voting behaviour and the media pt2 Flashcards
what does general election campaign mean
- the time between the dissolution of parliament (calling of election) and the election itself
- lasts 4-6 weeks
- parties release manifestos in this time
- when a party wins the election they claim a mandate (authority from voters) to introduce their manifesto policies
definition of manifesto and mandate
- manifesto - A set of commitments produced by each political party at the start of an election campaign.
- mandate - The authority given by the voters to the winning party at a general election, enabling them to carry out policies outlined in their manifesto.
1979 and 1997 - when campaigns and manifestos WERE and WERENT important
- 1979
- was: Thatcher made Cons campaign ‘labour isnt working’ –> highlighting unemployment issues
- wasn’t: valence issues played larger role bc Labour gov blamed for ‘winter of discontent’ and governing/economic incompetence - 1997
- was: labour ran cautious campaign to maintain lead and Blair reflected his popularity by featuring lots in manifesto
- wasn’t: blair had already repositioned labour to appeal to middle-class voters- long before election campaign
2017 and 2019 - when campaigns and manifestos WERE and WERENT important
- 2017
- was: Cons performed u-turn on manifesto policy regarding health and social care reforms ‘dementia tax’ due to negative public reaction and falling poll ratings
- wasn’t: Brexit was actually most influential factor - overshadowed the campaign and influenced voting patterns much more than manifesto - 2019
- was: labour’s extensive manifesto raised significant questions about affordability and practicality
- wasn’t: cons had strong lead before campaign began regarding Corbyn’s leadership negatively impacting their popularity well before manifesto launched
what is tactical voting
- when they know first choice candidate wont win
- so to influence outcome they vot for someone else
- usually to make the one they hate not win
general examples of tactical voting
- green party supporters may vote for labour to prevent cons from winning bc they know green wont win
- UKIP might have voted for conservatives during brexit to prevent labour from going into power bc they supported remain
reasons why tactical voting IS important
- 2017 GE
- Electoral Reform Society highlighted tactical voting 6.5mill voters –> directly influencing seat outcomes - vote swap websites
- these emerged for tactical voting where ppl swap their votes strategically across constituencies which increases their collective electoral influence –> organised attempts to industrialise tactical voting - 2015 GE BMG research showed tactical voting in 77 constituencies –> directly affecting which party won each seat
reasons why tactical voting IS NOT important
- 2019 GE
- TV less effective bc less lib dems were willing to switch their votes to Labour compared to 2017 therefore labour lost seats that it previously got through tactical voting - Scotland 2019 - tactical voting aimed to limit the sucess of SNP but thie failed and they gained seats
- online campaigns give voters ideas have to tactically vote effectively however in practice it normally does nothing bc voters don’t follow the recommendations consistently
what is turnout
- % of the eligible electorate that cast a vote in an election
why does turnout matters
- dif demographics vote in dif proportions: age, region, class etc
- eg older voters turnout more than younger voters - favours Cons
- turnout changes can shift results in marginal constituencies and therefore affect the national outcome
2 examples of the effects of turnout in elections
2017 GE
- turnout increased in 18-24s ‘youthquake’
- helped labour make unexpected gains especially in student cities like Canterbury (uni town)
- this closed the gap between Cons and Labour bc young voters liked Labour manifesto like abolishing tuition fees
2015 GE
- many middle class and older voters worried abt Labour-SNP coalition
- Cons campaigned ‘a coalition of chaos’ etc
- this boosted turnout amongst Con leaning voters especially in Southern England - Cameron win a narrow majority
what is apathy and disillusionment
apathy - lack of interest
disillusionment - loss of faith in politicians
- Turnout is often affected by disillusion and apathy, with many people believing politics cannot change things
3 factors that affect turnout
- CLOSENESS OF RESULT - if result is predicted to be tight ppl more likely to believe their vote matters –> increases turnout
- EG - 2001 low turnout 59% - it was clear Labour would win - SALIENT ISSUES - if key issues dominate agendas turnout increases especially with youth
- EG - 2017 Labour policies radically dif to Cons (eg tuition fees+spending) hugely encouraged young ppl to vote for Labour - increasing youth turnout - 2-PARTY COMPEITITON -
- EG - 2017 Brexit encouraged voters on both sides to debate which made turnout highest since 1997 (69%)
what are opinion polls
- measure public opinion
- aim to predict election outcomes
- track party popularity
- identify the salience of key issues
- poll results can hugely influence campaigns, media coverage and voter behaviour
arguments FOR opinion polls are influential
- impact voter behaviour by suggesting likely outcome - tactical voters may switch support bsed on polls undesirable outcome
- EG - 1992 poll suggested Labour win which encouraged undecided Con voters to vote Con out of fear of Labour led by Kinnock
- EG - 2015 - closeness in polls made Cons warn about Labour-SNP coalition by campaigning ‘coalition of chaos’ - shifted ppl to vote Con and won - influence party policy - by highlighting voters’ concerns
- EG - polls showed immigration as key issue - influenced Cons to pledge to limit migration to ‘tens of thousands’
arguments which show LIMITS of opinion polls being influential
- inaccurate and misleading
- EG - 2017 - polls suggested comfortable Con win but didn’t pick up Labour ‘youthquake’ which was influenced by youth thinking it was safe to vote for them bc Cons would win - meant Cons only won with narrow majority
- EG - 2016 EU ref - polls said remain would win but it didnt
arguments FOR banning opinion polls
- may distort voter behaviour by encouraging tactical voting
- polls inaccurate and misleading EG - Brexit
- politicians should focus on clear policies rather than poll-based strategies
- some countries restrict or ban polls before elections eg Canada and France
arguments AGAINST banning opinion polls
- violates freedom of expression and information
- it will still happen privately - creating inequality of information bc ppl wouldn’t all be able to afford these sites
- polls give valuable insight for political parties to address public concerns
- polls likely to continue abroad regardless of ban and then ppl access them online
examples of conservative newspapers
the times
the Sunday times
daily mail
the sun
the daily telegraph
examples of labour newspapers
the guardian
financial times
daily mirror
examples of pressure influence
1979
- Sun supported the cons and labour blamed for ‘winter of discontent’
- sun said ‘Crisis, what crisis?’ - suggesting PM Callaghan was out of touch –> swung opinion polls against him
1997
- sun switched to support Labour from Cons
- ‘Sun backs Blair’ –> labour won landslide victory 179 seat majority
2017
- YouGov found 74% of Daily Mail readers voted Cons –> right wing bias influenced outcome
- most 2017 papers were against Corbyn –> Cons won
examples of limits to press influence
- 1979 - the press just reflected the public mood - already against Labour due industrial unrest at time
- 1997 - Suns support for Labour followed public opinion not other way round
- 2017 - press was against Corbyn but he still got seats - doesn’t influence everyone
what is televisual image
how a leader comes across to voters on TV, how confident they appear in front of live audiences and how well they perform in debates with other leaders
examples of when a POSITIVE televisual image of a leader IS IMPORTANT
- Ed Miliband fell off stage in front of live TV audience 2015 –> made him look weak
- May refused to participate in live TV debate and Green party leader Caroline Lucas said ‘the first rule of leadership is that you turn up’
