4. Voting behaviour and the media Flashcards
(111 cards)
1
Q
Floating / swing voter
A
Voters that doesn’t have a strict ideology and does not vote for a set party (vote is unpredictable and might change)
2
Q
Core voter
A
Stays loyal to one party and votes for a specific party regularly
3
Q
Class dealignment
A
Process where individuals no longer identify themselves as belonging to a certain class and for political purposes fail to make a class connection to their voting pattern
4
Q
Partisan dealignment
A
Process where individulas no longer identify themselves on a long term basis by being associated with a particular political party
5
Q
Governing competency
A
The perceived ability of the governing party in office to manage affairs of the state well and effectivly
6
Q
Disillusion and apathy
A
Public becoming less engaged with the politcal process
7
Q
Manifesto
A
A parties plan and promises that would be put in place if that party were to take power
8
Q
Mandate
A
Authoirity to govern
9
Q
What is the biggest demographic factors determining voting behaviour?
A
- Class
- Gender
- Education
- Age
- Ethnicity
- Religion
10
Q
Determining voting behaviour : Class
A
- Class can influence various forms of typical behaviour, including political attitudes and voting trends
- It should be noted that the term ‘class’ has a contested definition and can be used to include many different aspects
- In 1979, 80% of people voted the way their social class indicated
- Both major parties having strong roots in class
- The AB class (the top 20%) stayed loyal to conservative until as late as 2010, when only 40% of them voted conservative
- Class dealignment has been important, this means less and less people define themselves in terms of class, especially with the rise of the Liberal Democrats
11
Q
Determining voting behaviour : Gender
A
- By gender, what parties often mean is ‘women’, as there is little evidence of any specific tactic to reach out to male voters or minority gender groups Eg. Such as Labours 2015 ‘woman to woman’ pink minibus that visited 75 constituencies and encouraged women to vote
- Some issues, such as health and education, are more likely to win over women unlike topics such as nuclear weapons and foreign intervention which are more likely to win over men
- It is unclear if there is a defined ‘woman’s’ vote or not, as, in terms of percentage points, there is minimal difference
- The changing gender roles in the UK has made this point less and less significant
- Gender is too large of a social grouping to differentiate
12
Q
Determining voting behaviour : Education
A
- Until 1960s people with more education tended to be middle class and so would vote with how their class usually voted
- Due to the growth of university courses and the end of many industrial jobs, impact of education on politics changed
- More likely to vote Labour or Liberal democrats with more education (47% who held a degree were likely to vote lib dems or labour, 53% with no formal qualifications vote conservative)
- Conservative is the single most populated party across all educational groups in 2019 and decreased with each new level of educational achievement but still at least 8% ahead of labour throughout
13
Q
Determining voting behaviour : Age
A
- Until the 1990s women were more likely to vote for the Conservatives than men as men were in work and therefore could join trade unions and house wives would have a more similar ideology to the Conservative party being more tradditional
Howver this has declined and there is not little difference between what men and women now vote - In 1979 Labour had slightly more support with younger voters, Conservative increased support with older voters, there was no large difference
- People tended to get more pro Conservative as they got older (i.e. after 39) gain more assets, they usually become more self centered and focus less on wider social issues
- 1980s - 90s : Britain moved from industrial economy to service based economy so fewer jobs in ‘class based’ sectors, more focus on white collar, office based jobs
- Property ownership has risen, more people seek to buy homes + become less reliant on state support
- Rise of gig economy, more flexible and less well protected jobs, focused on young workers, less interested in traditional Conservative party policies
- Young voters are less likely to turnout than older people, so conservatives try to appeal to older voters
14
Q
Determining voting behaviour : Ethnicity
A
- There is no automatic reason why any political party should by people of any given ethnicity as in an equal society race should not play a major role in politics
- All offical registed political parties support a racially tolerant mixed society, with members from all ethnic groups having the same rights in the UK
- Conservative party has had a history of rhetoric and supporters opposing immigration and equal rights while Labour has passed the majoirty of anti discirmination legislation when in power in the past
- Some parties such as Reform, UKIP and the Brexit claiming to be racially tolerant but their actions and policies could be seen as discriminatory Eg. Windrush scandal of 2019
- Evidence from elections shows that minoirty voters are more likely to vote for the Labour party often in quite large margins
15
Q
Determining voting behaviour : Region
A
- London (22% lead) and the North are more likely to vote Labour, as well as South Wales but the southeast corner of England as well as the south more generally is more likely to vote Conservative
- Labour has a 16% lead over the Conservatives in the North and the Conservatives have a 25% lead over Labour in the South
- Scotland is currently relatively volatile between Labour and the SNP
- Geographical factors might actually be class factors in disguise, due to the areas that Labour poll better in typically being ‘in decline’
- Regional factors were secondary to Brexit in the 2019 election, with the so-called Red Wall collapsing due to that single issue
16
Q
2024 election age demographic stats
A
- Only 8% voted of 18 to 24 year old voting for the Conservatives in the 2024 election
- On the other hand voters 46% age 70+ voted for the Conservatives
17
Q
How did most people vote in the 50s and 60s?
A
In the 50s and 60s most people voted on class lines (working people for Labour and middle class for the middle class) creating very little change
18
Q
When did partisan alignment stop?
A
Until 1970, where 40% is the population said they constituently voted for the same part
19
Q
What shows the potential of a shift from class alingment?
A
- The emergence of the lib dems in the 90s and earnt 62 seats in 97 showing the change Im voting behaviour from the two main parties
- A growing multi party system with parties like UKIP, Plaid Cymru and the Green parties
20
Q
Valence voting
A
Voters agree on revlevant issues but disagree on the how to go about them (typically the economy is seen more competent for the Conservatives and heathcare is seen as more competent for Labour)
21
Q
What is the most important issues for Labour and the Conservatives?
A
- Labour issues = NHS, spending cuts, brexit and poverty
- Conservative issues = The right leadership, the econcomy / jobs and immigration
22
Q
Is the leader of a political party a signifigant factor?
A
- The correct leader is becoming increasingly important than the party they represent more similar the US presidential system Eg. David Cameron and Tony Blair
- This can also damage a party or help it win favour Eg. Jeremy Corbyn was not liked but David Cameron was more popualr than the Conservatives
23
Q
Labour results in 2017 election (18 - 24 year olds)
A
66% of 18 to 24 year old’s voted Labour in 2017
24
Q
Why does turnout from one election to another?
A
- Different issues influencing people whether to vote or not vote
- 2001 lowest turnout since 1945 as Blairs New Labour was such a dominant party
25
What is the relationship between age and turnout and has this relationship been consistently seen in all elections since 2001?
- The impact of age on voting patterns is distorted by the fact that there is a great difference between turnout among different age groups Eg. Younger voters turnout is lower than older voters
- Between 1992 and 2015, voting among young people fell by approximately 19% and in comparison tunout among other groups had remained steady particualry 55+ voters
- In 2017 there was a reported 'youth quake' with the press reporting a large surge in young voters helping Labour preform better than intially suspected and prehas costing the Conservatives a majoity
- However, in 2019 voting between 18 - 24 year old's that increased by 11% in 2017 decreased to 47% prehas showing that the 'youth quake was more of a blip than a signifigant change
26
What are the main reasons for the decline in turnout among younger voters?
- There is widespread disillusion with conventional politics among younger people
- Younger people are finding alternative ways of participating in political activites such as social media, e petitions and direct action, which could move away from conventional activites like voting
- Younger people tend to be intrested more in single issues than in broad political ideologies creating less intrest in political parties but increased participation in pressure group activity / online campaigning
- Younger voter may feel that they have to abstain and not vote as they do not believe that any of the parties is worthy of their support
27
What is the relationship between class and turnout?
- Members of class AB are much more likely to vote than of members of DE
- The portion of the class that turns up in support of the Labour party is much smaller than their Conservative counterparts of AB
28
What are the main reasons why C2 and DE voters might not vote?
- The main reason why people don’t vote is that pople do not think that there vote will make a difference
- People will also vote if they don’t understand the issues and if those issues relate to them in some direct way
29
29
30
31
32
Do you think the way to encourage C2 and DE voters to the polling station would be the same as for younger people?
- No this may be more a matter of appeasing to their issues and giving out more information on parties which is unbiased
- However, the easiest thing to do in order to make people vote is to introduce cumpolsury voting and have a fine option so that turnout is higher and in turn creates a more legitimate and representive government Eg. Australia has introduced this and now they have a turnout over 90%
32
What is an exmaple of valence voting?
- Voters make their decision based on the party or candidate that they think is most likely to run the country effectively, especially in relation to the economy
- Many believe this is the most important issue
33
What is issue voting
- Suggests that voters will vote on one issue that means a lot to them
- This is particularly the case in the USA, for example over abortion rights
- However it has a role to play in British elections as well as Brexit is an obvious example, but the environment, terrorism and the government’s response and military action (e.g. the 1983 election after the Falklands War) are also issues that have dominated elections
33
What is rational choice within voting?
- When voters scrutinize the manifesto and policies of a party, and decide which party will govern most effectively for them as individuals
- This reduces the voting decision to one based on logic, rather than emotio.
34
What factors affect individual voting?
- Tactical voting
- The image and reputation of the party
- The leader and whether they seem ‘Prime Ministerial’
- Key issues during the campaign
- How parties have performed in office
- Party manifestos
35
1983 election : Why was Thatcher seen as a war hero by 1983 who was “not for turning”?
- Thatcher was seen as a strong leader and war hero following the Falklands war
- Her no turning back attitude ("the lady's not for turning") captivated many voters
36
1983 election : Why was Foot seen as out-of-touch with the changing zeitgeist of the UK?
- Foot was seen as weak and far too radical to appeal to a growing middle class
- He was only truly popular amongst trade unionists and the non-property owning working class
37
1983 election : How had measures such as the Employments Acts and the Housing Act showed that the Conservatives were right for both the times and disillusioned Labour voters?
- The Housing Act introduced right-to-buy for council homes, which was an incredibly popular measure
- The Employement Acts restricted Trade Union action to prevent a repeat of 1979 and highlighted the Conservatives as an "aspirational" party
38
1983 election : Why had events of 1979 create serious damage to Labour Party’s image?
Labour had swung significantly to the left compared to Callaghan, and their links to increasingly unpopular unions did not help
39
1983 election : What were the New Right” themes in the Conservative Manifesto that tapped into the zeitgeist?
- A continuation of monetarism (free-market, tax and spending cuts, etc.) despite high unemployment and inflation.
- NATO support, expansion of Trident and opposing the USSR
- Greater powers to the police; more authoritarian law and order policies
40
1983 election : Why was the Labour Party’s manifesto dubbed the “longest suicide note in History”?
- Nationalisation and increased public spending, high taxes on the wealthy and redistribution of wealth
- Welfare, social housing, workers rights all to be expanded
- Unilateralism and a conciliatory approach to the USSR, as well as distancing from the US and focusing more on wider international cooperation
- Tough on the causes of crime, rather than crime itself
41
1983 election : What key messages did the Conservatives push and get right?
Conservative campaign focused on national security and inflation
42
1983 election : Why were the socio-economic circumstances of the early 1980s not in fact favourable for the Tories?
- Bad economic circumstances
- However, the April 1982 Falklands invasion and subsequent war saw the government framed as patriotic and bold, and this gave an unpopular Thatcher a confidence (and poll) boost
43
1983 election :
- Winter of discontent (78 / 79) still stuck with Labour ; struggles between Labour and Trade Unions undermined their reputation
- Callaghan in 1982 / 83: "I wish I'd had a war."
44
1983 election : What was the SDP-Liberal Alliance and why did it play such a pivotal role in the election outcome?
- Labour had shifted dramatically to the left and Thatcher was unpopular; there was a centre-left gap filed by the SDP (a group of dissenter Labour MPs and the Liberal Party)
- They took 25.4% of the national vote share, compared to Labour's 27.6%, a majority of votes between them. FPTP means they did not win many seats.
45
1997 election : How had Spitting Image and a “back to basics” speech helped to cultivate an image of “boring John Major”?
- Seen as boring and old; portrayed by Spitting Image as an old grey man who ate dinner with his wife in silence
- 1993 "back to basics" speech appealed for socially conservative values i.e. the traditional family - not only was this out of touch but somewhat hypocritical in light of sleaze between 1992-97
46
1997 election : How and why did Blair tap into the “Cool Britannia” zeitgeist?
Much younger than former Prime Ministers (aged 43)
47
1997 election : Why were the Conservatives seen as a party of “sleaze” and division by 1997?
- Lots of Sleaze in the Conservative Party Eg. Heritage Minister David Mellor resigned in 1992 after he had an affair with an actress , Neil Hamilton resigned in '94 after having an affair with a councillor and a Conservative MP was found dead in very compromising circumstances, and cash for questions plagued the party
- The Conservatives were very divided over Europe
- John Major faced a leadership challenge in 1995 from John Redwood
- John Major was not able to control the Conservative Party.
48
1997 election : How had New Labour reinvented themselves since the “longest suicide note”?
- Repealed Clause IV of the manifesto; removing their commitment to nationalisation.
- All the New Labour branding was much more modern than the 1983 "old Labour" (the Labour Rose was newish) - even the name had been changed
- Labour are almost seen as a different party
49
1997 election : Who is an example of a spin doctor and what did he do?
- Alistair Campbell
- New branding made the Party more "electable" for C1C2 voters, as well as voters in the South of England
50
1997 election : How did the Conservative Party’s manifesto show that they had not truly let go of Thatcherism?
The 1997 Conservative Manifesto was essentially Thatcherism 2, reducing basic rate of income tax, more privatisation and tax cuts for nuclear families
51
1997 election : Why were Labour’s “Pledge Cards” a perfect example of “catch all” politics?
- Labour issued "pledge cards" in 1997, essentially pocket manifestos
- Cutting waiting lists, class sizes, people on benefits etc. to appeal to the wider public.
- "Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime" - very SDP esque in the sense that it was more economically left-wing and socially Conservative
52
1997 election : What key messages did the Conservatives push and get wrong?
- The Conservatives were very reactionary and their adverts made it look like Labour was already in government
- The campaign was a negative one, which did not resonate with the "Cool Britannia" zeitgeist
53
1997 election : How did the “spin doctors” help guide the Labour Party to victory (e.g. the “Anti-sleaze Candidate” and what song did they choose as their election anthem?
- Almost presidential campaign from Labour; Blair was front and centre.
- "Things Can Only Get Better" as an election anthem was incredibly optimistic and chaneled a sense of optimism and patriotism
54
1997 election : Why had the Conservatives lost economic credibility by 1997?
- Crashing out of the ERM in 1992 saw "Black Wednesday", which gutted the economy and 15% interest rate
- People remembered this, even though the economy had recovered by 1996
55
1997 election : Why did the emerging “Cool Britannia” zeitgeist favour the Labour Party?
Blair had a younger, more with the times vibe to him, inviting music stars to Number 10 such as Noel Gallagher of Oasis
56
1997 election : Did the Lib Dem surge hurt Labour or the Conservatives?
- The Liberal SDP merger into the Liberal Democrats had occurred by this point
- The Liberal Democrats won 6 by-elections between 1992 and 97.
- Ashdown agreed to support Labour in the event of a hung-parliament (due to agreements over Constitutional Reform)
- Despite having a falling vote share, the Liberal Democrats won an 26 additional seats on 1992, mainly thanks to tactical voting against the Conservatives
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58
59
2019 election : How important was Boris Johnson’s media image and reputation as London Mayor?
- Johnsons' image was tarnished by several scandlas Eg. Socialized with the son of an ex KGB officer, Boris island and faced criticism for his handling of claims about his then deputy mayor
- He resonated with blochise masculinity some and used masculine locations and figures to display tradditional ideas of masculinity linked to strength and toughness Eg. Building sites, and factories
60
2019 election : Why was Jeremy Corbyn such a decisive figure?
- Clear policies : Set up a clear anti austerity platform, vote to scrap trident, Britian should establish a national investment bank and aim to eliminate budget deficet over time
- Corbyn was not only backed into the Labour leaderhsip, but went on to gain the largest increase in the partys share of the vote in the 2017 election since WW2
61
2019 election : How united did the Conservatives appear in the wake of Theresa May’s resignation?
- The general membership of the party elected the leader and Boris Johsnon was elected with twice as many votes as his opponent Jermery Hunt
- This showed the Conservative party was despite the circumstances quote united in their idea for a new party leader
- Boris unlike May curated his cabinet with close alliances instead of Mays more diverse cabinet
62
2019 election : How was Labour’s reputation damaged by antisemitism and internal disputes over Brexit?
- A report by the UK's huma rights watchdog found Labour to be responsible for 'unlawful' acts of harassment and discimination and The Eqaulity and Human rights Commision identified flailing's in leaderhsip and mishandling of anti semetic complaints
- As of 2024 a poll showed that over 40% of the British public still viewed the Labor party as anti semetic and almost a 1/3 of the misconduct allegation reviewed by Labours ruling body last year involoved antisemitism
63
2019 election : Why was the Conservatives message seen as clearer on Brexit?
- Used the message of 'Get Brexit done'
- People were fed up with Brexit being dragged out for over 3 years allowing Johnson to attract much of the 'Red wall' (Labour seats that voted in favour of Brexit)
64
2019 election : What key messages did the Johnson and the Conservatives push and get right?
- The conservatives manifesto was called 'get Brexit done 'and the vagueness of the title helped the Conservatives increase appeal to people who wanted a soft and hard Brexit alike
- Pushed for harder immigration policy similar to the Australian 'points' model
- Not much within the manifest had appealed to young voters
64
2019 election : Why did Labour find it difficult to present a clear approach to Brexit?
- Labour was critised for having a convoluted and opaque governance structure meaning that policy delay and a weak media stratergy
- Doubled down the 2017 strategy of essentially ignoring Brexit and focusing on wider socioeconomic issues and was no effective allowing the Conservatives to dominate the Brexit narrative
65
2019 election : What key messages did Corbyn and Labour push and get wrong?
- The Labour manifesto was not Brexit centric and instead promised a second refurendum on the 89th page
- Sort of a second act to their 2017 election
- Some of their more long term plans in the manifesto lacked details such as abolishing universal credit which mean they could be attacked on all sides
66
2019 election : How had Brexit and the election of Trump in the USA impacted the Conservatives and wider British politics?
- Rise in populism sentiment with the rise of trump and a spreading belief that the right wing could sort it all out
- Johnson's 'Get Brexit done' rhymed with Trumps 'Keep America great' and Johnson's and Trump seemingly had similar personalities cuasing voters towards Johsnon because of the success of Trump
67
2019 election : How popular were Corbyn’s policies to the wider public?
- On the whole members of the public doubted the credibility of Corbyns incredibly ambitious manifesto and the push against big bussiness and the wealthy didn’t go down well with rich voters
- Appealed to younger voters due to Corbyns plans to scrap tuition fees and lower the voting age to 16
- However, the Conservatvies won across all social classes, prehas because the public had lost faith in Corbyns promises and thought Johnsosn would be a more reliable PM
68
2019 election : How did Nicola Sturgeon of the SNP and Jo Swinson do in this election?
- Nicola Sturgeon the head of the SNP gained seas across Soctland with a clear message of a seocnd refuredum
- The party won 48 seats and a 8.1% higher vote share than last election
- Jo Swinson the head of the liberla democrats stepped down after she was defeated by the SNP by 149 votes
- The party ended up with only 11 sears one fewer than the 2017 election
69
2024 election : For what reasons was Rishi Sunak seen as out of touch?
- Sunak was unbelievably wealthy, a millionaire on his own, but richer with his wife, he was seen as out of touch in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis.
- Famously, 'I didn't have Sky TV'
70
2024 election : Why was Keir Starmer seen as a safe pair of hands?
- No-drama Starmer" had lots of experience as a lawyer
- Seen as more trusted on national security than the Conservatives
- He stressed he would not make a promise if he couldn't keep it
71
2024 election : Why did the Conservative Party struggle to maintain a united front during the election campaign?
- Almost all MPs (including the cabinet) were not told the election would be called until it was actually happening
- The national service policy annoyed many MPs and members
- Clashes between CCHQ and No. 10 aides
- The campaign was essentially being run by SPADs
72
2024 election : How had Labour positioned themselves in the run up to the election?
- Labour's campaign was much more controlled and focused on marginal seat
- "Decline with the Tories or change with Labour" etc.
- Stress on economic stability and the infamous £22bn black hole
73
2024 election : What issues did the Conservatives emphasise in the election campaign and why were they not trusted?
- Bring back right to buy, Rwanda, ending , scrap "low-quality degrees" were all policies seen as strange, if not rubbish
- A lot of their manifesto was seen as hypocritical thanks to some of the scandals during and prior to the election
74
2024 election : How did Labour deal with questions on the economy?
- "Wealth creation" was one of the driving factors in the Labour manifesto; improving standards of living and reducing inflation.
- They also planned to raise £8bn of tax by clamping down on tax avoidance and increasing windfall taxes on polluting firms, etc.
75
2024 election : What key messages did Sunak and the Conservatives push and get wrong?
- Video adverts and TikTok shorts replaced traditional Conservative posters
- "Stick to the plan" didn't particularly go well, as there had been no Conservative PM long enough to really have a plan
- Typical Conservative voters are over 50 and typical TikTok users are not meaning that digital adverts had no effect on the older generation, and they had to rely on a weak ground campaign to reach them
- Economic and immigration failures meant the Conservatives could not campaign on them
76
2024 election : What key messages did Labour push effectively?
- Campaigning for change
- NHS, housebuilding, living standards put in the spotlight
- £1.5mn spent on ads compared to the Conservatives £115k
77
2024 election : Why did the socio-economic context of 2024 not work in the Conservatives’ favour?
Blamed for the recession in 2023 and the constant increasing in the cost of living leading to crisis for many familys
78
2024 election : Did Labour successfully tap into the zeitgeist of the time?
- People actually wanted change
- Similar to '97 election ; people wanted to get rid of the Conservatives
- People were anti tory rather than pro Labour
79
2024 election : Why did third parties play a more significant role in this election compared to previous ones?
- Liberal Democrats gained 64 seats in Parliament and actually came within striking distance (49 seats) of the Conservatives and was perhaps an indication that the 2 main parties are losing voters
- The SNP lost 39 seats, almost all of which to Labour, thanks to underperformance of the Holyrood SNP government.
- The Greens were up to 6.7% of the vote (almost half of which were 2019 Labour voters), and quadrupled their seats.
- Reform won 5 seats but 14% of the vote so was negatively affected by the FPTP system
80
What is a manifesto?
List of polices a party sets out to try to appeal to voters and persuade them to vote for it
81
How have manifestos changed since 1945?
- Since 1945 they have became more detailed and specific with broad beliefs of the party as well as particular intentions Eg. 2019 Labour manifesto included : 4.3% year increase in the health budget and abolish the charitable status of private schools
- Parties can make very specific commitments in their manifestos Eg. Conservative party pledge to increase the number of nurses by 50,000 while the liberal democrat's to recruit 20,000 more teachers
- The development of precise manifesto pledges is intended to give the electorate a clear set of issues and polices that the government will be committed to pursuing
82
What is the a mandate?
- The consent allowing another to do what they feel is nessiciary for their welfare
- In politics a mandate represents the consent of the people allowing a political party to do what is nessicary in the national intrest if it succeeds in being elected to government
83
What is the signifignace of the mandate doctrine?
- Electors can feel more confident that they understand which polices they are consenting to when they cast their vote
- Mandate strengthens government in the winning party gains legitimacy for its polices
- The mandate means that Parliament can call government to account on the basis of the governing's party manifesto
- Gives electors the opportunity to judge the performance of government when election time comes around
- All the MPs from the winning party who are elected are 'bound in' by the mandate
84
Why might the mandate have some issues?
- Depends on a single party winning an election outright
Voters who voted for one party do don’t nessicarliy believe in all of its manifesto polices
- Circumstances may change after a party takes power
- Some manifesto commitments may be rather vague and open
85
Why is leadership important within an election?
In a general lection voters are not only voting for the ruling party but also the future PM meaning the reputation and qualities of them is crucial Eg. Decisive, trustworthy, united government and image
86
What is an example of leaderhsip being a big factor within an election?
David Cameron was seen as much more positive than is opposite Labour component Ed Millburn
87
What are some qualities that the public normally cite as important for leadership?
- Record in office
- Compassion
- Disserves
- Honesty and sincerity
- Strong leaderhsip
- Clear vision
- Communication skills
88
How can leadership not be seen as a signifigant factor?
Not nessicarliy the defining factor Eg. In 1979 Callaghan was 20% ahead in the popularity polls but lost the election and in 2015 Nick Clegg was the most popular of the party leaders but his parties vote share dropped by 1% and lost 5 seats
89
How has leadership been a more desisive factor recently?
But more recently, it seems to be a big infulence Eg. Boris Johnson's was the most liked party leader and won the election and Jermery Corbyn suffered the worst satifaction ratings and the Labour party went on to suffer its worst defeat since 1983
90
Why does tatical voting take place?
Is undertaken is specific consituences and circumstances to turn a 'wasted vote' for a smaller / less popular party Eg. Greens and instead vote for an alternate party which does have a chance of winning
91
What is an example of tatical voting?
- Labour supports voting Conservative to keep out UKIP
- Green party supports supporting Labour to keep out Conservative candidates
- Labour supporters voting Conservative to keep out SNP candidate
- Plaid Cymru supporters in Wales voting for Liberal democrats to keep out conservative candidates
92
What did John Curtice estimate about tactical voting in 2015?
John Curtice an election expect estimated that 77 consituences would have been infulence by tatical voting in 2015
93
What is a key tacitical voting system used by the left?
Activists from left leaning parties often use the idea of keeping the conservatives out to get people to vote tactically
94
What is an example against the signifigance of tactical voting?
Evidence from Soctland in 2015 shows that tatical voting had not effect with the SNP still winning signifigantly
95
Arguments for the signifignace of newspapers influence
- Can influence peoples trust in the leader Eg. James Callaghan in 1979 painted to be out of toutch 'crisis what crisis'
- 70% of Daily Mail voted tory in 2019 according to Ugoy
- Unlike TV and radio there is no press restrictions in terms of political bias and UK newspapers are highly politicized, being influenced by the beliefs of their ownership and readership too
96
Arguments against the signifignace of newspapers influence
- Print media is no longer as widely read so no longer as infulential
- 41% of Sun readers didn’t vote Tory in 2019 despite them being a Conservative paper
- Daily express had more labour voter than Tory in 2019 despite regularly being the most right wing
- In the 70s the press would just react the polls and as well in the 2024 election, and often backing may be to late to make a signifignat differnce (don’t want to back the losers)
- The press merely reflects the mood at the time instead of influencing it
- Newspapers tend to reflect the typical political views of their reader rather than leading them
- When giving evidence to the Leveson inquiry into press behaviour in 2012 the Suns owner ,Rupert Murdoch, admitted that newspaers do not swing votes and merly reflect readers opinions
- In 2017 Jermery Corbyn's Labout party recived 40% or the national vote despite having only the mirror to support it
97
Which party do the majoirty of newspapers support?
Today more of the newspapers support the Conservative party than the labour party and two of the biggest (Sun and the Daily Mail)
98
Arguments for the signifigance of TV influence
- How a leader comes off on TV makes a big difference Eg. Kinnocks 'we alright' at the Sheffield rally seen as being premature, 2015 Milibands falling of stage, Cleggs strong performance in first tv debate 'clegg mania' and in 2019 Johnsons' publicity stunts
- The BBC has been accused of being more liberal of left wing bias but nothing have been proved or unstained
- Television and radio remains the mains sources of information for voters
99
Arguments against the signifigance of TV influence
- After the 2010 leader events the liberal democrat's only gained 1% in vote share and lost seats from 2005
- 2024 opinion poll shows no clear winner after Starmer and Sunack debate
- Voters seem to make a rational choice with a focus on economic factors Eg. 1992 and 2015
- In 2017 a large vote share for Labour despite Corbyn forgetting statistics on TV for policing and other things
- All broadcaster by bound by law to remain neutral and to offer balanced reporting of the election and refurendums campaigns meaning they have no deliberate infulence over voting behaviour
- Televised debates are becoming more frequent and are held to the standerds of the Electrol Commision
- This is a good way to get a parties political message across but does or nessicarliy gain any advantage from this
100
Arguments for the signifigance of social media infulence
- Parties are spending much of their budget on social meida
- UKIP reached out to elderly voters on Facebook and received 3.8 million votes
- Farrage had very popular tiktoks
- Labour started on social media before election was called to get out of election spedning restrictions
- Labour used viral videos to get round the gap in funding and connect with the young
- 'daddy why do you hate me' in 2017 election to vote against tory because of tuition fees
- Social media may be limited to the impact of Corbyn's poor press image in 2017
- In 2019 the Tories focused on marginal consituences and also to win over younger male audience
- In 2023 that 10% of people aged 16+ recived their news from tiktok
- Social media as it is unregulated means there is more opportunites for political traction
- Much more useful from smaller parties like UKIP and the Greens
- There is less scrutiny and accountability
101
Arguments against the signifigance of social media infulence
- Cameron publically criticised twitter in 2010 as it was hardly used
- Could be seen as too early to tell with tiktok not being prevelent in 2019 alluding to the idea that its going in that direction but not there yet
- Social media is an echo chamber with the for you page
- Demographic divides actually drive social meida use is more important
- It is more difficult for a singular political party to gain any speical advantage but things like online ads and twitter bots can shift this
102
What do companies like Cambridge Analytica do?
- The publication of the report into Russian interfrence during the EU refurendum and subsequent general elections in the UK does seem to indicate that social meida provides a platform that groups with vested intrests can use to infulence the political debate in the UK
- Companies like Cambridge Analytica use peoples personal data to target and influences voters into going a certain way on behalf of their clients
103
Public opinion poll
- Poll carried out by research organisations using a sample of typical voters
- They are mainly used to establish voting intentions, but can also be used to gauge leaders' popularity and the importance of
specific issues in voters' minds
104
How long have opinion polls been a feature of British political life?
- Since the 1940s, when the first poll was carried out by the Gallup organisation
- Gallup (an American company that had started polling in the USA before the Second World War) predicted that Labour won win the 1945 general election, much to the surprise of most commentators of the day
- Gallup was right and from them on polls became increasingly used to gauge political opinion
- Since their early days, however, opinion polls have become both more influential and increasingly controversial
105
Arguments in favour of banning opinion polls
- 2015 election polling incident predicted a Labour win and on that basis the Conservatives changed their manifesto and the potential SNP coalition
- Discussion and coverage of actual policies, ideas and manifesto commitments was may often crowded out
- Indirectly influences voters decisions as well as turnout
- Potential failures of sampaling methodogly leading to inacurate data
106
Arguments against banning opinion polls
- The Representation of the People Act 1983 prohibits the publication of the results of polls conducted on election day whilst voting is taking place but other than that, there are no further statutory restrictions
- ‘official’ polls during elections will result in a ‘black market’
- Polling methodology has improved hugely since the bad experience of 2015
- Attempt to restrict its activities could have unintended consequences Eg. Black market
107
Which counties have banned opinion polls?
Countries such as ...
- Canada
- Nepal
- Poland
- Norway
