week 3: crises Flashcards
4 important financial criseses before 1900s?
- The Crisis of 33 AD
- The Great Debasement (1544-1551)
- Tulip Mania 1637
- South-Sea / Mississippi Bubbles (1719-1720)
The Liquidity Crisis of 33 AD
In 33 AD, under Emperor Tiberius, regulatory measures on real estate loans and reduced public spending led to a money shortage and credit contraction, threatening Rome’s financial system. Banks, owned by the rich individuals, faced issues as borrowers sold land to comply with regulations, causing real estate prices to plummet. Runs on banks worsened liquidity issues. The economy was saved from total collapse by injecting interest-free loans.
What is debasement?
intentionally devaluing currency
The Great Debasement (1544-1551)
Throughout history, government have rely on debasement of their
currencies in order to financially gain at the expense of the citizens.
Governments historically devalued their currencies by reducing the precious metal content in coins, allowing them to produce more currency but diminishing its purchasing power. Henry VIII and Edward VI oversaw a series of such devaluations from 1544 to 1551, benefiting the government at the expense of citizens’ purchasing power.
Tulip Mania 1637
Originally, demand for the flower picked up as a result of scientific
interest in the bulbs. However, from around 1630 bulbs became
attractive financially. In 1636 and early 1637 there was a frantic
trade in tulips.
Countless people with no prior interest in the flower invested in
tulips, some of them even putting up their homes as collateral so that they can get funds to finance their investment.
In February 1637 the market crashed with adverse consequences for many investors.
South-Sea / Mississippi Bubbles (1719-20)
Both events were preceded by a new type of financial innovation; namely, the exchange of government debt for private equity.
In Britain, the South-Sea Company gained monopoly rights in South Seas trade in exchange for assuming government debt, while in France, John Law’s bank supported government finances by acquiring the Mississippi Company, which held exclusive colonization rights in Louisiana.
Both the South-Sea Company and the Mississippi Company issued shares to cover the corresponding government debts.
The shares of the former rose dramatically during the first half of 1720, remained flat till September and then crashed.
The shares of the latter rose fast in 1719 and early the following year. The bubble burst in the Spring of 1720.
POST 1900 FC’s? [4]
- Crash of 1929 / Great Depression
- Black Monday, 19 October 1987
- Southeast Asian Twin Crisis 1997
- DotCom Bubble 2000
What Happened Before the great depression?
In the 1920s, a speculative boom fueled by rapid economic growth led to a surge in all sectors of the economy.
Profits of 536 manufacturing and trading companies increased by 36% in the first half of 1929, enticing many Americans to heavily invest in the stock market.
With investors borrowing $8.5 billion to invest in stocks, share prices soared, creating a speculative bubble.
However, the stock market peaked on September 3, and as economic indices began to decline, investor confidence fell.
Irving Fisher commenting on stock prices on 16 October 1929:
“…reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.’
24 October 1929 – ‘Black Thursday’ the Dow Jones declined by _%
2%
28 October 1929 – ‘Black Monday’ Dow Jones declined by __%
13
29 October 1929 – ‘Black Tuesday’ Dow Jones declined by a further __%
12
July 1932 – the market reaches its nadir; total decline __%
89%
November 1954 – Dow Jones __________
November 1954 – Dow Jones reaches its 1929 peak
What happened after the Great Depression?
A collapse in aggregate demand, driven by a lack of consumer + investor confidence and a drop in aggregate liquidity
The effect on the labour market was disastrous
More than 20% unemployment estimated
What happened on Black Monday?
19 October 1987: BLACK MONDAY
**A decline of more than 20% in various U.S. stock market indices. **
Causes of decline on Black Monday generally?
Problems with the microstructure (organization, operations) of these markets and not with economic fundamentals.
What were the three main problems identified with the microstructure causing the Black Monday decline?
- Margin Calls
- Program Trading
- Information Acquisition
What are Margin Calls, why was it a problem?
Investors can borrow funds to buy shares by posting the shares as collateral. When there is a drop in the price of shares the value of the collateral decreases. Lenders will then ask borrowers to repay part of the loan. During a crisis margin calls can exaggerate any already in place liquidity problems.
What is Program Trading why was it a problem?
A great bulk of trading is automatically done by computers that have been programmed, for example, to sell after prices have dropped below a certain level.
What are Information Acquisition Problems?
Markets work efficiently when trades reflect new information. However, during a panic traders follow the actions of other traders thus reinforcing the decline of prices which thus cease to reflect economic fundamentals.
Southeast Asian Twin Crisis | 1997
For several decades before the crisis, economies in Southeast Asia experienced high economic growth + moderate inflation.
From second half of 1980s, also had increases in stock prices and land values.
Furthermore, many banks and corporations in the region relied on short-term foreign loans for financing their operations.
What was the Crisis in Thailand?
As a result of a series of external shocks, e.g. the devaluation of the Chinese remnimbi and the Japanese yen and the sharp decline in semiconductor prices → export revenues sharply dropped → led to slowdown of economic activity + severe declines in asset prices.
In Thailand, these developments put downward pressure in the
foreign exchange market ending with the collapse of the Thai baht in July 1997.
What does regional contagion have to do with the thailand currency crisis?
The events in Thailand were followed by a wave of currency depreciations and stock market declines affecting the other economies in the Southeast Asian region.