ch7: decision making and creativity Flashcards
decision making
the conscious process of making choices among alternatives with the intention of moving toward some desired state of affairs
effective decision making
identifying, selecting and applying the best possible alternative – pure logic
the rational choice view history
established 2500 years ago – Plato
o 400 years ago – Descartes + other European philosophers – the ability to make logical decisions
o 1700s – the notion that the best choice is the one that offers the greatest explained satisfaction
ratonal choice decision
selecting the best alternative by calculating the probability that various outcomes will occur from the choices and the expected satisfaction from each of those outcomes
identify the problem
o Problem – the deviation between the current and the desired situation
“ought to be” – goals or performance expectations – later help evaluate the selected choice
o Opportunity – a deviation between current expectations and a potentially better situation that wasn’t previously expected
Discovery that some choices may produce better results than current goals or expectations
choosing the best decision process
– choosing among the different approaches and processes to make the decision
o Programmed – follow standard operating procedures – they have been resolved in the past, optimal solution has already been identified and documented
o Nonprogrammed – requires all steps in the decision models, problems are new or complex
discover or develop a list of possible choices
o Searching for ready-made solutions (practices that have worked well on similar problems)
o If they’re not acceptable, need to design a custom-made solution or modify an existing one
choose the best alternative
– an alternative that offers the greatest expected satisfaction or value
o Requires information about all possible alternatives and their outcomes – usually impossible
evaluate what
whether the gap has narrowed between what is and what ought to be
five problem identification challenges
o Solution-focused problems – describe the problem as a veiled solution – have been reinforced by past successes with that solution + comforted by closure to problems (nonconsciously embed a solution in their problem definition)
o Decisive leadership – executives are valued for their decisiveness (how quickly they determine that it’s a problem) + many leaders announce problem before having a chance to logically assess the situation
o Stakeholder framing – hide or provide information in ways that makes the decision maker see the situation as a problem, opportunity, steady sailing
Point to external factors rather than their own faults as the cause of production delays
o Perceptual defense – fail to become aware of problems because they block out bad news as a coping mechanism
o Mental models – knowledge structures that we develop to describe, explain, and predict the world around us
Fill in information that we don’t immediately see – fulfills our need to understand and navigate the surrounding environment
Also are prototypes of ideal conditions – models of how things should be – can blind us
identifying problems effectively
o Be aware of problem identification biases
o Resist temptation to look decisive
o Develop a norm of “divine discontent” – never satisfied with current conditions no matter how successful the situation may be
o Discuss the situation with colleagues and clients – easier to discover blind spots in problem identification when listening to how others perceive the situation
bounded rationality
the view that people re bounded in their decision-making capabilities, including access to limited information, limited information processing, and tendency toward satisficing rather than maximizing when making choices
o Known as the theory questioning the rational choice view, but it’s not the only one – imperfect rationality theories
goals
often ambiguous or in conflict with each other – decision makers rarely have a guide to determine which ones should take priority
information processing
in reality, people evaluate only a few alternatives and only some of the main outcomes of those alternatives
implicit favorite
– a preferred alternative that the decision maker uses repeatedly as a comparison with other choices