4.1) Implications and options. Exploring scenarios using different strategy tools

Question 1

The internal and external world

Answer 1

Question 2

Implications of the scenarios

Answer 2

• Implications of each scenario (in general and for the strategic focus)
• Any common implications across all scenarios?
• Any categories of implications emerging? (across two or more scenarios)
• General implications or categories of implications?
• Common lines between the scenarios?
• Threats and opportunities

Question 3

Assessing the implications

Answer 3

Question 4

Examples: Implications for the company

Answer 4

Question 5

Options

Answer 5

Analyse the firm’s current position, cosnidering that different scenarios are plausible in the long term

• Which options should we take?
• Which options can we take?
• Which projects should we/can we implement?
• Any common options across all scenarios?
  
  • clsuter these and see if they start to a form a set of options/actions - an emergent strategy
• Considering our strengths and weaknesses >> continuation of the link to the SWOT analysis

Question 6

How well do our current strategies stand up to each scenario?

Answer 6

Question 7

Strategic responses

Answer 7

Question 8

Scenarios and Internal Factors of Competitiveness (IFCs)

Answer 8

Question 9

Scenarios and the Ansoff matrix

Answer 9

• ansoff and scenario planning = complementary
• Ansoff can be used to identify alternative entry-market strategies
• scenarios can be used to
  
  • scan the environment
  • explore plausible and relevant futures
  • identify key market drivers
• then use the Ansoff matrix to develop and test product and market alternatives for each identified scenario
• can be a creative way to develop all product-market alternatives and then combine it with plausible market scenarios

Question 10

Business Model Canvas

Answer 10

a shared language for describing, visualizing, assessing, and changing business models

• BMC = one-page template for describing a new or documenting an exisiting business model
  
  • flexible model to describe the key elements
• tool resembles a painter’s canvas
• works best when printed out on a large surface so groups of people can jointly start sketching and discussing business model elements with post-its and board markers
• hands on tool that fosters understanding, discussion, creativity, and analysis

Question 11

Business model canvas -> scenarios

Answer 11

Scenarios render the abstract tangible

• goal of combining scenarios with BM - help organization prepare for the future
• forces reflection on how a business model might have to evolve under certain conditions
• sharpens understanding of model and of potentially necessary adaptions

Question 12

Phase V: Monitor

Answer 12

Identify srt or precursor/early indicators

-> they might indicate that some implications are becoming more relevant and that some uncertainties configurations might become more plausible

Question 13

Early indicators

Answer 13

• objective and subjective elements
• scanning exercise
• where to look?
• trends and small (and large) signs of potentially great change
• look back at scenarios and elements that support them (e.g., kex uncertainties)

Question 14

The use of forecasts in foresighting

Answer 14

Question 15

How has our thinking changed

Answer 15

Question 16

Knowing and acting

Answer 16