Week 10: Long-Term Policy Planning Flashcards
(13 cards)
What is foresight in policy evaluation?
Foresight explores possible futures using trends, Delphi methods, and scenario building to inform long-term policy decisions.
What is the STEEPED framework used for?
It assesses trends across Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, Ethical, and Demographic dimensions for a 360-degree policy analysis.
How might robotics adoption at 90% in manufacturing be evaluated using STEEPED?
By examining economic (job displacement), social (skills gaps), technological (innovation), and environmental (energy use) impacts.
What is the Futures Wheel tool?
A visual brainstorming method to map direct (first-order) and indirect (second/third-order) consequences of a policy, including unintended effects.
How could a ban on cow farming to reduce emissions be analyzed with the Futures Wheel?
First-order: Collapse of beef/dairy industries. Second-order: Rural economic decline, plant-based demand surge. Third-order: Cultural resistance, lab-grown meat innovation.
What are scenarios in foresight analysis?
Descriptions of possible futures based on trends (STEEPED) or high-uncertainty factors (orthogonal scenarios) to test policy resilience.
What distinguishes orthogonal scenarios?
They focus on highly uncertain, high-impact factors (e.g., AI governance clashes) to explore radically divergent futures.
How are “What if?” scenarios used in policymaking?
To prepare for uncertainties like black swan events (e.g., internet failure) by brainstorming impacts (economic/societal) and solutions (decentralized infrastructure).
What economic impacts might an internet failure cause?
Disrupted monetary transactions, banking access, and supply chains.
What societal impacts could follow an internet failure?
Social isolation, misinformation spikes, and halted education/health services.
What policy solutions could mitigate internet failure risks?
Decentralizing infrastructure, diversifying platforms, and implementing ICT security certifications.
How does foresight complement traditional tools like CBA?
CBA quantifies short-term costs/benefits; foresight adds long-term, holistic analysis accounting for uncertainty and ethics.
Why is ethics important in foresight and CBA?
Quantitative tools (CBA) may overlook equity or cultural impacts; foresight ensures broader stakeholder and moral considerations.
