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ENCN371 > Week 9: Decision Theory for Engineers > Flashcards

Week 9: Decision Theory for Engineers Flashcards

1
Q

l

Compare routine vs. make-or-break decisions.

A

Routine:
- small impact
- reversible
- short term
- standard decision process

Make-or-break:
- high impact
- irreversible
- long term
- variety of decision processes

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2
Q

What is an unstructured decision process?

A

Do nothing
Guess
Flip a coin

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3
Q

What are qualitative structured decision processes?

A

Pros and cons list
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)
Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
Delphi method
Fuzzy logic

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4
Q

What are quantitative structured decision processes?

A

Mathematical models
Statistical tools and trend analysis
Hypothesis testing, Monte Carlo, Markov Chains, …

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5
Q

Risk is a combination of …

A

The events and the consequences of these events, and the associated uncertainties.

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6
Q

Risk can be described by (A, C, C*, U, P, K).
What do each of these terms stand for?

A

C = consequences of the activity, A
C* = prediction of C
U = uncertainty about what value C will take
P = probability of specific events and consequences, given the background information, K

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7
Q

What are the 3 steps of the Risk Management Process?

A

Planning
Risk assessment
Risk treatment

Time allocation: 1/3 each

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8
Q

What is the Planning step of the risk management process?

A

Problem definition, information gathering, organisation of work.
Select analysis method.

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9
Q

What is the RIsk assessment step of the risk management process?

A

Identification of initiating events.
Cause and consequence analysis.
Risk picture.

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10
Q

What is the risk treatment step of the risk management process?

A

Compare alternatives, identification and assessment of measures.
Management review and judgement. Decision.

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11
Q

What are the three risk analysis methods?

A

Simplified risk analysis
Standard risk analysis
Model-based risk analysis

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12
Q

Describe simplified risk analysis

A

Qualitative
Informal procedure that establishes risk picture using brainstorming sessions and group discussions.

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13
Q

Describe standard risk analysis.

A

Qualitative or quantitative.
Formalised procedure. Recognised risk analysis methods are used (HAZOP, coarse risk analysis)
Risk matrices.
Coarse risk analysis.

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14
Q

What is model-based risk analysis?

A

Quantitative
Event tree analysis, fault tree analysis to calculate risk.

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15
Q

What is a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)?

A

System analysis technique used to determine root causes and probability of occurrence of a specific undesired event.
Deductive.

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16
Q

What are Cut Sets (CS)?

A

Set of events that together cause the top undesired event to occur.

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17
Q

What are some uses of FTA?

A

Foundation design for critical buildings
Tunnel construction safety
Construction site safety
Construction assessment
Construction equipment reliability

18
Q

Compare a reactive vs. proactive FTA.

A

Reactive:
- performed after an accident has occurred.
- used as an accident investigation method.

Proactive:
- performed during system development to influence design by predicting and preventing future problems
- used as a risk analysis method.

19
Q

What is an Event Tree Analysis (ETA).

A

Inductive procedure that shows all possible outcomes resulting from an accidental event. Takes into account installed safety barriers, additional events and factors.

20
Q

Outline the ETA process.

dont need to remember this he said

A
  1. Define the system
  2. Identify accidental scenarios
  3. Identify initiating events
  4. Identify pivotal events
  5. Build ETD
  6. Obtain failure event probabilities
  7. Identify outcome risk
  8. Evaluate outcome risk
  9. Recommend corrective action
  10. Document ETA
21
Q

What are Markov Chains?

A

Markov Chains are used to compute probabilities of events occurring by viewing them as states transitioning into other states, and back into the same state as before.

22
Q

Where are Markov Chains?

A
  • Predicting traffic flows
  • Communications networks load
  • Genetic issues
  • Cruise control systems in vehicles
  • etc.
23
Q

What are regular Markov chains?

A

Markov chain is regular if transition matrix is regular.
Matrix is regular if some power of the matrix has only positive entries.

24
Q

What is an absorbing Markov State?

A

Absorbing if once the state is entered it is impossible to leave.

25
Q

What is an absorbing Markov chain?

A

Powers of the transition matrix approach a limiting matrix (one specific matrix).
Has at least one absorbing state.

26
Q

A decision is senstive if …

A
  • After a test the decision is different for different test results.
  • After more tests, the decision changes.
27
Q

What is pre-posterior analysis?

A

Doing a test, updating the probability distribution for the state of nature, and deciding on which action to take.
Involves deciding whether an experiment should be done.

28
Q

What is posterior (Bayes) analysis?

A

Calculating posterior probabilities for the state of nature, given an experiment has been done and the result is known, and then deciding which action to take. Doing the test.

29
Q

What is aleatory uncertainty?

A

Natural randomness
- rainfall
- river flows
- wind speed
- behaviour of people

30
Q

What is epistemic uncertainty?

A

Inaccuracy in our understanding and our models for predicting reality.

31
Q

What is a Type 1 Error?

A

Rejecting a true hypothesis.

32
Q

What is a Type 2 Error?

A

Accepting a false hypothesis.

33
Q

What is utility (U)?

A

State of being satisified, useful, valuable, profitable, worth, beneficial.

34
Q

Marginal utility (MU)?

A

Additional utility gained from consumption of one additional unit of good or service.

35
Q

What is total utility (UT)?

A

Total amount of satisfaction that you can receive from the consumption of all units of a specific product or service.

36
Q

What is the utility maximising rule?

A

Decisionmakers decide to allocate money incomes so that the last dollar spent on each product purchased yields same amount of extra marginal utility.

Law of diminishing marginal utility.

Utility maximisation model based on assumptions:
1. Decision-makers are rational
2. Decision-makers incomes are limited, resources are limited.
3. Decision-makers have clear preferences.
4. Decision-makers must choose among alternative goods.

37
Q

What is risk neutral?

A

Bases decisions on expected utility

38
Q

What is risk averse?

A

Uncomfortable with a large probability of big loss. Favour capital preservation over capital gain. Conservative. Reduces chances of experiencing losses but comes with opportunity costs.

39
Q

What is criterion of pessimism?

A

examines only minimum payoffs

40
Q

What is criterion of optimism?

A

examines maximum payoffs

41
Q

What is criterion of regret?

A

minimises maximum regret

42
Q

What is prior?

A

Prior knowledge

ENCN371 (13 decks)

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