2015 + 2019 Election

Question 1

background to 2015 election

Answer 1

• tories had coalition with the lib dems since 2010, and brought in the fixed term parliaments act 2011, and 2015 was the first since then

Question 2

issues in the 2015 election

Answer 2

• expectancy of a hung parliament
• finance and the economy
• budget deficit

Question 3

campaign of 2015 election

Answer 3

• labour and the tory both insisted they were working towards majority government
• torys highlighted dangers of minority labour aligned with SNP
• labour, torys and lib dems all rejected coalition idea with SNP
• labour blamed eachother for the deficit

Question 4

impact of the 2015 election

Answer 4

• 7 way debate with the leaders of labour, tory and lib dems, UKIP, greens, SNP and plaid cymru
• media bashed Ed Miliband (labour) and made him look weak/silly instead of a suitable leader like David Cameron

Question 5

voter behaviour in the 2015 election

Answer 5

• tory won small majority (depsite opinion polls saying they were neck and neck) (C: 36.9% and 330 seats, L: 30.4% 232 seats)
• david cameron only other pm except Mthatch to continue in office after a term of at least 4 years with greater number of seats
• lib dems only had 8 seats (massively underepped)
• ukop had 12.6% of votes but only 1 seat

Question 6

winners bonus at the 2019 general election, and why it occurs

Answer 6

• con had 43.6% of the vote, but 56% of the mps, but if it was truly proportional they should have gotten 280 mps
• labour 32.2% of the vote and 31% of mps
• LD 11.5% of the vote, but 11 mps and should have received 74
• SNP = overepped, 3.9% of the vote, should of had 26 mps but received 48 due to the way constituencies in S are
• seen in 2015, 1997, 1979, and 05 (35% PV and 50% of mps)
• no party has had a over 50% of the popular vote
• 4 hung parliaments
• FPTP avoids this so all the winners can enjoy a winners bonus

Question 7

voting by age in the 2019 general election

Answer 7

• 18-24 tend to vote for progressive parties
  yougov poll: 77% for Lab, LD, SNP and green, while 21% voted for the conservatives
• older demographics are more experienced, and need more security as they support their families (children, education etc) –> not really advocating for change
• 67% on the poll said they voted conservatives (70+)

Question 8

vote by age and gender in the 2019 general election

Answer 8

• women tend to be more socially liberal than their male counterparts
• 35% of the poll said they voted for labour, while only 31% of men did
• women tend to be more concerned with soft social issues, like settling down, childcare etc.
• 65% said they voted labour compared to 46% of men

Question 9

social grade definitions

Answer 9

• A: senior managerial professional
• B: middle manager consultants, barristers
• C1: junior manager, shop managers, non manual work
• C2: skilled manual work
• D: semi skilled unskilled labour
• E: unemployed, casual workers, part time (job insecurity)

Question 10

social grade and voting in the 2019 election

Answer 10

• remainers shift from the labour and conservatives to LD, as labour had an ambiguous brexit position
• increase in conservative votes caused the loss of the red wall –> small marginal loss, but it made a large difference, includes brexiteers who left
• lower social grades who shifted are socially conservative
• AB: 42% in poll while DE: 47% in the poll

Question 11

votes by education level in the 2019 election

Answer 11

• higher education –> more likely to vote for a progressive party
• 68% of those with a degree or above voted for Lab, LD, SNP or green
• younger –> more likely to have a higher education

Question 12

shifts from 2017 voters to 2019 voters

Answer 12

• con and lab both lost votes but labour votes went to con, but con loss was spread out
• POLL: 4% of tory voters in the 2017 election went to labour, but 11% of labour voters went to con
• shift in votes depends on area: in a southern area some lost tory votes makes little difference, but in northern constituencies where there tends to be low turnout a small change can have a large difference

Question 13

what 2 advantages does the conservatives have over labour (2019 election)

Answer 13

• they were closer to voters on issues that mattered in this election
• conservatives were seen as more competent, more united, and better led

Question 14

positional vs valence

Answer 14

POSITION
- closest on policy/specific issues/broader idealogy
- voters disagree about what they want the gov to do

VALENCE
- most competent to run the country
- based on party performance in office - united, capable leader
- voters agree about what they want gov to do

Question 15

positional advantage in the 2019 election

Answer 15

• none of the three main parties were close to the average voter in 2019 (electorate tougher on immigrants/brexit than labour but left of con on economics
• however getting brexit done and immigration was the closest to tories –> SALIENT ISSUES

Question 16

2019 as the brexit election

Answer 16

• single most important problem was brexit
• most talked about issue on television and in the press

Question 17

changing classes in the 2019 election

Answer 17

• 1979: the postwar period, social class and income were indeed powerful influences over voting behaviour, but irrelevant in 2019 –> working class is slightly more conservative
• age and education is a better indication of party to vote for: older and less e = priority to retaining traditional values, and younger are more liberal and cosmopolitan

Question 18

why has labour lost its grip on its working class voters

Answer 18

• many voters have become affluent and moved rightwards on the economic axis
• labour stopped looking and sounding like a working class party: it avoided referring to social class and its mps became overwhelmingly middle class graduates
• labour under tony blair moved decisively to the centre on the economic axis –> winning votes but losing enthusiasm among those who preferred ‘old’ labour ideology
• the red wall was already crumbling for years before brexit

Question 19

valence advantage in the 2019 election

Answer 19

• between 2017 and 2019 there was a 9 percentage point swing from lab to cons due to brexiteers but there no example of this happening vice versa
• 2019: not even 3/10 saw labour fit to govern or trusted them to handle the economy
• Jcorb –> 2017 polling day: 48% saw him fit to lead but in 2019: 17%
  voters saw a competence gap between the two main parties in 2019 –> Con valence advantage (was this truth or a malicious media distortion)

Question 20

realignment and dealignment in the 2019 election

Answer 20

• hard to know where the competence advantage will lie in a years time, let alone by the next election
• age and education look set to remain important influences over voter choice –> more important than social class division: realignment of british electoral pol; social/ideological basis on which people choose
• labour dealignment: labour shift central under blair, shed wc identity and adopted liberal policies to attract the urban educated middle class
• conservatives realignment: brexit gave these dealigned a person to vote for the cons, made elections more vertical
• seen also in S –> vertical dimension was S indp and realignment was from labour to SNP