Week 6_Class 1 Flashcards
What is the heuristic in anchoring and adjustment?
When estimating quantity or probability, start from initial value (anchor) and adjust in desired direction.
What is the bias in anchoring and adjustment?
Adjustment usually insufficient.
What does the test involving the percentage of African countries in the U.N. show?
Even when the anchor is obviously random and irrelevant, it influences judgement.
Which would participants perceive as having a higher median estimate?
8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1
1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8
8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1
What is the availability heuristic?
Judge frequency or probability of event on ease with which instance can be brought to mind.
What is the problem (bias) with the availability heuristic?
People overestimate events that salient.
What do people say is more common, words beginning with letter K or words with K in third position?
Most people say K in the first position, but that’s wrong.
Do people say that words ending in “ing” or “n” are more common?
“ing”
How good were people at predicting how frequent certain common causes of death?
They overestimated rare cause, and underestimated common causes.
What did Combs and Slovic find in their newspaper study?
Rare causes of death are salient.
