voting behaviour and the media Flashcards
whart is psephology
the study of elections and trends in voting
what are long term /social factors
they refer to stable and usually unchsnging differences beetween people such as class age gender ethncitiy et
what are short term factors
they refer to volatile and chsngeable influences such as rational decision making ,repuations, scandles or the state of the economy
what classications ar no used to descirbe voters
ab , de
what is class allgnment
the commimtnet to a political party by a particular socila class meaning the yoften vote for that party on the basis of their class
traiditional link beetween class and party support
labour for th wworking class and conservatives for the middle and upper class
what is class dealligment
describes how the impact of social class on voters is loosing significane in recent years
evedicne to support class allignmentin the past and reasons behind it
1964 ge 64% of de voters voted for labour and this ifgure was 53% in 1987 depsite labour receiving a loe vot eshare
tories 56% ab vote share in 1979
reasons are tha tlabours backgroundas a party for working class represanttion eft its historic manifestos to prioritise positive intervention for equality and giving more power ot rtrad eunins whihc had more infuence over and more appeal ot th working class of the past.
evidence of recent class dellaginement
2019 only 39 % of de voted lbour but 41% voted tory
this is largely as the tories under bojo were extreely pro brexit and wanted to grt rid of indessicvenss that corbyn showed, it would benefit them most
also with deindustraiistion the power of trde unions in public secotrs is no longer as relevent to the working class voter base
evidence that class allignment still exist
corbyn got 59% of the 2017 de vote whhc is largely due to corbyns shifting of the party back to old labour
overall does social class impact voting behaviour
some impact however there has been a concrete decline of its influcne in the 21st century highligihting a genreral class dellignment of the british people
has this impact changed over time on class influencing votng behaviour
yes as a shrinking of the working class also has emerged, as time has gone n the concentration of the working class in england has shrunk massively due to gloablisation and thatcherisms privatisation, this caused labour toadap to a new gen of voter base by converging tothe ideolical centre left in order ot win more votes , this has caused a cettain class dellaignment and has led to people genrally voting more positionally
what is th esignifuacnt of labours red wall being coollpased in 2019
northern industraila labour seatsw re lost ot hte tories in the 2019 ge showig how the short term positonal factor of brexit was more signifiacnt than regional allignment
assess the current impact of partian allignment in terms of voting
refers to peoples strong loyaltiesot one party
in 1964 48% of people allinged with a party strongly but in 2019 only 15 % said th esame showing how the uk has expeirienced a sense of partizan delaingment
further evidence of declining partizan allignment is that there has been a decline in the vote share or the two main parties, lab and tories just 57% of vote in 2024 compared to 89% in 1970
trend links to the class deelingment
overall as parties converge at centre partizan alliance has become less significant a s long term voting factor. just 3% of uk pop are memebers of one of the two main parties
how signifant/predicitable is gender in terms o voting intentions
traidionally males more likely to vote labour due to being workers and labours links to male dominated trade unions/ however this is now infiginficant a smen and women are far more equal in the public sector workforce
women rtraiditonally voted tories due to family values but this has alos collapsed as recently labour has prioritesed health social care aswell as education, cons on national security now appeals to men, this is overalla changeble and therefore not apreidcatble or ignificant way of decidig voting intentions 2019 tories more popular amonst men and women but 2024 bothgnedered preferred labour
case study elections to describe genders impact on voting itnentions
1979; cons more poplar for males and females
1997 ; labour more popular amongst both genders
2017; con more popular amongst males but labour amongst females
2019 ; cons more popular for both
2024; labour more ppular for both
clealry the gender lins to party have died nd this factor is not prediciatblw at all
asses the current impact of age on voter intnetions as a long term factor aswella sits predictibility
traditional link beetween younger uspporting labour and olde rsuporting cons whihc has been semi prediccitble and still sigificnat today as labour has and does hold policies favoruble to younger voters such as increased wellfare and proteting the enviroment[ less singificsnt with bojos net zero push]
very predicatble as in 2017 67 % of 18 -24 voters for labour but only 18% for conswrvative but this is different for 65plus voters where 59% voted conservative
this factor is significant as older voters are higher turnout voters aswell as
howver there has been a small shift as tory pop plummeted in 2019 the ge at whihc somone becam emore likle yot vote tory was 39 snd in 2024 was 63 so tories becoming less popular amonsgt middle ages not 100 percent predicstble
case study elections for age dividi in voting intentions
1979; even aonst younger 1824 vote rwsnge tories favoured by 42%
1997 labour more popualr for allla ge groups
2017 big age divide 67% of 1824 voters for labour compared to just 18% 59 % 95 plus voters voted torie in 2017
2019 stark age divide
2024 strk age dividei again where 41% of 1824 voters voted labour and just 8% voted tory
43% of 65 plus voters for try but 23% labour
assess the ethnicity impact for voting intention
a clear dividie is premient with bme voters traditinally being more labour and white voters more liely to vote conservative , stats; 1997, 70% bme voters backed labour
18% backed tories
2017, 65% bme bcked labour verses 21 percent backing tories
2019 , 48% white voters backed tory and 64% bme backed labour
2024; 33 % white voters for labour vs 26% torie
and 46% bme backed labour
labours 2024 vote share did drop drastically due to tesnions with israel hamas conflict in gaza and labours now pro israel stance post corbyn
overall deivide can predicitably be explained by labours pro immigration and anti discirmination stance
many bmes are on lower icnomes so links ot class and then more likley to vote for labours wellfare
still significant and reliable
regional factor of affecting voting analysis
traidiotnally northern and inner city areas more likely to vote labour but sotheurn and rurals often back cons, some of these regional divided still exist PARTLY
lins to social class and etncity where big city jobs attract bmi voters loooking for work aswell as rural areas tending to be more mc and white
however in scotalnd regional dissalignment where despite winning 41 scottish seats in 2010 labour only got one in 2015 amid a rise in scottish nationalism and the snp won 56 of 59 seats
2019 tradiotnal regional votng patterns also collapsed with tories able to break labours red wall in the north winning many of their tradiotnally safe seats from labour
2024 howevee labour won many of these seat abac and won back 39 scottish seats suggesting a significant factor in voting behviou rhas also returned back to a level of predicatbility in 2024
whihc ly factor is argubly most important
age becasue it seems tohave a higher signifcance and rediitibiltiy n votin gwhereas the othe factors geavily rely on eahc other and having been prediciatble in recent eyars due an increase in poitonal issues and ahort term factors,
which lt factors link togeter
social class and ethnicity
ethnicity and region
paetizan alignement and class
what are flaoting voters in the cotnext of short term influcne and what evidence suggests they are on a rise
voters who arent strongly attached to a particular party and can be persuaded to vote for any party they are suseptible to the influence of short term factors on voting behaviour
evidecne of a rise i floating voters comes from stats on partizan deelignement eg in 1964 48% of voters were alligned witha party today that figure is just 15 %
and evicnce suggest that 49 percent of voters voted differently from 2010-17
what is valence politics
also known as competance voting it is a model oof voting beaviour that emphasises that individuals vote based on peples juhdements of the overall compitence of the rival political parties
