1. Understanding the Future

Question 1

Megatrends - what type of force

Answer 1

large, transformative global force which impacts everyone on the planet; large-scale macro changes in circumsstance

Question 2

Megatrends - what are the causes

Answer 2

a confluence of multiple causes and events; no singular underlying cause

Question 3

Megatrends - what are the effects

Answer 3

long-term influence on activities, processes and perceptions

Question 4

Megatrends - does it affect other trends

Answer 4

underlying forces that drive secondary/ industry trends

Question 5

Megatrends - what is the nature of the effect

Answer 5

both independent and interconnected impact

e.g. ageing population and technology –> when together, it reshapes the thinking of decision makers

Question 6

Global Marketplace [ICE]

Answer 6

• increasing interdependence of nations (through trade; balancing tension between global and local priorities)
• shrinking gulf between ‘mature’ and ‘rapid-growth’ countries (methods of categorisation)
• new tier of emerging nations competing on the global level (creating hot spots as a growth strategy, the war for talent)

Question 7

Changing Demographics [WAYP]

Answer 7

• women in the workforce (gendered roles in the workforce?)
• ageing population (silver tsunami, but also giving rise to silver industries)
• younger workforce and youth bulges (leads to structural unemployment and underemployment)
• growing population

Question 8

Rise of the Middle Class and Urbanisation

Answer 8

• social and infrastructural challenges [IRUGS]
  a. infrastructural development and management
  b. pressure on natural resources
  c. urban slums, decay and footprint
  d. increased demand for G&S
  e. social integration, job creation, services provision
• mega cities - management

Question 9

Enabling Technology [PDD]

Answer 9

• high mobile penetration rates
• data generation < data analysis –> it’s a problem
• technology a key driver of development (employment and reskilling concerns)

Question 10

Rise of the Individual [PIES]

Answer 10

• blurring of private and public boundaries (such as when it is safe to post online since companies use that for background checks; social credit scores based on use)
• interconnected population (digital natives)
• education drives empowerment
• rising incomes, rising social expectations (demands for more transparency, accountability and participation in governance)

Question 11

Economic Power Shift

Answer 11

• asia’s resurgence

Question 12

Name the 6 Megatrends [MEITU-D]

Answer 12

1. global marketplace
2. economic power shift
3. rise of the individual
4. enabling technology
5. rise of the middle class and urbanisation
6. changing demographics

Question 13

Black Swan Events [3 characteristics - PCR]

Answer 13

1. hard to predict - comes as a surprise to the observer; nothing in the past can convincingly point to its probability
2. huge consequences - major effect/impact
3. rationalised by hindsight