How many seats did the Conservatives receive in the 1979 general election, and how many did they gain/lose? And, what % of the vote did they receive?
Seats: 339
Gain: +62
% of popular vote: 43.9%
How many seats did the Labour party receive in the 1979 general election, and how many did they gain/lose? And, what % of the vote did they receive?
Seats: 269
Loss: -50
% of popular vote: 36.9%
How many seats did the Liberal party receive in the 1979 general election, and how many did they gain/lose? And, what % of the vote did they receive?
Seats: 11
Loss: -2
% of popular vote: 14%
How long were the Tories in power for after the 1979 election?
18 years.
What was the 1979 election called after?
It was called after James Callaghan’s minority Labour government lost a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons
What happened to Labour during the 18 years of Conservative government?
They descended into a prolonged period of left/right infighting over policy until the reinvention of the party under Tony Blair.
What priority did both Tory and Labour manifestos in 1979 have?
To bring down inflation.
Where was Callaghan on the political spectrum with the Labour party?
He came from the centre right of left-wing politics. He resisted the left wing of the party. This was reflected by his manifesto.
What did Thatcher’s manifesto (1979) contain?
- It contained little indication that she wanted to move the Party slightly further to the right
- Some mention of privatisation of industry
- No real mention of the crusade against the state sector that would take place
- This mitigated Callaghan’s warning of a mass lurch to the right if the Tories won.
How did the Tories operate in the 1979 campaign? (3)
1 - They embraced modern advertising under the guidance of professional publicity specialists Gordon Reece and Tim Bell
2 - They embraced the use of billboards and photo opportunities - Thatcher was pictured doing everything from the tea tasting to holding a new-born calf
3 - Thatcher turned down the opportunity to undertake a live debate, which did not hinder her electoral appeal as no potential PM had ever done one before
What was the issue with Labour’s campaign in 1979?
- It lacked finesse, and missed the finer points of presentation
- Callaghan did not engage with the media on a wide scale
What was the real impact of the 1979 campaign?
- It is hard to measure
- The Tories were leading in the polls throughout
- However, when voters were asked in 1979 who would make a better PM - Callaghan came ahead of Thatcher by 20 points on average
- It is clear that Thatcher embraced a more modern technique of publicity to great effect, however it was not the only reason for her election win
Callaghan’s minority Labour government survived on constructing…
deals with smaller political parties.
Why was there a mistiming of the general election in 1979?
1978-79 saw the winter of discontent hit Britain, the governments policy to impose a limit of 5% on pay increases led to riots and strikes. Lorry drivers, health workers, and even one local authority - grave diggers - created a sense of national paralysis.
What happened to Callaghan, in relation to the media?
- Series of disastrous interviews with the media
- Asked constantly about the state of the country after the winter of discontent
- Dismissing questions - particularly in the interview with the Sun newspaper in 1979
- He alienated the public prompting the newspaper to run the headline ‘Crisis, what crisis?
What was the Tories’ new slogan for billboards?
‘Labour isn’t working’
What happened in relation to devolution, before the 1979 election?
Scottish and Welsh nationalists called for referendums on devolution. They took place and Scotland and they voted ‘Yes’. However, it was abandoned by the government. This was also a factor in bringing down the Callaghan government.
How many seats did Labour receive in the 1997 general election, and how many did they gain/lose? And, what % of the vote did they receive?
Seats: 418
Gain: +145
% of popular vote: 43.2%
How many seats did the Conservatives receive in the 1997 general election, and how many did they gain/lose? And, what % of the vote did they receive?
Seats: 165
Loss: -178
% of popular vote: 30.7%
How many seats did the Liberal Democrats receive in the 1997 general election, and how many did they gain/lose? And, what % of the vote did they receive?
Seats: 46
Loss: -28
% of popular vote: 16.8%
Who was elected leader of Labour in 1983, after Michael Foote?
Neil Kinnock. He lost to Thatcher and then Major.
Who replaced Kinnock?
John Smith.
When was Blair elected as leader, following the death of John Smith?
1994.
What were the main features of the 1997 Labour Manifesto, that differed from previous ones?
- Labour rebranded itself as ‘New Labour’
- Blair sought to move the party away from old-fashioned left leaning party policies that included: nationalisation, tax increases, strengthening of trade union power
Why did the middle-class vote for Labour increase, in 1997?
- They moved away from left-leaning policies in the manifesto
- This meant that the middle class were now looking on with interest to see what Labour had to say
What was new Labour’s policy on crime?
- Blair had a no-nonsense approach to tackling the increasing crime
- This appealed to many voters
What links did new Labour have with businesses?
Blair kindled relationships with the business world, more than Labour had done previously.
What was new Labour’s relationship with the press?
- Crucially, and indeed in stark contrast to 1979, new Labour won the endorsement of the greater part of the national press
- Including the Sun and The Times
What was new Labour’s main goal in regards to schools?
- They wanted to reduce class sizes to 30
What was new Labour’s message?
That it was a moderate party with the interests of ‘middle England’ at heart.
What was new Labour’s main goal in regards to the NHS?
They wanted to cut hospital waiting lists.
What was the main new Labour policy that helped gain votes from Liberal Democrat supporters, in 1997?
Constitutional reform. This made it easier for Lib Dems to vote tactically for Labour in marginal seats, which their own candidates could not hope to win. This may have added up to 30 seats to the Labour majority.
What were the main features of new Labour’s vote-winning machine?
- Public relations experts to handle the media
- Focus groups to assess public opinion
- Targeted marginal seats
- Central control - more power to the central core of the Labour Party with Blair and Brown asserting huge control over various MPs in the campaign through their spin doctors (Campbell and Mandelson)
How was new Labour’s voting machine successful?
- Labour’s vote share increased an average by 12.5% in its targeted seats
- But by 13.5% in constituencies it neglected
- Despite the central control of the campaign by Labour headquarters, the party’s lead in the opinion polls actually declined in the course of the campaign
Why may the 1997 election not have represented a mass popular movement in support of Labour?
- Turnout in 1997 was 71.4%, which meant that under 31% of the registered electorate actually voted Labour
Why may the 1997 election have been a Conservative failure rather than a Labour success?
- The Tories had their worst election result since 1832, winning only 30.7% of the vote
- The statistical evidence points to the failure of the Major government as being the defining reason as to why Labour regained power in 1997
Why may the economic policy under Major have affected the 1997 outcome?
- By 1997 the economy was recovering from recession inflicted in the earlier part of the decade
- But the voters didn’t give the Tories credit for this
- They remembered ‘black Wednesday’ in September 1992
- Labour were ahead in the polls from Autumn 1992 onwards
What was ‘black Wednesday’?
The government were forced to withdraw the pound sterling from the Exchange Rate Mechanism after an attempt to keep it above the lower currency exchange limit mandated by the ERM.
What were other important reasons for the Conservatives decline in the 1990s?
- Major’s tenure was undermined by a series of financial and sexual scandals
- There were also huge internal divisions over the question of Europe
- Boredom - the feeling for a change
How many seats did the Conservatives receive in the 2010 general election, and how many did they gain/lose? And, what % of the vote did they receive?
Seats: 306
Gain/loss: +96
% of popular vote: 36.1%
How many seats did the Liberal Democrats receive in the 2010 general election, and how many did they gain/lose? And, what % of the vote did they receive?
Seats: 57
Gain/loss: -5
% of popular vote: 23%
How many seats did the Labour Party receive in the 2010 general election, and how many did they gain/lose? And, what % of the vote did they receive?
Seats: 258
Gain/loss: -90
% of popular vote: 29%
What was one of the key issues during the 2010 election?
Reducing the budget deficit. It had increased to 163 billion since the financial crisis of 2007-2008. All 3 parties pledged to reduce the deficit without sacrificing essential public services.
Who were the only party who called for immediate cuts, in 2010?
The Conservatives. The other parties stated that this would jeopardise the economy recovery.
What did the Conservatives accuse Labour of, from 2008 onwards, in relation to the economy.
Their mismanagement of the economy, accusing them of recklessly overspending, and failing to regulate the banking system effectively.
What did one opinion poll suggest about peoples views on Labour’s spending?
59% of voters agreed most of the extra money spent by the Labour government had been wasted.
How did the Conservatives campaign, up to the 2010 election?
- From 2005 onwards targeted marginal seats
- Established links at local level testing their policies with voters and emphasising the support of public services
- However, despite efforts conservatives still short by 20 seats in terms of a majority
- Billboard campaign of 2010 election really attacked the latter new Labour government led by Gordon Brown
What was the main incident that overshadowed Gordon Brown’s campaign.
When Brown described a Labour voter as a ‘Bigoted women’ during the campaign, which was heard by nation as he still had the microphone attached to his lapel.
What was a huge change during the 2010 election campaign, compared to 1997, and 1979?
Televised debates. Brown was generally felt to have come across as wooden and unrelatable. His tendency to reply with ‘I agree with Nick’ was ridiculed at the time
Who got a boost in the opinion polls from this TV debate?
Nick Clegg - it was dubbed Cleggmania. But this fell back on polling day.
What was the mistake made by Brown similarly to Callaghan in the 2010 election?
The choice of election date. When he succeeded Blair in 2007, he raised speculation that he would call an election in the Autumn. When he doesn’t - he gets branded ‘Bottle Brown’.
How did Brown grapple with the financial crisis?
He placed emergency measures on the banking system - bailing out the banks and partly nationalising those on the brink of failure, he received little political credit for this.
How was Brown presented by the media?
As a dictatorial PM who wielded huge power over his cabinet.
What did an Ipsos MORI poll shortly before the 2010 election show?
That 29% of the population viewed Brown as a capable PM. Cameron got 33% as the most capable potential PM
What did the polls show in 2010? What was one of the things it came down to?
- That the Tories were ahead in the election over certain issues, but despite Cameron’s best efforts to modernise the Tory Party, the lead came down to traditional territory such as immigration and law and order.
Which was suggested by the polls to have had the best policy, in 2010?
29% of voter felt that the Tories had the best policy, compared to 26% for Labour. A further 36% did not choose any of the Parties - which probably explains why the Conservatives didn’t get a majority.
Which parties do classes traditionally vote for?
- The middle/upper class: Conservative
- The working class: Labour
Why is there a correlation between voting and class?
Those who have property and financial investments at stake are more likely to vote than those who don’t. In 2010 76% of the two highest social classes voted, compared with 57% from the two lowest classes.
Who are partisan voters?
Those who are very loyal to a particular political party, and are reluctant to compromise with political opponents.
What is partisan dealignment?
Where are large portion of the electorate abandons its previous partisan affiliation, without replacing it with a new one. There has been a recent decline in attachment felt by voters to the two major parties
What made people traditionally vote for the two major parties?
- Family tradition
- Workplace and community
Why has the nature of industry changed?
- The idea that a young person would be in the same job for the whole of their life diminished leading into the 1980s and 90s
- Improvement of education also reinforced this process
Have the amount of swing voters increased?
Yes - people do not identify strongly with a set political party and they are open to persuasion at each general election.
Why is there a growing disillusionment and apathy to politics?
The electorate has lost confidence in their political representatives over the various decades
In the 1979 election what percentage of the electorate voted Conservative and Labour combined?
81%
In the 1997 election what percentage voted for Tory and Labour?
74%
In the 2010 election what percentage voted Tory and Labour?
65%
In the 2019 election what percentage voted Tory and Labour?
76%
What is transactional voting, also known as rational choice theory?
The idea that voters are consumers, that vote according to what that party can provide for them to better their individual lives. They look at policies and choose the party most aligned with their preferences - linked to a growing intelligent electorate that has more access to information through the internet.
What are the problems with the rational choice theory?
- This analysis is formulaic
- It assumes that voters always understood Party policy, and this is not always the case
- It doesn’t explain why voters feel differently about different issues
Apart from party policies, voters may have questions such as:
- Who is the best potential PM among the Party leaders
- Who is expected to manage the economy most successfully
- Who will provide the best quality of public services
When did many skilled workers vote Conservative for the first time, and why?
In 1979, in response to Thatcher’s populist style and campaign. They had become disenchanted from Labour’s previous 70s governments. The kept faith in the Tories for the next three elections: 83, 87 and 92
When was there a swing for skilled workers?
In 1997, when they voted new Labour - they also voted labour in 2001 and 2005, yet 2010 saw their vote split before consolidating under the Tory government once more in 2019 due to the Corbyn led Labour party.
In terms of government competency, what is taken into account by the electorate?
- Management of the economy
- Strong leadership
- Track records in terms of success of policy
- In terms of oppositions parties, voters are deciding on its potential government competence if it were to achieve office
What is the economic voting model?
A variant of rational choice theory - this throws the most weight behind economic management in terms of accessing government success - or indeed they may support a party if they show a vision of future economic prosperity for themselves, families or for the nation - inflation, unemployment, interest rates and taxation come into consideration.
What is the recent public image of leaders?
- Presidentialisation of British politicians since 1979
- Idea that voting campaigns are dictated by how the PM or future PM looks
- Corbyn never quite fitted the sleek image of Blair
- Indeed, many think the future of Labour will Sir Keir Starmer - arguably cleaner cut than Blair himself
Why is personality a big factor, for PMs?
- The electorate actually want to see the human nature of their politicians
- Boris Johnson has been particularly successful at this - even if some political commentators perceive his image as exaggerated
Which party have women historically voted for, and why?
The Conservatives. This could be to do with their need for a stable society, based on traditional family values - 40s, 50s and 60s. This could also be down to the rise of Thatcher in the 1980s and their trust in a female leader.
When did more women start to vote Labour, in elections, and why?
During the Blair years, with younger women more likely to vote Labour in comparison to young men. This could be down to the movement of more women into the working world in comparison to previous decades. Women could also have been responding to Blair’s pro family, education policies that gave the provision of more free nursery places.
What percentage of women aged 18-24 voted Conservative in 2010?
30%
What percentage of women over the age of 55 voted Conservative in 2010?
42%
Older people in general are more likely to vote… (and why?)
Conservative because they have more material interests. Their age means that they do not necessarily want change in governance.
What events will older generations remember that younger generations wouldn’t, that would impact who they vote for?
- The failure of Labour in the 1970s, when the trade unions exerted huge control
- This went against Corbyn in 2017 and 2019 as he was a reminder of those days of discontent
What percentage of over 65s voted Conservative in 2010?
44%
What percentage of 18-24 year olds voted Conservative in 2010?
30%
Why did Cameron hold fast against calls from the Liberal Democrats to cut pensioner benefits?
Because a large portion of the Conservatives support came from the over 65s.
How does age affect voter turnout?
Older people are more likely to vote than younger people.
What percentage of over 65s voted in 2010, and what percentage of 18-24 years old voted in 2010?
76% of over 65s, 44% of 18-24 year olds.
Why do some ethnic groups traditionally vote Labour?
Due to their anti-discrimination agenda. There is also a link with class here as many of these communities are in the lower wage bracket.
What is once exception to ethnic groups voting Labour, and why?
Asian communities often vote Conservative in comparison to those from African descent. This is because many in Asian communities are often small business owners who are protected by Conservative policy.
Which party do Jewish communities traditionally vote for?
The Labour Party. However, under Corbyn from 2015-2020, there have been troubles with Anti-Semitism.
How does region link to class?
- Those on lower income in the North of England tend to vote Labour (the red wall)
- Those in the South and West of England traditionally vote Conservative
- London is very much split between a myriad of swing constituencies
What is AB?
Higher and intermediate managerial, administrative and professional occupations.
What is C1?
Supervisory, clerical and junior managerial, administrative and professional occupations.
What is C2?
Skilled manual occupations.
What is DE?
Semi-skilled and unskilled manual occupations, unemployed and lowest grade occupations.
Which party have AB and C1 mostly voted for overall, since 1979?
The Conservatives. They are Middle-class.
Which party have C2 mostly voted for since 1979?
In 1979, they both voted roughly the same for Tory and Labour. In 1997, they overwhelmingly voted Labour. In 2010, they mostly voted Conservative. They are the skilled working class.
Which party have DE mostly voted for since 1979?
Labour. They are the Semi/unskilled working class.
How, up to about 1970, were voters in Britain strongly influenced by their social class background?
- Generally speaking, working class people voted for the Labour Party - closely linked to the trade union movement and those who worked in traditional heavy industries - coal, steel, textiles and shipbuilding
- The middle classes voted Conservative
Define class dealignment.
Process where individuals no longer identify themselves as belonging to a certain class and don’t vote for the party they may be expected to, given their background.
Why was there never a completely clear-cut social divide between the two parties?
- Labour commanded the support of a section of the middle class - especially those who worked in the state sector - teachers and social workers + university intellectuals
- The Conservatives appealed to deferential and patriotic working class voters who valued established institutions such as the monarchy
Why is the link between class and voting no longer as pronounced as it was in the years after the Second World War?
- Society has become more affluent and working-class people have aspired to a middle-class way of life
- Already apparent by the 1979 election - gathered pace in the 1980s, promoted by the sale of council house to their tenants under the Thatcher government
- Privatisation reduced the size of the public sector, traditionally a source of support for Labour
How did new Labour broaden its appeal to voters?
- Appealed to the middle-class, as well as its traditional working-class base - symbolised by the dropping of its historic commitment to public ownership (nationalisation) - Clause IV removed in 1995 by Blair
- More centrist so appeals to voters from both sides of the spectrum
How is there a link between class and patterns of turnout in general elections?
- Members of the electorate who have more at stake financially - through ownership of property, savings and investment - are more inclined to vote than the poor, who may believe that the political system delivers little from them.
What was the turnout from different classes in 2010?
76% of the two highest social classes voted, compared with 57% of the two lowest classes - another indicator of this is the gap between home owners (74%) and those living in social hosing or in the private rented sector (55%)
Define partisan dealignment.
The process where individuals no longer identify themselves on a long-term basis as being associated with a certain political party.
Why have more people become floating voters who don’t identify with a particular party?
- Partly a result of a growing sense of disillusion (disappointment) and apathy (lack of interest)
- Loss of confidence in the capacity of politics and politicians to solve problems and make a difference
How has partisan dealignment evidently increased?
1979 - 81% voted for two main parties
1997 - 74% voted for two main parties
2010 - 65% voted for two main parties
What is the economic voting model?
- Voters are more likely to support a governing party if it has manager the economy successful
- They may give their support to a party that is thought likely to deliver economic prosperity, either to voters themselves and their families, or the population
- May be influenced by factors such as inflation, unemployment, interest rates and taxation
Why has the public image of party leaders become more important in recent decades?
As politics has become increasingly personalised - commentators have talked about the ‘presidentialisation’ of British politics since the 1979 election - campaigns increasingly shaped by voters’ perceptions of the leading figures.
How do parties appreciate the importance of presenting their leaders in a good light?
- Attention is given to ‘photo opportunities’ that will show the leader’s human touch
- Leaders’ appearances have become increasingly state-managed, to avoid possible awkward encounters with members of the public who may react in a negative manner
