Voting Behaviour And The Media Flashcards
(17 cards)
Types of media
The press
Radio
Opinion polls
Online media
Podcasts
Newspapers
The press:
- Physical sales of the media have decreased
- Average reader age has increased
- The Sun (most read paper in Britain) had circulation of 3.9 million in 1997, 3 million in 2010, 1.8 million in 2016, 1.4 million in 2019
- People have moved online
- Newspapers remain important especially as TV, radio and other sources often report from newspapers
- Notable right wing bias across British press, the sun, daily mail, daily telegraph, the times, daily express all support conservatives
- Only daily mirror and Guardian support Labour
- Independent neutral, probably closest to Lib Dem’s
The Radio:
- Small and regular like news updates
- Some channels have much more detailed analysis of news and politics, with interviews challenging politicians
- Also phone-ins which have members of the public debating current events
Online media:
- Not subject to rules and regulations
- Often partisan
- Can be highly inaccurate, “fake news”
- Often operate in echo chambers in which they only hear views similar to own
- Mainstream media lost control of narrative
- Likes of Facebook and Twitter face increased pressure to fact check and moderate content on platforms
Opinion polls:
- Surveys of public opinion that give details about election intentions, feelings about particular policies of events
- Used by media to analyse and make predictions. Also used by parties to evaluate their policies and perceptions of their party, allowing them to change and adapt their policies and image
- Examples of inaccuracy, 2015, 2016 BREXIT referendum and 2017 has led to dismissing their importance
- Can have impact on voting, eg in 2015, Lib Dem’s switch to Conservatives to avoid Labour win
Does the media impact election results?
Does the media impact election results?
- Greater focus on personalities and leaders rather than policy
- Sensationalism and focus on crisis can turn people off politics or lead to negative views
- Labour under Corbyn in 2017 and especially in 2019 highlighted the overwhelming negative treatment they received during the election campaign and how this swung the elections towards the Conservatives
- BBC Laura Kuenssberg was accused of spreading fake news, eg a story about Kabour activists pushing a Tory advisor outside a hospital
- The conservatives accused the BBCS Andrew Neil of political bias after he ‘savaged’ Boris Johnson for refusing an interview with him and also accused Channel 4 of pro Labour bias
Does the media impact election results?
- May’s refusal to take part in 2017 TV debate damaged her and can be seen as a failure
- In 1997, sun claimed to have swung election by changing allegiance to Labour Party
Although, this is probably untrue as it was more a case of paper moving to public mood - Sometimes unseemingly media triumphs can have no real impact on the results
Eg famous I agree with Nick debate in 2010 only led to 1% incense in Lib Dem votes
Factors and theories of voting behaviour
-Regional preferences
-Class
-Age
-Gender
-Ethnicity
-Education
-Rational choice
-Valence issues
-Party leader
Class dealignment and partisan dealignment:
-Class was once seen as a dominant factor in voting, working classes voted labour and upper middle classes voted conservatives
-Class dealignment theory that people no longer vote according to class
-Demonstrated in Thatcher’s success in attracting w/c votes and Blair’s ability to attract m/c votes
-Increasing number of floating and swing voters. Demonstrated in red wall in 2019. Suggest that partisan dealignment is also occurring with more willing to shift who they vote for
Rational choice model:
-People vote for the party who will act in their best interest
-Assume voters will be well informed and choose best option for them
-Everyone will do the same and end up with government best for society
-Idea of self interest appears to be compelling, used to explain 1992 result
-However, idea all voters are carrying out cost/benefit is unlikely
Are age, ethnicity and education accurate predictors of voting behaviour?
Age: younger the voter, the more likely they are to vote labour, the older the voter, the more likely they are to vote conservative. Bad news for labour is that younger voters are less likely to vote
Ethnicity: White favours the Conservatives (39% Conservative, 28% labour in 2015) BAME vote favours labour (65% labour, 23% Tory in 2015)
Education: Conservatives do better with groups with less formal qualifications, liberals and labour tend to do better with more educated groups
Party leader:
-In the UK, the media and public have increasingly focused on party leaders
Do they matter?
Yes: strong leader will win over floating voters, inspiring leader will get out the core voters and activists, a good leader will unify party behind them
No: people are not voting leader, but a local MP, events and policies are more important, core voters remain loyal no matter what
Media focuses on leaders with American style debates, Johnson V Corbyn dominated 2019
1979 general election:
-Labour focused serious questions on its ability to manage economy, had to borrow money from IMF in 1976 and ability to control the unions with ‘Winter Of Discontent in 1979’. Would suggest alliance issues are signicant
-Conservatives ‘Labour isn’t working’ was successful and effective, but confrontational style was unpopular
-Leaders: Thatcher lacked experience and there was reliability concerns to ordinary voters
-Policies: Conservatives offered a radical change with tax cuts and right to buy scheme
1979 electoral results:
Campaign: tories started miles ahead following the office for Labour 1974-9. Both parties made use of the media. Campaign was rather subdued and Callaghan seemed to out perform Thatcher, but Labour was too far behind.
The Result: Conservatives (339 seats, 44%, gained 62 seats) Labour (269, 37%, 50 seats)
Region: Conservatives gained seats all across, but notably in the south
Age: Labour won 18-24 but conservatives all others
Gender: slight preference amongst women for conservatives
1997 general election:
-Conservatives in power since 1979
-An increasingly split party over Europe and damaged by sleaze scandals
-Significant economic issues with unemployment at 3 million
-Sun has swapped allegiance to Labour
-Blair had 5 pledges on crime, NHS, unemployment, VAT and income tax
-Campaign looked to reassure public that Labour had economic competence
-Conservative ‘New Labour, New danger’, backfired and Labour has a more polished and professional campaign
-Blair polled and performed much better than Major, who was seen as weak and boring, whilst Blair was young and charismatic
1997 electoral results:
-Labour (43.2%, 418 seats, gained 147 seats) Conservatives (30.7%, 168 seats, lost 171)
-Regions: Tories lost all seats in Scotland and Wales, only held onto 11 seats in London and lost dominance in the South
-Class: Labour gained across all classes
-Ethnicity: Labour won 70% of BME vote and outperformed Tory white vote
-Age: Conservatives won 65+ age range vote, but Labour won rest
