W11: Personality and Consequential Outcome

Question 1

Can we use measures of personality to make valid inferences or predictions about theoretically relevant or practically useful outcomes?

Different type of effects (3)

Answer 1

Direct effects- from the general to the specific…
e.g., does conscientiousness predict specific instances of conscientious behaviour?

Indirect effects – ‘mediation’
e.g., via trait expressions or situation selection

Interactive/conditional effects – person x environment interactions
e.g., via differential reactivity to events/situations

Question 2

History of prediction:

Lexical Hypothesis

Answer 2

Important characteristics will, over human history, be coded in language

Impt in the sense of making predictions:
eg: who will help/hurt me.
who fun/attractive

Question 3

History of prediction:
Formal assessment of personality and abilities

Educational contexts

Answer 3

Educational contexts
Binet and Simon (1905, 1908, 1911): identification of children requiring alternate education

Development of the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) during the 1920

Question 4

History of prediction:
Formal assessment of personality and abilities

Occupational contexts
Robert Yerkes (1915)

Answer 4

Robert Yerkes (1915)
Military selection and placement

1950s-1970s: Diversification and mobility of work

Growth of Human Resources Management

Question 5

Prediction of Achievement
Job Performance

Schmidt & Hunter (1998)

Answer 5

meta-analysis of 85 years of research

Job performance typically measured in terms of supervisory ratings (but other indicators too – e.g., sales records)

Results:
B5 -> C r = .31
integrity test(C/A) r = .41

Personality a weaker predictor than measures of cognitive ability (or ‘intelligence’), but adds to the prediction of cognitive tests
Cognitive alone; r = .48
cognitive ability with C; r = .6o
Combining cognitive ability with an C/A; r = .65

Question 6

Prediction of Achievement
Job Performance

Barrick & Mount (1991, 1998):

Answer 6

Meta-analyses focussed just on the big five:
Conscientiousness predicts across all occupations: r = .20-.23
will-do criteria r = .42

Extraversion predicted performance well in two specific job arenas:
Management (.18) Sales (.15)

Question 7

Prediction of Achievement:
Job Performance

Hurtz & Donovan (2000):

Answer 7

Updated meta-analysis to check reliability of first studies…

Key findings:

1) Conscientiousness again predicts broadly in the region of r = .20
2) Agreeableness, Openness/Intellect, and (low) Neuroticism predicts performance in customer service roles
3) Extraversion and (low) Neuroticism predicts in management and sales roles

Question 8

Prediction of Achievement:

“Occupational success”
what defines:
Predictive validity for:

Answer 8

what defines: 
Various indices (e.g., Duncan Socioeconomic Index)

Typically reflect wages, education required, popular views of its desirability, worthiness, or ‘prestige’
top scorers: Doctor, Dentist, Lawyer

Predictive validity for

1) Openness/intellect: r = .18 (Sutin et al., 2009)
2) Extraversion: r = .16 (Roberts et al., 2003)
3) Conscientiousness: r = .15 (Roberts et al., 2003)

Question 9

Prediction of Achievement:

“Occupational success”

Roberts et al., 2007

Answer 9

After accounting for childhood SES, parental income, and IQ, personality predicts various indicators of occupational success (income, promotion etc.) up to 47 years later…

Question 10

Prediction of Achievement:
Creative achievement

Kaufman et al., 2015

Answer 10

Openness engagement with perceptual information
Openness -> achievement* in the arts (e.g., visual arts, music, dance, architectural design)

Intellect reflects engagement with semantic information
Intellect -> achievement* in the sciences (e.g., scientific discovery, inventions)

Question 11

Prediction of Achievement::
Educational achievement

Poropat (2009):

Answer 11

Predicting school GPA from…
Cognitive ability: r = .25
Conscientiousness: r = .22
Openness/intellect: r = .12
Agreeableness: r = .07

Of personality measures, only conscientiousness adds to prediction above cognitive ability

Question 12

Prediction of Achievement:

Choice of college major and B5

Answer 12

Extraversion
Economics, Law, Political Science, and Medicine

Neuroticism
Arts, Humanities, and Psychology

Agreeableness
Medicine, Psychology, Sciences, Arts, and Humanities

Conscientiousness
Science, Law, Economics, Engineering, Medicine, and
Psychology

Openness/Intellect
Humanities, Arts, Psychology, and Political Science

er.. so many psychology…

Question 13

Why does personality predict achievement

direct & indirect & interactive effect

Answer 13

Direct effects?
conscientiousness -> responsible
Conscientiousness predicts most strongly for effort-related criteria

Indirect effects?
choosing educational and career pathways that ‘fit’ ones personality
C-> structure/order
openness/intellect -> flexibility/creativity

Interactive effects?
responding to the demands of work
E respond well to interpersonal challenges of management roles

NB: Many of these pathways may operate simultaneously

Question 14

Why does personality predict achievement
Interactive effects Example
Extraversion:

Stewart, 1996

Answer 14

Extraverts respond more to rewards (Smillie & Wacker, 2015)

Extraversion should only predict performance in salespeople when performance is linked with rewards:

If new sales are rewarded, Extraversion will predict new sales (but not customer retention)‏
If customer retention is rewarded, Extraversion will predict customer retention (but not new sales)

Question 15

Summary 1:

Personality traits predict range of outcomes in achievement contexts

Answer 15

Conscientiousness: Broad predictor of educational and occupational achievement
Indirect effects via state expressions (e.g., study strategies)

Extraversion: achievement and choice for some work areas (management, sales, customer service)
Interactive/conditional effects of incentive structures

Also Openness (educational attainment/engagement, occupational success, creative achievement),

Agreeableness (customer service) and

(low) Neuroticism (performance)

Question 16

Impact of personality on longevity

conscientious
Martin et al., 2007

Answer 16

Variables examined:
Age of death and cause
Various health/risk behaviours (e.g., smoking)

Conscientiousness assessed over 7 decades (child, 20/30s 30/40s)

prob of death 💀
High C - ~.35
unstable C - between
low C - ~.5

Question 17

Impact of personality on longevity
Replication using peer/informant reports…
\+
female/male dif
Jackson et, al. 2015

Answer 17

Replication using peer/informant

Males rated as more conscientious in their 20s lived longer

females: lower neuroticism and higher agreeableness

Question 18

Impact of personality on longevity
Protective effect of conscientiousness

Bogg and Roberts, 2004

Answer 18

conscientiousness predicts better health and living longer

Substantial evidence suggests engagement in health-promoting behaviours

Conscientiousness predicts…
Less alcohol use, r = -.25
Less drug use, r = -.28 
Less unhealthy eating, r = -.13
Less risky driving, r = -.25
Less risky sexual behaviour, r = -.13

Question 19

Impact of personality on longevity
Conscientiousness & Health promoting behaviours:

Armon & Toker (2013)

Answer 19

Participation in periodic health checks:
DV: Odds of returning for a 2nd health check within 7 years

Conscientiousness: +ve predictor
Extraversion, openness: -ve predictors
Neuroticism: curvilinear predictor…!

Question 20

Impact of personality on longevity:

Do changes in conscientiousness predict changes in health?

Takahashi, Edmonds, Jackson, & Roberts, 2012

Answer 20

Conscientiousness was associated with preventative health behaviours and overall health at both time points

Changes in conscientiousness were associated with changes in preventative health behaviours and overall health

Changes in preventative health behaviors mediated the association between changes in conscientiousness and changes in overall health

Question 21

Predictive of Psychological wellbeing

Measures of wellbeing (incl. positive emotions, optimism, etc) also predict longevity…

Answer 21

These in turn are highly predicted by extraversion and (low) neuroticism

These links are still poorly understood…
Healthy behaviour (e.g., exercise)?
Social relationships and support?
Immune function? Cardiovascular function?
Recovery from illness?

Question 22

Impact of personality on longevity:
Disease risk:
“Type A personality”
Agreeableness

Answer 22

Type A personality”
Risk of heart disease (Friedman & Rosenman, 1974)
Hostility appears to be the ‘active ingredient’ – captured by low agreeableness…

Agreeableness
May protect against biological risk factors for cardiovascular disease,

Reduced sympathetic nervous system response to stress and frustration (Smith & Spiro, 2002)

Question 23

Personality predicts Relationships

what is actor/partner effect

Actor: self -> high predict self satisfaction
Partner: -> high predict self satisfaction

Answer 23

Personality traits predict various relationship outcomes

Dyrenforth et al. 2010:
A and C -> higher marital satisfaction in (~20,000 participants from Australia, Germany, and the UK)
Both actor and partner effects

Schmitt, 2004:
A and C -> lower rates of infidelity

Kelly & Conley, 1987:
high or low??? N -> decreased marital stability (e.g., divorce)
Both actor and partner effects

Question 24

Personality predicts Relationships

Divorce

Answer 24

Meta-analysis:

Neuroticism, (lower) conscientiousness, and (lower) agreeableness predicts divorce up to 45 years later…

Question 25

Divorce. Why?
indirect effects, via relationship dynamics

Solomon & Jackson, 2014
Details and results

Answer 25

2 potential pathways:
enduring dynamics VS Emergent Distress

Clearer support for enduring dynamics:
Personality impacts on relationship dynamics in ways that may ultimately lead to its dissolution

Example:
Low A and C via negative communication patterns

High N via negative emotionality (experiencing negative moods, perceiving situations more negatively)

Question 26

Assortive mating

birds of a feather flock together

McCrae and colleagues, 2008

Answer 26

Correlations between partners’ personality traits generally positive:

r up to .35 for Big Five domains

Generally highest for openness/intellect…

Question 27

Criminal and antisocial behaviour

A recurring role for (low) conscientiousness and agreeableness

Answer 27

1) Antisocial behaviour and aggression (Jones et al., 2011)
2) Involvement in criminal gangs (Egan & Beadman, 2011)
3) Delinquency and vandalism in Australian youths (Heaven, 1996; Mak et al., 2003)

However:
conscientiousness positively predicted ‘white collar’ criminal behaviour in a German sample (Blickle et al., 2006)

Question 28

Criminal and antisocial behaviour

A recurring role for (low) conscientiousness and agreeableness

Explanations…

Answer 28

Direct effects
e.g., aggressive behaviour is simply a state expression of low agreeableness

Indirect effects:
Agreeableness via moral disengagement
e.g., beliefs that fighting can be justified, and teasing is not harmful

Conscientiousness via poor impulse control

Question 29

Longevity
predicted by

Conscientiousness Extraversion, (low) neuroticism, and agreeablenes

Summary

Answer 29

Conscientiousness:
Indirect effects via state expressions (i.e., health promoting behaviours)

Extraversion, (low) neuroticism, and agreeableness:
Possibly via physical and psychological wellbeing

Only openness/intellect does not seem to have a clear link with longevity or health

Question 30

Personality on Political orientation

Single ‘self placement’ – liberal vs. conservative…

Multiple dimensional approaches

Answer 30

Right Wing Authoritarianism (RWA)—endorsement of:
1) Respect for traditions and social norms (traditionalism)
2) Deference to authorities and institutions (conservatism)
3) Belief in the need for coercive social control (authoritarianism)
AKA ‘Social Conservatism’

Social Dominance Orientation (SDO)—endorsement of:
hierarchies and social/group inequality
AKA ‘Economic Conservatism’

Question 31

Personality on Political orientation

Answer 31

Self identified liberals (vs. conservatives)…
Higher on openness/intellect, r ~ .20
(Somewhat) lower on conscientiousness, r ~ -.10

Sibley & Duckitt, 2008, meta-analysis:
O/Intellect -> RWA, r = -.36; SDO, r = -.16
Higher C -> RWA, r = .15
Higher A -> SDO, r = -.29

Explanation in terms of values
Valuing change (O), order/structure (C), and harmony/cooperation (A)

Question 32

Summary of implications:

Personality traits and other life outcomes

Answer 32

Agreeableness:
More positive relationship outcomes
Lower involvement in crime / antisocial behaviour
More tolerant, egalitarian (SDO)

Conscientiousness:
More positive relationship outcomes
Lower involvement in crime / antisocial behaviour
Somewhat socially conservative (e.g., respect for tradition; RWA)

Openness/Intellect:
More progressive / less socially conservative (RWA)

Question 33

Personality and consequential outcomes – do they replicate?

Soto (2019)

Answer 33

attempted to replicate 78 previously reported associations between personality traits and consequential outcomes

Results:
87% of the previously reported findings were successfully replicated

Effect sizes were approximately 75% as strong as reported in the original studies

Question 34

Theoretical /practical implications of current findings:

Theoretical implications

Answer 34

Testing theories of personality
e.g., are extraverts sensitive to reward?

Evaluating personality-based explanations
e.g., how can we explain and understand crime?

Predictive Validity

Question 35

Theoretical /practical implications of current findings:

Potential areas of application (3)

Answer 35

Behaviour change for health…
Should we seek to promote higher levels of agreeableness & conscientiousness?

Job/college selection…
Should we we include measures of conscientiousness in selection protocols?

Dating apps / services…
Matching based on openness/intellect?