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politics > 3.1.2.1 Democracy and Participation - why people DO vote > Flashcards

3.1.2.1 Democracy and Participation - why people DO vote Flashcards

1
Q

why people vote

A
  1. social class
  2. partisan alignment
  3. rational decisions
  4. demographic factor (religion, ethnicity, age)
  5. media
  6. leadership –> popularity
  7. campaigns
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2
Q

post war trends in voting

A
  • Punnett: ‘voting is habitual and ingrained’ on voting stability in 1971
  • elections determined by a body of floating voters on key marginal seats (election battleground)
  • domination of 2 key parties –> 1951: C+L had 96.8 of the vote, 1966 - 89.8%, 2010 had 65%
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3
Q

party systems due to voting

A
  • 2 hung parliaments since 2010 (no party wins a majority)
  • 2 party system –> 80% of the seats and/or 90% of the votes
  • multiparty system: range of parties represented in the HoC, as a range of parties get a significant amount of votes
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4
Q

2017 coalition with T May

A
  • May loses tory majority so formed a ‘supply and confidence’ agreement with the DUP to gain a majority of 2 seats
  • gave 1 billion pounds and tories voted in confidence for them
  • DUP reserved the right to say no but agreed
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5
Q

voting in 1964

A

LABOUR
- working class
- North england/midlands
- cities
- welsh or scottish

CONSERVATIVES
- middle class
- rural
- towns

  • labour won despite having smaller constituencies has theirs had a larger population density (tory constituencies are large but with small populations within)
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6
Q

election results in 2010

A
  • LD are big in scotland
  • tories gain midland seats
  • labour are big in scotland
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7
Q

election results in 2015

A
  • multiparty
  • UKIP have 12% of the vote
  • tories win unexpectedly
  • SNP win 56/59 seats in scotland and decimate labour influence (32 seats)
  • labour loses seats in wales and midlands
  • LD only have 11 seats
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8
Q

election results in 2019

A
  • labour loses but have 48 seats
  • lost in North-eastern seats
  • loses the RED WALL –> northern/midlands industrial seats
  • boris johnson wins 365 seats
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9
Q

what is partisanship

A
  • positive attachment to one of the main parties –> usually develops in socialism
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10
Q

tradition class and partisan alignment

A

working class = labour
middle class = tories

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11
Q

why did the working class traditionally vote labour

A
  • workers rights
  • welfare state
  • trade unions: strong affiliation with labour
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12
Q

why did the middle class traditionally vote conservative

A
  • smaller state
  • business/enterprise
  • socially conservative
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13
Q

if there are more working class people statistically in the UK in the 1950s why didnt they win every election

A

because the working class are socially conservative

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14
Q

what middle class people vote for labour and why

A
  • public sector and intellectuals
  • they have partisan alignment not class alignment
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15
Q

partisan alignment since 1970

A
  • class DEALIGNMENT present –> declining relationship between social class and voting
  • embourgeoisement: since 1970 distinctions between social class have been eroded
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16
Q

causes of shifted partisan alignment since 1970s

A
  • increased affluence
  • improved access to higher education
  • changes in the labour market + trade unions
  • more working class employed in private sector
  • shifts in population
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17
Q

decrease in trade union membership

A
  • 13M - 6M
  • jobs like mining etc have disappeared
  • lack of community
  • thatcher came into power and membership decreased,
  • not doing traditional working-class jobs but now teachers, doctors etc
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18
Q

old working class jobs

A
  • service sector work (retail, warehouses etc)
  • low skill and low status
  • the ‘left behind’, less likely to vote, jobs changed from coal miners –> shops
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19
Q

new working class jobs

A
  • plumbers, electricians etc
  • self employed + high paying
  • become middle class by income not mindset
  • vote conservative: socially conservative and do not need the welfare state anymore
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20
Q

university education and voting

A
  • 1951: 1% went to university, 17,300 graduated
  • 1970: 8%, 2023: 49%
  • WORKING CLASS GRADUATES BECOME MIDDLE CLASS BY EDUCATION
  • more likely to be socially liberal with more education
  • more likely to vote labour
  • EDUCATION not CLASS is now a deciding factor with how someone votes, as it shows their likely attitudes
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21
Q

why do ethnic minorities tend to vote labour

A
  • immigration policies
  • welfare state
  • representation
  • enoch powell: ‘rivers of blood speech’
  • pro-multiculturalism
22
Q

enoch powell rivers of blood speech

A
  • attacked british immigration policy
  • said it will be storing up political tensions (violence in the streets) in 1968
  • gave the conservatives a racist named
23
Q

difference between multiculturalism in france vs Britain

A
  • FRANCE : assimilation
  • BRITAIN: relaxed, promoted diversity –> criticised as ethnic minorities tend to be ostracised and create homegrown terrorists as a result
24
Q

why did pakistanis and bangladeshis vote less for labour in 2010

A
  • iraq war –> lost support from these groups due to labour involvement in the war
25
Q

what is issue voting versus rational choice

A

issue voting –> making a decision based on an issue that is topical: education etc.

rational choice –> weighing up different parties on a rational basis: electorate becomes more volatile
- not on an election to election basis, but in periods of time

26
Q

5 things that influence voter behaviour

A
  1. salience issue –> matter to particular voters (brexit, immigration, NHS education
  2. positional issues –> each parties position on particular issues and how close they are to the position of the voter
  3. valence issues –> have most importance to most voters - successful economy, good healthcare; new labour post 1997 under cameron: idealogical issues are less pronounced
  4. economic voting: look to who will manage the economy best or think they are better suited
  5. competency voting: most competent with economy and leadership
27
Q

78-79 winter of discontent

A
  • period of mass striking from trade unions from many sectors
  • people voted for thatcher to curb this as she wanted to reduce the power of the trade unions
  • therefore she removed the nationalisation of most industries eg the railroads
28
Q

labour 97 tony blair after thatcher

A
  • accepted thatchers changes and moved on instead of reforming them
  • conservatives then saw themselves as the bad guys and become more socially liberal (cameron and gay marriage)
  • now a closeness between L and C idealogies
29
Q

2022 and 1992 conservatives economic failures

A
  • lost rep for economic competency
  • people will excuse problems with a leader as long as the economy is preserved
30
Q

GE popular issues and who actually won

A
  • 2005: defence and foreign terrorism due to the iraq war
  • april 2015: immigration due to refugees from syrian war + NHS
  • labour is seen as the best party at handling healthcare in april 2015 (36%) but do not win the GE where NHS was a key issue, so it is voting is not just about competency
31
Q

what are ‘shy tories’

A
  • say they will vote for other parties as it is more socially acceptable, but in reality they vote for tories as they do not do well with the economy
  • polling data cannot be trusted
32
Q

British leaders that demonstrate good experience

A
  • thatcher: min of education
  • sunak: chancellor
  • Johnson: mayor of london, foreign sec
  • liz truss
  • may: home sec for 6 years
  • Brown: chancellor
33
Q

british leaders that demonstrate poor experience

A
  • david cameron
  • tony blair
  • kier starmer
  • J corb
  • cam and blair still became prime ministers for an extended period
34
Q

british leaders that demonstrate good communication skills

A
  • Johnson
  • Cameron
  • Blair - ‘education, education, education’
  • Thatcher
  • Brown
35
Q

british leaders that demonstrate poor communication skills

A
  • sunak
  • truss
  • corbyn
  • theresa may
36
Q

british leaders that have good programmes

A
  • Johnson
  • cameron
  • blair –> change after the tories
  • thatcher –> people did not like her but knew her actions were a necessity
37
Q

british leaders that have poor programmes

A
  • corbyn –> policies that people liked but altogether would prove too expensive
  • truss
  • may: VAT on unemployed people
38
Q

british leaders who knew the political climate

A
  • thatcher: winter of discontent
  • T blair
  • johnson
  • cameron
39
Q

leaders who were good with crisis and one who wasnt

A
  • blair: handled princess dianas death sensitively with public opinion
  • thatcher: winter of discontent
  • gordon brown: financial crisis handled really well, also international influence on how to handle
  • BUT, johnson and covid handled poorly
40
Q

what is mass media

A
  • TV
  • radio
  • newspapers
  • magazines
  • cinema
  • video
  • advertising
41
Q

what do the media do in politics

A
  • hold politicians to account by checking and scrutinising them
  • commentary and analysis of events
  • report events
  • educate the public
  • forum for debate
  • means of communication betwen politicians and the public
  • investigate and bring to the publics attention
42
Q

tory press

A
  • telegraph
  • express –> 176,264 in 2023
  • mail –> 797,704 in 2023
  • they are also high in circulation, so have a high readership
43
Q

broadcast media

A
  • BBC and ITV are required to be impartial
  • newscasters are rarely accused of bias but special correspondents are often accused of using loaded language
  • influence can be more subtle (how media uses videos and pictures to subvert who is the agressor and the innocent party)
44
Q

examples of media influence

A
  • BBC bias towards remain
  • ## misreporting on JCorb views –> 52% of the articles about him are not about his own views
45
Q

influences of the sun

A

Sustained attack on the Labour leader Neil Kinnock in the 1980s and 1990s.

1977 –> switches support from the conservatives to labour

They supported the Tories in 1992 and they won despite Labour being
favourites – ‘It’s The Sun Wot Won It’.

They moved back to Labour in 1997 and they won, maintaining power for 13 years.

However, they backed the Tories in 2009 – ‘Labour’s Lost It’.

Anti Milliband in 2015 (as was the Mail)

In 2015 the Sun backed the Tories but the Scottish sister paper backed the
SNP despite campaigning against the SNP in the national various. Confused?

Anti-Corbyn in 2017

Is The Sun really that influential or do they simply know when the time is right
to switch allegiance? Do they influence voters or do they take into account
the views of their readership and adapt?

The quality broadsheets tend to be more balanced a they will lose credibility
with their readership if they are too biased. Their readership tends to be more
educated.

46
Q

different theories explaining media influence

A

Reinforcement theory – Lazarsfeld

Birch – exposure to predisposed opinions

1970s onwards – GUMG – media sets agenda

What we think about if not what we think

Outlook of journalists - Liberal Metropolitan Elite?

Examples – Euro scepticism and immigration, tabloid/celebrity, royal family, sexy dossier, expenses scandal, fake news, sexual scandal

47
Q

party political broadcasts

A

Unlike America political broadcasting is illegal

During elections and other times parties are
allocated time on terrestrial TV.

Normally 5 minutes long – on pro rota basis
Lab/Con get 5 broadcasts. LDs get 3.

48
Q

opinion polls

A
  • find the public’s opinion
  • governments/opposition and media find it
  • conducted by companies
  • can be targeted to specific demographic –> topical group for an election (working class northerners and the red wall)

1) boomerang –> 1992,2015
- polls predict how people will vote if they are done close to the election
- banned as it influenced voter behaviour

2) bandawagon effect –> 1997,1979 (thatcher)
- people vote with the majority/jump on the bandwagon due to an opinion poll

3) media impact on politics
- reinforcement theory: lazerfield, only reinforces peoples views rather than change them
- pose the risk of entering a political ecochamber

49
Q

directors of communication

A
  • eg alistair campbell
  • control the narrative in the media, manipulate the narrative in their favour
  • use issues like 9/11 to detract from bad things they have done which are relatively less important at the time
50
Q

issue voting evidence

A

Salient issues
- the Winter of Discontent in 1979, Tory Sleaze in 1997, the Financial Crisis 2010 or Brexit in 2019.

Competency/economic/valence
- 79/83/97, 97, 10
- 92, 2005, 2015

Leadership
- Thatcher, Blair, Cameron, Johnson😊
- Kinnock, Brown, Milliband, May 😔

51
Q

demographics evidence

A

Class
- Was important 1966 – 69% of DE voted Lab, 1997 – 59%
- 2017 - AB – 46% Cons, DE – 44% Lab
- 2019 - AB – 425 Cons, DE – 34% Lab

Ethnicity
- Regularly 65%+ Lab, 1997 – 82% Black, 64% BAME 2019

Age
- 1960s not significant BUT
- 2017 –> 18-24 – 64% Lab, 70+ - 69% Cons
- 2019 –> 18-29 – 22% voted Cons, 70+ 67% voted Tory

52
Q

media evidence

A
  • Newspapers: Bias, Tory press – Kinnock, Milliband and Corbyn.
    Sun supports winning party – 2015 both Cons and SNP. Expenses Scandal. Reinforcement? Polls
    boomerang 92/15 but bandwagon 1997.

TV Debates
- Cleggmania (no impact on outcome), Milliband, May both looked weak in 2015 and 2017 respectively

Social media
- Facebook, X etc. Often highly partisan and ill

politics (25 decks)

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