Voting Behaviour/Turnout

Question 0

Solid red states

Answer 0

TX, GA, KS, SC

Question 1

Solid blue states

Answer 1

MA, NY, CA, IL

Question 2

Swing states

Answer 2

OH, FL, CO

Question 3

Voted for winner in every presidential election in 20th Century (ex 1956, 2008, 2012)

Answer 3

Missouri

Question 4

Voted for winner in last 13 presidential election

Answer 4

OH

Question 5

How many times Obama and Romney visited Ohio in 2012

Answer 5

35

Question 6

Party labels of Democrats

Answer 6

More liberal
Less affluent and minorities
More interventionist
Until 1960s, party of South
Liberal and progressive voters

Question 7

Party labels of Republicans

Answer 7

More conservative
Wealthier WASPs
Limited government
Free market, business, social/fiscal conservatism
Wealthy, white, rural voters

Question 8

How many times since 1952 the party with most support from own identifiers has won

Answer 8

12/16

2004: Kerry 89%, Bush 93%
2008: Obama 89%, McCain 90%
2012: Obama 92%, Romney 93%

Question 9

Stats on Bush Factor (2008/2012)

Answer 9

2008: approval ratings historic low of 27% on Election Day
67% disapproved voted Obama
2012: 53% still blamed Bush economy

Question 10

Two Term Itch

Answer 10

Only twice since Civil War has president from same party as two-term been elected (1876, 1988)

Since 1796, only 9/31 presidents have lost re-election

Question 11

Reverse Coattails Effect

Answer 11

Majority disapproved of Obama’s job performance - 9/10 voted R

4/10 “express opposition to Obama”

Supporters lost - Tom Perriello (D-VA)

Democrats under performed in 83% of CDs compared to 2008

Question 12

Independents

Answer 12

42% self-identify as indy
Since 1980, chose winner in 7/9 presidential elections
2008: Obama 52% v McCain 44%

Question 13

Wealth gap

Answer 13

2008: Obama increased support in every income group
- 10% in less than $15k
- 17% in more than $200k

Question 14

Race

Answer 14

Much more important in US than UK

1980: whites 88% electorate, 2012: 72%
2008: 43% white voted Obama

Question 15

African-Americans

Answer 15

Solid blue
12.6% population
2008: 95% Democrat
1980-2008: never less than 83% D
All 32 majority AA CDs Democrat

Question 16

Southern states Obama won in 2012

Answer 16

VI, FL

Question 17

Importance of Latino vote

Answer 17

Swing voters
2% electorate in 1992, 15.8% 2010
2004: 43% R
2008: 31% R, 66% D
2012: 27% R, 71% D

Question 18

Protestants

Answer 18

2004: 25% evangelical, 80% Bush
2012: 76% Romney

Question 19

Why are Roman Catholics increasingly considered swing voters?

Answer 19

Historically immigrants
Democrats publicly pro-choice
2004: 52% Bush
2012: Obama led by 2%

Question 20

Gender gap

Answer 20

12/13 last presidential elections women gave much more support to D
2012: Obama lost men by 7%, won women by 11%

Question 21

Name two specific incidents during the 2012 elections that significantly impacted the female vote

Answer 21

Romney dismissive "binders full of women"
Todd Akin (Missouri cand) "legitimate rape"

Question 22

Importance of young voters in elections

Answer 22

2008: 66% Obama, highest in over 40 years
2012: 60% Obama, 19% electorate

Question 23

Deep blue region

Answer 23

Solid Northeast
2008/2012: every state voted D
But declining population

Question 24

Importance of population density in presidential elections

Answer 24

Dense = D, Sparse= R 10/11 last elections party who won suburbs won election 2012: Obama 11/15 largest cities

Question 25

Candidate-centric voting

Answer 25

Increasing so in media dominated age 2004: Gore wooden, Kerry elitist 2008: McCain old and grumpy 2012: Romney poor communicator and out of touch

Question 26

Issue-centric voting

Answer 26

1992: Clinton "It's the economy, stupid!" 2004: moral values 2008: economy and change - 2/3 economy most important (Obama 9% lead)

Question 27

Right Track/Wrong Track Perception

Answer 27

2012: Obama defied (46% right v 52% wrong) 2010: 62% wrong track - R won House

Question 28

Performance Voting

Answer 28

Rational Choice Theory Punish poor performance, 1992: Bush Reward good performance: 1996: Clinton

Question 29

2012 presidential campaign

Answer 29

D had campaign infrastructure ready in advance D GOTV 96% AA in OH voted Obama 60% Latinos in FL

Question 30

2008 presidential campaign

Answer 30

First D to win VA since 1964 Obama sound judgment/cool 66% Biden qualified, 38% Palin McCain 72 years old

Question 31

Lowest ever turnout

Answer 31

1996: Clinton v Dole 51.4%

Question 32

Highest ever turnout

Answer 32

63% in 1960

Question 33

2000 election turnout

Answer 33

54.3% Bush v Gore | Unexciting

Question 34

2004 election turnout

Answer 34

60.1% Iraq D angry about 2000

Question 35

2008 election turnout

Answer 35

61.7% Obama effect First presidential election where convenience voting was readily available Latino/AA turnout 2% increase

Question 36

2010 election turnout

Answer 36

42% (highest in midterm) First time since 1930s that more R than D voted in primaries Angry about Obamacare, stimulus etc R turnout highest since 1970

Question 37

2014 election turnout

Answer 37

37% Young only 13% of electorate (-6 2012) AA 12% Latino 8%

Question 38

Difference in primary participation

Answer 38

1967: 12m 2008: 58m

Question 39

Turnout by state

Answer 39

``` New Hampshire (early): 53% Louisiana (late): 17% ```

Question 40

Reasons for turnout decrease

Answer 40

``` Disillusionment Apathy/hapathy Narrow choice Negative campaigning Partisan dealignment ```

Question 41

1972 split-ticket voting

Answer 41

CRA Conservatives vote Nixon and D Congress 44% of CDs split

Question 42

1984 split-ticket voting

Answer 42

44% "Reagan Democrats" Resorting of parties taking place More polarised

Question 43

2008 split-ticket voting

Answer 43

19% - second lowest since 1952 83 split CDs 34 "Obama Republican"

Question 44

2012 split-ticket voting

Answer 44

6% 26 CDs Romney wins 93% R CDs Obama wins 96% D CDs