Group decision making Flashcards
what is the risky shift phenomenon?
groups make riskier decisions, likely due to shared responsibility.
what is the main danger with unstructured group decision making?
groupthink - the tendency of groups to make poor decisions because pressures to avoid conflict lead to suppression of contradicting options.
what conditions can lead to groupthink?
high group cohesiveness and isolation, lack of procedure, directive leadership, high stress with a low degree of hope of finding a better option than the one presented.
what are the symptoms of groupthink?
illusion of invulnerability, collective rationalisation, belief in the group’s inherent morality, stereotypes of rivals as evil/weak/stupid, pressure on dissenters, self-censorship, shared illusion on unanimity, self-appointed ‘mindguards’.
what are the consequences of groupthink?
incomplete surveys of alternative courses of action, failure to examine risks of preferred choice, poor information search, selective bias in processing information, failure to work out a contingency plan.
what is decision conferencing?
group of decision makers gather with a decision analyst. simple models often used, providing common language for experts.
how does decision conferencing help avoid groupthink?
decision makers not on home ground, group is composed of many perspectives, facilitator is neutral outsider with no stakes in outcome, a structured model is used.
how does mathematical aggregation of group judgement work, and what are the +ves/-ves?
simple averages of estimates used. good because decision makers don’t have to be in the same location, and the status/personality of individuals doesn’t affect the process. however, individuals don’t have access to information exchange. can lead to paradoxical results.
what affect does group size have on mathematical averages of decision making?
as groups get bigger, s.e. of estimates goes down. over 5 people, the s.e. is very minimal.
how does weighted averages work for group decision making?
can have self or group ratings per individual, weights usually based on past performance. obviously depends if tasks are similar. most studies agree equal weighting works just as well.
what is the delphi method?
estimates are given individually and privately, with the results fed back to the group. there is then re-polling, and repeat until consensus emerges.
what are the +ves/-ves of the delphi method?
avoids biases while allowing for group discussions, good for large or dispersed groups, no pressures, anonymous, improved accuracy IF holdouts more accurate than switchers.
information sharing is limited, not much chance to be persuaded
what is arrows impossibility theorem?
no voting system with more than two options can meet all 4 ‘eminently reasonable conditions’: 1. produces transitive preference ordering 2. if every member prefers an option, so must the group 3. choice between A and B must depend on them, not any other options 4. there is no dictator.
only applies when preferences expressed as orderings.
what are some of the problems with aggregating preferences of the group?
arrows impossibility theorem for voting, average values/utilities don’t consider intensity of preference, monetary value assignments introduce income effects.
what is the summary of conditions for good group decision making?
individuals need to decide independently, then see a summary to facilitate discussion. inform everyone as much as possible about the facts involved in the decisions!
