Changing population - Population change Flashcards

You may prefer our related Brainscape-certified flashcards:
1
Q

What is the crude birth or death rate?

A

Number of live births or deaths/1000/year

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
2
Q

What is the fertility rate?

A

Total number of births/woman

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
3
Q

What is the replacement level?

A

The total fertility rate at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to another.

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
4
Q

What is the infant mortality rate?

A

The number of deaths of children in their first year /1000

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
5
Q

What is immigration/emigration?

A

The movements of people into a country/from a country

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
6
Q

What is the natural change?

A

The balance between births and deaths in a population
- can be described as:
~ natural increase/decrease
~ stable

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
7
Q

What is the net migration?

A

The balance between emigration and immigration

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
8
Q

What is demographic change?

A

The change in the population
- caused by variations in inputs (births + immigration) and outputs (death + emigration

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
9
Q

What are the factors that affect fertility?

A
  • Education + access to contraception - status of women
  • Infant mortality
  • Regulations (e.g. 1 child policy, political incentives, abortion)
  • Religion + cultures
  • Household income
  • Quality of healthcare + availability to maternity
  • Poverty - children to work
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
10
Q

How to reduce fertility rates?

A
  • Improve status of women (education + career opportunities)
  • Reduce poverty (children not needed for work)
  • Improve child survival (healthcare)
  • Access to fertility planning (access to contraception + abortion)
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
11
Q

What is and was the average global fertility rate?

A
  • 1970 = 5.0
  • 2016 = 2.4
  • However global population is still growing
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
12
Q

What is population momentum?

A

The tendency for population to grow despite falls in the birth rate

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
13
Q

Why does population momentum happen, although fertility rates may have declined?

A
  • Previous high fertility rates mean there will be a high number of people in early and pre-childbearing ages
  • As they move through the reproductive ages births will continue to exceed deaths
  • Populations continue to grow for approximately 50 years after they reach the replacement rate
  • Population momentum will happen even if the total fertility rate drops beneath the replacement rate (e.g. Canada)
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
14
Q

What are factors that affect mortality?

A
  • Improvements in food supply (quality + diversity + lack of calories + better diets) and agriculture
  • Immunisation + healthcare
  • Hygiene + sanitation
  • Clean water supplies
  • Education (public - does every community understand bacteria + how they spread? - how important hand-washing is?

(epidemics/pandemics (HIV/AIDS) + conflicts)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
15
Q

What is the population structure?

A
  • It varies between places over time
  • Refers to a number of measurable characteristics of a population
  • Can include: age, gender, ethnicity, language, socio-economic status, occupation, etc.
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
16
Q

What structures of a population can be displayed on a population pyramid?

A

Age + sex

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
17
Q

What do population pyramids show?

A

Trends in:
- Birth rate
- Death rate
- IMR (infant mortality rate)
- Life expectancy

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
18
Q

How can population pyramids be useful?

A
  • As a tool to help countries plan for the future (schools, services + facilities for the elderly)
  • Identify the proportion of the population who are economically active or dependent (dependency ratio)
  • Identify effects of immigration/emigration
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
19
Q

What do concave slopes of population pyramids suggest?

A

High death rates + low life expectancy

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
20
Q

What do near vertical sides of a population pyramid suggest?

A

Indicate low death rates

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
21
Q

What did the global population pyramid look like in 1970?

A
  • The largest segment was the youngest (0-5 years, 14% total)
  • Whilst above 85 years there were very few people
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
22
Q

What did the global population pyramid look like in 2015?

A
  • More like a dome
  • Young children still the largest group, but now make up only 10% of the population
  • Those above them = almost as big a cohort with 9.5%
  • Age groups start to become markedly smaller only around the age of 40, so incline starts much further up the chart than with the pyramid
  • Now also 50m people above 85, so the dome of 2015 had a spike
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
23
Q

What will the global population pyramid look like in 2060?

A
  • The dome has gone now and the shape of the population looks more like a column or pillar
  • Up to the age of 50 - generations are almost of equal size + shape has near-vertical sides
  • By 2060 - children will be barely more numerous than any other age group up to 65
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
24
Q

How to decipher population pyramids?

A
  • The higher the pyramid, the longer people live
  • A broader shape at the top shows a higher proportion of people living longer
  • Differences between males + females can be picked out - is there a gender imbalance?
  • Bulges show either a period of immigration, or a baby boom year
  • Indents show years of higher death rates than normal (disease, war, famine) or emigration
  • Youthful populations correspond with high fertility rates + larger family sizes
  • A wide base shows a high birth rate
  • A narrow base shows a falling birth rate
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
25
Q

What is an example of a country with more male migrants than female migrants + high birth rate in migrant groups that shows huge imbalances on the population pyramid?

A

The United Arab Emirates (UAE)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
26
Q

What did the global fertility rate look like in 1950?

A

Women were having an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime.
- The global fertility rate all but halved to 2.4 children per woman in 2021

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
27
Q

What replacement level does a country’s fertility rate have to drop under to cause the populations to eventually start to shrink?

A

2.1

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
28
Q

How many nations had a fertility rate below 2.1 in 1950?

A

0 nations

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
29
Q

How many countries now (2018) have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1?

A

Half of the world’s countries

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
30
Q

Which countries have lower fertility rates?

A

More economically developed countries including:
- Most of Europe
- The USA
- South Korea
- Australia

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
31
Q

Does the lower fertility rate in half of the world mean that the population is falling?

A

Not yet, as it can take generations for the changes in fertility rate to take hold - POPULATION MOMENTUM

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
32
Q

What is an example of where there still huge difference in the fertility rate between nations?

A
  • Niger (W. Africa) = 7.1
  • Cyprus = 1
  • Half of the world’s nations are still producing enough children for their populations to grow, but as more of these countries advance economically, the fertility rates will lower
33
Q

What are the 10 countries with the lowest fertility rates?

A
  • Cyprus = 1
  • Taiwan
  • South Korea = 1.2
  • Andorra
  • Puerto Rico
  • Thailand
  • Bosnia + Herzegovina = 1.3
  • Poland
  • Moldova
  • Japan
34
Q

Where are the countries with the highest fertility rates located?

A

9/10 of them are in Africa (apart from Afghanistan)
- Sub-Saharan Africa

35
Q

What are three key factors that lead to the fertility rate falling?

A
  • Fewer deaths in childhood meaning women have fewer babies
  • Greater access to contraception
  • More women in education + work
36
Q

What are factors that lead to the high fertility rate in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)?

A

fertility rate = 4.66
- Annual growth rate of 2.45%
- High infant mortality rate - over 70%, so women have more children to compensate
- Use of contraceptives limited to less than 20% of the population
- Largely agricultural society with 1/3 of workforce working in farming (children = added bonus of extra work)
- Low levels of literacy + high levels of poverty

37
Q

What are factors that lead to a low fertility rate in Germany?

A

Fertility rate = 1.44
- Germany is a HIC - average PPP of $46,900 (Purchasing power parity = GDP changed to dollars)
- Most employment in service sector - women = likely to be employed
- Most of population live in urban areas (over 75%)
- High literacy levels
- Over 60% of families use contraceptives

38
Q

What happens in countries with a low life expectancy?

A
  • Many people will still live into old age
  • However a significant number of people will die at a very young age
  • Meaning that the average is low
39
Q

Where can the bottom countries for life expectancy be found?

A

37/40 found in Sub-saharan Africa (World bank figures -2016)

40
Q

How does life expectancy differ between countries?

A

There are large variations in life expectancy, from over 80 in a number of developed nations
- Such as Japan, UK and Singapore
To less than 50
- for men in Chad

41
Q

What factor positively correlates with life expectancy?

A

Wealth (e.g. GDP)

42
Q

How does the World Bank classify a LIC?

A

Less than $995 GNI/Capita

43
Q

Which LIC has a life expectancy above 68?

A

Nepal

44
Q

How does life expectancy vary in MICs (where most people live)?

A

51 to 81- depending on how money is distributed and used

45
Q

How does the World Bank classify a HIC?

A

More than $12,000 GNI/Capita

46
Q

Which HICs have a life expectancy below 75?

A
  • The Bahamas
  • Trinidad
  • The Seychelles
47
Q

What factors affect life expectancy?

A

Lifestyle, levels of deprivation + availability + cost of medical care = all important
Other determinants include:
- Education, income + housing
- Diet, alcohol + drug misuse
- Preventative healthcare such as immunisation

48
Q

What differences should most countries expect to see in life expectancy over time?

A

Improvement over time
- As they develop/improve
- Food supply
- Access to clean water
- Availability of adequate housing

49
Q

What are examples of HICs where 50% of those born in 2007 will be expected to live to 100 years?

A
  • Japan
  • Canada
50
Q

Why is life expectancy often higher for women than men?

A

For men:
- Later retirement ages common
- More likely to undertake physical labour
- More likely to be involved in conflict
- Greater tendency towards destructive lifestyles (to smoke/drink in excess)

51
Q

Why have many countries in sub-saharan Africa struggled with low or declining life expectancies?

A
  • Poverty
  • Conflict
  • AIDS virus
  • Diseases in Zimbabwe, Botswana + Lesotho
  • Syria + Yemen - due to food shortages + conflict
52
Q

Why are Japan’s + the UK’s life expectancy higher than the USA’s?

A

Because even though the USA spends over $800 per capita (twice as much as Japan + UK)
on health services
- Healthcare is not free - many cannot afford health insurance + cannot access hospital treatment
… so life expectancy is below countries such as the UK (where NHS delivers state-funded healthcare for everyone

  • Japan also has a healthier lifetsyle and traditional (non-western) diet which is low-fat + includes higher proportion of fish + vegetables
53
Q

What are the key factors in improving the life expectancy in developed countries?

A
  • Level of education
  • GDP per capita
  • Lifestyle - reducing calorie intake!
  • Lifestyle - drink/drugs
  • Lifestyle - exercise
  • Lifestyle - reducing smoking!
  • Cost of healthcare
  • Healthcare spending by Government per capita!
  • Medical research (quaternary sector)
54
Q

What is the demographic transition model?

A

It shows variations in fertility, mortality + population dynamics
- This model is based on the experience of European countries
- It suggests that countries will pass through 5 stages of population change

55
Q

What happens during stage 1 of the DTM?

A

CBR: High
CDR: High
Demographic change: stable
- Society is pre-industrial. Economy based on subsistence agriculture
- CDR high + fluctuating due to incidence of famine, disease + war
- CBR high, need for child labour + replacement children

56
Q

What happens during stage 2 of the DTM?

A

CBR: High
CDR: Declining (death rate falls)
Demographic change: Natural increase (youthful population)
- Early industrialisation
- CBR high as child labour still required, no reliable contraceptives/ culturally
unacceptable
- CDR declining due to; better nutrition, improved healthcare + sanitation

57
Q

What happens during stage 3 of the DTM?

A

CBR: Declining
CDR: Low
Demographic change: Natural increase (young economically active)
- Society adjusts to lower mortality, birth rates begin to decline
- Continued improvements in medical care
- Wider contraceptive use, female education + higher status

58
Q

What happens during stage 4 of the DTM?

A

CBR: Declining
CDR: Low
Demographic change: Natural increase (many economically active)
- Advanced medical services + good quality of life
- Wide contraceptive accessibility
- High female status allows concentration on education/employment

59
Q

What happens during stage 5 of the DTM?

A

CBR: Declining
CDR: Low
Demographic change: Natural decrease (ageing population)
- Elderly generation dominates population structure
- Birth rate has fallen below death rate
- Population declines unless there is immigration

60
Q

Where can these stages of the DTM be seen?

A
  • Stage 1 - Isolated tribes
  • Stage 2/3 - LICs + Developing countries
  • Stage 3/4 - Emerging economies + MICs/RICs/NICs
  • Stage 4/5 - Developed countries/HICs
61
Q

Is the UK at stage 4 or 5 of the DTM?

A
  • EU expansion 2004 - citizens of 8 new countries in Eastern Europe given right to work + live in UK
  • 1 million economic migrants moved to the UK between 2004-2008
  • UK appeared to be heading for natural decrease + declining birth rates by the early 2000s
  • However net immigration, including 2004 increase, led to increase in young working age adults, and as a result to an increase in birth rates as these workers started families, maintaining steady rates of population growth in the UK
62
Q

What are limitations of the DTM?

A
  • Assumes all countries will pass through industrialisation as per Western Europe + develop at the same rate (Euro-centric)
  • Some countries may develop much more rapidly than the model suggests
  • Many LEDCs can’t afford the medical advances associated with stages 2 & 3
  • The fall in BR in stage 3 can vary greatly
    ->slow in some countries due to religion/culture (e.g. India)
    -> faster in others due to policies (e.g. China)
  • Stage 5 fails to account for immigration
63
Q

How did the DTM change over time in the UK?

A
  • Death rates fell from mid 1700s - because voluntary hospitals were more funded = better quality healthcare, equipment + doctors
  • 1820-1840 - death rates rose briefly due to food shortages, bad housing + poor sanitation in large towns
  • Birth rates fell in 1830s + again from 1870 because of different laws being created such as the factories banning child labour in 1883. Then in/from 1870 because of spread of birth-control information
  • Overall, the population pre-1970 was still growing, the death rate since the 1800s, eventually the birth rate also declining enough to reach the same level finally bringing natural increase to a halt
  • 20th century phase can be described as natural increase
  • The death rates reached their current lower level around 1950
64
Q

How did Fertility, Mortality and Migration change in the UK?

A
  • 1945-50 - returning soldiers from WW2 start families = ‘baby boom’
  • 1945-50 - migration from former colonies encouraged by government
  • 1960s/70s - emancipation of women following increasing employment = CBR decline
  • 1998 - net migration overtakes natural increase as main driver of growth
  • 2004 - AB countries join EU, with free movement, UK is attractive destination
  • 2010 - points system introduced for international migrants
  • 2016 - Brexit = the UK to leave the EU
65
Q

What is the dependency ratio?

A

It compares the proportion of a population that is economically active with the dependent, or ‘non-productive’ population
- Useful to compare countries + track changes over time

66
Q

How do you calculate the dependency ratio?

A

%under 15 + %65 and over
______________________ x100
%aged 15 - 64

67
Q

What is the difference between the dependency percentage of developed and developing countries?

A
  • Developed countries have a high proportion of elderly dependents
  • Developing countries have a high proportion of young dependents
68
Q

Why is the dependency ratio regarded as a crude measure?

A
  • Some under 15 will work - especially in developing nations
  • Some over 65 will work
  • Over 65s create wealth through work in retirement + spending in the economy (the grey pound)
  • Some over 15 will not be economically active due to time in education, unemployment, illness, caring for others
69
Q

What are the dependency ratios of some example countries?

A
  • UK = 49
  • Japan = 64
  • Ethiopia = 96
  • Vietnam = 47
  • China = 37
  • USA = 47
  • World = 52
70
Q

What does the changing proportion of elderly people in the high and middle income countries of India, USA, UK, China, Germany and Japan look like?

A
  • All seen an increase in people over 65
  • Emerging nations have the highest percentage increase (2010 - 2050), with both India (5-13%) and China (8-26%) more than doubling
  • Japan still has the highest percentage of people 65 and over by 2050 (36%)
  • 5 out of the 6 nations over 20% are aged 65+ years by 2050
71
Q

What is Japan’s dependency ratio estimated to be in 2065?

A

98
(8% = 0-15, 41.5%=65+, 50.5% = 15-65)

72
Q

What are the advantages of an ageing population?

A
  • The elderly have skills that are more useful to employers (e.g. supermarkets)
  • The elderly are also good child carers so that parents can work
73
Q

How will the percentage of 65s change in the world between now and 2035?

A

The percentage is expected to almost double - leap from 7% to 14% - already increasing

74
Q

What will change in the world about the number of over 65s compared to the number of under 5s by 2035?

A

The number of over 65s in the world will outnumber that of under 5s by 2035 - for the first time

75
Q

What challenges does an increasingly older population present?

A
  • People, especially families, would find it hard to care for older people living alone
  • Paying for an unprecedented number of pensioners will be difficult for policy makers
76
Q

Of the 25 countries with the oldest populations, how many are in Europe?

A

23 out of the world’s 25 countries with the oldest populations

77
Q

What proportion of Europe’s population will be at least 65 by 2040?

A

By 2040, more than 1/4 Europeans are expected to be at least 65 (25%)

78
Q

What problems does Japan face as a result of their ageing population?

A
  • Inadequate nursing facilities
  • Depletion of the labour force
  • Deterioration of the economy
  • A trade deficit
  • Migration of Japanese industry to other countries
  • The high cost of funding pensions + health care
  • Falling demand for schools + teachers
  • New jobs needed for the elderly
  • New leisure facilities needed for elderly
  • Increase in the burden on the working population to serve the dependent population
  • Reduced demand for goods from the smaller working population
  • A need for in-migration to fuel any increase in the workforce
79
Q

What measures could be put in place to deal with the problems Japan faces due to their ageing population?

A

The government could:
- Raise taxes
- Raise the retirement age
- Cut back on social welfare programmes
- Increase care in people’s homes