4 Voting Behaviour and the Media Flashcards
Social Class
Grade A, B, C1, Middle class would traditionally vote Conservative
Grade C2, D, E, Working class would traditionally vote Labour
1974-1992 over 50% of A, B, C1 class people voted Conservative
Class is still important
despite the drop, a plurality of middle-class voters still vote Conservative
Working class voters were increasing for Labour until 2019
class links to other factors like education
trend of middle class voting Labour and working class voting Conservative in 21st century. despite not voting for traditional parties there is still correlation
Class is not important
Conservative Party won a number of ‘red wall’ seats in 2019, traditionally held by Labour
majority of voters no longer vote in line with traditional expectations of their class
other factors like age, region and ethnicity seem to be more important
Why has class voting changed?
class dealignment - as occupations in society have changed people are less likely to associate with a specific class
partisan dealignment - as party policies have changed and political education has increased, people are less likely to have loyalty to one party, but vote on issues relevant at each election
Gender
little evidence gander effects voting behaviour over the last 50 years
marginal trend that more men support the Conservatives and more women support Labour
men and women prioritise different issues - women favour increased spending and oppose cuts to public services
Age
younger voters more likely to support Labour, older voters more likely to support the Conservatives
21st century, over 55s vote for Conservatives with majority, 18-24 year old vote for Labour with majority
sharp spike in this trend in the last 3 elections
Ethnicity
notable trend for black and minority ethnic (BME) voters to vote Labour
less trend for white voters but more vote Conservative
Education
The last 2 elections have seen a trend of those with no qualifications voting Conservative (59% in 2019) and those with a degree voting Labour
education is closely linked to other factors
Region
prior to 2019, there was a north-south divide with Labour doing well in the North and Conservatives doing well in the South
traditional urban-rural divide with Labour doing well in cities and Conservative in the country side
2019 Conservative gained a number of seats in the ‘red wall’ in traditional northern Labour heartlands
Northwest - +1.3% vote change to Conservative
-8.4% vote change to Labour
Other factors effecting behaviour
rational choice voting and governing competency expectations, issue voting
valence - how much a voter trusts the party to deliver on promises and govern well
party leadership - personality, trust, reliability, experience
party manifestos - what policies a party is offering
tactical voting, turnout, the media
opinion polls - may increase voting if they indicate a close result
2010 General Election circumstances
global economic crisis created division over whether the solution was austerity or spending
Daily Telegraph broke the ‘expenses scandal’ story
first televised leadership debates, Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg was very successful - Cleggmania
Gordon Brown caught on a microphone called an older voter a ‘bigoted woman’
The Sun switched to support Labour - The Sun Backs Blair
Cameron reflected more centrist Tory policy
2015 General Election circumstances
greater public optimism in UK economics
rise of UKIP = idea of an EU referendum
televised debates expanded to include 7 party leaders - ranked lowly in effecting voters
inaccurate polls predicted a close race
SNP became the 3rd largest party in Parliament
day after the election, 3 party leaders resigned within the same hour (Labour, Lib Dem, UKIP)
2017 General Election circumstances
major economic issue = UK’s relationship with the EU
a snap election (under Fixed-term Parliaments Act) to strengthen the governments ability to negotiate Brexit
UKIP vote collapsed from 12.6% in 2015 to 1.8%
two major parties both saw increase in their vote share - 82% between the two
Corbyn and Abbott got negative press for inability to answer the costs of their policies
May commented there was ‘no magic money tree’ before finding £1bn for Northern Ireland
2019 General Election circumstances
all parties pledged to increase NHS spending
fear of a no-deal Brexit remained
snap election called after Johnson replaced May in July then failed to get Parliament to support a revised withdrawal agreement from the EU
Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson lost her seat and resigned
numerous MPs resigned from their parties 2017 to 2019 including some who went to form the new Independent Group for Change in Parliament
Jacob Rees-Mogg had to apologise for comments made about the Grenfell Tower fire
1979 General Election
turnout 76%
Thatcher 44% 339 seats
Callaghan 37% 269 seats
1979 impact of issues
1978-79 Winter of Discontent - series of strikes
40 year high of unemployment - 1.5m in 1978
1979 Scottish devolution defeated - led to vote of no confidence in the government and the election
all 3 main parties had new leaders, first woman leader of Conservatives
1979 impact of the campaign
Conservative party campaigned on the slogan ‘Labour isn’t working’, its manifesto focused on economic balance and reducing union power
labour implied voters should not elect a woman
Labour campaign entitled ‘The Labour Way is the Better Way’, focused on inflation and improving industrial relations
1979 impact of party leaders
Thatcher explicitly called on Labour voters to vote for her saying the Labour party was extreme
Callaghan was seen as oblivious to the industrial unrest the country faced
advertising agency Saatchi & Saatchi worked on honing Thatcher’s image, softening the ‘Iron Lady’
voice changing
1979 impact of the media
the Sun supported the Conservative Party and published the famous line ‘Crisis? What crisis?’ mocking Callaghan
televised debates were suggested but Thatcher did not wish to take part
1997 General Election
turnout 71%
Blair 43% 418 seats
Major 31% 165 seats
1997 impact of issues
Conservatives had been in power for 18 years, scandals had emerged in recent years
UK was forced out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in 1992 leading to Black Wednesday, questioning the Conservative’s economic ability
The Referendum Party wanted an EU referendum, threatened to split Conservative vote
1997 impact of the campaign
Labour re-branded as ‘New Labour’, abandoning Clause IV and endorsing market economics - this ‘third way’ appealed to a wide range of voters
Conservative manifesto ‘You can only be sure with the Conservatives’ tried to emphasise stability
‘New Labour, New Danger’ demonstrated an aggressive campaigning method
for Labour, ‘spin’ became important, seeing the rise of spin doctors like Alastair Campbell
1997 impact of party leaders
Blair was 43, relatively young and had proven himself charismatic on the campaign trail
Major was seen as dull, the satirical TV show Spitting Image portrayed him with a grey puppet
1997 impact of the media
The Sun supported Tony Blair ‘The Sun Backs Blair’
the internet was just beginning but the BBC created the BBC Politics 97 service to document the election campaign
