Week 6 - Planning and Decision Making 2

Question 1

In today’s business world is quiet tough as trends and preferences of
customers are constantly changing. In addition, rapidly growing of
technology have greatest impact to changes aligning of the business
strategies. An underlying theme of discussing strategic management or the
tools and techniques of business planning can lead to high organizational
performance.

Answer 1

read

Question 2

is the process through which managers formulate and implement
strategies geared to optimizing goal achievement, given available
environmental and internal conditions.

Answer 2

strategic management

Question 3

set of managerial decisions and actions that determines the long-run
performance of an organization. It entails all of the basic management
function-planning, organizing, leading, and controlling

Answer 3

strategic management

Question 4

 exploit and create new and different opportunities for tomorrow;
 long-range planning, in contrast, tries to optimize for tomorrow the
trends of today.

Answer 4

Purpose of strategic management

Question 5

Strategic Management is important to organizations because it

Answer 5

1. helps organizations identify and develop a competitive advantage, a
   significant edge over the competition in dealing with competitive
   forces.
2. Provides a sense of direction so that organization members know
   where to expend their efforts.

Question 6

The determination of the mission or purpose and the basic long-term
objectives of an enterprise, followed by the adoption of courses of action and
allocation of resources necessary to achieve these aims

Answer 6

strategy

Question 7

Stages in planning process:

Answer 7

1. Strategy Formulation
2. Strategy implementation
3. Strategy evaluation

Question 8

Strategy Formulation includes:

Answer 8

 developing a vision and mission,
 identifying an organization’s external opportunities and threats,
 determining internal strengths and weaknesses,
 establishing long-term objectives,
 generating alternative strengths,
 choosing particular strategies to pursue.

Question 9

requires the firm to establish annual objectives,
devise policies, motivate employees, and allocate resources so that
formulated strategies can be executed. These are:
 developing a strategy-supportive culture,
 creating an effective organizational structure
 redirecting marketing efforts,
 preparing budgets,
 developing and utilizing information systems,
 linking employee compensation to organizational performance.

Answer 9

strategy implementation

Question 10

Strategy Implementation requires the firm to establish annual objectives,
devise policies, motivate employees, and allocate resources so that
formulated strategies can be executed. These are:

Answer 10

 developing a strategy-supportive culture,
 creating an effective organizational structure
 redirecting marketing efforts,
 preparing budgets,
 developing and utilizing information systems,
 linking employee compensation to organizational performance

Question 11

the final stage in strategic planning. Managers need
to know when particular strategies are not working well, strategy evaluation
is the primary means for obtaining this information.

Answer 11

strategy evaluation

Question 12

Three fundamental strategy evaluation activities are constantly changing:

Answer 12

1. reviewing external and internal factors that the bases for current
   strategies,
2. measuring performance;
3. taking corrective actions.

Question 13

needed because success today is no guarantee of
success tomorrow.

Answer 13

strategy evaluation

Question 14

a process undertaken by an organization to develop a
plan for achievement of its overall long-term organizational goal.

Answer 14

strategic planning

Question 15

 Every organization needs a mission, which defines the purpose of the
organization. What is the organization’s reason for being in business?
 It’s also important to identify the organization’s current objectives
and strategies, as well.

Answer 15

Mission and objectives

Question 16

 It is important to analyze the environment because, it defines
management’s strategic option.
 The environmental scanning includes the following components:
o Internal analysis of the firm
o Analysis of the firm’s industry (task environment)
o External macro environment (PEST analysis)

Answer 16

environmental scanning

Question 17

 Given from the environmental scan, the firm should match its
strengths to the opportunities that it has identified, while addressing
it weaknesses and external threats.
 To attain superior profitability, the firm seeks to develop a
competitive advantage over its rivals.
 A competitive advantage can be based on cost or differentiation (or
formulating strategy such as (Michael Porter’s Strategy)

Answer 17

strategy formulation

Question 18

 The selected strategy is implemented by means of programs, budgets,
and procedures.
 Implementation involves organization of the firms’ resources and
motivation of the staff to achieve objectives

Answer 18

strategy implementation

Question 19

The implementation of the strategy must be monitored and adjustments
made as needed. Evaluation and Control consists of the following steps:

Answer 19

Evaluation and control consists of the following steps:
1. Define parameters to be measured
2. Define target values for those parameters
3. Perform measurements
4. Compare measured results to the pre-defined standard
5. Make necessary changes.

Question 20

s the process of developing assumptions about the future
that relevant to the predicted level of certain planning variables (i.e.,
company future sales).
 Qualitative forecasting uses expert opinions.
 Quantitative forecasting uses mathematical and statistical analysis.
 All forecast rely on judgment.
 Planning involves deciding on how to deal with the implications of
a forecast.

Answer 20

Forecasting

Question 21

involves identifying alternative courses of
action that can be implemented, if and when an original plan proves
inadequate because of changing circumstances.
 Contingency plans anticipate changing conditions.
 Contingency plans contains trigger points

Answer 21

Contingency planning

Question 22

a long-term version of contingency planning
that involves identifying several alternative future scenarios or states of
affairs that may occur, and then making plans to deal with each scenario
should it actually occur.
 Plans made for each future scenario. Increases organization’s
flexibility and preparation for future shocks.

Answer 22

scenario planning

Question 23

a technique that makes use of internal and external
comparisons to better evaluate current performance and identify possible
actions to improve the future. Adopting best practices of other
organizations that achieve superior performance.

Answer 23

benchmarking

Question 24

this is one of the most widely used planning tools
in business. The technique can be used for analyzing the effect on profits
of different pricing strategies or different alternatives in incurring costs.

Answer 24

Break-even analysis

Question 25

a quantitative tools for determining the optimal combination of resources and activities. it can be used for production scheduling, allocation of marketing personnel to territories or allocation of production inputs to produce an item at minimum cost

Answer 25

linear programming

Question 26

are mathematical representations of some aspect of a business operation. Simulation models are used when the planning variables, as well as their interrelationships, are so numerous and complex that it is difficult to analytically assess the net effect of a change in one or a number of the variables involved. Simulation is useful in complex situations such as predicting product demand considering the effect of changes in the pricing policies of competitors, or the effect of a change in foreign exchange rate on company profits considering changes in minimum wage and inflation rates.

Answer 26

simulation model

Question 27

are persons who take responsibility for leading and coordinating the planning function for the total organization or one of its major components.

Answer 27

staff planners

Question 28

Staff planners responsibilities include:

Answer 28

 – Assisting line managers in preparing plans.  – Developing special plans.  – Gathering and maintaining planning information.  – Assisting in communicating plans.  – Monitoring plans in progress and suggesting changes.

Question 29

requires that the planning process include people who will be affected by the plans and/or will help implement them. Benefits of participation and involvement:  Promotes creativity in planning.  Increases available information.  Fosters understanding, acceptance, and commitment to the final plan.

Answer 29

Participation and involvement

Question 30

was first described by Peter Drucker and consists of four elements: o Goal specify o Participative decision making o Explicit time period o Performance feedback  MBO makes objectives operational through the process by which they cascade down through the organization

Answer 30

Management by Objectives (MBO)

Question 31

what are the Strengths of MBO

Answer 31

1. Aids coordination of goals and plans 2. Helps clarify priorities and expectations 3. Facilitates vertical and horizontal communications 4. Fosters employee motivation

Question 32

what are the Weaknesses of MBO

Answer 32

1. Tends to falter without strong continual commitment from top management. 2. Necessities considerable training of managers 3. Can be misused as a punitive device. 4. May cause overemphasis of quantitative goals.

Question 33

what are the MBO Process

Answer 33

BO Process 1. Superior communicate to subordinate the higher organizational goals and the expected subordinate accomplishments; 2. Superiors discuss with subordinate 3. Subordinates goals and both parties should agree on a set of objectives. 4. Resources required to attain goals 5. Periodic reviews should be conducted to monitor performance and to discuss reasons for deviations of actual performance from targets. 6. Manager or superior discusses evaluation of subordinate the reward given or punishment.

Question 34

The selection of a course of action from among alternatives.

Answer 34

decision making

Question 35

the core of planning. A plan cannot be said to exist unless a decision-a commitment of resources, direction, or reputationhas been made.

Answer 35

decision making

Question 36

________ process managers respond to opportunities and threats by analyzing options, and making decisions about goals and courses of action.

Answer 36

Decision making

Question 37

Decisions in response to opportunities:.

Answer 37

Managers respond to ways to improve organizational performance.

Question 38

Decisions in response to threats::

Answer 38

Occurs when managers are impacted by adverse events to the organization.

Question 39

What are the Types of Decision Making

Answer 39

Programmed (structured) Decision * These decisions are made by operational managers. * Used for structured or routine work. * Managers have made decision many times before. * There are rules or guidelines to follow. * It involves operational issues and has a very short time effect. Example: Deciding to reorder office supplies Non-Programmed (Unstructured) Decision * The decision are made by senior management. * Used for unstructured, novel, and ill-defined situations of a nonrecurring nature. It is a non routine type decision * No rules to follow since the decision is new. * These decisions are made based on information, and a manager’s intuition, and judgment.* It includes strategic issues and long term effect of decision. Example: should the firm invest in a new technology? * Semi-Programmed (Semi-Structured) Decision * Decisions are made by middle management. * It is both routine and non routine type decisions. * Usually it gives a clear cut solution of a problem. * There is both structured and unstructured procedure for decision making. Example: Allocate resources to managers; develop a marketing plan.

Question 40

What are the Decision Making Process Steps

Answer 40

1. Recognize need for a decision: Managers must first realize the need for which a decision must be made. 2. Frame the problem: Managers must frame problem for which decision is to be made. 3. Generate & assess alternatives Generate alternatives: managers must develop feasible alternative courses of action.  If good alternatives are missed, the resulting decision is poor.  It is hard to develop creative alternatives, so managers need to look for new ideas. Evaluate alternatives: what are the advantages and disadvantages of each alternatives?  Managers should specify criteria, then evaluate. 4. Choose among alternatives Managers rank alternatives and decides. While ranking, all information needs to be considered. Recognize need for decision Frame the problem Generate & asses alternatives Choose among alternatives Implement chosen alternative Learn from feedback 5. Implement chosen alternative Managers must now carry out alternative.  Often a decision is made and not implemented. 6. Learn from feedback Managers should consider what went right and wrong with the decision and learn for the future.  Without feedback, managers never learn from experience and might repeat the same mistake.

Question 41

Managers must first realize the need for which a decision must be made

Answer 41

Recognize need for a decision

Question 42

Managers must frame problem for which decision is to be made

Answer 42

frame the problem

Question 43

Generate alternatives: managers must develop feasible alternative courses of action.  If good alternatives are missed, the resulting decision is poor.  It is hard to develop creative alternatives, so managers need to look for new ideas. Evaluate alternatives: what are the advantages and disadvantages of each alternatives?  Managers should specify criteria, then evaluate.

Answer 43

Generate and assess alternatives

Question 44

Managers rank alternatives and decides. While ranking, all information needs to be considered.

Answer 44

choose among alternatives

Question 45

Managers must now carry out alternative.  Often a decision is made and not implemented.

Answer 45

Implement chosen alternative

Question 46

Managers should consider what went right and wrong with the decision and learn for the future.  Without feedback, managers never learn from experience and might repeat the same mistake.

Answer 46

learn from feedback

Question 47

what are the Evaluating Alternatives

Answer 47

Is it legal? Managers must first be sure that an alternative is legal both in this country and abroad for exports. Is it ethical? The alternative must be ethical and not hurt stakeholders unnecessarily. Is it economically feasible? Can our organization’s performance goals sustain this alternative? Is it practical? Does the management have the capabilities and resources to do it?

Question 48

Suggest decision makers use heuristics to deal with bounded rationality.  A heuristic is a rule o thumb to deal with complex situations.  If the heuristic is wrong, however, then poor decisions result from its use

Answer 48

cognitive biases

Question 49

Sometimes when there seem to be too many alternatives to choose from, managers rely on their own decision rules. These decision rules are called heuristics, and they allow complex judgments to be made more simply. Because of theses heuristics, decisions may vary with the characteristics or biases of the decision maker. Individual biases are product of each decision maker’s cognitive structures and are necessary to prevent decision makers from becoming paralyzed when analyzing extensive data. The values and cognitive biases of the organization’s top managers are seem in the organization’s strategies and effectiveness.

Answer 49

cognitive biases

Question 50

can result from use of an incorrect heuristic.  These errors will appear over and over since the rule used to make decision is flawed.

Answer 50

systematic errors

Question 51

what are the Types of Cognitive Biases

Answer 51

 Prior hypothesis bias: manager allows strong prior beliefs about a relationship between variables and makes decisions based on these beliefs even when evidence shows they are wrong.  Representativeness: decision maker incorrectly generalizes a decision from a small sample or one incident.  Illusion of control: manager over-estimates their ability to control events.  Escalating commitment: manager has already committed considerable resource to project and then commits more even after indicates problems.

Question 52

manager allows strong prior beliefs about a relationship between variables and makes decisions based on these beliefs even when evidence shows they are wrong.

Answer 52

Prior hypothesis bias

Question 53

decision maker incorrectly generalizes a decision from a small sample or one incident.

Answer 53

Representativeness

Question 54

manager over-estimates their ability to control events

Answer 54

Illusion of control:

Question 55

manager has already committed considerable resource to project and then commits more even after indicates problems.

Answer 55

Escalating commitment

Question 56

what are the Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative

Answer 56

When selecting from among alternatives, managers can use three basic approaches: 1. Experience Reliance on past experience probably plays a larger part than it deserves in decision making. Experienced managers usually believe, often without realizing it, that the things they have successfully accomplished and the mistakes they have made serve as almost infallible guides to the future. This attitude is likely to be more pronounced the more experience a manager has had and the higher he or she has risen in an organization. Relying on past experience as a guide for future action can be dangerous. In the first place, most people do not recognize the underlying reasons for their mistakes or failures. In the second place, the lessons of experience may be entirely inapplicable to new problems. Good decisions must be evaluated against future events, while experience belongs to the past. On the other hand, if a person carefully analyzes experience, rather than blindly following it, and if he or she distills from experience the fundamental reasons for success or failure, then experience can be useful as a basis for decision analysis. A successful program, a well-managed company, a profitable product promotion, or any other decision that turns out well may furnish useful data for such distillation. Just as scientists do not hesitate to build upon the research of others and would be foolish indeed merely to duplicate it, managers can learn much from others. 2. Experimentation An obvious way to decide among alternatives is to try one of them and see what happens. Experimentation is often used in scientific inquiry. People often argue that it should be employed more often in managing and that the only way a manager can make sure some plans are right— especially in view of the intangible factors—is to try the various alternatives and see which is best. The experimental technique is likely to be the most expensive of all techniques, especially if a program requires heavy expenditures of capital and personnel and if the firm cannot afford to vigorously attempt several alternatives. Besides, after an experiment has been tried, there may still be doubt about what it proved, since the future may not duplicate the present. This technique, therefore, should be used only after considering other alternatives. On the other hand, there are many decisions that cannot be made until the best course of action can be ascertained by experiment. Even reflections on experience or the most careful research may not assure managers of correct decisions. This is nowhere better illustrated than in the planning of a new airplane. An airplane manufacturer may draw from personal experience and that of other plane manufacturers and new plane users. Engineers and economists may make extensive studies of stress, vibration, fuel consumption, speed, space allocation, and other factors. But all these studies do not answer every question about the flight characteristics and economics of a successful plane; therefore, some experimentation is almost always involved in the process of selecting the right course to follow. Ordinarily, a first-production, or prototype, airplane is constructed and tested; and on the basis of these tests, production airplanes are made according to a somewhat revised design. Experimentation is used in other ways. A firm may test a new product in a certain market before expanding its sale nationwide. Organizational techniques are often tried in a branch office or plant before being applied over an entire company. A candidate for a management job may be tested in the job during the incumbent's vacation. 3. Research and analysis One of the most effective techniques for selecting from alternatives when major decisions are involved is research and analysis. This approach means solving a problem by first comprehending it. It thus involves a search for relationships among the more critical of the variables, constraints, and premises that bear upon the goal sought. It is the pencil-and-paper (or, better, the computer-and-printout) approach to decision making. Solving a planning problem requires breaking it into its component parts and studying the various quantitative and qualitative factors. Study and analysis is likely to be far cheaper than experimentation. The hours of time and reams of paper used for analyses usually cost much less than trying the various alternatives. In manufacturing airplanes, for example, if careful research did not precede the building and testing of the prototype airplane and its parts, the resulting costs would be enormous. A major step in the research-and-analysis approach is to develop a model simulating the problem. Thus, architects often make models of buildings in the form of extensive blueprints or three-dimensional renditions. Engineers test models of airplane wings and missiles in a wind tunnel. But the most useful simulation is likely to be a representation of the variables in a problem situation by mathematical terms and relationships. Conceptualizing a problem is a major step toward its solution. The physical sciences have long relied on mathematical models to do this, and it is encouraging to see this method being applied to managerial decision making

Question 57

Reliance on past experience probably plays a larger part than it deserves in decision making. Experienced managers usually believe, often without realizing it, that the things they have successfully accomplished and the mistakes they have made serve as almost infallible guides to the future. This attitude is likely to be more pronounced the more experience a manager has had and the higher he or she has risen in an organization. Relying on past experience as a guide for future action can be dangerous. In the first place, most people do not recognize the underlying reasons for their mistakes or failures. In the second place, the lessons of experience may be entirely inapplicable to new problems. Good decisions must be evaluated against future events, while experience belongs to the past. On the other hand, if a person carefully analyzes experience, rather than blindly following it, and if he or she distills from experience the fundamental reasons for success or failure, then experience can be useful as a basis for decision analysis. A successful program, a well-managed company, a profitable product promotion, or any other decision that turns out well may furnish useful data for such distillation. Just as scientists do not hesitate to build upon the research of others and would be foolish indeed merely to duplicate it, managers can learn much from others.

Answer 57

experience

Question 58

An obvious way to decide among alternatives is to try one of them and see what happens. Experimentation is often used in scientific inquiry. People often argue that it should be employed more often in managing and that the only way a manager can make sure some plans are right— especially in view of the intangible factors—is to try the various alternatives and see which is best. The experimental technique is likely to be the most expensive of all techniques, especially if a program requires heavy expenditures of capital and personnel and if the firm cannot afford to vigorously attempt several alternatives. Besides, after an experiment has been tried, there may still be doubt about what it proved, since the future may not duplicate the present. This technique, therefore, should be used only after considering other alternatives. On the other hand, there are many decisions that cannot be made until the best course of action can be ascertained by experiment. Even reflections on experience or the most careful research may not assure managers of correct decisions. This is nowhere better illustrated than in the planning of a new airplane. An airplane manufacturer may draw from personal experience and that of other plane manufacturers and new plane users. Engineers and economists may make extensive studies of stress, vibration, fuel consumption, speed, space allocation, and other factors. But all these studies do not answer every question about the flight characteristics and economics of a successful plane; therefore, some experimentation is almost always involved in the process of selecting the right course to follow. Ordinarily, a first-production, or prototype, airplane is constructed and tested; and on the basis of these tests, production airplanes are made according to a somewhat revised design. Experimentation is used in other ways. A firm may test a new product in a certain market before expanding its sale nationwide. Organizational techniques are often tried in a branch office or plant before being applied over an entire company. A candidate for a management job may be tested in the job during the incumbent's vacation.

Answer 58

Experimentation

Question 59

One of the most effective techniques for selecting from alternatives when major decisions are involved is research and analysis. This approach means solving a problem by first comprehending it. It thus involves a search for relationships among the more critical of the variables, constraints, and premises that bear upon the goal sought. It is the pencil-and-paper (or, better, the computer-and-printout) approach to decision making. Solving a planning problem requires breaking it into its component parts and studying the various quantitative and qualitative factors. Study and analysis is likely to be far cheaper than experimentation. The hours of time and reams of paper used for analyses usually cost much less than trying the various alternatives. In manufacturing airplanes, for example, if careful research did not precede the building and testing of the prototype airplane and its parts, the resulting costs would be enormous. A major step in the research-and-analysis approach is to develop a model simulating the problem. Thus, architects often make models of buildings in the form of extensive blueprints or three-dimensional renditions. Engineers test models of airplane wings and missiles in a wind tunnel. But the most useful simulation is likely to be a representation of the variables in a problem situation by mathematical terms and relationships. Conceptualizing a problem is a major step toward its solution. The physical sciences have long relied on mathematical models to do this, and it is encouraging to see this method being applied to managerial decision making.

Answer 59

research and analysis

Question 60

what are the Decision Making Conditions

Answer 60

Decision Making under Certainty: * Exact and complete information of the consequence of every decision option. * Decision maker knows alternatives and their outcomes well. Decision Making under Risk: * Available alternatives and their consequences are known but risky. * Alternatives are assessed by calculating the expected probability value of their outcomes. The outcome with the maximum payoff is selected. Decision Making under Uncertainty: * Decision making is not aware of the risks or outcomes of the decision alternatives. * Decision making can use Max-Min or Max-Max criterion. All intelligent decision makers dealing with uncertainty like to know the degree and nature of the risk they are taking in choosing a course of action. One of the deficiencies in using the traditional approaches of operations research for problem solving is that many of the data used in a model are merely estimates and others are based on probabilities. The ordinary practice is to have staff specialists come up with "best estimates.“ Virtually every decision is based on the interaction of a number of important variables, many of which have an element of uncertainty but, perhaps, a fairly high degree of probability. Thus, the wisdom of launching a new product might depend on a number of critical variables: the cost of introducing the product, the cost of producing it, the capital investment that will be required, the price that can be set for the product, the size of the potential market, and the share of the total market that it will represent. Creativity and Innovation * Creativity refers to the ability and power to develop new ideas. * Innovation, on the other hand, usually means the use of these ideas. An important factor in managing people is creativity. A distinction can be made between creativity and innovation. The term creativity usually refers to the ability and power to develop new ideas. Innovation, on the other hand, usually means the use of these ideas. In an organization, this can mean a new product, a new service, or a new way of doing things. Although this discussion centers on the creative process, it is implied that organizations not only generate new ideas but also translate them into practical applications. The Creative Process The creative process is seldom simple and linear. Instead, generally it consists of four overlapping and interacting phases: (1)unconscious scanning, The first phase, unconscious scanning is difficult to explain because it is beyond consciousness. This scanning usually requires an absorption in the problem, which may be vague in the mind. Yet managers working under time constraints often make decisions prematurely rather than dealing thoroughly with ambiguous, ill-defined problems. (2)intuition, The second phase, intuition, connects the unconscious with the conscious. This stage may involve a combination of factors that may seem contradictory at first. Intuition needs time to work. It requires that people find new combinations and integrate diverse concepts and ideas. Thus, one must think through the problem. Intuitive thinking is promoted by several techniques, such as brainstorming. (3)insight, and Insight, the third phase of the creative process, is mostly the result of hard work. For example, many ideas are needed in the development of a usable product, a new service, or a new process. What is interesting is that insight may come at times when the thoughts are not directly focused on the problem at hand. Moreover, new insights may last for only a few minutes, and effective managers may benefit from having paper and pencil ready to make notes of their creative ideas. (4)logical formulation. , The last phase in the creative process is logical formulation or verification. Insight needs to be tested through logic or experiment. This may be accomplished by continuing to work on an idea or by inviting critiques from others. Brown and Sloan's idea of decentralization, for example, needed to be tested against organizational reality. Building Group Creativity There are different techniques for building group creativity: Brainstorming: managers must face-to-face to generate and debate many alternatives. * Group members are not allowed to evaluate alternatives until all alternatives are listed. * Be creative and radical in stating alternatives. * When all are listed, then the pros and cons of each are discussed and a short list created. Production blocking: is a potential problem with brainstorming. * Members cannot absorb all information being presented during the session and can forget their own alternatives. Nominal group technique: provides a more structured way to generate alternatives in writing. * Avoids the production blocking problem. * Similar to brainstorming except that each member is given time to first write down all alternatives he or she would suggest. * Alternatives are then read aloud without discussion until all have been listed. * Then discussion occurs and alternatives are ranked. Delphi technique: provides for a written format without having all managers meet face-to-face. * Problem is distributed in written form to managers who then generate written alternatives. * Responses are received and summarized by top managers. * These results are sent back to participants for feedback, and ranking. * The process continues until consensus is reached. Delphi technique allow distant managers to participate.

Question 61

* Exact and complete information of the consequence of every decision option. * Decision maker knows alternatives and their outcomes well.

Answer 61

Decision Making under Certainty:

Question 62

* Available alternatives and their consequences are known but risky. * Alternatives are assessed by calculating the expected probability value of their outcomes. The outcome with the maximum payoff is selected

Answer 62

Decision Making under Risk:

Question 63

* Decision making is not aware of the risks or outcomes of the decision alternatives. * Decision making can use Max-Min or Max-Max criterion. All intelligent decision makers dealing with uncertainty like to know the degree and nature of the risk they are taking in choosing a course of action. One of the deficiencies in using the traditional approaches of operations research for problem solving is that many of the data used in a model are merely estimates and others are based on probabilities. The ordinary practice is to have staff specialists come up with "best estimates.“ Virtually every decision is based on the interaction of a number of important variables, many of which have an element of uncertainty but, perhaps, a fairly high degree of probability. Thus, the wisdom of launching a new product might depend on a number of critical variables: the cost of introducing the product, the cost of producing it, the capital investment that will be required, the price that can be set for the product, the size of the potential market, and the share of the total market that it will represent.

Answer 63

Decision Making under Uncertainty:

Question 64

refers to the ability and power to develop new ideas

Answer 64

Creativity

Question 65

usually means the use of these ideas

Answer 65

Innovation

Question 66

An important factor in managing people is creativity. A distinction can be made between creativity and innovation. The term creativity usually refers to the ability and power to develop new ideas.

Answer 66

creativity

Question 67

Innovation, on the other hand, usually means the use of these ideas. In an organization, this can mean a new product, a new service, or a new way of doing things.

Answer 67

innovation

Question 68

Although this discussion centers on the creative process, it is implied that organizations not only generate new ideas but also translate them into practical applications

Answer 68

read

Question 69

seldom simple and linear. Instead, generally it consists of four overlapping and interacting phases:

Answer 69

creative process

Question 70

The first phase, unconscious scanning is difficult to explain because it is beyond consciousness. This scanning usually requires an absorption in the problem, which may be vague in the mind. Yet managers working under time constraints often make decisions prematurely rather than dealing thoroughly with ambiguous, ill-defined problems

Answer 70

unconscious scanning,

Question 71

The second phase, intuition, connects the unconscious with the conscious. This stage may involve a combination of factors that may seem contradictory at first. Intuition needs time to work. It requires that people find new combinations and integrate diverse concepts and ideas. Thus, one must think through the problem. Intuitive thinking is promoted by several techniques, such as brainstorming.

Answer 71

intuition

Question 72

Insight, the third phase of the creative process, is mostly the result of hard work. For example, many ideas are needed in the development of a usable product, a new service, or a new process. What is interesting is that insight may come at times when the thoughts are not directly focused on the problem at hand. Moreover, new insights may last for only a few minutes, and effective managers may benefit from having paper and pencil ready to make notes of their creative ideas.

Answer 72

insight

Question 73

The last phase in the creative process is logical formulation or verification. Insight needs to be tested through logic or experiment. This may be accomplished by continuing to work on an idea or by inviting critiques from others. Brown and Sloan's idea of decentralization, for example, needed to be tested against organizational reality

Answer 73

logical formulation

Question 74

There are different techniques for building group creativity:

Answer 74

Brainstorming: managers must face-to-face to generate and debate many alternatives. * Group members are not allowed to evaluate alternatives until all alternatives are listed. * Be creative and radical in stating alternatives. * When all are listed, then the pros and cons of each are discussed and a short list created. Production blocking: is a potential problem with brainstorming. * Members cannot absorb all information being presented during the session and can forget their own alternatives. Nominal group technique: provides a more structured way to generate alternatives in writing. * Avoids the production blocking problem. * Similar to brainstorming except that each member is given time to first write down all alternatives he or she would suggest. * Alternatives are then read aloud without discussion until all have been listed. * Then discussion occurs and alternatives are ranked. Delphi technique: provides for a written format without having all managers meet face-to-face. * Problem is distributed in written form to managers who then generate written alternatives. * Responses are received and summarized by top managers. * These results are sent back to participants for feedback, and ranking. * The process continues until consensus is reached. Delphi technique allow distant managers to participate.

Question 75

managers must face-to-face to generate and debate many alternatives. * Group members are not allowed to evaluate alternatives until all alternatives are listed. * Be creative and radical in stating alternatives. * When all are listed, then the pros and cons of each are discussed and a short list created.

Answer 75

brainstorming

Question 76

s a potential problem with brainstorming. * Members cannot absorb all information being p

Answer 76

production blocking

Question 77

: provides a more structured way to generate alternatives in writing. * Avoids the production blocking problem. * Similar to brainstorming except that each member is given time to first write down all alternatives he or she would suggest. * Alternatives are then read aloud without discussion until all have been listed. * Then discussion occurs and alternatives are ranked.

Answer 77

Nominal group technique

Question 78

: provides for a written format without having all managers meet face-to-face. * Problem is distributed in written form to managers who then generate written alternatives. * Responses are received and summarized by top managers. * These results are sent back to participants for feedback, and ranking. * The process continues until consensus is reached. Delphi technique allow distant managers to participate

Answer 78

Delphi technique