3.2) The intuitive logics school of scenario building ("The Shell School") Flashcards
1
Q
Main Schools
A
- The Intuitive-Logics School
- Michael Porter’s Industry Scenarios
- The Probabilistic Modified Trends School
- La Prospective
2
Q
Intuitive-logics - steps and tools
A
3
Q
Uncertainty
A
-
Risks
- enough historical precedent in the form of similar events, to enable us to estimate probabilities for various possible outcomes
-
Structural uncertainties
- possibility of an event which is unique enough not to provide us with an indication of likelihood
- possibility of events presents itself by means of cause/effect chain of reasoning
- no evidence of judging the likelihood
-
Unkowables
- we cannot imagine the event
- they have been in the past and they will come again but we have no clue what they are
4
Q
Iceberg
A
from events to deep causes
5
Q
Structural uncertainties
A
Key uncertainties
Criteria: Importance/Impact - Uncertainty - Independence
- critical driver for understanding the future dynamics of the focal issue
- basis for the development of scenarios
- define the dynamics that must be monitored
- crucial to find answers towards them
6
Q
Criterias for scenario matrix
A
- Expressiveness - can you identify (contrasted and clear) ‘high concepts’?
- Relevance (to the focal issue) - does the matrix ‘illuminate’ the key issue?
- Plausibility - do plausible stories appear?
- Independence - are the key uncertainties sufficiently independent?
- Divergency - do divergent stories appear (different from each other)?
- Challenging - does it pose different and relevant challenges to strategic decision-making?+
when similar uncertainties can be grouped
7
Q
Scenarios high concepts
A
- for each scenario choose a small set of deep causes that together create the most compelling starting point for a scenario
- inside each quadrant, describe how these “deep causes” relate to one another (interaction effects between them)
