Elections Flashcards
‘Money/campaign funding has the most important influence on elections.’ Discuss.
YES
✓ Ads + media
✓ Campaign funding / top-spending candidates
✓ Incumbency
NO
✗ Media (televised party debates, social media)
✗ Image of President
✗ Swing states
‘PACs have the most important influence on elections.’ Discuss.
YES
✓ Campaign funding
✓ Negative media
✓ Wealthy donors
NO
✗ Image of President
✗ Media
✗ Swing states
‘The media has the most important influence on elections.’ Discuss.
YES
✓ Ads + political spending
✓ Negative media
✓ Social media
NO
✗ Image of Pres (televised party debates)
✗ Swing states
✗ Campaign funding / money
‘Social media has the most important influence on elections.’ Discuss.
YES
✓ Activism / single issues
✓ Information
✓ Increase turnout
NO
✗ Media
✗ Image of Pres
✗ Swing states
‘The Election process is deeply flawed’. Discuss
YES:
✓ Focus on swing states
✓ Electoral college-popular vote
✓ Two party dominance
NO:
✗ Keeps smaller states involved
✗ Clear winner
✗ 3rd party candidates
Focus on swing states
– “A Democrat who lives in Kansas will never cast a meaningful vote in a presidential election in his or her life,” = Ed Grabianowski
– Almost 3/4 of campaigns in 2020 in 6 swing states - 33 no attention at all
– 2012 = Obama conducted campaign events in just 8 states after being nominated, and Romney 10
– Ohio ignored (2000) = Al Gore and George W. Bush stopped campaigning there shortly after being nominated
– ‘only swing states matter’
– David Schultz = “But for those in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, and a handful of other states, their votes matter. These states will be battered with a barrage of presidential candidate visits, commercials, political spending, and countless stories about them by the media”
- Winner takes all method - takes all votes of state
– Nevada (2012) = 52.4% Obama, 45.7% Mitt Romney
– Colorado (2012) = 51.5% Obama, 46.1% Romney
Electoral college-popular vote
– 2016 = 5th time Electoral College vote different to pop vote
– Although Clinton had nearly as many votes as Obama did in 2012 she lost electoral college by a wide margin = 227-304
– Happened in 1824, 1876, 1888, and 2000
– George W. Bush received almost half a million fewer votes than Al Gore
Two-party dominance
- Only been a Dem or Rep Pres
- Last time 3rd party secured electoral college vote was George Wallace (1968)
- Major parties raise more funds than third parties
– Priorities USA Action raised $192 million for Hilary Clinton’s campaign
– Restore Our Future (2012) spent $40m on Mitt Romney
– George Soros = $178m to Dems (2021-2022)
– Kenneth Griffin = $72m Reps
– 2021-2022 = incumbents raised $830m (28 candidates)
– Jill Stein (Green Party) raised $3.7m (2012)
Keeps smaller states involved
- If only pop vote mattered, they’d focus on areas like New York, Los Angeles + Chicago
- Encourages people to think about the state of farming in Iowa or opiate crisis in New Hampshire
– California has 63 times the population of Wyoming but only 18 times the ECV
- Protects small state interests, which are overrepresented with three electors
- Candidates must achieve success across all states, as Obama did in 2012 when he won 26 states plus Washington DC
- 2016: Minnesota had highest turnout (74.2%) and Utah and Hawaii had the lowest (46.4% and 42.5%) - ppl in Utah and Hawaii can still have an impact as their ECV values of 4 and 6 remain intact
Clear winner
– 2012: Obama won 51% of pop vote, but 332 / 538 elec. votes — nearly 62%
– Ross Perot (1992) = 18.9% pop vote, Clinton = 370 elec. votes
– 2000: Bush = 30 states, with 271 Electoral College votes
3rd party candidates
- Allows 3rd party candidates (choice) but makes it hard for extremist parties to get in
– People say Ross Perot spoiled the election for Bush (1992)
– Ralph Nader been accused of costing Al Gore the election in key swing states like Florida
– 1912: Eugene Debs, American Socialist Party only 6% pop. vote
– 1924: Robert La Follete, Progressive Party = 16% pop vote
– 1948: Strom Thurmond, Dixiecrat Party = only 39 electoral college votes + 2.4% pop vote
– 1992: Ross Perot, Independent = 19% (most since 1912)
– 2000: Ralph Nader, Green Party = 3m votes
– New Leaders ‘24 (new SuperPAC) aims to raise $300m to defeat Trump + Biden, and support a 3rd party candidate backed by the group No Labels
– Independent Brock Pierce donated $1.5m of his own money + raised $50k
‘The invisible primary has the biggest impact on presidential elections’. Discuss
YES
✓ Candidate announcement
✓ Campaign funding
✓ Name recognition + front-runners
NO
✗ Media
✗ Image of Pres
✗ Swing states
