Chapter 15 - Problem solving and decision making

Question 1

Why is there a need for an entire chapter related to decisions, decision making and problem-solving?

Answer 1

One of the defining characteristics of projects is the fact that they carry uncertainty. In addition, projects are temporary, often short endeavors. Therefore, there is no time to wait with decisions.

The great deal of uncertainty means that we are highly likely to meet situations that we never considered before. This is due to the uncertainty factor of projects. Therefore, we will meet/stumple upon problems that we have not really considered. Therefore, we need to know how to handle such situations.

Of course also, the uniqueness element of projects create situations with limited pre-known knowledge. It is therefore better to understand how to deal with problem solving in general.

Question 2

When making decisions, what broad categories of tools do we have?

Answer 2

We consider 2:

1) Structured tools and approaches

2) Expert judgement.

The expert judgement is not an exact science. However, it is often the best alternative.

Question 3

Define a problem

Answer 3

A problem is defined as the gap between where we currently are, and where we want to be.

There is often not enough focus on the actual gap. Many people perceive a problem, without actually identifying the gap.

Question 4

Categorize problem after their time required before aciton

Answer 4

1) Requiring immediate reaction. These cases could maybe be more accurately described as reflex cases. Could be solved by training.

2) Response to a crisis. Relatively short time period. We need to resolve the problem ASAP due to a very undesirable state.

3) Emerging problem. Some undesirable state is likely to occur. We know it is likely to occur, and therefore want to treat it. However, the issue is not immediate.

4) Response to an opportunity. could be avoidance in advance of a potential problem.

5) Strategy formulation. Plotting of a course to a desired situation over a period of years.

Question 5

What is proceduralisation?

Answer 5

Predetermined response to a given set of conditions.

Creating procedures for scenarios. Very helpful for managing the immediate action required situations. It is basically training, drilling. Football team knowing exactly what to do if a team expose their fullback, a hedgefund knowing what to do if market drops heavily, a construction site having procedures for safety strategies.

Such procedures are of course not restricted to emergency situations, but they are easily understood in those cases. However, proceduralisation is just the creation of predetermined responses.

Question 6

What is an unbounded problem?

Answer 6

An unbounded problem is a problem that has no measure of gap between current state and preferred state. This means that we are trying to handle a problem without actually knowing how far it is left. Also, we dont really have a good description of the problem.

Question 7

What is the standard problem-solving model?

Answer 7

It is a model consisting of 3 phases:
1) Analysis
2) Synthesis
3) Action

First we ask: Does a problem exist? If no, then we’re good. If yes, we move down.

Then we ask: Is the answer pre-structured (use of proceduralization)? If yes, read the solution. if no, move down.

Now we are seeking definition to the problem.
We ask: Is some discussed definition acceptable? If no, repeat by seeking alternative definition.
if yes, move down.

Now we are trying to find solution.
We ask: Is the solution acceptable? if no, repeat problem deifnition strucutre.
if yes, then we implement it.

This problem-solving model focus on the fact that we need to properly define a problem, define its structure, and then look at the possible solutions. This gives us a lot of reflection on what the actual problem is.
Then, we choose some action.

Question 8

What is the major point about the “problem solving model”?

Answer 8

The fact that a systematic approach HAS to be done when discussing the problem definition. Essentially, the analysis phase of the problem solving model is the focus. Only after the problem is extremely well understood, are we capable to find the appropriate solution.

Question 9

What is an example of a strategy for finding solutions to a problem?

Answer 9

Brainstorming

Question 10

How can we make brainstorming work properly?

Answer 10

Brainstorming works best when we facilitiate the ability to extract and combine solutions from the differnet participants.

We should also provide a basic structure, as groups are generally bad at this.

Give participants the opportunity to pre-think.

Start with ice-breaking to reduce threshold to participate.

Write down all ideas. Everything must be considered.

Ideas should be expressed by someone as a response to the one giving the idea, paraphrasing it. This makes sure that the idea is understood, and provides a way of actively contributing.

During brainstorming, criticism is not allowed.

Be aware of dominating groups/individuals.

If done right, brainstorming can reduce group thinking. for instance if everyone writes down at least one idea before they say it.

Question 11

What is “management science”?

Answer 11

Management science, also referred to as operational research, is a field that use advanced modeling tools to help with the decision making. The hope is that these tools can perhaps manage more data than we can, and therefore make decisions based on quantitative data.

Maylor & Turner focus on the fact that such models may be a valuable tool, but is definitely not the entire toolbox.

What are examples of such models that fall within the category of management science?

• Descriptive models, such as graphs and plots
• Geometric models
• Predictive models

THe models use mathematics and statistics to make something from the data.

The model is defined as a system that tries to simulate another system.

Question 12

What are the benefits of using models in management science

Answer 12

If models are already created, the thought is that they will provide time benefits and “truth” factor.

Question 13

What ways can we deal with uncertainty?

Answer 13

There are 2 ways:

1) Deal with the cause
2) Deal with the effects

Question 14

What tools should the PM at LEAST have as far as problem solving tools are considered?

Answer 14

1) Pareto analysis
2) Fishbone diagrams

Question 15

Elaborate on pareto analysis

Answer 15

Basically the Pareto principle, which state the 80/20 rule.

FOr instance:
80% of profits come from 20% of the operation.
80% of sales comes from 20% of the customers.
80% of the gains comes from 20% of the training.
80% of the problems are caused by 20% of causes.

Therefore, Pareto analysis wants to figure out what 20% this is, because it will give us the best results. This is basically just applying effort where the yield is most effective.

Question 16

Elaborate on Ishikawa/fishbone diagrams

Answer 16

Fishbone diagrams are a structured way of looking at a problem/effect and its causes.

On the far right, we place the EFFECT. For instance, this could be “software delivered late”.

Then we draw a line from this right-point, and horizontally across to the left. From this horizontal line, we make “avstikkere”, kind of creating a fishbone. Each side-bone is given a major cause, or just a cause.

Then, on each side-bone representing a cause, we draw further descriptions of what could contribute to the problem from these acitivies.

IT IS VERY COMMON to use major causes, like personell, machinery, materials, methods etc as the major bones. This is broad categorization. Then, from each major category, we draw causes to the effect from this category. For instance, when looking at the effect of “software delivered late”, we could consider major branch “hardware” with causes like “Could not meet requirements” and “changed during working period”.

Anotehr example of the software deliereved late case, is the “MANAGEMENT OF TEAM” branch. On this branch, we could consider “reassigned programmers to other teams” and “innapropriate mixture of talent”.

The point is that we list some effect, and then find causes from different impact-categories.

Question 17

What is great about fishbone diagram?

Answer 17

The focus on problem-causes. It allows us to work thouroghly on the problem-analysis without jumping to synthesis.

Therefore, by using the Ishikawa diagram, we are learning a lot about the problem definition.

Question 18

In what 2 ways can we use the fishbone diagram?

Answer 18

Reactively and proactively. Either to explore a possible problem, or to react to one to treat it. Reactively is most common, but this is hardly because it is best.