Voting Behaviour and the Media Flashcards
(34 cards)
What were the 3 key issues of the 2024 General election? Their results in the polling of importance?
- Healthcare (52%)
- Economy (51%)
- Immigration (38%)
Fill in the blank: <br></br><br></br>In 2024, Labour consistently got between __% and __% of each class
Between 32% and 36%
Fill in the blank:<br></br><br></br>In 2024, The Tories got between __% and __% of the vote from all 4 classes
Between 25% and 26%
Who won more of the lower class in 2019? What stat is this linked to? Why is this a link?
The Conservatives.
This is because someone who believes migrants undermine British culture is 33 points more likely to vote for Conservative (or Reform which didn’t exist at the time).
Lower class is often socially Conservative, and seen as Brexit was the key issue of the election, it makes sense that the Tories won more of the lower class.
Fill in the blank:<br></br><br></br>Reform won __% of the white people’s vote and __% of the black people’s vote.
16% and 1%.
Fill in the blank:<br></br><br></br>In 2024, __% of the 65+ voted for Conservative while just __% voted for Labour.
43% and 23%.
Fill in the blank:<br></br><br></br>In 2024, __% of 18-24 year olds voted Conservative while __% voted for Labour.
5% and 41%
Fill in the blank:<br></br><br></br>In 2024, __% of women voted Conservative while __% voted for Labour.
35% and 34%
Fill in the blank:<br></br><br></br>In 2024, __% of graduates voted Conservative while __% voted for Labour.
19% and 43%.
Fill in the blank:<br></br><br></br>In 2024, __% of people with no qualifications voted Reform: the largest education bracket that they got.
18
Interesting note:<br></br><br></br>Fill in the blank:<br></br><br></br>In 2024, __% of people with no qualifications voted Conservative while __% voted for Labour.<br></br><br></br>Why is this interesting?
39% and 28%.<br></br><br></br>It is interesting because it seems that Labour, traditionally the party of the working person with no qualifications, is now losing that to the Conservatives.
What evidence of media bias was there in the 1997 election? What was it like in 1992?
The Sun, The Star, the Guardian, The Independent and The Mirror all backed Labour.
In 1992, many attributed their election defeat to a media bias against Labour.
What was the influence of polling in the 1997 election? What did one poll say? [3]
Little:
* There was almost no polling disagreement over the Labour victory; it was just over the margin
* Labour consistently polled between 43% and 53%
* The Tories meanwhile polled between 28% and 33%
* One poll in 1996 put Labour over 60% and the Conservatives down at 21%
What was the influence of Spin Doctors in the 1997 election?
Alastair Campbell and Peter Mandelson carefully courted journalists and editors from across the various media sources and ensured that they got stories ready-packaged that would put across their message.
What was the influence of gender voting in the 1997 election? What can this be attributed to? [2]
There was a larger increase in the Labour vote amongst women, who increased by 10 points rather than men who only swung by 8 points.
This can be attributed to:
* Increase of working women, particularly in public sector
* The belief that Blair was more attractive than Major (wouldn’t use this in an essay)
* Thatcher was a key factor in the Tory lead on women, and time had passed since her premiership so the impact lessened.
What was the impact of age voting in the 1997 election? [2]
- While the Labour vote increased by 12% amongst 25-34 year olds and 35-44 year olds, it only increased by 4% for 55-64 year olds
- Labour were ahead in every age bracket
- Almost 50% of all 18-44 year olds voted for Labour compared with 44% overall
What was the impact of ethnicity voting in the 1997 election?
- Labour led amongst all ethnic groups, but most narrowly amongst white men (10% lead)
- 82% of black voters supported Labour vs 12% for Conservatives
What was the impact of class voting in the 1997 election? [3]
- ABs: Tory vote dropped 15 points, Labour up 12 points
- Key swing voter: “Mondeo Man” - a middle-class, aspirational, home-owning South-East-based voter targeted by Labour who appealed to economic growth rather than wealth redistribution. CAN LINK TO MANIFESTO AND POLICY
- Link by saying that it led to a TORY COLLAPSE IN LONDON (-14 points there) and more generally in the SOUTH EAST (-13 points there)
What were the Conservative leadership, image and policy failures? [3]
- Major seen as weak and uncharismatic
- Struggled with party divisions, calling his Cabinet “Bastards” and famous “Weak, Weak, Weak” dressing-down
- “Back to Basics” campaign backfired amidst sex and financial scandals
- Cash for Questions Affair and independent Martin Bell defeating Tories as an independent on an anti-sleaze campaign
- Few memorable policies; most memorable was a tax allowance proposal to encourage nuclear families, where a non-working partner could pass their tax-free allowance to their working spouse. Made the Tories look out of touch and failing to adapt to a modern, changing electorate as there were more working women
What were the Labour leadership, image and policy successes in 1997? [4]
- Blair seen as young, charismatic and “cool”
- Dropped Clause IV which was seen as modernising Labour’s image under New Labour
- Pledging no income tax rises to avoid “tax and spend” regulation
- Pro-business image to counter previous anti-business perception and thus attract Mondeo Man
- 5 Key pledges (education, crime, NHS, jobs, tax cuts) targeted core Labour voters and swing voters
- “Things Can Only Get Better” and “Britain Deserves Better” and personal appeal provided a successful campaign front
How many cabinet ministers lost their own seats in 2024?
8
How many seats is it estimated that Reform cost the Tories by splitting the right-wing vote
Up to 80 constituencies
What similarities are there between 1997 and 2024? [3]
- Labour Landslide
- Tories deposed after long time in government
- Conservatives lost, not Labour won
- Labour leader positioning themself in the center to appeal to uncommitted voters and disillusioned Conservatives
What percent of Reform voters previously voted for Johnson in 2019? What does this show and how is it more substantial than the impact for Labour?
25% of Reform voters voted Conservative in 2019, while just 4% voted Labour in 2019. Shows that the Conservatives have done something to lose those votes rather than Labour doing something to win their votes, as they clearly didn’t win some of them.
- Tory protecting state Triple Lock pension plan won them the plurality fo 65+ voters (43%)
- BUT just 36% of 55+ voted for them; in 2019 it was 58%, so it shows that have lost a huge chunk of their older voter base
- No increase in income tax, VAT or corporation tax; trying to appeal to small businesses, but just 22% of people trusted the Tories with the economy (compared to 44% in 2019) and thus this policy failed
- Raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030 was an attempt to claw back some ground against the Reform UK voterbase
- Continue hospital building and recruitment of more doctors and nurses; growth-orientated idea was crucial as healthcare was highest ranked issue in the campaign at 52%
