Tectonic Processes and Hazards - 3 Management of tectonic hazards and disasters

Question 1

What has been the overall longer-term trend for natural hazards since about 1960?

Answer 1

• The total (aggregate) number of recorded hazards has increased over the last 50 years.
• The number of reported disasters seems to be falling, having peaked in the early 2000s (but that appears to be an anomaly to the longer-term trend).
• Number of deaths is also lower than in the recent past, but there are spikes with mega-events.
• The total number of people affected is increasing for some hazard and disaster types, especially meteorological and hydrological.
• The economic costs associated with both hazards and disasters of all types have increased significantly since 1960.

Question 2

What is another important aspect of disaster geography?

Answer 2

Another important aspect of disaster geography is the spatial variation of tectonic impacts. It is wrong to assume that the locations of hazard impacts always translate into simple distributions. Data from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) and the International Red Cross shows that the number of disasters reveals a complex pattern when either viewed by world region or by level of development.

Question 3

Why is reporting disaster impacts, especially deaths, controversial?

Answer 3

1 It depends on whether direct (primary) deaths or indirect (secondary) deaths from subsequent hazards or associated diseases are counted.
2 Location is significant because local or regional events in remote places are often under-recorded.
3 Declaration of disaster deaths and casualties may be subject to political bias. The 2004 Asian tsunami was almost completely ignored in Myanmar but perhaps initially overstated in parts of Thailand, where foreign tourists were killed, and then played down to protect the Thai tourist industry.
4 Statistics on major disasters are difficult to collect, particularly in remote rural areas of low human development countries (LHDs), for example the earthquake in Kashmir in 2005, or in densely populated squatter settlements, for example the Caracas landslides in 2003-2004.
5 Time-trend analysis (interpreting historical data to produce trends) is difficult. Much depends on the intervals selected and whether the means of data collection have remained constant. Trends (deaths, numbers affected, economic impacts) can be upset by a cluster of mega-disasters, as happened in the 2004 Asian tsunami or the 2011 Haiti earthquake, or even in the 2015 Kathmandu earthquake.

Question 4

Why is location important for reporting disaster impacts, especially deaths?

Answer 4

Location is significant because local or regional events in remote places are often under-recorded.

Question 5

What may the declaration of disaster deaths and casualties be subject to?

Answer 5

Political bias

Question 6

Where are statistics on major disasters difficult to collect?

Answer 6

Statistics on major disasters are difficult to collect, particularly in remote rural areas of low human development countries (LHDs), for example the earthquake in Kashmir in 2005, or in densely populated squatter settlements, for example the Caracas landslides in 2003-2004.

Question 7

Why is time-trend analysis (interpreting historical data to produce trends) difficult?

Answer 7

Much depends on the intervals selected and whether the means of data collection have remained constant.

Question 8

d

Answer 8

d

Question 9

d

Answer 9

d

Question 10

d

Answer 10

d

Question 11

What are the key characteristics of tectonic mega-disasters?

Answer 11

• They are usually large-scale disasters on either an aerial/spatial scale or in terms of their economic and/or human impact.
• Because of their scale, they pose serious problems for effective management to minimise the impact of disaster (both in the short and longer term).
• The scale of their impact may mean that communities, but usually government as well, often require international support in the immediate aftermath as well as during longer-term recovery. This may be at a regional level (for example the Asian tsunami of 2004) or globally (for example Japan 2011). These events can affect more than one country either directly or indirectly.

Question 12

Why do tectonic mega-disasters pose serious problems in terms of their scale?

Answer 12

• Because of their scale, they pose serious problems for effective management to minimise the impact of disaster (both in the short and longer term).
• The scale of their impact may mean that communities, but usually governments as well, often require international support in the immediate aftermath as well as during longer-term recovery.

Question 13

What are tectonic mega-events and disasters often classified as?

Answer 13

Tectonic mega-events and disasters are often classified as high-impact, low-probability (HILP) events.

Question 14

What has the impact of the globalisation of production and supply chains been?

Answer 14

The globalisation of production and supply chains has increased manufacturing efficiencies, but it has also reduced resilience in the case of some events. High-value manufacturing is often most at risk because of its just-in-time (JIT) business model. The consequences of HILP events spread rapidly across both economic and geographic boundaries, creating other impacts (economists might call these negative externalities) that are difficult to plan for. The Japanese earthquake in 2011, for example, led to a five per cent reduction in the country’s GDP. There were much wider knock-on impacts for global transnational corporations (TNCs) however, such as Toyota and Sony, which were forced to halt production.

Question 15

Why is high-value manufacturing often most at risk?

Answer 15

High-value manufacturing is often most at risk because of its just-in-time (JIT) business model.

Question 16

What were the impacts of the Japanese earthquake in 2011?

Answer 16

The Japanese earthquake in 2011, for example, led to a five per cent reduction in the country’s GDP. There were much wider knock-on impacts for global transnational corporations (TNCs) however, such as Toyota and Sony, which were forced to halt their production.

Question 17

What was the context of the Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland eruption?

Answer 17

In March 2010 Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted for the first time in over 190 years. By 15 April 2010 the ash plume generated from the eruption had begun to affect much of Europe, spreading as far as northern Italy. The ash cloud grounded flights in most of Europe for several days. More than 100,000 air-journeys were cancelled, leading to the worst disruptions in air travel since the 9/11 terrorist attack in 2001.
However, this was a relatively small eruption ‘in the wrong place’, with no direct deaths. It was high profile due to the impact on air movements (passenger and freight).

Question 18

What effects did the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland have on the global supply chain?

Answer 18

Imports and exports in and out of Europe were greatly affected by the air travel shutdown in 2010. Although airfreight accounts for a tiny amount of world trade by weight, it accounts for a much high proportion of trade by value. For example, airfreight accounts for approximately 0.5 per cent of UK trade by weight but a much bigger 25 per cent of trade by value.

Example 1: Car manufacturing disruption
The disruption to airfreight by the eruption highlighted how important airfreight is in supplying high-value key components to many manufacturers. The Nissan plant in Japan, for example, had to stop production of the Cube, Murano SUV and Rogue crossover models because they ran out of critical sensor produced in Ireland. Airfreight is only used for a small quantity of high-value but vital electronic components were there are few alternative suppliers.

Example 2: Impacts on the transport of perishable goods
There were impacts on the producers of flowers, fruit and vegetables in African countries such as Kenya, Zambia and Ghana, with delays in transportation meaning large quantities of fast-perishing produce rotted, leading to losses for producers. The World Bank estimated that, in total, African countries may have lost US$65 million due to the effect of the airspace shutdown on perishable goods.

Question 19

What was the effect of the Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland volcano on car manufacturing disruption?

Answer 19

The disruption to airfreight by the eruption highlighted how important airfreight is in supplying high-value key components to many manufacturers. The Nissan plant in Japan, for example, had to stop production of the Cube, Murano SUV and Rogue crossover models because they ran out of a critical sensor produced in Ireland. Airfreight is only used for a small quantity of high-value but vital electronic components where there are few alternative suppliers.

Question 20

What were the impacts of the Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland volcano on the transport of perishable goods?

Answer 20

There were impacts on the producers of flowers, fruit and vegetables in African countries such as Kenya, Zambia and Ghana, with delays in transportation meaning large quantities of fast-perishing produce rotten, leading to losses for producers. The World Bank estimated that, in total, African countries may have lost US$65 million due to the effect of the airspace shutdown on perishable exports.

Question 21

What was the context of the Tohoku tsunami, Japan?

Answer 21

A magnitude 9.0 earthquake in March 2011 produced a great tsunami that wreaked destruction along the Tokoku (eastern) coast of Japan, including to the Fukushima nuclear power station. It was the largest earthquake recorded in Japan and the combined impacts of the earthquake and tsunami left 15,749 dead and 2962 missing; 63 per cent of the dead were aged over 60 and over. The event eroded public trust in the Japanese government and its nuclear energy policies.
This was a very large magnitude event causing widespread deaths and large-scale destruction along the coast to properties, infrastructure and communities. It was particularly high profile because of the nuclear impact.

Question 22

What were the impacts of Tohoku, Japan’s earthquake and tsunami on costs and attitudes to nuclear energy?

Answer 22

The tsunami hit the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant on the east coast of the island of Honshu, about 200 km northeast of Tokyo, and disabled the power supply. This affected the cooling of three reactors, causing high radioactive releases. Contaminated water leaked from the plant into the Pacific Ocean and into fishing grounds.
The effects of the accident on energy security were not restricted to Japan.

Example 1: LNG price rises
The worldwide availability and affordability of liquefied natural gas (LNG) were affected by Japan’s increased demand. This had the biggest impact in the Asian market, where they had the quickest rate of increasing energy consumption.

Example 2: Public acceptability of nuclear power and rising costs
The accident itself resulted in the loss of public acceptability of nuclear power and led countries, such as Germany and Italy to immediately shut down some of their nuclear reactors or abandon plans to build new ones. The accident has also contributed to the escalating capital costs associated with the construction of new nuclear reactors because of the additional safety measures required.

Question 23

What were the impacts of the Tohoku’s earthquake and tsunami on LNG price rises?

Answer 23

The worldwide availability and affordability of liquefied natural gas (LNG) were affected by Japan’s increased demand. This had the biggest impact in the Asian market, where they had the quickest rate of increasing energy consumption.

Question 24

What were the impacts of Tohoku’s earthquake and tsunami on public acceptability of nuclear power and rising costs?

Answer 24

The accident itself resulted in the loss of public acceptability of nuclear power and led countries, such as Germany and Italy to immediately shut down some of their nuclear reactors or abandon plans to build new ones. The accident has also contributed to the escalating capital costs associated with the construction of new nuclear reactors because of the additional safety measures required.