5.1.1 Presidential elections and their significance Flashcards
(54 cards)
1
Q
3
Describe the constiutional requirements to be President
A
- 35 years old
- Natural born US citizen
- Resident in US for 14 years
2
Q
3
Describe the constitutional requirements of the Presidential election
A
- Fixed terms
- Indirect election - states vote where their ECVs should go
- Constitution left Congress and states to decide how elections work in practice
3
Q
2
Describe the fixed terms of Presidents
A
- 2 x 4 year terms
- Up to 2 years at end of term (if have been VP) + 2 x 4 years terms - 10 years total
4
Q
6
Outline the presidential election cycle
A
- Invisible Primary
- Party primaries and caucuses
- National Party Convention
- Election Day
- Electoral College ballots cast
- Inauguration
5
Q
5
Describe the invisible primary
A
- Period prior to formal start of intraparty primary elections
- Potential candidates compete to attract attention, funding and endorsements for their campaign
- Aim to gain name recognition to become viable candidate
- Candidacy announcement attracts serious media attention e.g. Trump - 2015
- Televised debates
6
Q
2
Give a stat/examples that describes the withdrawn candidacies in the invisible candidacy
A
- Democrat Primary 2020 - 18/29 candidates dropped out prior to formal start of primary
- Republican Primary 2024 - Mike Pence
7
Q
3
Describe donations in the invisible primary system
A
- Attracting funding essential for candidate to survive long and expensive campaign
- ‘free’ media attention - estimates suggest Trump benefitted $2bn worth in 2016 due to controversial comments
- May partially self-finance e.g. Michael Bloomburg (outspent Biden campaign, though made little ground)
8
Q
2
How does the primary and caucus system work?
A
- Organised by individual parties within each state
- Public effectively vote to determine who their state delegates will vote for at National Party Convention
9
Q
3
Describe primaries
A
- Intraparty ballot to nominate party candidate
- Secret ballot
- Conducted on state-wide basis
10
Q
4
Describe caucuses
A
- Intraparty town hall to nominate party candidate
- Often public voting
- Conducted in small local areas
- Less commonly used
11
Q
3
List the 3 types of primary/caucus
A
- Open
- Closed
- Semi-closed
12
Q
3
Describe open primaries/caucuses
A
- All voters in state can participate, regardless of whether they are a registered party member
- Voters can only participate in one primary
- e.g. Democrat voter/party member can choose to vote in Republican primary e.g. Nikki Haley 2024
13
Q
1
Describe closed primaries/caucuses
A
- Only registered party members can participate
14
Q
2
Describe semi-closed primaries/caucuses
A
- Regsitered party members only permitted to participate in their own party primary/caucus
- Unregistered voter can choose which party’s to participate in
15
Q
3
Describe the different ways in which delegates are allocated
A
- Proportional - all Dem primaries/caucuses, some Republican
- Winner-takes-all - some Republican
- Proportional unless threshold reach - threshold often set at 50%, applies in some Republican
16
Q
3
Describe frontloading
A
- movement of primaries to earlier point in calendar to give more significance to primary or caucus within state
- thereby gives more influence to state party members/voters
- NH and Iowa traditionally first
17
Q
1
How many super tuesday contests were there in 2024 primaries?
A
15 states (+ one territory)
18
Q
2 - (2) (3)
Describe the formal roles of party conventions
A
-
Select presidential candidate
- simple majority needed
- delegates bound by party rules on who they have to vote fo
-
Adopt party platform (manifesto)
- ‘policy committee’ agree platform in cojunction with presumptive nominee prior to convention
- theoretically allows amendments
- mostly serves to rubber stamp
19
Q
2 - (2) (2)
Describe the informal roles of party conventions
A
-
Selling the candidate
- multi-day event with extensive TV coverage
- can allow rising stars to speak e.g. Obama 2004
-
Party unity
- invisible primary reveals flaws of candidates and thereby exposes internal party divisions
- runner-up may speak to promote presumptive nominee e.g. Clinton 2008
20
Q
3
Describe Joe Biden’s 2020 primary campaign
A
- Iowa - 4th
- New Hampshire - 5th
- Super Tuesday - topped 10/14 states
21
Q
1
Describe the declining importance of National Party Conventions
A
- greater emphasis placed on primaries/caucuses reduced convention to symbolic one
22
Q
1
Give examples of the symbolic stature of National Party Conventions
A
- 2016 RNC - took convention jut 6 minutes to agree party platform despite concerns from LGBT members via a voice vote
23
Q
3
What occurs in between the NPC and Election Day?
A
- Extensive fundraising
- Campaign events
- Televised presidential debates
24
Q
3
Describe ‘Bellwether’ states
A
- Those who have historically tended to vote for successful candidate
- 2020 - 96% of campaigning by Trump/Biden took place in 12 states
- Swing states - specific to election
25
# 1
What happened in the 2016 Clinton v Trump debates
* snap polls showed Clinton won every debate - but lsot election
26
# 2
How are 'electors' selected
* Selected by parties - decide who are electors in each state
* Often faithful party activists - used as reward for patronage purposes
27
# 3
How many ECVs does each state have?
* Number of congressional districts + number of senators
* DC gets 3 ECVs
* Guarantees minimum 3 ECVs per state - leads to disproportion
28
# 3
Describe 'faithless electors'
* Electors who do not vote as their state did
* 33 states have states preventing faithless electors
* 10 faithless electors in 2016 (3 had votes invalidated due to state laws)
29
# 2
Describe the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC)
* member states pledge all ECVs to winner of national popular vote, regardless of own state outcome
* members: 17 states + DC
30
# 3
Describe limits to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC)
* 2020 - Joe Biden won anyways in all participant states (+DC)
* Would only come into force when it would guarantee that popular vote candidate wins
* would raise legal constitutional issues if enacted
31
# 2
How do Nebraska and Maine vote?
* Allocate 2 ECVs to state popular vote winner
* 1 ECV to winner in each congressional district
32
# 3
Describe the arguments that the electoral college should be changed
* Representation
* Democracy
* Participation
33
# 4
Describe the argument that the electoral college should be changed - **representation**
* Smaller states over represneted as each state/district guaranteed 3 ECVs
* bellwether states recieve excessive focus
* Less focus on majority of states where result is more predictable effectively ignored - Obama 2012
* Large metropolitan cities can dominate state votes - New York
34
# 1
Give an example of a state ECV disproportionality
CA ECV represents 3 times the population of a Wyoming ECV
35
# 1
Give an example that shows how unwinnable states are ignored in Presidential elections
Obama did not visit Utah, SD, Idaho in 2012
36
# 5
Describe the argument that the electoral college should not be changed - **representation**
* Ensured small states' role, culture and traditions are considered
* as US population heavily concentrated in few big states
* upholds RD and federalism
* allows different electoral procedures in different states
* 2012 - Obama won 51% popular vote + 332 ECVs, representing strong plurality
37
# 5
Describe the argument that the electoral college should be changed - **democracy**
* 2 of last 6 presidential elections have seen popular vote winner lose electoral college
* ECVs not allocated proportionally
* Effectively excludes 3rd party candidates as votes are thinly spread across nation (e.g. Ross Perot 1992 and 1996)
* Biden won CA by over 5m votes in 2020 - yet not reflected in ECV count
* faithless electors undermine democratic principles and threaten legitimacy
38
# 5
Describe the argument that the electoral college should not be changed - **democracy**
* FPTP creates two-party system that produces clear winner
* Prevents Congress selecting President/VP
* Ensured clear mandate
* No consensus on what should replace elec college: PR of ECVs vs popular vote
* Faithless electors insignificant
39
# 3
Describe the argument that the electoral college should be changed - **participation**
* States with more ECVs have higher turnouts (e.g. Hawaii has less)
* Hawaii also had faithless elector in 2016 - link between abuse of electoral college and voter apathy
* Unwilling to split ticket by voting for 3rd party candidate - 'no-labels party'
40
# 2
Give an example that shows the link between the state ECV size and turnout in the **2020** election
* Alaska (3 ECVs) - 60%
* CA (55 ECVs) - 80%
41
# 3
Describe the argument that the electoral college should not be changed - **participation**
* Will enjoy high turnouts regardless of electoral college reform
* Turnout rose by 6% in 2020 despite supposed disillusion following popular vote/elec college disparity in 2016
* Marginal states see very high turnouts
42
# 2
Give an example of a battleground state with a very high turnout
* Colorado, a secondary battleground state
* saw 73% turnout in 2020
43
# 7
Describe the factors of the signficance of the incumbency on a president seeking a 2nd term
* Name recognition - greater than competitor
* Fundraising advantages
* Lack of primary challenger - can focus on national campaign
* Policy successes in government
* Can introduce populist policies prior to election to appease voters
* Media attention for 4 years
* Vote inertia - voters often risk-averse and unlikely to vote for change
44
# 5
Describe limits to the signficance of the incumbency on a president seeking a 2nd term
* Incumbents can be judges for failures e.g. Trump - pandemic handling
* 3rd party factor - Perot 1992
* May face primary challenge e.g. Dean Phillips
* Economic/FP crisis
* Opponent may command significant name recognition - Trump 2024
45
# 5
Describe how the presidential election creates a two-party system
* Winner-takes-all
* Federal nature
* Broad ideologies
* Expense of campaigns
* Electoral rules
46
# 2
Give an example of how FPTP disadvantages 3rd parties in the 2016 election
* 3rd party vote tripled to 7m
* Yet came nowhere close to winning a state
47
# 3
How does federalism create a 2 party system?
* state runs own elections
* no state allocates ECVs by PR
* 48 states allocate ECVs on winner-takes-all basis
48
# 3
How do ideological factors create a 2 party system?
* Main 2 parties comprise broad ideologies
* Difficult for third party/independents to carve out distinctive policy area
* 'co-optation' - main parties assume policies of 3rd party
49
# 2
How does financial considerations create a 2 party system?
* Smaller parties lack funding for centrally-organised, extensive campaign
* lack membership for mobilisation
50
# 2
Candidates need to poll an average of (...) in national polls to qualify for debates
15%
Therefore institutionally discludes third parties/independent candidates
51
# 2
Describe the 2 methods of running-mate selection
* Balanced ticket - select running mate that opposes their characteristics (age, gender, ethnicity and wing of party)
* Reinforcing ticket - Al Gore 1992 - moderate, young (Arkansas Govenor and Tenessee senator)
52
# 1
Biden finished 5th in (...) in the 2020 Democrat primaries, the 2nd contest, yet went on to win the election
New Hampshire
53
# 2
Describe a candidate that ran for President to boost their public profile
* Pete Buttigieg - Mayor of South Bend, Indiana
* Now Transport Secretary
54
# 1
Give an example of co-optation
- Trump embraced Libertarian ideals (e.g. tax cuts) and sought to win party nomination in 2024
