Week 11+12+13 (M4) Flashcards

Question

Base rate neglect | + what heuristic do we use instead

Answer 1

we tend to use representativeness and ignore the base rate You need to ask: Out of how many? ex. the bank teller feminist thing

Answer 2

If given JUST the base rates, people use them effectively. If given JUST the diagnostic information, people use it (following categories, stereotypes, heuristics...) BUT give BOTH base rates and diagnostic information, people tend to ignore the base rates

Answer 3

System 1 = heuristics System 2 = less biased but more effortful

Answer 4

- Framing effects - Triggering statistical knowledge Training in statistical reasoning works

Answer 5

Testing and adjusting our beliefs

Answer 6

Logic (ideal) – Logical reasoning – Rational thinking – Utility theory What people do – Biases – Heuristics – Errors – Irrational thinking – Pragmatic reasoning

Answer 7

- overconfidence - belief perseverance - confirmation bias

Answer 8

Both experts and novices are more confident in their judgments than is justifiable

Answer 9

We don’t want to let go, even in the face of strong evidence

Answer 10

people test their hypotheses by choosing tests that confirm them, rather than tests that would disconfirm them

Answer 11

A form of deductive reasoning consisting of a major premise, a minor premise, and a conclusion either valid or invalid ex. human mortality thing

Answer 12

* These begin with an “IF – THEN” structure * If P, then Q ex. Modus Ponens and Modus Tollens are two examples of conditional syllogisms

Answer 13

affirming the antecedent Major premise: If antecedent, then consequent Minor premise: antecedent Conclusion: consequent

Answer 14

denying the consequent Major premise: If antecedent, then consequent Minor premise: NOT consequent Conclusion: NOT antecedent

Answer 15

People are usually pretty good at modus ponens Much worse at modus tollens – people find it harder to see why the conclusion follows

Answer 16

invalid If P, then Q NOT P = NOT Q “If P” does not say anything about “If NOT P”

Answer 17

invalid: If P, then Q Q = P P may not be the only condition for Q valid: If AND ONLY IF P, then Q Q = P bidirectional: P implies Q, and Q implies P

Answer 18

Each card has a letter on one side and a number on the other side. Which cards must be turned over to check the following rule?... “If a card has a vowel on one side, it must have an even number on the other side.” flip A and 7

Answer 19

General schemata rather than "if-then" rules - Permission - Cause and effect

Answer 20

No they're terrible

Answer 21

- If people believe the conclusion, they tend to think that the argument is valid. - If people don’t believe the conclusion, they tend to think that the argument is invalid.

Answer 22

- Some conclusions “seem” more appropriate, given the context. - If the premises use the word “all”, people are more likely to accept a conclusion that also uses the word “all.”

Answer 23

People often treat: All A’s are B as equivalent to... All B’s are A People often treat: Some A’s are not B as equivalent to... Some B’s are not A

Answer 24

* Formal training in logic does not help much * Training in the use of reasoning schemata does help – triggers a pragmatic reasoning schema

Answer 25

- What do you value? - How does each option move you towards what you want? - Every choice has costs and benefits Maybe just pick the option that minimizes costs and maximizes benefits

Answer 26

Sometimes costs and benefits are really difficult to compare ex. good porch vs. closer to bus line Uncertainty ex. possible that housemates might add another roommate next year

Answer 27

Figure out the SUBJECTIVE UTILITY of each factor - What value does it have for YOU - Subjective utility can also be negative (“disutility”) To make a decision, sum the subjective utilities of each choice. Higher utility score wins.

Answer 28

Expected utility = (probability of outcome) x (utility of outcome) probability times value

Answer 29

issue with "ideal" utility theory "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" People prefer sure gains aren't "utility maximizers"

Answer 30

non-transitive relationships can be worked on even though they are irrational according to UT

Answer 31

Would you drive 30 minutes across town to save $20 on a $10,000 car? Would you drive 30 minutes across town to save $20 on a $100 vacuum cleaner?

Answer 32

isn't the same as dollar value e.g. the psychological difference between $0 and $10,000 is much larger than between $1,000,000 and $1,010,000

Answer 33

If dealing with possible losses, decision makers are RISK SEEKING - maybe you could avoid the loss If dealing with possible gains, decision makers are RISK AVERSE - hold on to what you have (c.f. certainty effect)

Answer 34

It’s more about value assigned to gains and losses We are less willing to gamble with profits than losses Choice varies by framing the problem as a gain or loss

Answer 35

Given a choice between avoiding loss and acquiring gains: Strongly prefer to avoid losses

Answer 36

Don’t want to give up something you already own According to Utility theory, it makes no sense to pay attention to sunk costs

Answer 37

Rational = max. utility Justifiable = reason-based choice

Answer 38

make a choice that is good enough rather than the optimal decision optimal decision may require more time or more effort than the decision is actually worth

Answer 39

avoiding regret is a big motivation (might contribute to the certainty effect)

Answer 40

We like things to get better over time ex. hand in cold water thing

Answer 41

Game theory (Nash Equilibrium): defecting is dominant strategy because it has a slightly higher payoff. Overall, the best outcome is mutual cooperation. People show a systematic bias toward cooperation

Answer 42

There is a community of shepherds whose sheep graze on a common ground. If each herder restrains the number of sheep feeding on the commons, then the commons will not become exhausted from overgrazing. Rational choice: compete for the resource Better than rational choice: cooperation to conserve the resource

Answer 43

- You are not always presented with choice between options - You frequently have to CREATE those options yourself

Answer 44

- general problem solving method - search through a "problem space" ex. like a maze

Answer 45

number of steps 2^n - 1 n = number of disks

Answer 46

operations: the relevant things you can do problem space: the SET of all the relevant things you can do

Answer 47

1. Initial state: – knowledge and resources you already have – The “givens” 2. Goal state: – Where do you want to end up? 3. Operators: – tools and actions that can change your current state – Means of transforming conditions 4. Path constraints: – limitations on what moves you can make – obstacles

Answer 48

Lay out the entire problem space - go through each possible solution takes way too much time

Answer 49

1. hill-climbing 2. means-end analysis 3. working backwards 4. building mental models 5. representation 6. analogy

Answer 50

always go uphill - take one step closer to your goal problem: sometimes solving problems requires that you take steps away from your goal

Answer 51

What is the difference between my current state and my goal? how to reduce that distance breaks the problem into more easily solvable sub-problems involves both forward and backward search

Answer 52

start at a goal, work backwards from there ex. water lillies covering lake Generally, working backwards is helpful when the number of directions backward from the goal state is small, and the number of possible directions from the initial state forward is very large. It can also provide a “new” perspective when you are stuck.

Answer 53

Sometimes, solving a problem requires finding a different REPRESENTATION of the problem - can use mental models to help reason out categorical syllogisms (picture it)

Answer 54

- Solving a problem requires problem representation and problem execution The wrong representation can interfere with analysis: - Incomplete information - Computational complexity - Somethings easy to solve in one format are difficult to solve in another

Answer 55

- Ability to draw analogies is a central intellectual tool Challenges: - Spontaneous, uninstructed use of analogies seems to be quite rare - A suitable analogy isn’t always obvious - Sometimes you need to find one yourself = difficult - The analogy has to connect with the deep structure of the problem, not just surface properties ex. tumor

Answer 56

- Memory advantage leads to problem solving advantage - Being able to see the larger structure also helps problem solving - Experts tend to think about the deep structure of problems more than novices do - Experts are better at knowing what information is irrelevant - not following so many blind alleys - Experts are also good at CHUNKING into meaningful bits

Answer 57

MORE information DIFFERENT information - Knowledge of patterns (ex. Symptoms all connected to one disease), etc. CROSS-REFERENCED information - More connections linking information in memory AUTOMATIZED procedures - Autopilot frees up other mental resources

Answer 58

- Experts sometimes don’t remember details of problems very well - Understood for gist, forgot the rest - More likely to make INTRUSION errors (assumptions based on prior knowledge) - Experts are no better than novices outside of their domain

Answer 59

Stuck or rigid in one way of thinking about an object, and what its function is Ex. tack, match, candle task

Answer 60

- Most problem spaces are huge - larger than we even realise - Don’t realise how huge they are because of the heuristics and problem solving sets we use - There are costs and benefits to problem solving sets

Answer 61

“attitude” = general term for rigidity in problem solving based on starting assumptions about a problem (helpful or harmful)

Answer 62

1. Preparation 2. Incubation 3. Illumination/insight 4. Verification

Answer 63

- Might still be wrong - Even though you think you’re getting closer and closer

Answer 64

Divergent thinking - Think of ideas that are not normally associated Finding new connections between ideas - Similar to divergent thinking - Remote associations task … Underlying idea - creativity is based on coming up with new, unanticipated approaches to a problem

Week 11+12+13 (M4) Flashcards

(89 cards)