock (Labour leader) ridiculed in the press, while Major engaged with voters from his soapbox and was presented as a man of the people.
58
Which UK general election is a prime example of a strong campaign and improved electoral performance, even though the party did not make it to government?
2017 (Labour)
59
In spite of the reduction in their majority, what evidence is there that the Conservative campaign in 2017 was not so bad?
Their share of the popular vote actually increased from 2015
60
In what sense was Jeremy Corbyn on the receiving end of a campaign between 2017 and 2019?
The mainstream media branded him as an extreme socialist too irresponsible for government
61
Why can Labour's 1997 campaign be regarded as unimportant to the outcome of the election?
Evidence suggests that they would have won the election anyway
62
How does the 2019 general election show that campaigns may not be central to the outcome of the election?
Boris Johnson made repeated blunders (e.g. hiding in a fridge) and was evasive, but Brexit was so salient that promises to achieve this were enough for the Conservatives to succeed
63
What is tactical voting?
When a voter votes for a party other than the one they would like to win, particularly when they know that their preferred candidate cannot realistically win
64
Why is it difficult to know how big of a factor tactical voting is in determining elections?
It is difficult to know ecactly how many people vote tactically
65
What prooprtion of the elctorate are believed to have voted tactically in the 2010 UK general election?
10%
66
What evidence is there that tactical voting in Scotland was ineffective in 2015?
Most tactical votes were cast against the SNP and yet the party enjoyed its greatest success
67
Which major UK political parties have endorsed tactical voting and in which election(s)?
It has never happened
68
How was the Labour Party damaged by its party image in the 1980s?
Too closely tied to the trade unions and out of touch with the electorate
69
How did Tony Blair end the Labour Party's commitment to nationalisation?
Removed the old Clause IV from the Labour Party constitution
70
With which section of the electorate was Corbyn's forward-thinking and considerate image of the Labour Party most popular?
Young voters
71
Which issue divided the Conservative Party in the 1990s and the Labour Party in 2019, costing both of them electorally?
Europe
72
What is the most likely cause of higher turnout in an election?
When the result is regarded as close and voters regard their vote as being more valuable
73
Turnout in general elections since 2005 has been on average
67%
74
Describe the trend regarding the number of voters that switch parties between elections.
Much higher now than in the 1970s/1980s due to partisan dealignment, but lower in 2019 than 2017 and 2015 (when it peaked at over 40%)
75
The two main roles of the media in an election are to BLANK the electorate and to make sure parties are held BLANK.
[inform] [accountable]
76
Which collective term refers to television and radio stations?
Broadcast media
77
What evidence is there from the 2010 election that the media may have limited influence on election outcomes?
The Liberal Democrats took a lower percentage of votes, in spite of Clegg's performance in televised debates ("I agree with Nick")
78
Which newspaper claimed a central role in the outcome of the 1992 UK general election after its relentless attacks on Neil Kinnock?
The Sun
79
How is the political reporting in a tabloid newspaper likely to differ from that in a broadsheet?
Less factual and less 'highbrow', likely to simplify issues and avoid weightier political themes
80
Does the reporting in broadsheet newspapers contain bias?
Yes, although it may be less obvious (for example in choosing which issues to cover in detail)
81
What major change in the allegiances of newspapers occurred in 1997?
The Sun (Britain's best-selling newspaper) switched from backing the Conservatives to Labour ('Give change a chance')
82
Give one argument for and against the proposition that Facebook advertising had a significant impact on the 2019 UK general election.
Facebook Ad Library showed that at the start of December the Conservatives had 2,500 live paid-for advertisements compared to Labour's 250 (but the Liberal Democrats had more still with 3,000)
83
What two things did Ed Milliband do during the televised leaders' debate to undermine Labour's election campaign in 2015?
Fell off the stage and said 'Hell yes, I'm tough enough', looking less prime ministerial.
84
What evidence is there that Milliband's performance in the televised leadership debates in 2015 had little impact?
Opinion polls showed that it merely reinforced existing voting intentions
85
How might opinion polls affect voter turnout?
If the opinion polls show a close contest (or predicts defeat for a voter's preferred candidate) it makes it more likely that an elector's vote might be important, thus increasing the incentive to turn out and vote
86
How can opinion polls negatively affect democracy?
Polls can misrepresent public opinion and affect the way that people vote
87
Give four recent examples of inaccurate opinion polls.
2014 IndyRef, 2015 general election, 2016 Brexit referendum, 2017 general election and the scale of the Conservative victory in 2019
88
Explain why the 2015 general election is the strongest recent example of opinion polls influencing voting behaviour.
The polls suggested a hung parliament, with the SNP holding the balance of power and supporting a Labour government. The Conservatives were able to campaign against this and the polls underestimated the support for Conservative and overestimated Labour's support
89
How may opinion polls have affected Liberal Democrat support in the 2015 general election?
By reporting that the Liberal Democrats would take few votes, this may have deterred people from supporting the Liberal Democrats via tactical voting
90
Traditionally what are the three roles of the media between elections?
To inform the public, maintain/promote debate and to improve democracy by providing scrutiny
91
How might tabloid newspapers undermine democracy?
Partisan bias in coverage, focusing more on scandalous/sensational stories, focusing on leaders personalities rather than their ability
92
How has modern technology meant that the media may undermine democracy?
Social media allows stories to circulate unchecked (and depending on who people follow/interact with online to reinforce their existing views in an 'echo chamber' rather than debate) and 24-hour news coverage requires constant headline-grabbing
93
How did the Daily Mail undermine democracy by politicising the role of the judiciary?
The headline 'Enemies of the People' condemned three High Court judges for ruling that triggering Article 50 was a decision for parliament not the prime minister
94
What name is given to a government that does not have the support of more than half of the MPs in the House of Commons?
Minority government
95
What is a motion of no confidence?
A vote in the House of Commons to decide whether the majority of members support the current government remaining in office
96
What happens to a prime minister if their government loses a confidence vote in the House of Commons?
Constitutional convention is for them to resign or call an election
97
What happened in the UK general election of February 1974 that led to a second election in October of 1974?
There was a hung parliament, with Labour as the largest party but short of an overall majority
98
How big was Labour's Commons majority following the UK general election in October 1974?
3 seats
99
The Labour government had a majority following the October 1974 UK general election, why was this not the case by the 1979 general election?
They lost seats in by-elections (six to the Conservatives and one to the Liberals) and were a minority government by March 1977
100
What accusation is levelled at Callaghan over the timing of his one general election as party leader?
He could have called an election on his own terms in the Autumn of 1978 which opinion polls sugested he may win but he waited for more favourable circumstances and instead lost a confidence vote, being forced to call an election
101
When and what was the 'Winter of Discontent'?
The winter of 1978-9 was marked by large-scale industrial action by mostly public sector workers during a cold winter as the trade unions demanded higher pay increases during a time of high inflation
102
After the end of the Lib-Lab Pact, the Labour government required parliamentary support from other smaller parties. Which issue ended this and prompted the vote of no confidence?
Devolution - although a majority of Scots voted in favour of devolution in 1979, they did not reach the 40% threshold meaning the Scottish Assembly proposed in the Scotland Act of 1978 would not be introduced
103
Why did Callaghan think he stood a better chance of winning an election in 1979 than 1978?
Inflation was falling (although ended up higher in 1979) and the 1978 budget included tax cuts
104
By what margin did the Callaghan government lose the motion of no confidence in March 1979?
A single vote (311-310)
105
As part of their prices and incomes policy, the Labour government expected trade unions to limit pay demands in the late 1970s to what maximum rate of increase?
5%
106
What is meant by the period of purdah before an election?
Ministers remain in position but are obliged not to enact new policy
107
Why is a small parliamentary majority a problem for a prime minister?
It requires huge amounts of party discipline and a small number of rebels can see the government fail to pass its legislative programme
108
What were the main factors in large numbers of Conservative MPs wanting to change leaders in 1975?
His decision to call a snap election in February 1974 in spite of a Conservative majority in response to the 1973-4 miners' strike and a second and third election defeat from four attempts
109
What is meant by inflation?
A general increase in prices and therefore a fall in the purchasing power of money
110
What slogan featured on the iconic Conservative election poster created in 1979 by Saatchi & Saatchi?
Labour isn't working
111
What were Callaghan's stated four domestic priorities at the time of the 1979 general election?
Reduce inflation (manifesto said to 5% by 1982), improve industrial relations, return to full employment and promote freedom
112
The Conservative Party in 1979 were keen to show the incumbent Labour government as what?
Incompetent (and partly responsible for the industrial unrest)
113
Because they had a new (and female) leader, the Labour Party tried to present the decision to vote Conservative in 1979 as what?
A gamble
114
The Conservative campaign in 1979 focused on what broad issue?
The economy
115
The Conservatives managed large swings among the skilled working class (C2, 11%) and semi/un-skilled working class (DE, 9%), perhaps partly because they pledged to allow them to grant what?
The right to buy' (council houses)
116
The Conservatives pledged to 'restore the health of our economic and socal life' by doing what two things?
Controlling inflation and striking a balance between rights and duties of the trade union movement
117
Which three-word headline in The Sun newspaper, though not a direct quotation, portrayed Callaghan, flying back from Guadaloupe as out of touch with everyday life in the UK?
Crisis? What crisis?'
118
Why did Thatcher decline the opportunity to introduce televised debates in 1979?
Her personal unpopularity was an electoral liability, while in spite of his party's predicament, Callaghan's popularity was an asset - he personally polled 20 percentage points above Thatcher
119
Describe the results of the 1979 general election for the Conservative Party.
339 seats won, 63 gained, 1 lost, net gain 62 seats, majority of 43, 43.9% of the vote, up 8.1 pp from October 1974
120
Describe the results of the 1979 general election for the Labour Party.
269 seats won, 4 gained, 54 lost, net loss 50 seats, 36.9% of the vote, down 2.3 pp from October 1974
121
How does the Liberal Party's performance in the 1979 general election show the lack of proportionality in UK elections?
They won 13.8% of the votes but only 11 seats (1.73%) - the Conservatives won 53.39% of the seats on 43.9% of the vote
122
What was notable about the share of the votes cast for the two largest parties in the 1979 general election?
It was the last time until 2017 that they polled over 80% between them (80.8%)
123
How did the make-up of the House of Commons after the 1979 general election show a two-party system
Labour and Conservatives held 608/635 seats between them, leaving the other parties only 27
124
In what sense was the 1979 general election a huge leap forward for female representation and in what sense was it a step backwards?
Although Thatcher was the first female head of government in Europe (and only the 6th ever), only one of 77 new MPs was female and with 19, only the 1951 general election returned fewer female MPs of all elections since 1945
125
How did voter behaviour differ by gender in the 1979 general election?
Men were split more evenly (43% Conservative and 40% Labour) than women (47% Conservative and 35% Labour)
126
Which party did younger voters prefer in the 1979 general election?
Conservative (42% vs. 41% for Labour for 18-24 year olds and 43% vs. 38% for Labour among 25-34 year olds)
127
Were the opinion polls accurate in predicting the outcome of the 1979 general election?
Largely, yes - most put the Conservatives within 3 and 13 percentage points ahead
128
Why might modern observers be surprised by Thatcher's record in government in the years immediately following the 1979 general election?
As many people still had doubts over her, she had to govern modestly, without many of the radical proposals she later enacted
129
What happened to the Labour Party in the years immediately after the 1979 general election?
Callaghan resigned to be replaced by Michael Foot (1980), shifting the party to the left and causing the split of 1981 when the 'Gang of Four' left to found the Social Democratic Party
130
What major change to taxation was introduced by the Thatcher government in 1990 (1989 in Scotland) and what evidence is there that it was deeply unpopular?
The Community Charge ('Poll Tax') replaced domestic rates and there were riots and widespread non-compliance
131
What two major Labour Party policies did Neil Kinnock abandon to bring the party back to the centre ground?
Leaving the EC and unilateral nuclear disarmament
132
What was the economic backdrop to the 1992 general election?
The UK economy was emerging from a deep recession in 1990-91 and at the start of 1992 2.5m people were unemployed
133
How did John Major earn the reputation of Honest John during the 1992 general election campaign?
His willingness to to meet with audiences of real people and answer questions live and on the spot (e.g. in the series of 'Meet John Major' events)
134
What happened on the campaign trail in Luton in March 1992?
While being heckled and barracked, John Major took a megaphone, stood on his 'soapbox' and engaged with the crowd
135
How did the Labour Party undermine their energetic, slick and polished campaign 1992 general election campaign the week before polling day?
They held a presidential-style rally with 10,000 party members at the Sheffield Arena with Kinnock arriving by helicopter - this was poorly received by the media and the electorate
136
What did the Conservatives claim Labour would do to taxes if they won the 1992 general election?
Increase them by 1,000 for the average household
137
What was the Jennifer's Ear campaign?
A Labour Party election broadcast told the story of two girls with an ear problem, one of whom was treated privately and the other had to wait because of underfunding of the NHS
138
How did the Jennifer's Ear campaign backfire for the Labour Party?
There were questions about the authenticity of the story and the media focused more on ethical issues raises than on health policy
139
Which party fought their first general election 1992, winning 20 seats?
Liberal Democrats
140
How did Paddy Ashdown's personal image affect the performance of the Liberal Democrats in 1992?
His military past meant he was seen as able and experienced but revelations of an extra-marital affair undermined his popularity, although he was able to handle this skilfully
141
What were the main themes of the 1992 Conservative manifesto?
Strong foreign policy but a rejection of further European integration, lowering taxation, the right for people to own their own home and further privatisation
142
What image did the Labour Party try to shed in their 1992 manifesto by claiming their policies, including an extra 1bn for the NHS, were fully costed
The party of tax and spend
143
Which economic issue did both the Conservatives and Labour agree was a key prioirity after the 1992 general election?
Reducing unemployment
144
What major reform did John Major consistently reject the need for in 1992 in spite of projections of a hung parliament?
Electoral reform
145
What is a shy Tory?
Someone who although intending to vote Conservative is reluctant to admit it in opinion polls, leading to a tendency for them to underestimate Conservative support
146
How did voting differ by gender in the 1992 general election?
Both men and women favoured the Conservatives (41% of men and 44% of women, compared with 37% and 34% for women)
147
How do the results of the 1992 general election show that social class was more important than in 1997?
More votes were aligned along class lines, with a higher proportion of skilled and wealthier voters voting Conservative, with more working-class people voting for Labour
148
What was the voter turnout in the 1992 UK general election?
77.70%
149
In parliament, what did John Major's government of 1992-97 have in common with the Labour governments of 1974-79?
Elected with a majority, ended with a minority (several Conservative MPs died and the Party did not hold the seat in the by-election)
150
The Conservative Party in the 1990s was divided by which major issue?
Europe (and particularly the single currency with many backbenchers vehemently opposing it, while the government's official line was to 'wait and see')
151
In 1993, who was recorded referring to three of John Major's eurosceptic cabinet ministers as 'bastards'?
John Major
152
Which cutting remark did Tony Blair make in reference to John Major during PMQs that showed his control over the Labour Party?
"I lead my party, he follows his".
153
What did John Major mean when he wanted people to "get back to basics" during the 1997 general election campaign?
Promoting traditional family values
154
How did Major's emphasis on family values in backfire in the 1997 general election campaign?
The tabloid newspapers were keep to publish stories showing Conservative politicians deviating from them (e.g. extra-marital affairs)
155
Which two slogans did the Labour Party use most often in the 1997 general election campaign?
Britain Deserves Better' and 'New Labour: New Britain'
156
How did the Labour Party play to the strengths of John Prescott during the 1997 general election campaign?
He was sent to tour traditional Labour heartlands to shore up the Labour vote from the 'battle bus'
157
Forever associated with the Labour victory, what was the name of the song by D:Ream used as an election anthem in 1997?
'Things Can Only Get Better'
158
Some of Labour's election broadcasts in 1997 were keen to show that Labour were able to draw on support from whom?
Business leaders
159
What was the 'Cash for Questions' scandal and how did it affect the 1997 general election?
Two Conservative MPs were accused of taking money from a lobbyist to ask questions in the House of Commons, as one, Neil Hamilton tried to clear his name in court the scandal rumbled on, attracting further allegations of sleaze
160
On which constitutional issue was there a major difference between the Conservatives and Labour in 1997?
Devolution - Major was adamant that this would end the union, while Blair was able to increase popularity in Scotland in spite of a gaffe comparing a Scottish Parliament to an English parish council
161
Why did the Conservatives' 1997 pledge on a tax allowance for nuclear families make them seem out of touch?
Not only were nuclear families in decline, this supposed that many women would want to transfer their allowance to their husband, when, in truth most women were already in the workforce
162
What was contained in the European Social Chapter which the Consevratives pledged to keep out of, having secured an opt-out when the Maastricht Treaty was negotiated?
Workers' rights
163
In 1997 the Conservatives pledged to cut which two tax rates?
Income tax (basic rate from 23% to 20%) and corporation tax
164
What were the Labour Party's main election pledges in 1997?
Devolution for Scotland and Wales, 'welfare to work' (getting people off benefits and into employment), reduced NHS waiting lists, smaller class sizes (capped at 30 for 5-7 year olds), nursery places for 3 and 4 year olds and no increase in income tax
165
What is the most important thing to note about the key election pledges made in the 1997 Labour general election manifesto?
They were not radical - they had a broad appeal to moderate voters including non-traditional Labour supporters
166
What was the public image of Tony Blair promoted during the 1997 general election campaign?
Young, energetic, charismatic and in control, he was portrayed as part of the newly confident and creative image of 'Cool Britannia'
167
How did the opinion pollsters do in calling the 1997 general election?
They were keen to get it right after 1992 and did - consistently forecasting a Labour landslide, albeit with large difference in the size of the margin - this was, however, not a difficult election to call
168
How did voting patterns by gender change in the 1997 general election?
There was a 10 percentage point swing to Labour among female voters, with 44% of them backing Labour, up from 34% (the Conservative share fell from 44% to 32%)
169
What was the turnout at the 1997 UK general election?
71.40%
170
Why was the 1997 UK general election unusual in voting behaviour based on age?
More voters in all age brackets voted Labour than Conservative, even those 65+
171
How did events undermine Gordon Brown after he replaced Tony Blair in 2007?
His reputation as chancellor was based on economic competency and the global financial crisis and subsequent recession unpicked some of this
172
How did voters and the media regard Gordon Brown compared with Tony Blair?
Less charismatic and less of a leader
173
How did David Cameron compare with previous Conservative leaders?
Younger, more liberal, more centrist
174
What did David Cameron's shadow cabinet have in common with Tony Blair's that may have hampered the former in 2010, but not the latter in 1997?
A lack of ministerial experience following long periods in opposition
175
How did Gordon Brown's 2008 conference speech seek to shore up his position in difficult economic times?
He said 'this is no time for a novice', seeking to show his knowledge of the financial system etc.
176
What did James Purnell, secretary of state for work and pensions, do in 2009 that undermined Gordon Brown?
Resigned in the wake of dismal European election performance, saying that Brown's leadership made a Conservative victory more likely and urging him to step aside
177
In September 2009, which change in the media may have signalled the outcome of the 2010 general election?
The Sun switched allegiance back to the Conservatives
178
What two issues of increasing importance to voters did David Cameron focus on in 2010 to increase his appeal?
Civil liberties and climate change
179
What was Cleggmania?
Such was the personal popularity of Nick Clegg in the first televised election leaders' debate that Liberal Democrat support surged 10 percentage points in the polls, with some putting them ahead of Labour
180
How did Rochdale come to feature heavily in the 2010 general election campaign?
Gordon Brown, with a microphone still attached was heard complaining to aides about a 'bigoted woman', Gillian Duffy a lifelong traditional Labour supporter who asked about immigration and he was forced to visit her and apologise
181
What did the exit poll predict when polls closed and how accurate was it?
A hung parliament, with the Conservatives as the largest party and Liberal Democrat support receding to 2005 levels - this was entirely correct
182
In 2010, what name was given to David Cameron's plan to reduce the size and role of central government with greater focus on localised power and action in the community?
The 'Big Society'
183
What were the Labour Party's main election pledges in 2010?
No increase in income tax rates, a global levy on banks, underperforming schools, hospitals and police forces to be taken over by more successful organisations, tax credits for families with young children and cancer test results within a week
184
What were the Liberal Democrats' main election pledges in 2010?
Increase the personal allowance (on which no income tax is paid) to 10,000, protect the tsate pension, introduce the single transferable vote in elections and scrap university tuition fees - the emphasis was on fairness
185
Summarise the outcome of the 2010 UK general election.
The Conservatives won 307 (+97) seats on 36.1% of the vote (which, discounting the Speaker, left them 20 short of a majority), Labour's 29% won 258 (-91) seats and the Liberal Democrats took 23% of the vote and won 57 seats (-5)
186
How was a government formed after the 2010 UK general election?
The Liberal Democrats held the balance of power and having taken the view that the election result showed a change was needed, Gordon Brown was forced to resign and David Cameron invited the Liberal Democrats to form a coalition government
187
Which parties did younger voters support in the 2010 UK general election?
Support was split very evenly for the three largest parties among 18-24 year olds, but this represents a big increase for the Liberal Democrats, showing the popularity of their tuition fee pledge
188
How did social class influence party support in the 2010 UK general election?
Labour and the Conservatives did well among their traditional class lines, but the Liberal Democrats' support was spread more evenly across all classes
189
What patterns of voter behaviour determined by gender were seen in the 2010 UK general election?
The female vote was split more evenly (Conservatives 36%, Labour 31% and Liberal Democrats 26%) than the male vote (Conservatives 38%, Labour 28% and Liberal Democrats 22%)
190
What was voter turnout in the 2010 UK general election?
65.10%
191
How was the minority Conservative government able to function following the 2017 UK general election?
Via a confidence and supply deal with the Democratic Unionist Party (Northern Ireland)
192
Why was Jeremy Corbyn personally a problem for the Labour Party when discussing Brexit in 2019?
He had previously been a Eurosceptic and refused to say how he would vote in a second referendum, which his party promised (to give the people a 'final say' on a renegotiated Brexit deal)
193
How did allegations of racism influence the 2019 UK general election?
The Labour Party was accused of being anti-semitic and the Conservative Party of being Islamaphobic
194
Other than the actual pledges, why was the Conservative manifesto more likely to appeal to people not heavily interested in politics?
Short, concise and simple
195
Other than Brexit, what else did the Conservatives promise in their 2019 election manifesto?
More spending on the NHS, more police officers, controlled immigration, no tax rises and promoting their 'levelling up' agenda
196
What were the main Labour Party promises in their 2019 election manifesto?
A second referendum, increased spending on the NHS, nationalisation of key industries, increasing the national minimum wage and scrapping universal credit
197
What were the Liberal Democrats' main election pledges in the 2019 general election manifesto?
Preventing Brexit, increasing income tax to pay for the NHS, free childcare, 80% of electricity to come from renewables, recruiting more teachers and legalising cannabis
198
What is MRP short for when used in relation to opinion polling?
Multi-lineal Regression Post-Stratification
199
Why did MRP polling gain credibility ahead of the 2019 general election?
The YouGov MRP poll was the only one to predict a hung parliament
200
What was the impact of the (highly accurate) 2019 YouGov MRP poll?
The Liberal Democrats entered post-mortem mode a fortnight before the election and the incentive to vote Liberal Democrat tactically and Labour went onto the defensive - seeking to hold their own instead of targeting Conservative seats
201
What is the most notable statistic regarding voting by social class in the 2019 UK general election?
The Conservatives won a plurality in every class
202
What is the most notable statistic regarding voting by social class in the 2019 UK general election?
Both men and women voted mainly Conservative
203
What patterns of voter behaviour determined by age were seen in the 2019 UK general election?
Younger voters supported Labour (even up to 35-44) with 62% for 18-24 year olds (vs. 19% Conservative and 9% Liberal Democrat) and 51% for 25-34 year-olds (vs. 27% Conservative, 11% Liberal Democrat)
204
How was region significant for the Conservatives in the 2019 general election?
There was a strong correlation between Conservative support and voting leave in the 2016 referendum - with almost three quarters of seats taken in leave-voting constituencies (294/410)
205
How did the SNP fare in the 2019 general election?
Won 48 seats (+13 from 2017)
206
Identify two broad geographical areas where the Conservatives lost votes in the 2019 general election.
Scotland and London
207
How did 'leave' constituencies vote in the 2019 UK general election?
Less clear pattern - split, but Labour won 40% and SNP won 20%
208
What was voter turnout in the 2019 UK general election?
67.30%
209
Which three newspapers were most overt in encouraging voters to vote Conservative on the day of the 2019 UK general election?
The Sun, Daily Mail and Daily Express
210
The Daily Mirror's front page on polling day 2019 focused on what?
Social issues like homelessness and the victims of Grenfell Tower, as well as people in poverty, the plight of the NHS etc.
211
Why might notable bias in newspapers not be influential in the outcomes of elections such as the UK egenral election of 2019?
The views of the newspapers may reflect their readers' existing views, not seek to shape them
212
How did the 2017 UK general election result show that newspapers may not influence the outcomes of elections?
Only one newspaper endorsed Jeremy Corbyn's leadership (Daily Mirror, although The Guardian did also support Labour), yet Labour took 40% of the vote
213
How did the Conservative Party use paid social media in the 2019 UK general election?
Having tested messaging carefully, they waited until the last five days of the campaign spending 1m (down from 2.1m in 2017) and at one point their advert features on all YouTube videos in the UK.
214
How did the Labour Party use paid social media in the 2019 UK general election?
They spend £726,000 on Facebook advertising
215
How did Liberal Democrat spending on Facebook adverts in the 2019 UK general election compare with the Conservative Party?
The Liberal Democrats spent more
216
Give one possible explanation for the cut in Conservative spending on Facebook in the 2019 general election.
People spending less time scrolling through news feeds
217
Give two ways in which foreign interference via social media may have influenced the 2019 general election.
The photos of a boy on the floor of a Leeds hospital may have come from an overseas account. Leaked trade documents suggesting that the NHS was 'on the table' in UK-US trade talks came from an account originating in Russia
218
In what sense did the use of viral clips during the 2019 UK general election, shared using social media, actually strengthen the role of traditional broadcast media?
Most of the clips originated on television (e.g. Andrew Neil's monologue on Boris Johnson refusing to be interviewed or Nicky Morgan's difficult interview on nursing numbers on Good Morning Britain)
219
How did the Conservative Party use Twitter to contribute to misinformation in the 2019 UK general election?
They rebranded their account to look like an independent fact-checking service in order to check on claims made by the Labour Party
220
In the context of an election, what is meant by rational choice theory?
Voters will vote for the candidate or party that it is in their best interests to support
221
Why did Rishi Sunak's 2024 general election campaign start badly?
He announced the general election in pouring rain and a protestor played Labour anthem 'Things Can Only Get Better' in the background.
222
According to a YouGov poll, what were the three most important issues for voters in the 2024 general election?
The cost of living (45% put it top three and 26% top), health (34%/14%) and the economy in general (32%/16%)
223
According to a YouGov poll, what was the most important issue in the 2024 general election for 27% of Conservative voters and 68% of Reform UK voters?
Immigration
224
What percentage of Labour voters in 2024 gave "To get the Tories out" or "The country needs a change" as their main reasons for supporting the Party in a YouGov poll?
48%+13%=61%
225
What was the key recurring feature of the Liberal Democrats' 2024 general election campaign?
Attention-grabbing stunts involving leader Sir Ed Davey e.g. bungee-jumping and paddle-boarding
226
How did an anonymous senior Conservative describe the Party's 2024 general election campaign?
"The worst in my lifetime"
227
Which flagship Conservative policy announced unexpectedly for the 2024 general election was unpopular with voters?
National service for 18-year-olds
228
For which error of judgement did Rishi Sunak receive a lot of criticism during the 2024 general election campaign?
Leaving a D-Day memorial service early for a TV interview
229
Why did the Conservatives receive criticism over the timing of the announcement of the 2024 general election?
Some Conservative figures had put bets on the date
230
As defeat began to appear more likely, how did the Conservatives change tactics in the 2024 general election campaign?
Encouraging voters to back them to avoid giving Labour a "supermajority".
231
Why was the Labour campaign in the 2024 general election referred to as a "Ming vase strategy"?
It was a very cautious approach doing little to "shatter" their poll lead, like protecting a valuable and delicate vase.
232
What happened to Reform UK's polling data when Nigel Farage announced he would return as leader?
Their projected vote share rose from 11% to 16%.
233
How many seats did each party win in the 2024 UK general election?
Labour 412 (+211), Conservative 121 (-251), Liberal Democrat 72 (+64), SNP 9 (-39), Sinn Fein 7, Reform UK 5 (+5), DUP 5 (-3), Green 4 (+3), Plaid Cymru 4 (+2), SDLP 2, Alliance 1, UUP 1 (+1) and Traditional Unionist Voice 1 (+1)
234
How many independent MPs were elected in the 2024 general election?
Six - Shockat Adam (Leicester South), Jeremy Corbyn (Islington North), Alex Easton (North Down - nothing to do with Gaza!) Adnan Hussain (Blackburn), Ayoub Khan (Birmingham Perry Barr) and Iqbal Mohamed (Dewsbury and Batley)
235
What percentage of the national vote did each UK-wide party get in the 2024 general election?
Labour 34%, Conservatives 24%, Reform UK 14%, Liberal Democrats 12% and Green 7%
236
What was turnout in the 2024 general election?
59.7%
