Extra's from voting behaviour and the media Flashcards
Why are social groupings important to politicians
They will try and target and win key groups in order to win elections
What was the most important factor in determining how people voted in 1979
Social class. Most AB voters went con and most DE voters went Lab
What were C1C2 voters known as at this time
Floating voters
What did this mean
Small swings in these groups were essential in determining outcomes
How did 2017 see a resurgence in DE voting for Labour
It rose back up to 59%, a figure last seen in 1997
What did this figure drop down to in 2019
39%
Give some statistics to show how class based voting had declined in recent years
The proportion of AB voters who voted conservative fell from 78% in 1964 to just 40% in 2010, with only a small recovery since
Factors that have caused the decline in class voting
New Labour attracting traditionally middle class conservative voters
Class dealignment - this is a tendency for fewer people to define themselves in terms of class. Social class has declined in importance in UK culture
The main parties, including the Lib Dems have tended to adopt policies that a more centrist and consensual, especiallt since the 1980s so that they can appeal to a wider class base, largely at the centre of society
Rise in the influence of other factors, replacing social class as the key factor in voting behaviour. This helps explain why the cons were able to win each class group in 2019, as a result of Brexit commitment. In 2019 class seemed to be almost irrelevant, with cons winning across all classes, with similar proportions in ABC1C2 voting con and lab and only a small narrowing of the gap in DE
AB in 2019
Con - 45%
Lab - 30%
Turnout - 68%
C1
Con - 45%
Labour 32%
Turnout - 64%
C2
Con - 47%
Lab - 32%
Turnout - 59%
DE
Con - 41%
Lab - 39%
Turnout - 53%
What long term trend with class voting did 2019 align with
Lower turnout amongst lower social groups
What might this explain
New Labour’s success and why a return to more trad Lab values under Corbyn did not result in electoral success
Relationship between class voting and small parties
In 2015, UKIP seemed to make its breakthrough thanks to lower class voters. The Lib Dems were punished less by the AB class for joining the cons than they were by the C2DE class, while the issue of Brexit seemed to be more important for C2DE than ABC1, perhaps explaining why so many of thse people voted UKIP. This perhaps explain why these voters turned to the cons in 2019, allowing them to win across all social groups
What is believed to have happened to the core votes of the big 2 in recent years
Believed to have been eroded
What was party voting tightly bound up with
Social voting
What did party voting mean for parties
They could rely on their core voters to support them and the big 2 would be guaranteed a certain level of support thanks to party loyalty
What caused partisan dealignment since the 1970s
Changes in the economic and class basis
What has been the consequence of partisan dealignment
Meant that the core vote for the major party has been decreased. Also means voters are increasingly likely to vote for parties we would not expect them to vote for. Increasing numbers of DE and AB voters are not voting Lab or Con, as we would expect them to
This was seen most in 2017 and 2019, where high numbers of people in the past who had voted for one party (usually Lab, but sometimes Con) switched allegiances over Brexit. Therefore difficult that many people cast votes out of party loyalty today
Describe the gender gap in voting
Usually quite small, with men and women voting for parties in similar %s, with swings between parties over elections seeming to follow a similar trend
Gender voting in 2019
46-43 Con (Men-women)
Lab - 31-34
Lib Dem 12-12
Why is gender voting still important despite the lack of a big gap
Because it makes up half the pop, a shift of a few % points can be the difference between winning and losing
Give some statistics to show how female voting patterns were more stark than male ones
12 point gap in 1979 compared to 3 point gap for men
20 point gap in 1983 compared to 12 point gap
Give some examples of traditional Labour voting occupations women have begun to make up a higher proportion of since the 1980s
Call centre staff, shop workers and caring professions
Give some examples of things men are slightly more likely to favour
Foreign intervention, nuclear weapons, and nuclear powers
Evaluate the impact of gender
Perhaps too large a social grouping to make effective explantions for electoral results, though small changes in gender voting can have large implications in the national scene
Explain the impact of education until the 1960s
Those with academic qualifications were more likely to be middle class and so were more likely to vote con, as class based voting dominated. Those in heavy industry and more working class professions did not require high education levels, another reason why those with high qualifications were more likely to vote conservative
What caused the impact of education to change
The growth of uni courses and more people having access to them and social factors that saw the end of many industrial jobs
What Labour policy change could education explain
Why Labour has become more focused on socially liberal policies that would not have appealed to trad working class voters
How did 2019 dispute the idea that education is an important factor
The cons were the single most popular party among all education groups. Although their support did decrease with each increasing level of education, they were still 8% ahead of Labour with voters who had a degree
Describe age voting in 1979
Labour had only slightly more support amongst the young and although con support increase up the ages the difference was not large. In the 18-24 age group there was no difference between con and lab
Since when has aged replaced class as the main dividing line
1997
Give some statistics to show how voting changes with age
For every 10 years older a person is, the likelihood they vote con increases by 9 points
For every 10 years older a person is, the likelihood they will vote Lab decreases by 8 points
Give some statistics to show the poor turnout from younger voters
Even in the 2017 youthquake, turnout was only 54%, 15 points below average turnout and much less than the over 65s
When did the reduction in the BAME gap occur
2015-9
How is race important for voting decisions
Creates a lense through which issues like housing, employment and immigration are viewed
What ir regional voting tied to
Class
